Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about U.S. equities and bonds despite economic slowdown and high policy uncertainty, predicting a weaker dollar in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley expects U.S. assets to outperform global markets until mid-2026 due to easing tariff threats and reduced recession risks, alongside substantial monetary easing and regulatory relief [1][13]. - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 6,500 points by Q2 2024, representing a 9% increase from current levels [1][2]. - The report indicates that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to decline to 3.45%, providing approximately 13% total returns for fixed-income investors [2]. Group 2: Currency and Dollar Outlook - The dollar index is anticipated to depreciate by 9% to 91 by mid-2026, with the euro expected to rise to 1.25 against the dollar and the yen strengthening to 130 [3][6]. - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the era of a strong dollar may be ending due to diminishing growth and yield advantages of the U.S. compared to other G10 economies [6][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Timing - The report highlights the importance of timing in investment decisions amid increasing policy uncertainty, suggesting that investors should remain flexible to seize opportunities arising from policy changes [5][15]. - Key policy changes to watch include tariff policies, fiscal policies related to tax cuts, financial regulation impacts from Basel III, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15][17]. Group 4: Global Investment Trends - Despite concerns about diminishing demand for U.S. assets, foreign holdings of U.S. dollar-denominated bonds have reached record highs, indicating continued interest in high-quality dollar assets [10][13]. - The report notes that the market size of U.S. dollar assets remains unmatched, with approximately $50 trillion in investable stock market capitalization, significantly larger than Europe’s market [13].

以价值投资为基石,用平衡风险和仓位 控制且通过动态调整把握时机, 为财富 保驾护航! 近期A股市场处于横盘震荡中,资金也在寻找新的热点作 为突破口带动市场，在震荡市的行情下对于投资者来说, 如何选择适合自己的投资风格和投资理念?如何进行股票 的选股、仓位控制和风险评估?面对这些问题,本期投顾 访谈栏目特地邀请了"才财财"股票池投顾服务产品主创来 自重庆分公司重庆群慧路证券营业部投资顾问盛才老师, 与我们一道解码市场,以下是本次访谈的精华要点。 主创简介 "才财财"股票池主创 S0900619070121 2017年加入申万宏源证券,2020年开始 进行一对一投顾签约服务,2024年上线 股票池投顾服务产品"才财财"。 Q: 如果对自己的投资理念总结一句话,您觉得什么话最贴 切? A: 以价值投资为基石,用平衡风险和仓位控制且通过动态 调整把握时机,为财富保驾护航! 秉承稳健的投资风格,打造出自己的一套成熟交易 体系。 让我们与菁英投顾 才财财"主创 盛才 进行一场关于投资的深度对话 投资理念 Q: 您觉得何种风格的投资者会比较契合您的投资理念? A: 无暇关注市场动态、没有自己的交易体系且投资分析能 力较弱的 ...