Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff suspension measures and the potential for easing trade risks following recent "investment for tariff" agreements between the US and other economies like Japan and the EU [2][49]. Group 1: Trade Negotiation Progress - The US has made significant progress in trade negotiations, having reached agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import goods as of August 1 [2][6]. - The effective tariff rate in the US for Q2 was 7.9%, significantly lower than the theoretical rate, which has risen to 18.3% from 2.4% at the beginning of the year [2][9]. - The US has established a three-tiered tariff system based on trade agreements, with low tariffs (10%) for allies, mid-range tariffs (15%-20%) for agreed economies, and high tariffs (20%-50%) for those with stalled negotiations [3][14]. Group 2: Feasibility of Trade Agreements - The EU must increase its annual investment in the US by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion, with the majority of funding coming from private enterprises, making execution uncertain [4][51]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion is primarily in loans, requiring a 4.7-fold increase in annual investment to fulfill its promise [4][21]. - South Korea's commitment of $350 billion represents 53% of its fiscal spending, necessitating a dramatic increase in FDI to the US over three years [4][21]. Group 3: Tariff Risk Mitigation - The US is likely to maintain a long-term and targeted approach to tariffs, with significant revenue generation from tariffs being a primary benefit of trade agreements [5][32]. - As of July 29, 2025, US tariff revenue reached $125.6 billion, 2.3 times higher than the previous year, indicating a shift in focus from currency manipulation to fiscal control [5][32]. - The article suggests that the US may continue to leverage tariff threats as a negotiation tool, with a potential shift in strategy from historical approaches that focused on currency adjustments to a more fiscal-oriented strategy [5][37].

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇、王茂宇、李欣越 联系人| 赵宇 摘要 8月12日，中美关税暂停措施即将到期。从美国近期与日本、欧盟等经济体达成的"投资换关税"贸易协议来看，后续关税风险能否缓和，还存在哪些潜在贸易 冲突？ 热点思考： 美国贸易协议中的"虚虚实实" （一） 贸易谈判进度？谈判进程已近半，美国实质建立了三档分层关税 通过贸易谈判，美国实质上建立了三档分层关税。 一是最低档10%，主要为盟友国或贸易逆差较小的经济体，如英国、澳大利亚、新加坡等；二是中间档 15%–20%，主要包括与美方已达成协议的经济体；三是高档关税20%-50%，主要为谈判受阻的经济体，如印度、巴西。 （二） 贸易协议能否落地？投资与采购承诺存在显著的执行不确定性 欧盟需将对美年均投资规模翻2.6倍才能实现投资承诺，由于资金主要来源私营企业，约束力较低。 欧盟承诺对美新增投资6000亿美元，美国强调这笔投资属 于增量概念。2024年欧盟对美投资1244亿美元，欧盟若在特朗普任期内兑现，平均每年投资总规模需达到3200亿美元。 日本对美投资资金主体为贷款，韩国承诺规模短期内难以落地。 日本承诺投资5500亿美元，但其中98%为贷款，且年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump announced a 50% tariff increase on copper on July 9, 2025, and stated on social media on July 10 that the 232 tariff would take effect on August 1. The specific details are still unclear, and the main purpose is to reduce external dependence and promote the reshoring of the manufacturing industry [2]. - The core contradiction in the US copper industry is insufficient smelting capacity rather than resource shortage, resulting in a trade pattern of "raw material export - finished product import." In 2025, from January to July, US refined copper imports may exceed 1 million tons, and even if imports stop within the year, normal supply can still be maintained. It is expected that refined copper exports to the US will decrease significantly in the second half of the year, and the supply of refined copper in non - US regions is expected to increase, but the overall inventory accumulation speed may be lower than expected. Next year, regardless of whether the tariff is exempted, US refined copper imports will return to normal levels. If copper product enterprises reshore, the US will increase refined copper imports to replace imported copper products [2]. - The reshoring cycle of copper smelting is relatively long and currently faces a series of problems. In contrast, the construction cycle of copper products is short, and scrap copper supply is sufficient, making reshoring easier. If considering pre - preparation issues such as labor, environmental protection, and documents, referring to the import and export situation of aluminum products, the production cycle may be about 2 years [3]. - If there is no 232 exemption, the comex - lme spread will rebound to over 40%, most affecting Chile and Canada. If the US exempts the 232 tariff for Chile, Canada and other countries, it may cause a short - term plunge in comex copper, and the comex - lme spread will drop to 0 - 10%. If non - major import source countries are exempted, the impact on the market is small, and the spread may remain at 30% - 40%. If major import source countries are exempted from the refined copper tariff and instead restrict the export of scrap copper and copper