风险提示： 模型失效风险、因子失效风险、海外市场波动风险。 报告导读： 根据 2025 年 12 月底的最新数据，股票、债券和黄金市场在 2026 年 1 月 信号分别为正向，负向和正向。 大类资产 1 季度配置信号 ： 根据 2025 年 12 月底的最新数据，信用利差收窄，期限利差扩张， 2026Q1 宏观环境预测结果为 Slowdown 。 宏观动量模型配置信号： 根据 2025 年 12 月底的最新数据，股票、债券和黄金市场在 2026 年 1 月信号分别为正向、负向和正向。 行业复合趋势因子组合表现及信号： 2015 年 1 月至 2025 年 12 月，行业复合趋势因子组合的累积收益为 124.81% ，超额收益为 48.89% 。上月（ 2025 年 12 月）因子信号为正向， Wind 全 A 当月收益率为 3.30% 。根据 2025 年 12 月底的最新数据，行业复合趋势因子为 0.46 ，维持正向信号。 本公众订阅号(微信号: GTHT RESEARCH )为国泰海通证券股份有限公司(以下简称"国泰海通证券") 研究所依法设立、独立运营的唯一官方订阅号。其他机构或个人在微信平台上以国泰海 ...

Core Insights - The overall market signals for stocks, bonds, and gold as of October 2025 indicate negative, positive, and negative trends respectively for November 2025 [1][3]. Asset Allocation Signals - As of September 2025, both credit spreads and term spreads are signaling a narrowing trend, with the macroeconomic environment forecasted to be inflationary for Q4 [2]. Macro Momentum Model Signals - The cumulative return of the industry composite trend factor combination from January 2015 to October 2025 is 122.58%, with an excess return of 48.40%. The factor signal for October 2025 was positive, while the Wind All A monthly return was -0.04%. The industry composite trend factor as of October 2025 is 0.34, indicating a rebound and issuing a positive signal [3].

Core Insights - The overall market signals for stocks, bonds, and gold in May 2025 are negative, neutral, and positive respectively [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment for Q2 2025 is predicted to be influenced by inflation [2] - The cumulative return of the industry composite trend factor combination from January 2015 to April 2025 is 73.81%, with an excess return of 37.8% [2] Asset Allocation Signals - As of the end of March 2025, both credit spreads and term spreads indicate a narrowing trend [2] - The factor signal for the industry composite trend was positive in April 2025, despite a drop in the factor value to -0.48 [2] Performance Metrics - The Wind All A index recorded a monthly return of -3.15% in April 2025 [2] - The industry composite trend factor experienced a significant decline but maintained a positive signal [2]