- The macro momentum model allocation signal for March 2026 indicates negative signals for the stock market, positive signals for the bond market, and negative signals for the gold market based on the latest data at the end of February 2026[4][9][12] - The counter-cyclical allocation model predicts the macroeconomic environment for Q1 2026 as Slowdown, with the allocation ratios for underlying assets being 20% for CSI 300, 0% for CNI 2000, 30% for Nanhua Commodity, and 50% for ChinaBond Treasury Total Wealth Index[7] - The cumulative return of the industry composite trend factor portfolio from January 2015 to February 2026 is 143.48%, with an excess return of 52.95%[14] - The industry composite trend factor for February 2026 is 0.24, maintaining a positive signal[14] - The macro momentum model uses various sub-factors such as PMI, PPI, CFETS RMB Index, and others to generate signals for different markets[9][12] - The counter-cyclical allocation model uses credit spread and term spread to predict economic growth and inflation changes for the next quarter, classifying the macro environment into Growth, Inflation, and Slowdown stages[7] - The industry composite trend factor is constructed from industry-level indicators to observe market trends, with significant absolute values indicating potential market uptrends or downtrends[13] - The cumulative net value of the counter-cyclical strategy based on a 20-80 stock-bond benchmark is shown in the report[10] - The industry composite trend factor portfolio's performance and signals are illustrated with the Wind All A Index[16][17]

Core Insights - The overall market signals for stocks, bonds, and gold in May 2025 are negative, neutral, and positive respectively [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment for Q2 2025 is predicted to be influenced by inflation [2] - The cumulative return of the industry composite trend factor combination from January 2015 to April 2025 is 73.81%, with an excess return of 37.8% [2] Asset Allocation Signals - As of the end of March 2025, both credit spreads and term spreads indicate a narrowing trend [2] - The factor signal for the industry composite trend was positive in April 2025, despite a drop in the factor value to -0.48 [2] Performance Metrics - The Wind All A index recorded a monthly return of -3.15% in April 2025 [2] - The industry composite trend factor experienced a significant decline but maintained a positive signal [2]