证券研究报告 | 2025年12月14日 资本周期与产业更迭专题 从美股产业更替看 A 股投资主线 策略研究·策略解读 | 证券分析师： | 王开 | 021-60933132 | wangkai8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980521030001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 陈凯畅 | 021-60375429 | chenkaichang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523090002 | 事项： 解读： 一、从美股市值结构看产业周期兴衰更迭 进入 21 世纪后，美国经济历经互联网泡沫破裂和金融危机，能源、原材料行业一度回潮，市值占比显著 提升；2011 年以来，移动互联网和平台经济崛起，信息技术行业市值占比从 11%飙升至 27%，成为市场主 导力量，能源行业市值占比则大幅下降超 10 个百分点。纵观百年变迁，美国股市行业市值分布从以能源、 工业为主导，逐步过渡到以信息技术、金融为核心，这既反映技术革命对产业结构的深刻影响，也体现美 国经济从制造业主导向服务业和知识经济主导的转型，为理解产业升级与 ...

来源：明河投资 作者：胡一帆 本文写作时间：2025年10月8日 马拉松资本是一家伦敦的资产管理公司，他们在行业内极度低调，不做任何营销，客户全部是主动找上 门的机构投资者，十几个人的投资团队管理超过500亿美金的资产，在业内有极高的品牌认可度。 他们写过一本书叫《资本周期》（也有翻译成《资本回报》）非常有名。书中提及，马拉松资管喜欢两 种类型的公司——"持续优势"（增长型）和"困境反转"（价值型）。马拉松资本使用一个被称为"回报 衰减率"的框架，寻找两类投资对象，如下图所示： 投资对象A：一家能持续获得高于市场预期回报的公司（图上部虚线），即公司维持回报高于市场平均 水平的时间更长。 市场对A的"错误定价"源于：由于A短期遇到了问题（也可能是犯了某些战略上的错误），导致业绩下 滑，市场认为A的辉煌时代已经过去，由此给予较低估值。 也就是说，当一个具备好的商业模式、企业文化的企业，遇到一个未来能大概率能解决的问题时，市场 定价的短视导致这类公司往往会出现好的买入机会。 典型的案例就是2014-2016年期间的苹果，2011年乔布斯去世后，库克上任，苹果销量下滑，而安卓手 机阵营增长迅猛（华为、OPPO、VIV ...

Core Viewpoint - The value in the AI infrastructure market is expected to shift from chip manufacturers like NVIDIA to cloud service providers, but this perspective is challenged by the current economic realities of data centers and intense competition from Chinese firms [1][2]. Group 1: Cloud Profitability Reality - Cloud service profitability is significantly lower than anticipated, as evidenced by Oracle's data center gross margin disclosures, which reveal limited profitability even after accounting for GPU depreciation [3][4]. - The economic model resembles a monopoly upstream (NVIDIA) extracting major profits, while the downstream (cloud services) faces fierce competition and high costs, leading to limited profits [4][5]. Group 2: Downstream Application and Competition - Downstream profits are not as optimistic as market expectations, with many enterprises finding token demand lower than anticipated and economic benefits from tokens not materializing immediately [6][7][8]. - The competition from Chinese firms, particularly Alibaba's Qwen series, is reshaping cost structures with significantly lower token prices, creating downward pressure on pricing [10][11][20]. Group 3: Capital Cycle Perspective - The AI infrastructure investment is projected to exceed $4 trillion over the next 5-7 years, with signs of overcapacity and declining unit profits reminiscent of the historical railway boom [23]. - Key indicators of a potential cycle turning point include declining utilization rates, intensified price wars, and tightening financing conditions [23]. Group 4: Future Value Distribution - The ultimate value in AI is expected to flow towards application developers rather than cloud service providers, as chip manufacturers currently extract high profits, but as model costs decrease, the real profits will shift to AI enterprise software and vertical industry solutions [24][25]. - Alibaba's low-price strategy for tokens indicates a future where tokens become cheap and replaceable resources rather than high-margin products [26].

