环球时报消息，"美国已不再是那个一贯与盟友密切合作的国家"，新加坡《联合早报》16日援引韩国外 长赵显当日在韩国国会答辩中的话报道称，韩美关税谈判持续受阻，但韩国对美政策语调出现转变，罕 见向美国释放强硬信号。 "美国变了" 不过此举并未打消日本的顾虑。日本经济产业大臣武藤容治16日在回答有关提问时表示，"关税下调将 在一定程度上缓解日本汽车产业受到的冲击，但15%的税率仍然存在。在与汽车产业界的意见交流会 上，我听到有观点表示，虽然对达成15%的税率表示赞赏，但其影响仍然很大。"最新数据显示，8月日 本对美汽车出口大幅下降28.4%。 据共同社此前统计，由于美国加征关税，丰田等7家日本汽车制造商在截至2026年3月的财年中，合计营 业利润将减少约2.67万亿日元（约合1295.8亿元人民币）。日本《冲绳时报》17日评论称，日本政府不 应简单地遵守可能偏离国际规则和法律的关税政策，而应再次寻求与国际社会的合作，以保护自由贸易 体系。 韩企"出血竞争"难维持 韩国《东亚日报》报道称，韩方虽与美方达成将关税降至15%的大框架协议，但执行时间仍未确定。韩 国业内人士直言，韩企在美无法贸然提价，担忧将加速被日本竞争对 ...

【环球时报驻韩国特约记者 黎枳银 环球时报特约记者 王辉】"美国已不再是那个一贯与盟友密切合作的国家"，新加坡《联合早报》16日援引韩 国外长赵显当日在韩国国会答辩中的话报道称，韩美关税谈判持续受阻，但韩国对美政策语调出现转变，罕见向美国释放强硬信号。据韩联社16 日报道，韩国总统办公室一名高官表示，政府不能因为赶时间而在严重损害韩企利益的协议上签字。与此同时，美国对日本汽车的进口关税自16 日起由27.5%降至15%，缓解了日本所受到的冲击，但对韩国汽车仍维持25%税率，令韩国产业界愈发焦虑。 降到 15% ，影响仍然很大 韩国《东亚日报》报道称，韩方虽与美方达成将关税降至15%的大框架协议，但执行时间仍未确定。韩国业内人士直言，韩企在美无法贸然提 价，担忧将加速被日本竞争对手蚕食市场份额。今年3月至8月，韩国对美汽车出口连续6个月同比下滑，8月降幅达到15.2%。作为韩国汽车最大 出口市场，美国已占整体出口约四成，冲击显而易见。 报道称，韩国车企陷入被动局面。以现代Avante车型为例，若维持25%关税，其价格将上涨至2.76万美元，比享受15%关税的丰田卡罗拉贵出约 1520美元。现代和起亚眼下只能选择 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade risks following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU [2][49]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6]. - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9]. - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, mid-range tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14]. Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][51]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a 4.7-fold increase in annual investment to fulfill its promise [4][21]. - South Korea's commitment of $350 billion represents 53% of its fiscal spending, necessitating a dramatic increase in FDI to the US over three years [4][21]. Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to maintain a long-term and targeted approach to tariffs, with significant revenue generation from tariffs being a primary benefit of trade agreements [5][32]. - As of July 29, 2025, US tariff revenue reached $125.6 billion, 2.3 times higher than the previous year, indicating a shift in focus from currency manipulation to fiscal control [5][32]. - The article suggests that the US may continue to leverage tariff threats as a negotiation tool, with a potential shift in strategy from historical approaches that focused on currency adjustments to a more fiscal-oriented strategy [5][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade risks following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies such as Japan and the EU [2][49]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6]. - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9]. - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, medium tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14]. Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][51]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a significant increase in annual investment to meet targets [4][21]. - South Korea's commitment of $350 billion represents 53% of its fiscal spending, necessitating a dramatic increase in FDI to the US [4][21]. Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to maintain tariff leverage as a long-term strategy, with tariff revenues reaching $125.6 billion by July 29, 2025, which is 2.3 times higher than the previous year [5][32]. - The uncertainty surrounding the execution of trade agreements suggests that the US may continue to create tariff threats, particularly as the expiration date for the US-China tariff suspension approaches [5][52]. - The US's approach to tariffs is shifting from "managing exchange rates to reduce trade deficits" to "controlling fiscal policy to manage trade deficits," indicating a long-term strategy focused on tariff leverage [5][37].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade tensions following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU. It highlights the uncertainty surrounding the execution of these agreements and the ongoing risks of trade conflicts. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6][49] - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9][50] - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, medium tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14][50] Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][16][51] - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a significant increase in annual investment to meet targets, while South Korea's commitment of $350 billion poses similar challenges due to its scale relative to national spending [4][21][51] - The EU's energy procurement goals are ambitious, aiming for $750 billion over three years, which is three times the expected imports in 2024, indicating a significant execution gap [4][26][51] Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to continue leveraging tariffs as a source of revenue and negotiation power, with tariff income reaching $125.6 billion in 2025, 2.3 times that of 2024 [5][32][52] - The uncertainty surrounding the execution of trade agreements suggests that the US may maintain tariff threats as a pressure tactic, particularly in the lead-up to the August 12 deadline for US-China tariff discussions [5][32][52] - The US's approach to tariffs is shifting from a focus on currency manipulation to fiscal control, indicating a long-term strategy of using tariffs as a financial lever rather than solely for trade balance [5][37][40]

