【要闻速递】 今日周五(1月9日)亚盘时段，纽约金(期货 2 月合约)最新报价为 4481.00 美元 / 盎司，较昨日收盘价下跌 6.90 美元，跌幅 0.16%。日内价格区间为 4485-4493.7 美元 / 盎司，今日开盘价 4489.30美元 / 盎司，高 于昨日收盘价 4487.90美元 / 盎司，当前处于交易中状态。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 目前交易员普遍押注美联储本月将暂停降息，除非就业人数转为负增长或失业率升至4.7%以上，否则 该预期难以动摇。此外，由于非农调查回复率长期结构性下滑，数据不确定性显著增加，叠加报告公布 约90分钟后美国最高法院将对特朗普"紧急"关税作出裁决，可能分散市场注意力，因此本次数据引发的 即时波动或相对有限。分析人士提醒，进入2026年后，市场应更审慎地看待基于调查的经济数据，并结 合就业、薪资、消费等多维度指标综合判断美国经济状况。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 2月黄金期货(GC26G)于2026年1月9日收盘报4436.00美元/盎司，较前一交易日4475.6美元显著回落，确 认此前日期错误，市场进入短期修正阶段;价格已有效跌破布林带上轨，RSI回落至5 ...

类似随意行径在全年政策中屡见不鲜：贸易政策摇摆不定，一面无差别加征关税，一面又频频豁免，甚 至拟以"关税分红"换取民意支持；外交上则频放狂言，从扬言"取得"格陵兰岛到声称"收回"巴拿马运 河，被前外交官直斥"离谱"。此外，美国以禁毒为名在加勒比海开展军事行动，却始终未出示证据，被 指实为地缘干涉的借口。 知名人士指出，美国政策的任意性与不可预测性正使其日渐孤立。有分析认为，特朗普政府正在回 归"19世纪式的帝国主义"，这种扩张姿态可能进一步激化矛盾，将美国推向国际社会的边缘。 今日周二（12月30日）亚盘时段，纽约金期货最新报价4355.20美元/盎司，较昨日上涨4.40美元/盎司， 涨幅0.10%，日内价格最高至4366.00美元/盎司，最低为4338.80美元/盎司，昨日收盘价4350.20美元/盎 司，今日开盘价4350.30美元/盎司。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美国劳工部近期公布的11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，低于预期及前值。然而，由于10月联邦政府停摆导致数 据缺失，多项关键分项被默认为零，致使当前通胀统计严重失真，被业内批评为"漏洞百出"，其作为政 策参考的可信度存疑。 【 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - Last week, the gold price continued to rise, with New York gold breaking through $4,500 and Shanghai gold breaking through the 1,000-yuan mark. After the meetings of the US and Japanese central banks ended, market liquidity recovered, and the US dollar index remained weak, which was positive for the gold price. In the long run, although the gold price has broken through the late-October high, its overall performance is far inferior to other precious metals and copper, mainly due to the high short-term market risk appetite and the decline in the safe-haven demand for gold. Before the New Year's Day holiday, continuous attention should be paid to the long-short game at the $4,500 mark of New York gold, and beware of the risk of a high-level pullback before the holiday [5][21] Group 2: Market Review 2.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing prices [9] 2.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | December 26 | December 19 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,562.00 | $4,368.70 | 4.42% | | COMEX Silver | $79.68 | $67.40 | 18.22% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 1,016.30 yuan | 979.90 yuan | 3.71% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 18,319.00 yuan | 15,376.00 yuan | 19.14% | | US Dollar Index | 98.03 | 98.72 | -0.69% | | USD/CNH | 7.00 | 7.03 | -0.41% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.91 | 1.92 | -0.01 | | S&P 500 | 6,929.94 | 6,834.50 | 1.40% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $56.93 | $56.65 | 0.49% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 57.26 | 64.82 | -11.67% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 55.48 | 63.73 | -12.95% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,071.13 tons | 1,052.54 tons | 18.59 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 492.64 tons | 491.82 tons | 0.82 tons | [10] Group 3: Liquidity Recovery after Japanese Yen Interest Rate Hike - After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, the market showed a "boot landing" situation, with a significant recovery in short-term liquidity. The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling to the 98 mark, which was positive for the gold price [12] Group 4: Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1,563.77 tons, an increase of 19.41 tons from the previous week. After the Japanese yen interest rate hike, precious metals generally rose, with silver's increase significantly larger than that of gold, and the gold-silver ratio continued to weaken, dropping below 60 last week [16][18]

