Core Drivers Analysis - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift signals a potential interest rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 75% to 90% following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Powell emphasized the "peculiar balance" in the labor market, indicating a shift in focus from "anti-inflation" to "recession prevention," providing long-term support for gold [1] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, with Israeli forces entering Gaza City and the UN confirming famine in parts of Gaza, which typically increases gold's safe-haven premium [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain risks from Myanmar's tin export controls further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Market Performance - Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.22, leading to decreased preference for dollar assets [3] - Gold futures in New York broke through the key resistance level of $3,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,423.4, indicating a bullish trend with a short-term target of $3,450 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold market also showed strength, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 778.96 yuan per gram and trading volume significantly increasing to 168,900 contracts [3] - The bullish momentum in gold is expected to continue, with support levels identified at 3,350-3,355 and resistance at 3,380-3,385 for the upcoming week [3]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with domestic gold T+D prices at 774.37 RMB per gram, up 0.57% from the previous day, and international gold futures prices surpassing 3375 USD per ounce, rebounding nearly 2% from last week's low [1][3] - Geopolitical risks are escalating, particularly in the Middle East, with the Houthis launching 45 attacks on Israeli targets, leading to increased supply chain risks and a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [3][5] - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with the People's Bank of China adding 70,000 ounces in June, and nearly 43% of central banks planning to increase reserves in the next year, supporting long-term gold prices [3][5] Group 2 - The market is witnessing a heated debate over monetary policy, with expectations for a rate cut in September rising above 90%, despite warnings from St. Louis Fed President Bullard about delayed inflation impacts from tariffs [3][6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is oscillating between 3300 and 3380 USD, with a significant resistance level at 3380 USD and a support level around 3280 USD [4][6] - Gold trading platforms, such as Jinseng Precious Metals, are crucial for investors, offering features like smart alert functions that have helped investors achieve an average profit of 8% during recent market fluctuations [4][5] Group 3 - The acceleration of the global central bank de-dollarization process is expected to lead to over 500 tons of gold purchases in the first half of 2025, with emerging markets like China and India driving demand [5][6] - The hydrogen revolution is anticipated to significantly increase platinum demand, with the platinum market expected to enter a three-year shortage period starting in 2025 [5] - Jinseng Precious Metals offers a zero-commission policy and multi-market trading capabilities, allowing investors to engage in risk-free arbitrage when price differentials exceed 5 RMB per gram [5][6] Group 4 - Upcoming U.S. CPI data is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with core CPI rising by 0.3%, which could influence Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and subsequently gold prices [6][7] - Investment strategies suggest a buy-low, sell-high approach within the 3320-3380 USD range, with specific support and resistance levels outlined for trading [6][7] - The current gold market is at a critical juncture characterized by rising geopolitical risks and diverging policy expectations, with Jinseng Precious Metals providing diverse solutions for investors with varying risk appetites [7]

Group 1 - Current spot gold price opened at $3370.38 per ounce, with a daily high of $3370.43 and a low of $3344.71, reflecting a slight decline of 0.7% [1][2] - The market is at a critical juncture between "geopolitical conflict risk" and "hawkish Federal Reserve policies," leading to a stalemate in gold prices [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing deterioration of the Middle East situation, including an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, has led to a marginal decrease in safe-haven demand for gold [2][3] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the market shows signs of fatigue regarding risk, with gold futures in New York down 0.82% and Shanghai gold T+D down 0.63% [2][3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a shift in the dot plot indicating a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 [3][5] - Market participants are still betting on a 62% probability of a rate cut in September, despite the Fed's hawkish stance [3][5] Group 4 - Economic data shows a mixed picture, with initial jobless claims reaching 245,000, the highest in eight months, indicating labor market weakness, while manufacturing and services PMIs suggest economic resilience [5] - The CPI data indicates that inflation pressures may not have fully materialized, but rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions could lead to imported inflation [5] Group 5 - Technical analysis indicates a struggle between bulls and bears, with gold prices facing resistance at the $3400 level and support around the 20-day moving average at $3347 [6][8] - The hourly chart shows a sideways movement in the $3361-$3379 range, with potential for a downward move if the price falls below $3361 [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical risks and expectations of monetary policy easing, leading to a breakthrough of key resistance levels in the gold market [1][3][4]. Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has worsened due to Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting Iran to threaten retaliation [3]. - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including drone attacks and military deployments in Eastern Europe, has increased geopolitical uncertainty, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3]. Monetary Policy Expectations - Weak economic data from the U.S. has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with a projected cumulative cut of 50 basis points this year [4][5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a cooling inflationary pressure, contributing to the market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Technical Analysis - Gold has established a support level above $3,380, with a bullish "engulfing" pattern observed in recent trading sessions [6]. - The price has successfully broken through the $3,400 mark, indicating strong upward momentum, supported by technical indicators such as the RSI [8]. Trading Strategy - The combination of geopolitical tensions and monetary easing expectations is expected to drive gold prices higher, with a focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting for further policy guidance [11]. - A pullback to around $3,390 is seen as an ideal entry point for investors, with long-term structural support for gold prices anticipated from central bank purchases and de-dollarization trends [11].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][5][8] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of April 30, the London gold spot price closed at $3,307.04 per ounce, a 6.1% increase from the beginning of the month, but down 6.5% from the historical peak of $3,429.74 on April 22 [1] - The New York gold futures contract closed at $3,317.60 per ounce, reflecting a premium of about $10 over the spot price, indicating market concerns over future inflation [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures contract was priced at 782.62 yuan per gram, with a premium of 9.79 yuan per gram over international prices, driven by strong domestic demand [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - HSBC raised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,015 per ounce, based on expectations of a potential 75-100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5][8] - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could reach $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025 and may exceed $4,000 in 2026, citing de-dollarization and stagflation risks as long-term support for gold [7] - The World Gold Council emphasizes the importance of geopolitical risks and the trend of de-dollarization in enhancing gold's monetary attributes, while cautioning against short-term overvaluation risks [7][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The correlation between gold and A-shares has decreased significantly, making gold an ideal tool for hedging against stock market volatility [6] - Investors are advised to consider gold ETFs or low-fee linked funds to avoid storage costs associated with physical gold while capturing short-term price fluctuations [8] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases are expected to provide structural support for gold prices, despite potential short-term corrections [6][7]