Trade Agreements and Tariffs - As of August 1, the U.S. has established a three-tier tariff system, with effective tariffs at 7.9% compared to a theoretical rate of 18.3%[1][2][15]. - The U.S. has reached trade agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import scale, with Germany at 4.6%, Japan at 4.2%, and South Korea at 3.6%[1][12]. - The U.S. tariff revenue for Q2 2025 reached $64 billion, a 3.6 times increase from the previous year, with total imports at $819.4 billion[1][15]. Investment Commitments - The EU must increase its annual investment in the U.S. by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion over three years, which is challenging due to reliance on private sector funding[3][20]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion requires an annual investment of $1.833 billion, which is 4.7 times the 2024 investment flow[3][22]. - South Korea's $350 billion commitment represents 19% of its GDP and 53% of its annual budget, necessitating an eightfold increase in annual FDI to the U.S.[3][23]. Long-term Tariff Risks - U.S. tariff income has reached $125.6 billion in 2025, 2.3 times higher than in 2024, with projections of $300 billion by the end of 2025[4][34]. - The U.S. is shifting its tariff strategy from "exchange rate adjustment" to "fiscal control" to manage trade deficits, indicating a long-term reliance on tariffs as a negotiation tool[4][38]. - The U.S. may continue to impose secondary tariffs on countries that import Russian oil, with potential rates reaching 100%[4][42].

Group 1 - The U.S. and South Korea's planned "2+2" tariff negotiations were postponed due to U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's urgent schedule, with a looming deadline for new tariffs on August 1 [1][3] - South Korea proposed a shipbuilding cooperation project named "Make American Shipbuilding Great Again" (MASGA), potentially worth hundreds of billions of dollars, to the U.S. [1][3] - The project includes investments and financing guarantees from South Korean private shipbuilding companies, with financial support expected from institutions like the Korea Export-Import Bank [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is interested in revitalizing its shipbuilding industry, which has a significantly lower global market share compared to China, Japan, and South Korea [3][4] - In 2024, the completion rates for shipbuilding are projected to be 51.99% for China, 26.78% for South Korea, and 11.67% for Japan, highlighting the competitive landscape [3] - The U.S. is simultaneously attempting to suppress China's shipbuilding industry while seeking closer ties with South Korean and Japanese firms [3][4] Group 3 - The South Korean government aims to negotiate a trade agreement that includes shipbuilding, LNG, and trade balance improvements, reflecting a strategic partnership with the U.S. [4][5] - Recent reports indicate that major South Korean shipbuilders like Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean are entering into cooperation agreements with U.S. companies [5] - The South Korean government is under pressure to reach a favorable trade agreement with the U.S. to avoid potential GDP declines, with estimates suggesting a 1.7% drop if negotiations fail [7][8]