Core Viewpoint - Recent reports indicate a significant reduction in holdings of Chinese concept stocks by major global funds, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) sector, raising questions about the motivations behind this capital withdrawal and its implications for the industry [4][6]. Group 1: Capital Withdrawal Reasons - Major hedge funds, including Bridgewater, have reduced their stakes in Chinese EV companies, with capital recouped estimated between $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion [4]. - The withdrawal of capital may be seen as a natural market behavior, reflecting a phase of profit-taking after achieving high returns, as many foreign investors have realized substantial gains from their investments in Chinese EVs [5][6]. - The current phase of capital withdrawal may also be temporary, influenced by technological bottlenecks in the industry, particularly regarding solid-state battery commercialization [5]. Group 2: Industry Growth and Challenges - The Chinese EV market has experienced rapid growth but is now facing challenges such as high penetration rates, low growth, and low profit margins, leading to cautious investment behavior [7][9]. - The market's growth rate has slowed from triple digits to double or single digits, indicating a transition towards a more sustainable and healthy development phase [7][8]. - Increased competition and the need for continuous R&D investment are impacting profit margins, with some companies investing more in R&D than their quarterly profits [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategies - To navigate the capital cycle, Chinese EV companies must focus on technological innovation and cost control, building a robust ecosystem encompassing R&D, manufacturing, and supply chains [10]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards high-end and differentiated products, with domestic brands beginning to penetrate the high-end market traditionally dominated by foreign brands [10][11]. - Diversifying financing options, including secondary listings and strategic partnerships, is essential for enhancing resilience against capital market fluctuations [11].

Core Insights - Howard Marks, co-founder of Oak Tree Capital, predicts that the S&P 500 may yield only single-digit returns over the next decade, indicating a pessimistic outlook for investors [1] - Marks emphasizes that optimism can lead to cognitive dissonance, where investors ignore negative factors for extended periods, which is relevant to the current local bull market in A-shares [1] Summary by Sections Investment Philosophy - Marks shares wisdom that the best buying opportunities often arise when market consensus is at its lowest, highlighting a quote from a retired trader [2] - He encourages investors to self-reflect on common mistakes they may be making in their investment strategies [2] Recommended Readings - The article suggests additional insightful content, including discussions on U.S. debt challenges, investment strategies from Baillie Gifford regarding Netflix, and insights into capital cycles from industry experts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the investment philosophy of Dai Bin, a fund manager at Liuhe Zhizun, who adheres to the "capital cycle" concept, focusing on supply-side analysis rather than demand predictions [4][7][20]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Liuhe Zhizun is one of the earliest private equity firms in China, known for its resilience through multiple market cycles [3]. - Dai Bin's investment framework incorporates four dimensions: stock behavior, capital expenditure, institutional behavior, and valuation, using a quadrant model to illustrate the cyclical nature of capital cycles [6][20]. - The analysis starts from the supply side, asserting that changes in capital supply better explain return differences than demand fluctuations [7][20]. Group 2: Capital Cycle Framework - The capital cycle is defined as the flow of capital in and out of industries based on returns, where high returns attract capital and low returns lead to capital exit [16]. - The four quadrants of the capital cycle are: 1. Quadrant 4: Low industry valuation, declining capital expenditure, and negative media sentiment. 2. Quadrant 1: Recovery phase with increasing capital expenditure and improving cash flows. 3. Quadrant 2: High capital expenditure and profit recovery, leading to optimistic market sentiment. 4. Quadrant 3: High valuations declining as cash flow issues arise and capital contracts [22][20]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - The article discusses the importance of identifying high-barrier companies and industries experiencing capital outflows for investment opportunities [18][19]. - It highlights the significance of management's long-term capital planning capabilities, including new capital expenditures, mergers, and buybacks [19]. - The analysis categorizes companies into those with free cash flow and those without, emphasizing that industries with low capital expenditure often present better investment opportunities [30][34]. Group 4: Market Conditions and Opportunities - The current market is characterized by high valuations in certain sectors, with limited cheap stocks available [46][48]. - The article notes that sectors like telecommunications and energy remain undervalued, while the internet sector shows signs of capital cycle challenges [42][44]. - It suggests that the "反内卷" (anti-involution) policy could create opportunities in previously over-supplied sectors if successful [54][65]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The article concludes that while the AI sector is currently a high consensus area, caution is advised as supply may outstrip demand in the future [58][61]. - It emphasizes the need to balance investments between high consensus sectors and those with potential recovery opportunities, suggesting a gradual reduction in high consensus positions [64][68].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of understanding capital cycles when investing in commodities and cyclical stocks, suggesting that high returns attract capital while low returns repel it, leading to predictable fluctuations in shareholder returns [4][5][6] - The article discusses the significance of identifying industries undergoing large down cycles that require funding, followed by a detailed analysis of individual companies' fundamentals to find stocks trading below their intrinsic value [4][5] - It highlights the necessity of conducting stress tests on selected companies to ensure their debt levels are manageable and their survival during economic downturns [5] Group 2 - The author shares personal experiences in commodity investing, particularly in the sugar industry, illustrating the challenges faced when initial investments did not yield expected results, which ultimately led to a deeper understanding of the sector [12][13] - The article mentions the importance of continuous learning and adapting investment strategies based on market conditions, as demonstrated by the author's shift in focus to graphite electrode companies in India [16][21] - It emphasizes that successful commodity investments often require a contrarian approach, buying during periods of pessimism and selling when the market is overly optimistic [5][32] Group 3 - The article outlines key indicators of capital cycle risks, such as monitoring capital expenditures, asset growth, and the frequency of investment banking activities in specific industries [14][8] - It discusses the significance of understanding supply dynamics in commodity markets, noting that many investors focus primarily on demand while neglecting supply factors that can significantly impact returns [9][29] - The author stresses the need for investors to remain vigilant and manage risks effectively, particularly in volatile commodity markets where prices can fluctuate dramatically [32][35]

