一位95岁老人用几个单词告别舞台，留下的却是足以滋养几代人的精神财富。 "I'm going quiet。" 在伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司最新发布的致股东信中，95岁的沃伦·巴菲特用这句简洁的英式表达，为自己60年的 传奇投资生涯画上句号。 没有盛大的告别仪式，没有冗长的投资建议，这位智慧老人选择"悄然卸任"，却在最后一份年度信函中，留 下了对人生最深刻的思考与感悟。 他感恩自己仍健康在世，尽管行动变缓、阅读吃力，仍坚持每周到办公室工作五天。他透露将加快向基金 会捐赠的节奏，并明确表示伯克希尔无意打造家族王朝。 "伟大，并非来自积累巨额财富、博取曝光，或掌握政府重权。" 巴菲特在信中写道，"当你通过成千上万种 方式中的任何一种去帮助他人时，你就是在为这个世界做出贡献。善意无需成本，却价值连城。" 01 两次隐退，一种智慧 这并非巴菲特第一次选择"退隐"。 早在1968年，当美国股市牛气冲天、投资者疯狂追逐利润时，38岁的巴菲特却通知合伙人逐步退出，并清 算个人持有的巴菲特合伙人公司股票。他敏锐地察觉到——符合他标准的低价股票已难寻觅，风险正在积 聚。 事实证明了他的远见。1969年，股市急转直下，最终演变为股灾，而 ...

而这封"刷屏"的信，还挺特别的。 因为，它作为"股神"的最后一封股东信，没有谈公司，没有谈投资，也没有谈股票、业绩，而是用很大的篇幅聊自己的人生。 95岁的巴菲特，在如此重要的场合下，不会仅仅是在和你回忆以前的生活，而是，通过这种方式，提醒我们思考，理解其中蕴含的人生建议。 在我看来，有这五条忠告，值得我们每个人学习和牢记！ 一个时代，即将谢幕！ 美国当地时间11月10日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司在官网发布了，首席执行官巴菲特，致股东的年度信。 这位执掌伯克希尔·哈撒韦60年，被誉为"股神"的老人，正式宣布了自己的退休倒计时。 如果说五月份的，伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会，是巴菲特的最后一次谢幕演讲，那这次就是巴菲特写给股东的最后一封信了。 "值得信任"且优秀的朋友 巴菲特用了一半的篇幅，在写自己生活的地方，奥马哈。 但这里的奥马哈，不单单是一个地理位置，而是一个"让你足以托付信任"的圈子。 比如巴菲特写道："查理·芒格住在离他现在的家，仅一条街的地方。" 而帮巴菲特，打下传媒江山的斯坦·利普西，他的家离巴菲特家只有五个街区。 把中美能源，卖给伯克希尔的沃尔特·斯科特，却又是斯坦的邻居。 而可口可乐的总裁唐·基奥，1 ...

Core Insights - Howard Marks, co-founder of Oak Tree Capital, predicts that the S&P 500 may yield only single-digit returns over the next decade, indicating a pessimistic outlook for investors [1] - Marks emphasizes that optimism can lead to cognitive dissonance, where investors ignore negative factors for extended periods, which is relevant to the current local bull market in A-shares [1] Summary by Sections Investment Philosophy - Marks shares wisdom that the best buying opportunities often arise when market consensus is at its lowest, highlighting a quote from a retired trader [2] - He encourages investors to self-reflect on common mistakes they may be making in their investment strategies [2] Recommended Readings - The article suggests additional insightful content, including discussions on U.S. debt challenges, investment strategies from Baillie Gifford regarding Netflix, and insights into capital cycles from industry experts [2]

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of recognizing risks during market upswings rather than merely chasing opportunities [2][3] - Understanding market nature is crucial, as cycles are eternal and human behavior remains unchanged [4] - The second-level thinking principle suggests evaluating whether current market optimism is excessive and if prices reflect true value [5] Group 2 - Investment decisions should prioritize value over price, focusing on the relationship between asset quality and its intrinsic value [6][7] - The philosophy of buying undervalued assets is highlighted, advocating for purchases when prices are significantly below intrinsic value [9] - The principle of margin of safety is essential, requiring purchases at prices well below intrinsic value to cushion against errors and market fluctuations [10] Group 3 - The focus should be on avoiding catastrophic investments rather than solely seeking winning opportunities [11] - Defensive investment strategies are particularly important in bull markets, emphasizing error avoidance [12] - Setting realistic return expectations in line with current market conditions is vital, especially at market peaks [13] Group 4 - Recognizing potential losses is more critical than focusing on potential gains [14] - The risk of permanent capital loss is a significant concern, overshadowing short-term price volatility [15] - Avoiding attempts to time the market is advised, as consistent short-term predictions are nearly impossible [16] Group 5 - Mastering emotional control is essential for maintaining rationality in investment decisions [17] - Greed and fear are identified as emotional adversaries that can lead to poor investment timing [18] - The importance of resisting the fear of missing out during bull markets and the fear of further losses during bear markets is emphasized [20] Group 6 - Acknowledging one's ignorance is the first step toward wisdom in investing, highlighting the importance of understanding unknowns [24] - Creating a negative checklist of what not to invest in is as crucial as identifying potential investments [25] Group 7 - Risk-return asymmetry indicates that high risk does not guarantee high returns; only by correctly identifying and assuming unnoticed risks can investors achieve high returns [27] - Great investors prioritize risk management over profit generation, making risk control a core investment principle [28] Group 8 - The essence of value investing lies in focusing on tangible factors like assets and cash flow while seeking to buy at undervalued prices [33] - Investors should concentrate on known areas, focusing on the fundamentals of companies, industries, and securities [34] Group 9 - The practice of contrarian investing is encouraged when prices deviate significantly from value, requiring courage and patience [36] - The greatest investment opportunities often arise from widespread pessimism, while the most significant risks stem from collective optimism [38] Group 10 - Continuous learning and integrating various investment concepts are vital for successful investing [40] - Establishing a consistent investment philosophy and maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial for recognizing true value over time [42]

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant event, the "Global Chinese Wealth Management and Inheritance Summit," scheduled for August 1, 2025, in Singapore, featuring prominent speakers such as Jim Rogers and Nassim Nicholas Taleb [1] - The summit offers three complimentary passes valued at 2166 yuan per person, excluding transportation, accommodation, and visa costs, targeting attendees in or visiting Singapore [1] Group 2 - The article promotes a related discussion on current Silicon Valley investment and technology trends, emphasizing the depth of insights shared by influential figures like Reid Hoffman [2] - It encourages readers to engage with the content by sharing their thoughts in the comments section, with the most liked responses receiving rewards [2] - Additional recommended readings include insights from Howard Marks on investment wisdom and discussions on value investing strategies [2]