Core Viewpoint - Despite the easing of tariffs between China and the U.S., the average tariff rate on Chinese goods remains high at around 42%, with significant portions of goods facing rates as high as 57% [2][3] Tariff Analysis - The average tariff rate on U.S. imports from China is approximately 42%, with 40% of goods facing a rate of about 39.5% and 32% facing around 57% [2] - The breakdown of tariffs includes: - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff: 36,011,281 (7.78%) - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff + 301 List (1-3): 146,373,663 (31.64%) - Base tariff + Fentanyl tariff + Equalization tariff + 301 List (4): 187,165,284 (40.46%) - Other categories account for 123,359,456 (26.66%) [3] Trade Dynamics - Following the tariff easing in May, there has been a recovery in direct trade between China and the U.S., with indices for the CCFI West and East routes increasing by 21% and 23% respectively [4] - However, the number of container ships from China to the U.S. showed weak performance in late May, indicating a time lag in the recovery process [4] Import Trends - The U.S. has been "rushing imports" since November last year, with approximately $220 billion worth of goods imported from November 2024 to March 2025, equivalent to one month’s import volume prior to this period [7] - As inventory levels rise and shipping costs increase, U.S. import demand has started to decline, with the growth rate of goods imports dropping from 31.1% in March to 2.2% in April [7] Export Orders - The PMI export order index for China in May and the number of container ships heading to the U.S. in early June suggest that the momentum for "rushing exports 2.0" may be starting to wane [7]

Group 1: Export Performance - In May, China's exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[7] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop from -21% to -34.5%[7] - The high tariff impact of 145% continued until mid-May, with a reduction to 30% announced on May 12[7] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The average tariff on Chinese goods by the U.S. is approximately 42%, with about 40% of goods facing a 39.5% tariff[10] - Around 32% of goods are subjected to a 57% tariff, while the average tariff for other regions is about 12%[10] - The tariff reduction has not significantly boosted the "export rush 2.0" effect, indicating limited recovery in U.S. demand[20] Group 3: Shipping and Demand Trends - Shipping rates to the U.S. increased significantly, with the CCFI index for the West and East U.S. routes rising by 21% and 23% respectively by June 6[14] - Container ship numbers from China to the U.S. showed a slight improvement in early June, but remained below levels seen before April[14] - U.S. import demand has been declining since April, with a drop in import growth from 31.1% in March to 2.2% in April[19]

Export Performance - In May, China's exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[5] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop from -21% to -34.5%[5] - The high tariff impact of 145% continued until mid-May, with a reduction to 30% announced on May 12[5] Tariff Impact - The average tariff rate on Chinese goods by the U.S. is estimated at around 42%, with approximately 40% of goods facing a rate of about 39.5%[6] - About 32% of goods are subjected to a 57% tariff rate, while the average tariff for other regions is around 12%[6] - The tariff reduction has not led to a significant increase in exports to the U.S., indicating limited immediate benefits[5][6] Trade Dynamics - There is a noted increase in China's exports to Africa (33%) and ASEAN (15%) in May, suggesting a shift towards re-exporting through these regions[6] - The shipping rates to the U.S. have increased significantly, with the CCFI indices for the East and West U.S. coasts rising by 21% and 23% respectively since May 9[9] - Despite the tariff adjustments, the overall demand for imports in the U.S. has declined, with a notable drop in import growth from 31.1% in March to 2.2% in April[11] Risks and Uncertainties - There remains considerable uncertainty regarding U.S.-China tariff policies, which could exert pressure on the Chinese economy[4][18] - The U.S. domestic economic uncertainty may lead to a decline in demand for Chinese goods, impacting future trade relations[4][18] - The potential for a rebound in Chinese exports to the U.S. in June is limited due to ongoing low shipping volumes compared to pre-April levels[10][13]