Core Insights - The key to understanding the capital cycle is recognizing how changes in capital allocation within an industry affect future returns, emphasizing the importance of supply-side changes over demand analysis [3] - Industry concentration exhibits an inverted U-shaped distribution throughout different stages of the corporate lifecycle, transitioning from high competition to oligopoly, with dividend yields increasing as companies evolve from recovery to maturity [3] - Current recommended secondary industries include aquaculture, animal health, components, consumer electronics, communication services, advertising, television broadcasting, real estate services, shipping ports, logistics, and railroads [3] Section Summaries 01 Capital Cycle: Supply and Concentration Considerations - The capital cycle framework prioritizes supply and concentration changes over economic conditions, indicating that supply fluctuations drive industry profitability [4] 02 Historical Positioning of Capital Cycles in Sub-Industries - The report categorizes 124 sub-industries based on their capital cycle status from Q3 2008 to Q1 2025, using concentration, profit growth, and capital expenditure growth as key indicators [27] 03 Current Capital Cycle Stages of Various Industries - The analysis identifies industries in optimal or suboptimal capital cycle phases, allowing for targeted investment recommendations [39] 04 Capital Cycle Principles and Case Studies in the US and Japan - The report discusses the principles of capital cycles in the US and Japan, providing case studies that illustrate the application of these principles across different market environments [4] 05 Viewing Capital Cycles Through the Lens of "Anti-Overwork" - The report suggests that the current economic environment, characterized by a push against overwork, influences capital allocation and industry dynamics [4]

Core Insights - Emerson Electric Co. reported a strong quarter with underlying sales up 2%, driven primarily by process markets [5] - The company experienced a 4% increase in orders, with process orders rising by 6% [5] - Key geographic markets showing strength include North America, the Middle East, India, and the rest of Asia [5] Demand Trends - Demand has been resilient despite elevated uncertainty, attributed to robust capital cycles in process markets [5] - The discrete market showed recovery with a 3% increase, while Test & Measurement (T&M) saw an 8% rise [5] - The strength in demand is particularly noted in select markets such as LNG, where the capital cycle remains strong [5]

Group 1 - The capital cycle analysis framework predicts industry changes through supply-side indicators, focusing on capital expenditure and industry concentration to reveal how supply changes affect future returns [1][11] - Monitoring the alignment between corporate capital expenditure and profit data is crucial to determine whether an industry is in an over-investment phase [1][11] - Companies that have undergone market cleansing and achieved second growth through business transformation or innovation often establish solid market positions and competitive barriers [1][11] Group 2 - Historical cases indicate that industry prosperity often conceals crises, and investors should remain vigilant during capital expansion peaks while seeking quality targets with recovery potential during industry troughs [2][3] - The evolution of the telecom and iron ore industries illustrates the typical path of "demand recovery - capital influx - capacity accumulation - price collapse - industry consolidation" [2][3] - Technological innovation accelerates capital cycle iterations, necessitating investors to avoid risks from traditional industry disruptions while seizing structural opportunities from emerging technologies [2][3] Group 3 - Capital market behaviors serve as important indicators for assessing industry cycles, with active financing periods often coinciding with industry peaks [3][11] - Excessive financing in an industry should prompt careful evaluation of potential capacity accumulation risks, while a quiet capital market during troughs may present good investment opportunities [3][11] - The capital cycle framework emphasizes the importance of liquidity excess, over-investment, and speculative behaviors in capital markets [17][19] Group 4 - The capital cycle framework has evolved through three stages: initial construction, expansion and supplementation, and deepening application, enhancing the understanding of industry performance and future potential [11][14] - The framework incorporates various indicators, including HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index) and IPO activity, to provide a comprehensive view of market structure and competition [11][14] - Empirical research validates the effectiveness of the capital cycle framework in predicting industry performance and guiding investment strategies [11][14] Group 5 - The telecom industry in the 1980s-1990s experienced significant changes, transitioning from monopoly to competition, followed by over-investment and subsequent market consolidation [48][49] - The industry's evolution included phases of high concentration, capital expenditure surges, and eventual market rationalization through mergers and acquisitions [48][49] - The recovery of profitability and stability in the telecom sector was marked by the emergence of large multinational companies leveraging technological innovation [48][49]