欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 作者 | Ray Dalio 来源 | 华尔街见闻 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 桥水基金创始人达利欧在5日发布的年度复盘中指出，2025年最大的投资故事不是美股强劲表现，而是货币价值的剧烈变化和资产配 置的全球性转移。他认为，美国股市的高回报很大程度上是法定货币贬值带来的"计价幻觉"，黄金才是真正的赢家。 ← Article T+ Reply 7 ( " " Rav Dalio @RavDalio RAY DALL 2025 | | | Though the facts and returns are indisputable, I see things differently from most others. While most people see US stocks and particularly US AI stocks to be the best investments and hence the biggest investment story of 2025, it is indisputably true that the biggest ret ...

格隆汇12月16日｜根据美国银行最新发布的全球基金经理调查，投资者在12月减持了欧元。投资者还减 持了债券和医疗保健类股票，同时增持了原材料、科技股和美国股票。调查还显示，净13%的投资者认 为欧元被低估，这一比例与上月调查结果持平。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses how the U.S. benefits from the dollar's unique status in the global economy, allowing it to easily profit from international trade [1][4][18] - It highlights the historical context of the dollar's dominance, tracing it back to the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944, which established the dollar's pivotal role in the international monetary system [18][20][22] Group 1: Dollar's Unique Position - The dollar allows the U.S. to run trade deficits without the same consequences faced by other countries, as it can simply print more money to cover its deficits [4][9] - Other countries exchange their goods for U.S. dollars, which are printed at a very low cost, creating a system where the U.S. gains valuable products in return for cheap currency [7][9] - The dollar's dominance in international trade means that countries often prefer to use it for transactions, even when trading among themselves, due to established practices and reduced risks [10][12][14] Group 2: Historical Context - The Bretton Woods Conference established a system where the dollar was pegged to gold, solidifying its status as the world's primary reserve currency [18][20] - Post-World War II, the U.S. held a significant share of global economic power, which contributed to the acceptance of the dollar's central role in international trade [20][22] - Despite the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, the dollar's dominance has persisted, with over 60% of global foreign exchange reserves held in dollars [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need to maintain an overweight position in gold and Chinese technology stocks while reducing exposure to commodities and dollar assets as the market trends evolve in 2026 [2][8] - The article identifies four key factors that could potentially alter the bullish trends of stocks and gold in 2026: economic growth turning, tightening policies, high valuations, and geopolitical shocks [4][42] - Historical analysis shows that the U.S. stock market has a long bullish phase, while Chinese stocks experience more frequent bull-bear switches, making the timing of market tops more critical for Chinese stocks [3][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the importance of accurately interpreting economic and policy signals to predict market tops, noting that signals from economic and policy dimensions are generally more reliable than those from liquidity, earnings, and valuation [14][28] - For gold, the article highlights that the key determinant for its market top is the Federal Reserve's policy, with historical data showing that four out of five gold bull markets peaked when the Fed began tightening [31][32] - The current economic environment is characterized by a weak recovery in China and a potential stagflation scenario in the U.S., which could support the continuation of the stock bull market while posing risks to the gold bull market [44]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Nomura expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in December, citing resilient employment indicators despite government shutdown impacts [1] - The firm believes that recent strong rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell supports the view that the Fed may pause rate cuts after two consecutive reductions [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - UBS analysts indicate that gold prices are in an upward trend, with expectations for a stable period before further increases [2] - Citi forecasts copper prices to rise to an average of $12,000 per ton by Q2 2026, driven by a bullish outlook despite current weak physical demand [3] Group 3: Stock Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts that U.S. stocks will underperform compared to emerging markets over the next decade, with a projected annual return of 6.5% for the S&P 500 [4] - Emerging markets are expected to yield a stronger annual return of 10.9%, driven by robust earnings growth in China and India [4] Group 4: Currency and Reserve Management - Standard Chartered notes a gradual reduction in global reserve managers' reliance on the U.S. dollar, with a shift towards a broader range of currencies [5] - The bank suggests that this diversification indicates a weakening structural demand for U.S. assets, although short-term pressure on the dollar remains limited [5] Group 5: Bond Market Insights - Deutsche Bank analysts predict that increased bond issuance in the U.S. and Europe will lead to higher risk premiums and steeper yield curves [6] - The bank forecasts that by the end of 2026, the yield on 10-year German bonds will reach 3%, while U.S. 10-year bonds will hit 4.5% [6] Group 6: Currency Outlook - ING analysts expect the dollar to decline next year due to lower hedging costs from