12月25日，沪金主力暂报1008.76元/克，跌幅0.39%，今日沪金主力开盘价1013.94元/克，截至目前最高 1014.28元/克，最低1003.12元/克。 【宏观消息】 【黄金期货行情表现】 【机构观点】 昨日金价冲高回落，但沪金仍处于1000元关口上方，纽约金处于4500美元关口上方。短期推动金价上行 的主要因素是宏观共性的，这主要体现在近期无论是有色还是贵金属均出现明显上行趋势，尤其是白银 和铂钯，涨幅明显。我们认为本轮上行的主要推力来自于美日两大央行的货币政策相继落地，资产普遍 再度重拾涨势。拉长周期来看，自10月底中美元首釜山会晤后，中美关系缓和，金价承压明显，维持高 位震荡运行。如今宏观宽松推动资产普涨推动金价向上突破，短期海外双旦假期，市场缺乏国际市场指 引，国内或趋于谨慎，金价可能呈现高位震荡态势。 近日，在金价持续走强的带动下，配置资金正在加快通过ETF渠道布局黄金，黄金ETF规模再次快速扩 张，多只产品单日增量处于年内较高水平。从规模增长结构看，申赎净流入与金价上涨带来的净值抬升 贡献较为均衡，显示资金配置行为与行情变化同步发力。 机构人士分析称，在全球宏观环境不确定性上升、美债 ...

