Group 1: Export Performance - In May, China's exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[7] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop from -21% to -34.5%[7] - The high tariff impact of 145% continued until mid-May, with a reduction to 30% announced on May 12[7] Group 2: Tariff Impact - The average tariff on Chinese goods by the U.S. is approximately 42%, with about 40% of goods facing a 39.5% tariff[10] - Around 32% of goods are subjected to a 57% tariff, while the average tariff for other regions is about 12%[10] - The tariff reduction has not significantly boosted the "export rush 2.0" effect, indicating limited recovery in U.S. demand[20] Group 3: Shipping and Demand Trends - Shipping rates to the U.S. increased significantly, with the CCFI index for the West and East U.S. routes rising by 21% and 23% respectively by June 6[14] - Container ship numbers from China to the U.S. showed a slight improvement in early June, but remained below levels seen before April[14] - U.S. import demand has been declining since April, with a drop in import growth from 31.1% in March to 2.2% in April[19]

广发期货研究所 化工组 金果实 从业资格：F3083706 投资咨询资格：Z0019144 氯碱周报 S H ：氧化铝采 买价提涨支撑， 盘 面反复 关 注 现货及仓单 V ： 近 端现货显 疲 弱 ， 驱动不足盘 面再度转跌 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 烧碱主要观点：短期看烧碱检修集中阶段供应压力有限，需求端，氧化铝伴随近期利润好转部分存复产预期，叠加新产线支撑需求。山东主流厂采买价上近期连续四次提涨， 当前已涨至800元/湿吨，支撑现货价格。且当前看仓单较少或反映当前供需面仍强，但非铝端压力增加以及烧碱成本下降后估值逐步走高形成风险。单边维持观望；6-9正套尝试。 PVC主要观点：PVC近期的反弹主要基于中美关税缓和带来的宏观刺激、BIS政策延期至6月下后出口维持积极以及PVC自身检修集中及库存同比压力有限的供需面支撑。但中长 线PVC在地产难见有效提振下仍表现出明显的过剩压力，而印度BIS及反倾销税始终作为潜在利空存在。且伴随期现反弹，本周现货市场反映偏淡，当前盘面已有震荡回落势头，中 线维持高空思路对待，09上方阻力位一线看5100附近。 周 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Mid - term outlook is bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Mid - term outlook is bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Mid - term steel prices are under pressure [4] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: In the short - term, the equity market lacks upward momentum after the positive news of Sino - US tariff relaxation is realized, but policies are favorable for the A - share market in the medium and short - term, and funds may increase the allocation of weighted sectors such as CSI 300 [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Due to weak economic data, loose monetary policy expectations, improved liquidity, and upcoming deposit rate cuts, the bond market is expected to be bullish [2][3] - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Although short - term demand for steel products has improved, high raw material inventory and weak downstream demand will put pressure on steel prices in the medium term [4][5] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Intraday View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience [1] - **Mid - term View**: Bullish [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF2506 and short IM2506 [1] - **Core Logic**: Sino - US tariff relaxation boosts short - term risk appetite, but there is still uncertainty in trade negotiations; policies to stabilize and activate the capital market are beneficial for the A - share market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - **Intraday View**: Bullish with a sideways trend [2] - **Mid - term View**: Bullish [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - **Core Logic**: Weak economic data in April indicates weak domestic demand, leading to expectations of further monetary policy easing; improved liquidity and upcoming deposit rate cuts are favorable for the bond market [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil [4] - **Intraday View**: Short - term drivers are improving [4] - **Mid - term View**: Steel prices are under pressure [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to sell call options on rebar RB2510 (strike price: 3300 - 3450) [4] - **Core Logic**: Short - term demand for steel products has increased due to Sino - US tariff negotiations, but high raw material inventory and weak downstream demand will limit the upward movement of steel prices [4][5]

Core Insights - On May 20, stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of over 4 billion yuan, despite the overall market rising, indicating a trend of profit-taking among investors [1][2] - Since the beginning of May, stock ETFs have seen cumulative outflows exceeding 57 billion yuan, reflecting a broader market sentiment shift [1][6] Fund Flow Analysis - As of May 20, there are 1,091 stock ETFs in the market with a total scale of 3.53 trillion yuan [2] - On May 20, eight stock ETFs recorded net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with military, AI, and non-bank financial sectors leading the inflows [2] - The top three ETFs by net inflow on May 20 were military-themed ETFs, with net inflows of 7.1 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan, and 1.9 billion yuan respectively [2] Sector Performance - The sectors with significant net inflows included defense and military (7.1 billion yuan), non-bank financial (2.8 billion yuan), and artificial intelligence (1.6 billion yuan) [2] - Conversely, sectors experiencing the largest net outflows included innovative pharmaceuticals and Hong Kong internet ETFs, with the former losing nearly 10 billion yuan [5][7] ETF Rankings - The top three ETFs by net inflow on May 20 were: 1. Military Leading ETF: 86.57 billion yuan, net inflow of 2.37 billion yuan 2. Military ETF Leader: 44.51 billion yuan, net inflow of 1.92 billion yuan 3. Military ETF: 135.07 billion yuan, net inflow of 1.56 billion yuan [4] - The top three ETFs by net outflow were: 1. Hong