Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "high rebound and stabilization" pattern, with spot gold struggling to break the key resistance level of $3,760 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,749.05 per ounce, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day [2]. Group 1: Support Factors - Central bank liquidity release provides a buffer, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 600 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, signaling a commitment to stabilize growth and indirectly lowering the cost of holding gold [3]. - The trend of central banks in emerging markets continuing to purchase gold is expected to lead to over 1,000 tons of gold bought globally in 2024, with this trend persisting into 2025, providing fundamental support for gold prices [3]. - The physical consumption market is showing resilience, with leading domestic gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising prices to 1,098 yuan per gram and surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram respectively, indicating strong consumer demand despite high gold prices [4]. Group 2: Pressuring Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals are causing market fluctuations, with mixed expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts in November, leading to a short-term stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, which suppresses upward movement in gold prices [5]. - Technical resistance is significant at the $3,760 per ounce level, which coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level since gold's rise from $3,300, compounded by selling pressure from previously trapped positions [6]. - The low level of 550,000 open contracts in COMEX gold indicates that institutional funds are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding breaking through key price levels, lacking the momentum to push gold prices higher [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a strong oscillation pattern due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on September 5, adjusting the scope of import tariffs, which will take effect on September 8 [5] - The executive order exempts various metals, including tungsten and uranium, from the global tariff system, as well as all forms of gold [5] - The order also states that zero tariffs will apply to products that cannot be grown, mined, or produced in sufficient quantities in the U.S. [5] Group 2 - OPEC announced on October 7 that eight major oil-producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [6] - The countries involved include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, who held an online meeting to discuss the international oil market [6] - The decision to adjust production is based on stable global economic expectations and low oil inventory levels [6]

Group 1 - New York gold futures prices opened lower and continued to decline, currently at $3629.2 per ounce, with a decrease of 0.66% [2] - President Trump signed an executive order adjusting the scope of import tariffs, effective from September 8, which includes exemptions for various metals and forms of gold [3] - Major oil-producing countries, including OPEC and non-OPEC members, have decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, citing stable global economic expectations and low oil inventories [5] Group 2 - The same group of countries increased production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [6] - Trump indicated readiness to implement a second phase of sanctions against Russia, although specific actions were not detailed [4]

Core Drivers Analysis - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift signals a potential interest rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 75% to 90% following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Powell emphasized the "peculiar balance" in the labor market, indicating a shift in focus from "anti-inflation" to "recession prevention," providing long-term support for gold [1] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, with Israeli forces entering Gaza City and the UN confirming famine in parts of Gaza, which typically increases gold's safe-haven premium [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain risks from Myanmar's tin export controls further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Market Performance - Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.22, leading to decreased preference for dollar assets [3] - Gold futures in New York broke through the key resistance level of $3,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,423.4, indicating a bullish trend with a short-term target of $3,450 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold market also showed strength, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 778.96 yuan per gram and trading volume significantly increasing to 168,900 contracts [3] - The bullish momentum in gold is expected to continue, with support levels identified at 3,350-3,355 and resistance at 3,380-3,385 for the upcoming week [3]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with domestic gold T+D prices at 774.37 RMB per gram, up 0.57% from the previous day, and international gold futures prices surpassing 3375 USD per ounce, rebounding nearly 2% from last week's low [1][3] - Geopolitical risks are escalating, particularly in the Middle East, with the Houthis launching 45 attacks on Israeli targets, leading to increased supply chain risks and a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [3][5] - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves for eight consecutive months, with the People's Bank of China adding 70,000 ounces in June, and nearly 43% of central banks planning to increase reserves in the next year, supporting long-term gold prices [3][5] Group 2 - The market is witnessing a heated debate over monetary policy, with expectations for a rate cut in September rising above 90%, despite warnings from St. Louis Fed President Bullard about delayed inflation impacts from tariffs [3][6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is oscillating between 3300 and 3380 USD, with a significant resistance level at 3380 USD and a support level around 3280 USD [4][6] - Gold trading platforms, such as Jinseng Precious Metals, are crucial for investors, offering features like smart alert functions that have helped investors achieve an average profit of 8% during recent market fluctuations [4][5] Group 3 - The acceleration of the global central bank de-dollarization process is expected to lead to over 500 tons of gold purchases in the first half of 2025, with emerging markets like China and India driving demand [5][6] - The hydrogen revolution is anticipated to significantly increase platinum demand, with the platinum market expected to enter a three-year shortage period starting in 2025 [5] - Jinseng Precious Metals offers a zero-commission policy and multi-market trading capabilities, allowing investors to engage in risk-free arbitrage when price differentials exceed 5 RMB per gram [5][6] Group 4 - Upcoming U.S. CPI data is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, with core CPI rising by 0.3%, which could influence Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and subsequently gold prices [6][7] - Investment strategies suggest a buy-low, sell-high approach within the 3320-3380 USD range, with specific support and resistance levels outlined for trading [6][7] - The current gold market is at a critical juncture characterized by rising geopolitical risks and diverging policy expectations, with Jinseng Precious Metals providing diverse solutions for investors with varying risk appetites [7]

