每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【金工】大类资产及择时观点月报 大类资产 4季度配置信号： 根据 2025年9月底的最新数据，信用利差和期限利差均发出收窄信号，Q4宏观环境预测结果为Imnflation。 行业复合趋势因子组合表现及信号： 2015年1月至2025年9月，行业复合趋势因子组合的累积收益为122.66%,超额收益为48.42%上月（2025年9月）因子 信号为正向，Wind全A当月收益率为2.80%。根据2025年9月底的最新数据，行业复合趋势因子为-0.30出现下滑，但依旧维持正向信号。 风险提示： 模型失效风险、因于失效风险、海外市场波动风险， 【电子】自强，先进制程设备的突破是核心 投资建议： 美国众议院"中美战略竞争特别委员会"出具一份对中国半导体战略的系统性"围堵"建议书，核心逻辑是中国半导体产业的崛起威胁美国国家安全 与全球技术主导地位，报告建议通过出口管制、技术封锁、产业补贴等手段，确保美国及其盟友在全球半导体产业链中的主导地位，从而遏制半导体崛起。我 们认为半导体产业的全球化仍然是不变的追求，但美国政府不断打压限制我国集成电路产业的发展，本土优秀的半导体装 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that as of the end of June 2025, the signals for stocks, bonds, and gold markets for July 2025 are positive, negative, and positive respectively [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment forecast for Q3 suggests inflation, with both credit spreads and term spreads signaling a narrowing trend [2] - The cumulative return of the industry composite trend factor combination from January 2015 to June 2025 is 86.40%, with an excess return of 40.53%. The factor signal for June 2025 was positive, and the Wind All A monthly return was 4.74% [2]

Core Insights - The overall market signals for stocks, bonds, and gold in May 2025 are negative, neutral, and positive respectively [1][2] - The macroeconomic environment for Q2 2025 is predicted to be influenced by inflation [2] - The cumulative return of the industry composite trend factor combination from January 2015 to April 2025 is 73.81%, with an excess return of 37.8% [2] Asset Allocation Signals - As of the end of March 2025, both credit spreads and term spreads indicate a narrowing trend [2] - The factor signal for the industry composite trend was positive in April 2025, despite a drop in the factor value to -0.48 [2] Performance Metrics - The Wind All A index recorded a monthly return of -3.15% in April 2025 [2] - The industry composite trend factor experienced a significant decline but maintained a positive signal [2]