concentrate, it will drive the comex - lme spread to decline, exacerbate the global shortage of raw material supply, and copper prices may start a new round of upward trend [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Copper Industry Structure - The main contradiction in the US copper industry is not the shortage of copper element supply but the regression of smelting capacity. Comparing 1998 (the year with the highest electrolytic copper production) and 2024, in 1998, US copper concentrate production was 1.86 million tons, copper self - sufficiency rate was as high as 87%, net imported copper concentrate was 180,000 tons, and 350,000 tons of scrap copper were imported as raw material supplements. Electrolytic copper production reached a peak of 2.14 million tons, accounting for 17.63% of the global total, but still could not meet domestic demand of 2.89 million tons, with a net import of 640,000 tons of refined copper. In 2024, US copper concentrate production decreased to 1.1 million tons, of which 780,000 tons were used for domestic smelter production, and the remaining 320,000 tons were exported. The US changed from a net importer of scrap copper to the largest exporter, with a net export volume of 820,000 tons. Refined copper production decreased to 850,000 tons, a 60% reduction compared to 1998. Net imports increased to 724,000 tons, and consumption decreased from 2.89 million tons in 1998 to 1.6 million tons in 2024 [7]. 3.2 US Copper Trade Flows 3.2.1 Copper Concentrate - In 2024, US copper concentrate production was 1.1 million tons, and 320,000 tons were exported, mainly to Mexico, China, and Canada. Exports to Mexico were 229,000 tons, accounting for 71.6%. The US basically does not import copper concentrate and is less affected by the 232 tariff [16]. 3.2.2 Scrap Copper - In 2024, the US exported 959,000 tons of scrap copper, with 397,000 tons (or 40%) exported to China, 104,000 tons to Canada, 95,000 tons to Thailand, 74,000 tons to India, and 72,000 tons to Malaysia. After the mutual addition of 10% reciprocal tariffs between China and the US, the export volume of scrap copper in April and May did not decrease, but the export destination changed. Thailand and India became the top two importers. In 2024, the US imported 138,000 tons of scrap copper, mainly from Mexico and Canada. If Trump imposes a 232 tariff on scrap copper, Mexican scrap copper may be redirected to other countries. There are three possible future directions for US scrap copper: normal export, entering the processing link if the copper processing industry reshore, and entering the smelting link if the copper smelting industry reshore. It is considered that the second possibility is more likely [19][20]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper - In 2024, the US imported 926,000 tons of refined copper, with the top three import source countries being Chile, Canada, and Peru, with import volumes of 650,000 tons (or 70%), 154,000 tons (or 16.6%), and 63,000 tons (or 6.8%) respectively. In 2025, affected by the 232 tariff policy, from January to May, the US imported 680,000 tons of refined copper. Assuming an average import of 200,000 tons in June and July, the total import volume will reach 1.08 million tons, exceeding the annual import volume in previous years. Import volume will decrease significantly or stop within the year, and refined copper from Chile, Canada, and Peru may be shipped to non - US regions. In 2024, the US exported 202,000 tons of refined copper, with 157,000 tons (or 77.7%) exported to Mexico and 24,000 tons (or 11.9%) to Canada [22]. 3.2.4 Copper Products and Others - In 2024, the total import volume of US copper products was 578,000 tons, and the total export volume was 272,000 tons. Import sources were relatively scattered, while exports were concentrated in Canada and Mexico. For copper rods and profiles, 55,000 tons were imported, mainly from Germany, Peru, and Mexico, and 29,000 tons were exported, with Canada and Mexico accounting for 44% and 40% respectively. The most imported copper product was copper wire, with 255,000 tons imported in 2024, of which Canada accounted for about 77.6% of exports to the US. The US also exported 171,000 tons of copper wire, mainly to Mexico and Canada. For copper plates and strips, 84,000 tons were imported, and 36,000 tons were exported, mainly to Mexico and Canada. The US imported 31,000 tons of copper foil, mainly from Asian countries and regions, and basically had no exports. Copper tubes had the highest net import volume, with 103,000 tons imported in 2024 and 25,000 tons exported, mainly to Mexico, Saudi Arabia, and Canada. In 2024, the US imported 50,000 tons of copper tube accessories, mainly from China, Germany, and Vietnam, and exported 11,000 tons, mainly to Mexico and Canada [30][31].

