Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade risks following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU [2][49]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6]. - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9]. - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, mid-range tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14]. Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][51]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a 4.7-fold increase in annual investment to fulfill its promise [4][21]. - South Korea's commitment of $350 billion represents 53% of its fiscal spending, necessitating a dramatic increase in FDI to the US over three years [4][21]. Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to maintain a long-term and targeted approach to tariffs, with significant revenue generation from tariffs being a primary benefit of trade agreements [5][32]. - As of July 29, 2025, US tariff revenue reached $125.6 billion, 2.3 times higher than the previous year, indicating a shift in focus from currency manipulation to fiscal control [5][32]. - The article suggests that the US may continue to leverage tariff threats as a negotiation tool, with a potential shift in strategy from historical approaches that focused on currency adjustments to a more fiscal-oriented strategy [5][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade risks following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies such as Japan and the EU [2][49]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6]. - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9]. - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, medium tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14]. Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][51]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a significant increase in annual investment to meet targets [4][21]. - South Korea's commitment of $350 billion represents 53% of its fiscal spending, necessitating a dramatic increase in FDI to the US [4][21]. Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to maintain tariff leverage as a long-term strategy, with tariff revenues reaching $125.6 billion by July 29, 2025, which is 2.3 times higher than the previous year [5][32]. - The uncertainty surrounding the execution of trade agreements suggests that the US may continue to create tariff threats, particularly as the expiration date for the US-China tariff suspension approaches [5][52]. - The US's approach to tariffs is shifting from "managing exchange rates to reduce trade deficits" to "controlling fiscal policy to manage trade deficits," indicating a long-term strategy focused on tariff leverage [5][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade tensions following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU. It highlights the uncertainty surrounding the execution of these agreements and the ongoing risks of trade conflicts. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6][49] - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9][50] - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, medium tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14][50] Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][16][51] - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a significant increase in annual investment to meet targets, while South Korea's commitment of $350 billion poses similar challenges due to its scale relative to national spending [4][21][51] - The EU's energy procurement goals are ambitious, aiming for $750 billion over three years, which is three times the expected imports in 2024, indicating a significant execution gap [4][26][51] Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to continue leveraging tariffs as a source of revenue and negotiation power, with tariff income reaching $125.6 billion in 2025, 2.3 times that of 2024 [5][32][52] - The uncertainty surrounding the execution of trade agreements suggests that the US may maintain tariff threats as a pressure tactic, particularly in the lead-up to the August 12 deadline for US-China tariff discussions [5][32][52] - The US's approach to tariffs is shifting from a focus on currency manipulation to fiscal control, indicating a long-term strategy of using tariffs as a financial lever rather than solely for trade balance [5][37][40]