Group 1 - Current spot gold price opened at $3370.38 per ounce, with a daily high of $3370.43 and a low of $3344.71, reflecting a slight decline of 0.7% [1][2] - The market is at a critical juncture between "geopolitical conflict risk" and "hawkish Federal Reserve policies," leading to a stalemate in gold prices [1][3] Group 2 - The ongoing deterioration of the Middle East situation, including an Israeli airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities and subsequent Iranian missile retaliation, has led to a marginal decrease in safe-haven demand for gold [2][3] - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the market shows signs of fatigue regarding risk, with gold futures in New York down 0.82% and Shanghai gold T+D down 0.63% [2][3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, with a shift in the dot plot indicating a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2025 [3][5] - Market participants are still betting on a 62% probability of a rate cut in September, despite the Fed's hawkish stance [3][5] Group 4 - Economic data shows a mixed picture, with initial jobless claims reaching 245,000, the highest in eight months, indicating labor market weakness, while manufacturing and services PMIs suggest economic resilience [5] - The CPI data indicates that inflation pressures may not have fully materialized, but rising oil prices due to Middle East tensions could lead to imported inflation [5] Group 5 - Technical analysis indicates a struggle between bulls and bears, with gold prices facing resistance at the $3400 level and support around the 20-day moving average at $3347 [6][8] - The hourly chart shows a sideways movement in the $3361-$3379 range, with potential for a downward move if the price falls below $3361 [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by a combination of geopolitical risks and expectations of monetary policy easing, leading to a breakthrough of key resistance levels in the gold market [1][3][4]. Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has worsened due to Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting Iran to threaten retaliation [3]. - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including drone attacks and military deployments in Eastern Europe, has increased geopolitical uncertainty, boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold [3]. Monetary Policy Expectations - Weak economic data from the U.S. has strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with a projected cumulative cut of 50 basis points this year [4][5]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data indicates a cooling inflationary pressure, contributing to the market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Technical Analysis - Gold has established a support level above $3,380, with a bullish "engulfing" pattern observed in recent trading sessions [6]. - The price has successfully broken through the $3,400 mark, indicating strong upward momentum, supported by technical indicators such as the RSI [8]. Trading Strategy - The combination of geopolitical tensions and monetary easing expectations is expected to drive gold prices higher, with a focus on the upcoming FOMC meeting for further policy guidance [11]. - A pullback to around $3,390 is seen as an ideal entry point for investors, with long-term structural support for gold prices anticipated from central bank purchases and de-dollarization trends [11].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][5][8] Group 1: Gold Price Movements - As of April 30, the London gold spot price closed at $3,307.04 per ounce, a 6.1% increase from the beginning of the month, but down 6.5% from the historical peak of $3,429.74 on April 22 [1] - The New York gold futures contract closed at $3,317.60 per ounce, reflecting a premium of about $10 over the spot price, indicating market concerns over future inflation [3] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures contract was priced at 782.62 yuan per gram, with a premium of 9.79 yuan per gram over international prices, driven by strong domestic demand [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - HSBC raised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,015 per ounce, based on expectations of a potential 75-100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5][8] - Morgan Stanley predicts gold prices could reach $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025 and may exceed $4,000 in 2026, citing de-dollarization and stagflation risks as long-term support for gold [7] - The World Gold Council emphasizes the importance of geopolitical risks and the trend of de-dollarization in enhancing gold's monetary attributes, while cautioning against short-term overvaluation risks [7][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategies - The correlation between gold and A-shares has decreased significantly, making gold an ideal tool for hedging against stock market volatility [6] - Investors are advised to consider gold ETFs or low-fee linked funds to avoid storage costs associated with physical gold while capturing short-term price fluctuations [8] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank gold purchases are expected to provide structural support for gold prices, despite potential short-term corrections [6][7]