Group 1 - The core issue in the US-EU trade negotiations revolves around tariffs on automobiles and agricultural products, with a potential temporary trade agreement being sought [1][2] - If the negotiations succeed in capping agricultural tariffs at or below 10% and making concessions on automobile tariffs, it could significantly reduce global supply chain pressures and improve corporate profit outlooks [1][4] - The EU is pushing for a 10% tariff on agricultural exports, while the US has proposed a 17% tariff, indicating a gap in expectations that needs to be bridged [3] Group 2 - The EU is focusing on automotive tariffs and has suggested delaying the implementation of retaliatory measures against US tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are set to automatically resume soon [2][3] - Any potential agreement is heavily dependent on the personal views of former President Donald Trump, who has not publicly commented on the ongoing negotiations [2][3] - The outcome of the trade talks will have significant implications for global stock markets, with a positive result potentially leading to a continuation of low volatility and upward trends [4] Group 3 - The US is considering sector-specific tariffs on industries such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with the final results of investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act expected soon [5][6] - The EU is preparing countermeasures in case negotiations fail, including potential tariffs on $24.5 billion worth of US goods and an additional list targeting up to €72 billion [7] - The EU's countermeasures are strategically aimed at politically sensitive US states and industries, indicating a calculated approach to trade relations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of Trump's renewed push for reciprocal tariffs, highlighting the strategic maneuvering of the U.S. government in trade negotiations and its potential impact on various economies, particularly in Asia [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trump's Tariff Strategy - On July 7, Trump extended the suspension period for reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1, indicating a continued aggressive stance in trade negotiations [1]. - The new tariff rates for most countries are similar to previously announced reciprocal tariffs, suggesting a consistent approach by the Trump administration [1]. - The administration's recent legislative success with the "Make America Great Again" plan has strengthened Trump's position, allowing for more aggressive trade tactics [1]. Group 2: Trade Negotiation Dynamics - The U.S. has made progress in trade negotiations, with Vietnam being the second country to reach an agreement, which may influence other economies to expedite their negotiations with the U.S. [2]. - The tariff rates established for various countries, such as 10% for the UK and 30% for China, create a framework that may prompt quicker agreements from nations like the EU, Japan, and South Korea [2]. - The announcement of accelerated Section 232 tariff investigations indicates a shift towards imposing higher tariffs on specific goods, which could become a primary policy option for the Trump administration [2]. Group 3: China's Export Competitiveness - Despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs, China's relative export competitiveness remains better than market expectations, with potential tariffs on China likely to stabilize around 30% [3]. - The article emphasizes the importance for China to maintain strategic focus, deepen reforms, and enhance multilateral cooperation to effectively respond to external pressures [3].