anticipated Fed rate cuts, which may increase the hedging ratio for U.S. assets [7] - The euro is projected to rise to 1.22 by Q4 2026, supported by expectations of accelerated economic growth in the Eurozone [7] Group 7: Domestic Industry Insights - CITIC Securities highlights the competitive advantage of the domestic energy storage industry, predicting significant growth in global energy storage installations by 2025 [8] - The firm recommends focusing on leading companies in the energy storage supply chain, particularly in battery cells and system integration [8] Group 8: Pharmaceutical Sector - CITIC Securities continues to favor the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting investment in companies driven by innovation and international expansion [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in core components and the impact of new policies on the sector [9] Group 9: New Materials Sector - CITIC Securities identifies potential trading opportunities in the new materials sector, particularly in AI materials and hydrogen energy, driven by policy and performance catalysts [10] - The firm encourages active investment in high-growth industries and quality segments within the new materials space [10] Group 10: Banking Sector Performance - Galaxy Securities notes that banks are maintaining strong mid-term dividend payouts, with stable earnings supported by net interest income improvements [11] - The report highlights the positive impact of policy measures on credit structure optimization and the long-term transformation of the banking industry [11]

Core Insights - The U.S. market continues to attract global capital despite external challenges, with foreign investors net buying U.S. securities reaching a historic high of $311.1 billion in May 2025, significantly up from $14.2 billion in April [1][5][15] - Over the past 12 months, net foreign capital inflow approached $1.76 trillion, nearing the peak of $1.4 trillion observed in July 2023, indicating a strong reliance on U.S. markets [3][11][15] - The resilience of foreign investors mirrors that of U.S. consumers, showcasing a robust confidence in the U.S. economy despite trade tensions and market volatility [3][11][17] Foreign Investment Trends - In 2024, foreign direct investment in the U.S. increased by $332.1 billion, bringing the total stock to $5.71 trillion, primarily driven by the manufacturing and financial sectors [5][15] - Despite tariff policies causing initial market disruptions, net capital inflow remained strong, with foreign holdings of U.S. securities rebounding to $26.9 trillion by 2024, an increase of $2 trillion from June 2023 [5][11] - By June 2024, foreign holdings of U.S. securities reached $31.288 trillion, with equities accounting for $16.988 trillion, indicating continued confidence in U.S. assets [5][11] Market Resilience and Investor Behavior - The U.S. market's depth and liquidity make it an attractive destination for global investors, who are willing to endure volatility in exchange for stable returns [5][11][15] - Analysts suggest that the high threshold for capital flight from the U.S. indicates a strong foundational economy, with data showing that even amidst tariff threats, investors have not significantly divested from U.S. stocks and bonds [3][11][15] - The overall market resilience is reflected in the quick recovery of indices following initial declines due to tariff announcements, reinforcing the notion that the U.S. remains a safe haven for investment [11][13][15] Expert Opinions - Experts like Robin Brooks argue that predictions of the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative are premature, as evidenced by the strong capital inflow data [3][11][17] - Concerns about brand damage due to trade wars have not deterred capital from flowing into the U.S., with many analysts affirming the enduring appeal of U.S. assets [7][11][17] - The consensus among experts is that the U.S. continues to provide a stable investment environment that is unmatched by other markets, solidifying its position as a primary destination for global capital [11][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in global investor behavior towards purchasing U.S. assets while simultaneously hedging against the risk of a declining dollar, indicating a significant change in investment strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Trends - Global investors are increasingly buying U.S. stocks and bonds while using derivatives to hedge against further depreciation of the dollar, with Deutsche Bank noting that the inflow into dollar-hedged ETFs has surpassed non-hedged ETFs for the first time in a decade [1][2]. - The anticipated new wave of dollar hedging could reach $1 trillion, restoring the hedging ratio of U.S. stock and bond investments to levels seen over the past decade [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The simultaneous rise in U.S. stock markets and the dollar's decline can be attributed to hedging operations that involve shorting major reserve currencies, with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve reinforcing this trend [2][3]. - The dollar's role as a traditional safe-haven asset has been challenged, particularly following the market turmoil caused by Trump's tariff policies, leading to a shift in investor preference towards currencies like the Swiss franc, euro, and yen [3][4]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - Major financial institutions, including State Street Bank and Deutsche Bank, believe that hedging