在国内外复杂形势中，5.3%的GDP增速表明了中国经济强大 的韧性和增长潜能，但也要注意到，二季度GDP增速、投资增 速相比一季度出现回落，上半年CPI增速持续低位，表明当前 宏观经济总量失衡的问题仍在不断发展。 作者： 田进 封图：图虫创意 上半年，国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.3%。分季度看，一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，二季度增 长5.2%。 7月15日，国家统计局公布了上半年中国经济增长成绩单。在数据发布当天的新闻发布会上，国家 统计局副局长盛来运表示，上半年经济运行总体平稳，稳中有进、稳中向好，是一份含金量非常高 的成绩单。这是在二季度以来国际形势急剧变化、外部压力明显加大的情况下取得的成绩，非常不 容易。 从拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"来看，近几年消费一直是拉动经济增长的压舱石。2023年、2024 年，最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率分别为82.5%、44.5%。 如是金融研究院院长管清友表示，上半年GDP增速超出市场预期，充分显示出中国经济的潜力和 韧性，应该说成绩来之不易。在下半年各种增量政策陆续出台的前提下，一定能完成5%的GDP增 速目标。 展望下半年，盛来运提及，现在外部环境仍然复杂多 ...

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Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of time in investment, suggesting that a longer investment horizon allows for better risk management and potential returns [1][5] - It highlights the relationship between expected return rates and volatility, illustrating that short-term investments can lead to extreme fluctuations in returns [2][3] - The article discusses how different holding periods affect return consistency, with longer periods leading to more stable and predictable returns [4] Summary by Sections Time and Investment Strategy - Time is described as a critical factor in investment, serving as a lever for making informed decisions [1] - A longer time frame allows investors to focus on long-term potential rather than short-term volatility [5] Expected Returns and Volatility - A simulation shows that a one-day investment can lead to a wide range of annual returns, highlighting the risks of short-term trading [2] - The average annual return for U.S. stocks is around 10%, but short-term fluctuations can create significant uncertainty [2][3] Holding Period and Return Patterns - The article presents data showing that A-shares can have annual returns ranging from +293% to -69%, indicating high variability in short-term returns [4] - Over a five-year period, return patterns become more consistent, and over ten years, they align more closely with expected averages [4] Long-Term Investment Perspective - Understanding the impact of time can help investors plan better and avoid panic during short-term market fluctuations [5] - Adopting a long-term mindset can lead to different investment choices that yield better returns over time [5]