全球金融市场迎来重要波动，美国最新经济数据释放关键信号，11月消费者价格指数（CPI）意外低于 市场预期，同时失业率攀升至阶段性高位，受此影响，纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格再创历史新高，市 场对美联储货币政策转向的预期进一步升温。 具体数据显示，美国劳工部公布的11月CPI同比上涨2.7%，显著低于经济学家普遍预期的3.1%，这一增 速为2021年初以来最低水平；核心CPI（剔除食品和能源价格）同比上涨2.6%，较9月的3.0%大幅放 缓，显示通胀压力持续缓解。与此同时，美国11月失业率意外升至4.6%，触及2021年9月以来最高水 平，就业市场呈现边际疲软态势。数据出炉后，金融市场迅速反应，美元指数短线下挫至98.167，10年 期美国国债收益率下跌2.2个基点至4.13%，而纽约金期货价格短线上扬，最高触及4343美元/盎司的历 史新高。 消息面上，近期宏观经济数据持续回暖，叠加政策面的积极引导，为市场提供了支撑。同时，海外市场 隔夜表现平稳，也为A股开盘营造了相对友好的外部环境。机构分析指出，当前市场处于震荡修复阶 段，短期关注政策发力方向及业绩确定性较强的板块，中长期可布局高景气赛道中的优质龙头企业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged dramatically, surpassing $4,000 per ounce and reaching a peak of $4,266.8 per ounce on October 16, 2025, while silver has experienced a "short squeeze" in London, with spot silver prices exceeding $52.97 per ounce, marking an increase of over 12% this month and over 80% year-to-date [2][3]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - The recent widening price gap between London spot silver and New York COMEX silver indicates a tight demand in the London market, with liquidity issues leading to a short squeeze scenario [3]. - The total holdings of major overseas silver ETFs increased from 24,957 tons on February 6 to 28,484 tons by October 13, a rise of 14.13%, while the LBMA silver inventory was only 24,581 tons as of September, highlighting a significant shortage in physical silver [3][4]. - The London market is facing a liquidity crisis due to inventory transfers, with free-flowing silver stocks dropping from approximately 850 million ounces to less than 200 million ounces over the past six years [4]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Speculation - The strong industrial demand for silver, driven by developments in renewable energy and AI, is contributing to a supply-demand gap, exacerbated by speculative investments in silver as gold prices rise [5]. - The upcoming delivery of the COMEX silver 2510 contract by October 31 is a focal point for market participants, with concerns that ongoing tightness in the London market could further elevate silver prices [5][6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Regulation - Historical instances of similar market conditions, such as the Hunt brothers' manipulation in the late 1970s, suggest that exchanges may intervene by adjusting margin requirements or limiting trading to prevent excessive speculation [6]. - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) is actively monitoring the situation and may implement measures to alleviate current market tensions [6]. Group 4: Future Price Outlook - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could continue to support silver prices, as lower rates typically weaken the dollar and enhance the appeal of silver as a safe-haven asset [8][9]. - The ongoing supply constraints and increasing investment demand for silver suggest that prices may continue to rise, with the current market dynamics favoring a bullish outlook for both silver and gold [9].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "high rebound and stabilization" pattern, with spot gold struggling to break the key resistance level of $3,760 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3,749.05 per ounce, a slight increase of 0.35% from the previous day [2]. Group 1: Support Factors - Central bank liquidity release provides a buffer, with the People's Bank of China conducting a 600 billion yuan one-year MLF operation, signaling a commitment to stabilize growth and indirectly lowering the cost of holding gold [3]. - The trend of central banks in emerging markets continuing to purchase gold is expected to lead to over 1,000 tons of gold bought globally in 2024, with this trend persisting into 2025, providing fundamental support for gold prices [3]. - The physical consumption market is showing resilience, with leading domestic gold retailers like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang raising prices to 1,098 yuan per gram and surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram respectively, indicating strong consumer demand despite high gold prices [4]. Group 2: Pressuring Factors - The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals are causing market fluctuations, with mixed expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts in November, leading to a short-term stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, which suppresses upward movement in gold prices [5]. - Technical resistance is significant at the $3,760 per ounce level, which coincides with a Fibonacci retracement level since gold's rise from $3,300, compounded by selling pressure from previously trapped positions [6]. - The low level of 550,000 open contracts in COMEX gold indicates that institutional funds are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding breaking through key price levels, lacking the momentum to push gold prices higher [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a strong oscillation pattern due to the interplay of bullish and bearish factors [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on September 5, adjusting the scope of import tariffs, which will take effect on September 8 [5] - The executive order exempts various metals, including tungsten and uranium, from the global tariff system, as well as all forms of gold [5] - The order also states that zero tariffs will apply to products that cannot be grown, mined, or produced in sufficient quantities in the U.S. [5] Group 2 - OPEC announced on October 7 that eight major oil-producing countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [6] - The countries involved include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, who held an online meeting to discuss the international oil market [6] - The decision to adjust production is based on stable global economic expectations and low oil inventory levels [6]

Group 1 - New York gold futures prices opened lower and continued to decline, currently at $3629.2 per ounce, with a decrease of 0.66% [2] - President Trump signed an executive order adjusting the scope of import tariffs, effective from September 8, which includes exemptions for various metals and forms of gold [3] - Major oil-producing countries, including OPEC and non-OPEC members, have decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, citing stable global economic expectations and low oil inventories [5] Group 2 - The same group of countries increased production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [6] - Trump indicated readiness to implement a second phase of sanctions against Russia, although specific actions were not detailed [4]

Core Drivers Analysis - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift signals a potential interest rate cut in September, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising from 75% to 90% following Chairman Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting [1] - Powell emphasized the "peculiar balance" in the labor market, indicating a shift in focus from "anti-inflation" to "recession prevention," providing long-term support for gold [1] Geopolitical Risks - The situation in the Middle East has deteriorated, with Israeli forces entering Gaza City and the UN confirming famine in parts of Gaza, which typically increases gold's safe-haven premium [2] - Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and supply chain risks from Myanmar's tin export controls further enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Market Performance - Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index fell from a high of 98.22, leading to decreased preference for dollar assets [3] - Gold futures in New York broke through the key resistance level of $3,400 per ounce, reaching a high of $3,423.4, indicating a bullish trend with a short-term target of $3,450 per ounce [3] - Domestic gold market also showed strength, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 778.96 yuan per gram and trading volume significantly increasing to 168,900 contracts [3] - The bullish momentum in gold is expected to continue, with support levels identified at 3,350-3,355 and resistance at 3,380-3,385 for the upcoming week [3]