Kong Innovative Pharmaceutical ETF: 101.76 billion yuan, net outflow of 5.14 billion yuan 2. Hang Seng Medical ETF: 98.59 billion yuan, net outflow of 4.30 billion yuan 3. Hong Kong Internet ETF: 472.57 billion yuan, net outflow of 3.41 billion yuan [7] Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the recent outflows may be influenced by a decrease in urgency for domestic policy support due to easing US-China trade tensions, leading to potential market volatility [6] - The focus for future investments is expected to shift towards sectors driven by technological growth, particularly in AI and biomedicine, which are seen as having strong investment value [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of stock index futures is range - bound with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience, and the medium - term view is bullish. For bond futures, the short - term view is a volatile rebound, and the medium - term view is bullish. For copper, the short - term view is a 77000 - 78700 range fluctuation, and the medium - term view is a 66000 - 90000 range fluctuation. Industrial silicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and be under pressure in the medium - term. Polysilicon is expected to run weakly in the short - term and at a low level in the medium - term. Lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decline in the short - term and experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support in the medium - term [1][2][4][6][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Intraday View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index showing relative resilience - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in IF2506 and a hedging portfolio of long IF206 and short IM2506 - **Core Logic**: Sino - US tariff relaxation boosts short - term risk appetite, but trade negotiation uncertainties remain. Policy support for the capital market encourages medium - and low - risk - preference funds to increase allocations in weighted sectors such as the CSI 300 or dividend assets [1] Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Intraday View**: Volatile rebound - **Medium - term View**: Bullish - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 - **Core Logic**: Weak domestic demand in April's inflation and financial data may lead to further monetary policy easing. After the reserve requirement ratio cut, short - term liquidity tightened [2][3] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: Fluctuate within the 77000 - 78700 range - **Medium - term View**: Fluctuate within the 66000 - 90000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach - **Core Logic**: US restrictions on chip exports may drag down the US stock market. Kazakhstan's refined copper production declined in 2025. China's copper exports increased, but domestic copper demand in some sectors is expected to decline. Copper inventories show a mixed trend. Tariff trade wars and domestic supply - demand changes will affect copper prices [4][5] Industrial Silicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 8100 - 8300 range - **Medium - term View**: Be under pressure within the 7900 - 9000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2506 - C - 11000 until expiration and short the futures - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production declined, but demand declined more, and the inventory is at a high level, leading to a continued supply - surplus situation [6][8][9] Polysilicon - **Intraday View**: Run weakly within the 36500 - 37000 range - **Medium - term View**: Run at a low level within the 35000 - 40000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2506 - C - 47000 - **Core Logic**: In April 2025, production and demand both declined, and the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - **Intraday View**: Continue to decline within the 60000 - 63000 range - **Medium - term View**: Experience a steady price drop with weakening cost support within the 59000 - 65000 range - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 - **Core Logic**: The spot price is continuously falling. In April 2025, production increased, and the total inventory is at a high level, which is negative for the price [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The report highlights that the easing of US-China tariffs has led to a short-term suppression of gold prices, but the long-term investment value of gold remains unchanged [10][11] - The industrial metals sector is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, making prices more likely to rise than fall [12][13] - In the renewable energy metals sector, lithium prices are expected to remain stable, with strategic investment opportunities still available [16][17] - The report notes a potential easing of rare earth controls, creating a bullish sentiment in the market [18][20] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The easing of tariffs between the US and China has created a short-term pressure on gold prices, but the long-term investment value remains intact. The report suggests focusing on companies like Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold [10][11][12] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand dynamics for copper remain tight, supporting price stability. The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts will further bolster copper prices in the medium to long term. Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jincheng Mining [12][13][14] Renewable Energy Metals - The report indicates that while there may be a slight increase in export orders due to eased tariffs, the overall supply-demand balance for lithium remains weak in the short term. Strategic investment opportunities are highlighted for companies like Salt Lake Potash and Ganfeng Lithium [16][17] Other Minor Metals - The report suggests that the potential easing of rare earth controls could lead to increased prices, with companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth being of interest [18][20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the fundamentals of methanol had limited improvement, and the futures rebounded due to macro - level support. This week, the fundamentals remain unchanged, with supply likely to decrease, demand expected to be weak, and port inventory likely to rise while enterprise inventory may fall. The improvement in the macro - level due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs may be the main driver for methanol, and a long - position operation can be considered [6][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures oscillated and rebounded. The weighted methanol closed at 2,298 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 2.64% from the previous week. In the spot market, the overall domestic methanol market rose, but the spot basis in the coastal market declined rapidly, and the atmosphere in the inland market weakened. As of May 19, the methanol prices in different regions showed different trends, with the price in Jiangsu Taicang rising 0.7% to 2,440 yuan/ton, that in Guangdong falling 0.79% to 2,399 yuan/ton, that in Ordos North Line dropping 1.54% to 2,116 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong Jining decreasing 3.06% to 2,316 yuan/ton [11] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, domestic methanol production decreased. The number of maintenance cases exceeded restarts, with the output at 1,991,055 tons, a decrease of 66,720 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate at 8.47%, a 4.01% drop [14] - **Downstream Industry**: The olefin industry's operation rate remained low. As of May 15, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 59.78%, up 0.70 percentage points from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, chlorides, and formaldehyde showed different trends [16][17] - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of May 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 335,800 tons, up 31,900 tons from the previous period, a 10.48% increase, and the order backlog was 273,600 tons, up 35,800 tons, a 15.06% increase. The inventory and order backlog in different regions showed different changes [18] - **Port Inventory**: As of May 14, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample ports was 483,900 tons, a decrease of 78,000 tons from the previous period, a 13.88% drop. The inventory in different regions showed different trends [26] - **Profit**: Last week, the average profit of domestic methanol samples showed mixed trends. The profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia increased by 18.41% to 244.40 yuan/ton, while the profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol in Hebei decreased by 22.13% to 316.67 yuan/ton [29] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of maintenance cases will still exceed restarts. It is expected that China's methanol output will be about 1.9706 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.44%, a decrease from last week [31] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin industry's operation rate will remain low. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, formaldehyde, and chlorides are expected to show different trends [32][33] - **Enterprise Inventory**: It is expected that the enterprise inventory will slightly decrease to 303,200 tons [34] - **Port Inventory**: It is expected that the port methanol inventory will increase this week [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The easing of tariffs between China and the US has improved external demand expectations, providing short-term support for steel demand [5][6]. - The report anticipates a potential increase in steel production control due to uncertainties in external demand and a recovering domestic demand [5][6]. - The profitability of steel companies is expected to recover as raw material supply conditions become more favorable [5][6]. Price Summary - As of May 16, steel prices have increased, with rebar (20mm HRB400) priced at 3200 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][12]. - Hot-rolled steel (3.0mm) is priced at 3310 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 80 CNY/ton [3][12]. - Cold-rolled steel (1.0mm) is priced at 3670 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton [3][12]. Production and Inventory - Total steel production for the week ending May 16 was 8.68 million tons, a decrease of 58,200 tons from the previous week [4]. - Social inventory of major steel products decreased by 392,900 tons to 9.93 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.60 million tons, an increase of 463,900 tons week-on-week [4]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials in the special steel sector [5]. - Suggested attention to high-temperature alloy stocks such as Fushun Special Steel [5]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Baosteel (600019.SH) has an EPS forecast of 0.34 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 20 [5]. - Hualing Steel (000932.SZ) has an EPS forecast of 0.29 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 17 [5]. - Nanjing Steel (600282.SH) has an EPS forecast of 0.37 CNY for 2024, with a PE ratio of 12 [5].

