Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The multi - short ranking of commodities has changed significantly this week, with the divergence between energy and non - ferrous metals at the two ends increasing. Currently, the relatively strong sectors are non - ferrous metals and black metals, while the relatively weak ones are energy and agricultural products [2]. - The overall signals of different commodities vary. For methanol, the comprehensive signal turns neutral; for float glass, the comprehensive signal is neutral; for iron ore, the comprehensive signal turns bearish; for Shanghai lead, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Commodity Overall Situation - The divergence within the non - ferrous metals sector has increased. The time - series momentum factor of the non - ferrous metals sector remains high, but the position factors of varieties such as zinc and aluminum have declined, and the cross - sectional momentum divergence has expanded. The time - series momentum of the energy sector has dropped significantly [2]. Methanol - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor strengthened by 0.01%, the demand factor increased by 0.15%, the inventory factor rose by 0.12%, the spread factor weakened by 0.11%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.01%. This week, the comprehensive signal turns neutral [4]. - Fundamental factors: The import arrival volume has increased significantly, making the supply side bearish; the capacity utilization rates of formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and MTBE plants have decreased, making the demand side neutral to bearish; the inventory of domestic methanol production enterprises has continued to decrease, making the inventory side bullish; the methanol futures 9 - 1 spread and the import profit factor have both released bearish signals, making the spread side neutral [4]. Float Glass - Strategy net value: Last week, the inventory factor decreased by 0.32%, the spread factor increased by 0.39%. This week, the comprehensive signal is neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The capacity utilization rate of float glass is flat month - on - month, keeping the supply side neutral; the transaction volume of commercial housing in third - tier cities has increased slightly, making the demand side neutral; the inventory of float glass enterprises has increased, with the inventory side remaining bullish but the strength weakening; the spot price of the domestic float glass market has continuously released bearish signals, making the spread side bearish; the pre - tax gross profit of float glass made from steam coal and pipeline gas has declined, but the factor contribution is low, making the profit side neutral [7]. Iron Ore - Strategy net value: Last week, each factor remained unchanged. This week, the comprehensive signal turns bearish [7]. - Fundamental factors: The arrival volumes at Rizhao Port and Tianjin Port have increased significantly, strengthening the bearish feedback on the supply side; the daily average consumption of steel enterprises has decreased, with the demand side turning to bearish feedback but the signal remaining neutral; the inventory of imported trade ore at ports has accumulated, strengthening the bearish feedback on the inventory side; the spot price center has risen, and the freight rate from Tubarão, Brazil to Qingdao has increased slightly, maintaining the bullish feedback on the spread side [7]. Shanghai Lead - Strategy net value: Last week, the supply factor weakened and decreased by 0.23%, the synthetic factor weakened by 0.04%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains neutral [7]. - Fundamental factors: The price of SMM imported lead concentrates has gradually increased, making the supply side turn to bearish feedback; the LME inventory and SHFE futures warehouse receipts have both decreased, making the inventory side turn to bullish feedback; the average weekly near - far month spread of LME lead has expanded, making the spread side signal turn neutral [7].