operations will exert downward pressure on the dollar's performance, especially in light of the European Central Bank maintaining interest rates and potential rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [3][4]. - Foreign investors currently hold approximately $20 trillion in U.S. stocks and $14 trillion in U.S. bonds, indicating a strong preference for U.S. assets despite the hedging activities [4][5]. Group 4: Hedging Strategies - The hedging ratio for U.S. assets held by foreign investors has decreased from 70% in mid-2023 to about 56%, suggesting a potential increase in hedging activities as market conditions evolve [5]. - Some fund managers, however, are not significantly increasing their hedging positions, anticipating that the probability of a substantial dollar decline remains low under a gradual rate-cutting scenario by the Federal Reserve [5][6].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve meeting may act as a catalyst for a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, especially given its recent consolidation since early July [1] - Concerns arise that the meeting could trigger a "news sell-off" due to heightened market bubbles, potentially limiting upside and exacerbating downside trading [1] - The US 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has achieved its highest percentile return since April 8, indicating a fatigue in current stock and fixed income levels [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The US stock market is rising, led by technology stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing its best single-day gain in nearly two years [2] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.4%, with consumer goods and banking stocks performing well, while healthcare stocks lagged [2] Group 3: Bond Market Trends - US bond yields have decreased ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [3] - European sovereign bond yields also fell, with strong demand for corporate bonds [4] - Investment-grade corporate bonds are at their highest level of technical overbought conditions since early 2020 [5] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar is declining, with Deutsche Bank noting that overseas investors are significantly reducing their dollar exposure while purchasing US stocks and bonds [6] - Gold prices are reaching new historical highs as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates [6] - Oil prices continue to rise as traders consider further sanctions on Russian oil in response to anticipated oversupply later this year [6]

Group 1 - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, low local inflation, and relatively low public debt [1] - Emerging market stock prices are currently 65% lower than those in the US, presenting various investment opportunities across different markets and sectors [1] - Actual interest rates in emerging markets remain high, comparable to the highest levels since the financial crisis, which will be beneficial as the US enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2 - Political risk has become a dominant concern in emerging markets, especially with upcoming elections in countries like Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, and India [2] - Developed countries are facing increasing political risks due to rising debt levels and budget constraints, with the US experiencing heightened political uncertainty [2] - Emerging market bonds appear to offer more safe-haven value compared to developed market bonds [2] Group 3 - Recent trends show that emerging market stock performance has outpaced that of the US stock market for the first time since 2017 [4] - The total debt of developing countries is projected to be about 75% of their annual economic output, significantly lower than the 125% for G7 developed countries [4] - Indonesia and Vietnam have public debt ratios of 40% and 33% respectively, which are much lower than those of certain developed countries [4] - Low inflation and ample foreign exchange reserves strengthen the fiscal prudence of emerging markets, providing central banks with the ability to manage market volatility [4] - There is a growing realization that the perception of emerging markets as inherently riskier may not be accurate [4]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid President Trump's attacks, leading to increased discussions about reducing exposure to U.S. assets among foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Foreign investors are increasingly discussing the need to reduce their exposure to U.S. assets due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence [2]. - U.S. domestic investors are less motivated to reallocate funds away from U.S. assets, attributed to a sense of complacency [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - There is a lack of evidence supporting inflation driven by tariffs, despite average tariffs nearing 20% [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence may lead to a sharp rise in long-term interest rates, potentially undermining hopes of alleviating U.S. debt repayment pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The stability of the $37 trillion U.S. bond market is at risk due to increasing uncertainty, with potential liquidity panic in the short-term bond market as international investors signal a desire to limit exposure to long-term U.S. bonds [3]. - Despite concerns reflected in the bond and forex markets, the U.S. stock market is currently performing well, indicating a disconnect in pricing [3].