资本周期

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Emerson Electric Co. (EMR) Presents at Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference Transcript
Seeking Alpha· 2025-06-11 00:24
Great to be here. Emerson Electric Co. (NYSE:EMR) Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Conference Call June 10, 2025 4:00 PM ET Company Participants Colleen Mettler - Vice President of Investor Relations Ram R. Krishnan - Executive VP & COO Conference Call Participants Unidentified Analyst All right. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for being with us. We are excited to continue the discussion with Emerson and very happy to have Ram Krishnan, COO of Emerson; and Colleen Mettler, who runs IR. Thank you both ...
反内卷语境下重读资本周期:资本周期:经典案例和新思考
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-06 05:10
证券研究报告 | 2025年06月06日 反内卷语境下重读资本周期 资本周期:经典案例和新思考 资本周期分析框架通过供给端指标预判行业变化,为投资者提供了把握市场 节奏的有效工具。框架初步关注资本开支和行业集中度等核心指标,揭 示行业供给变化如何影响未来回报。投资实践中,应重点监测企业资本 开支与盈利数据的匹配度,判断行业是否处于过度投资阶段。当行业资 本开支持续增加而盈利前景不明朗时,往往预示着供需错配和产能堆积 风险,投资者应适当降低相关行业配置比例。相反,当行业经历充分出 清、资本开支降至低位而盈利开始企稳时,则是逆势布局的良机。 企业生命周期的不同阶段决定了投资策略的差异化选择,二次成长企业往往 比初次成长公司提供更佳的风险收益比。企业上市后 ROIC 通常呈现先下 降后上升的 U 型走势。关注经历市场洗礼后出清,通过业务转型或模式 创新实现二次成长的企业,其往往已建立稳固的市场地位和竞争壁垒。 在实际配置中,可通过筛选经历过完整周期调整、估值回归合理区间且 开始展现新增长动能的公司,构建兼具防御性和成长性的投资组合。 历史案例表明,行业繁荣往往隐藏着危机,投资者应在资本扩张高峰期保持 警惕,在行业低 ...
潮玩资本大撤退!泡泡玛特遭“清仓式”减持,创始股东套现21亿元离场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 09:12
Core Viewpoint - The recent large-scale sell-off of shares by Borchid Capital in Pop Mart is a strategic exit aligned with the fund's lifecycle, rather than a reflection of the company's value [5][7][8]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Borchid Capital sold 11.91 million shares of Pop Mart through three block trades, cashing out approximately HKD 22.67 billion (around RMB 21.11 billion) [2][7]. - The founder of Borchid Capital, Tu Zheng, expressed gratitude for the 14-year journey with Pop Mart, highlighting the ups and downs experienced during this period [5][6]. - The fund had held a 2.85% stake in Pop Mart prior to the sale, having invested during the angel round and participated in multiple financing rounds [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the sell-off, Pop Mart's stock price dropped by 5.43% on May 7, and continued to decline by 2.98% the following day [3][4]. - Market analysts suggest that the sell-off is a normal capital cycle exit and does not indicate a negative outlook on the company's future [7][8]. Group 3: Company Performance - Pop Mart reported impressive financial results for 2024, with revenue reaching RMB 13.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106.9%, and adjusted net profit of RMB 3.4 billion, up 185.9% [7][8]. - The overseas market showed remarkable growth, with revenue from overseas and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan reaching RMB 5.07 billion, a staggering increase of 375.2% [7]. - The company anticipates over 50% growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with expectations for overseas sales to exceed RMB 10 billion [8][9]. Group 4: Stock Performance - Pop Mart's stock price surged from HKD 16.59 per share in early February 2024 to a peak of HKD 199 per share, marking an increase of nearly 11 times [9]. - As of May 9, the stock closed at HKD 191.1, giving the company a total market capitalization of HKD 256.6 billion (approximately RMB 238.1 billion) [9].