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商品量化CTA周度跟踪-20250819
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 11:35
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The commodity market shows different trends in various sectors. The bearish proportion has slightly increased this week, with significant changes in the black and agricultural sectors. The overall market signals are mainly bearish, with some exceptions like the iron ore market turning neutral [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Sector Analysis - The agricultural sector's momentum is rising, while the energy sector is relatively weak. In the black sector, the momentum factor has decreased marginally, and the term - structure differentiation has narrowed. In the non - ferrous sector, the position - holding factor has decreased marginally, and the cross - sectional differentiation has widened. In the energy - chemical sector, there is cross - sectional momentum differentiation. In the agricultural sector, the position - holding of oilseeds and meals has increased, and the short - cycle momentum of palm oil has rebounded [1]. Performance of Different Commodities Methanol - Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.64%, the inventory factor declined by 0.66%, and the comprehensive signal this week is bearish. Fundamentally, the supply side remains bearish, the demand side is neutral to bearish, the inventory side turns bearish, and the spread side is neutral to bearish [1]. Float Glass - Last week, the inventory factor increased by 2.47%, the spread factor weakened by 0.17%, the profit factor decreased by 0.20%, and the synthetic factor declined by 0.13%, with a bearish comprehensive signal this week. Fundamentally, the supply side is neutral, the demand side is neutral to bearish, the inventory side is bearish, and the profit side is neutral to bullish [1]. Iron Ore - Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.38%, the synthetic factor increased by 0.08%, and the comprehensive signal this week turns neutral. Fundamentally, the supply side's bearish feedback weakens to neutral, the demand side turns to bullish feedback but remains neutral, the inventory side turns bearish, and the spread side turns bullish [3][4].
商品量化CTA周度跟踪-20250812
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 11:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The multi - short ranking of commodities has changed significantly this week, with the divergence between energy and non - ferrous metals at the two ends increasing. Currently, the relatively strong sectors are non - ferrous metals and black metals, while the relatively weak ones are energy and agricultural products [2]. - The overall signals of different commodities vary. For methanol, the comprehensive signal turns neutral; for float glass, the comprehensive signal is neutral; for iron ore, the comprehensive signal turns bearish; for Shanghai lead, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Commodity Overall Situation - The divergence within the non - ferrous metals sector has increased. The time - series momentum factor of the non - ferrous metals sector remains high, but the position factors of varieties such as zinc and aluminum have declined, and the cross - sectional momentum divergence has expanded. The time - series momentum of the energy sector has dropped significantly [2]. Methanol - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.01%, the demand factor increased by 0.15%, the inventory factor rose by 0.12%, the spread factor weakened by 0.11%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal turns neutral [4]. - Fundamental factors: The import arrival volume has increased significantly, making the supply side bearish; the capacity utilization rates of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE plants have decreased, making the demand side neutral to bearish; the inventory of domestic methanol production enterprises has continued to decrease, making the inventory side bullish; the methanol futures 9 - 1 spread and the import profit factor have both released bearish signals, making the spread side neutral [4]. Float Glass - Strategy net value: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.32%, the spread factor increased by 0.39%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The capacity utilization rate of float glass is flat month - on - month, keeping the supply side neutral; the transaction volume of commercial housing in third - tier cities has increased slightly, making the demand side neutral; the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased, with the inventory side remaining bullish but the strength weakening; the spot price of the domestic float glass market has continuously released bearish signals, making the spread side bearish; the pre - tax gross profit of float glass made from steam coal and pipeline gas has declined, but the factor contribution is low, making the profit side neutral [7]. Iron Ore - Strategy net value: Last week, each factor remained unchanged. This week, the comprehensive signal turns bearish [7]. - Fundamental factors: The arrival volumes at Rizhao Port and Tianjin Port have increased significantly, strengthening the bearish feedback on the supply side; the daily average consumption of steel enterprises has decreased, with the demand side turning to bearish feedback but the signal remaining neutral; the inventory of imported trade ore at ports has accumulated, strengthening the bearish feedback on the inventory side; the spot price center has risen, and the freight rate from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao has increased slightly, maintaining the bullish feedback on the spread side [7]. Shanghai Lead - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor weakened and decreased by 0.23%, the synthetic factor weakened by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The price of SMM imported lead concentrates has gradually increased, making the supply side turn to bearish feedback; the LME inventory and SHFE futures warehouse receipts have both decreased, making the inventory side turn to bullish feedback; the average weekly near - far month spread of LME lead has expanded, making the spread side signal turn neutral [7].