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: May 16, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Currently, the production of the five major steel products has slightly declined, inventory has increased, and the demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils has dropped from its peak. However, there are multi-dimensional signs of recovery in the real estate sector, and the steel demand in the automotive, shipbuilding, and machinery industries generally maintains a high growth trend. Macroscopically, the Sino-US tariffs have eased, increasing the expectation of rushed exports and recovering the expectation of downstream demand. In the future, the fundamental contradictions of rebar and hot-rolled coils are minor, market sentiment has improved, and the futures prices are expected to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short term [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions Review - **Futures Market**: On May 15, the main futures contracts 2510 of rebar and hot-rolled coils oscillated with a slightly stronger trend, while the main futures contract 2507 of stainless steel opened high and closed low. The closing prices of RB2510, HC2510, and SS2507 were 3118 yuan/ton, 3260 yuan/ton, and 12995 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0.39%, 0.46%, and -0.23% [5]. - **Spot Market**: In the spot market on May 15, the rebar prices in most regions showed an upward trend, with price increases ranging from 10 to 20 yuan/ton. The hot-rolled coil prices also showed an upward trend in some regions, with price increases of 10 or 20 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the 2510 contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coils diverged upwards, and the daily MACD red bars both expanded [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Production and Inventory Data**: In early May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 22.05 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.205 million tons (a 0.2% increase compared to the previous period); 19.9 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.99 million tons (a 1.6% increase compared to the previous period); and 20.83 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.083 million tons (an 8.4% decrease compared to the previous period). The steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 16.06 million tons, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous ten-day period [11]. - **Raw Material Inventory and Cost**: As of May 15, the total inventory of imported sintered powder in 114 steel mills (new caliber) was 27.1467 million tons, a decrease of 443,300 tons compared to the previous period. The average tax-free hot metal cost of steel mills was 2376 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period [11]. - **Technological Breakthrough**: The first domestic steel for deep-drawn battery shells suitable for the 40160 type (40mm in diameter × 160mm in height) large cylindrical battery successfully rolled off the production line at the No. 2 continuous annealing production line of Magang Hefei Company, marking a major technological breakthrough in the new energy battery material field [11]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major markets, the weekly production of the five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between the Shanghai rebar and hot-rolled coil spot prices and the May contracts [13][15][18][24][27][31]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a technical bull market since 2025, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index rising by 31.27% from January 13 to April 30, 2025, leading globally [1] - The rebound is primarily driven by the strong recovery of Hong Kong technology stocks and active inflows of southbound capital, with net purchases exceeding 38,202 billion yuan as of April 30, 2025 [3] - The recent easing of US-China tariff tensions is expected to alleviate operational pressures on related companies and boost international collaboration and market demand within the technology industry [1][6] Group 2 - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations of further upward movement due to economic policy stimulus and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - The Hong Kong technology sector is benefiting from domestic economic recovery and innovation, supported by a favorable liquidity environment and policy easing, which is expected to activate the "internal growth momentum" of technology stocks [6] - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which includes major tech companies like Alibaba, Xiaomi, and Tencent, making it a quality target for investors looking to capitalize on the rebound [7] Group 3 - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has outperformed other Hong Kong technology indices, with a one-year return of 58.39% compared to 37.00% for the Hang Seng Technology Index [12] - The index's balanced industry distribution allows it to effectively capture growth opportunities across various sectors, contributing to its superior long-term performance since 2017 [9] - Investors interested in Hong Kong technology can consider the Hong Kong Technology ETF (513020) or its linked funds for exposure [13]