再 call 铜：库存供应双底的历史时刻 20250702 摘要 铜价上涨行情或已接近尾声，预计价格高点在 10,500 至 11,000 美元 之间。上游补库存、冶炼减产及潜在的 LME 和沪铜逼仓现象，将显著提 升 7 月和 8 月铜价的上涨弹性。 若发生逼仓，铜价有望突破 2024 年 5 月的 11,000 美元高点，当前的 市场条件，包括更低的供应增速、更差的库存水平和较低的非商业多单 持仓，均优于 5 月。 美国补库将继续推动未来几个月铜价上涨。尽管美国库存已处高位，但 价差依然驱动补库存，预计 7 月和 8 月铜价表现将优于去年 5 月。232 关税延期至 9 月或 10 月，也为补库存提供了机会。 第二轮补库预计将从中国和欧洲开始，因美国补库后，中欧库存消耗殆 尽。欧洲 LME 库存极低，中国甚至可能出现逼仓。下一轮铜价上行取决 于中欧补库时机，或由需求预期转好或财政刺激驱动。 预计下一波行情将在 2026 年或 232 关税落地后开始，商品价格可能回 到 11,000 至 12,000 美元区间。 美国补库将继续推动未来几个月（7 月和 8 月）铜价上涨。尽管美国库存目前 已达到较高位置，但 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overall, the market is influenced by various factors such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities based on their unique fundamentals [4][12][21]. - For copper, the 232 tariff uncertainty and inventory changes are key factors affecting price and spread. For alumina, Guinea's policy reform and market sentiment play important roles. For electrolytic aluminum, macro - sentiment and seasonal changes in production and consumption are crucial. Other metals also have their own influencing factors and corresponding price trends [4][12][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2508 contract closed at 80,540 yuan/ton, up 0.65%, with the Shanghai Copper index increasing positions by 4,906 lots to 601,000 lots. - Spot: The spot premium of Shanghai copper dropped to 120 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. Guangdong and Tianjin had different spot premiums and changes [2]. - **Important资讯** - Logistics transportation of some mines in Peru was disrupted due to roadblocks set by informal miners, leading to an interruption in copper concentrate transportation [3]. - **Logic Analysis** - The market expects the 232 tariff to be implemented in September - October, and the expectation of a 25% tariff is strengthening. LME inventory is increasing, and short - term external market squeeze risk is easing. Non - US inventories are difficult to increase effectively before the 232 tariff is implemented, which supports price and spread [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Low - inventory and 232 delay expectations drive prices up. - Arbitrage: Buy near - term and sell far - term. - Options: Wait and see [5][7]. Alumina - **Market Review** - Futures: The Alumina 2509 contract rose 130 yuan to 3,071 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 6,396 lots to 422,300 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions remained flat [8]. - **Related资讯** - China's central government emphasized the construction of a unified national market and marine economic development. Guinea plans to reform its mining industry, including creating an aluminum ore index and exercising sales and transportation rights. An aluminum plant in Xinjiang had a higher winning bid price for alumina. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's alumina warehouse receipts decreased [9][10][11]. - **Logic Analysis** - Alumina prices rose due to Guinea's new policy and market rumors. The market is worried about the impact on alumina production. The supply - demand of bauxite is in a tight - balance in the second half of the year, and the price is supported but limited by previous over - supply [12]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Alumina prices are expected to rebound due to market sentiment, and subsequent warehouse receipt changes should be monitored. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract rose 100 yuan/ton to 20,850 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 12,660 lots to 693,100 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Related资讯** - Aluminum inventory decreased slightly. Warehouse receipts decreased. Aluminum rod production decreased last week. China's photovoltaic new - installed capacity increased significantly in May. The US Senate passed a bill [18]. - **Trading Logic** - Macro - sentiment improved, and the seasonal decrease in aluminum water conversion rate and the increase in photovoltaic new - installed capacity are important factors. Aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to fluctuate slightly in July, and the decline in warehouse receipts may slow down. The off - season of aluminum consumption may not be too severe [21]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly with the sector. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities between 7 - 9 and 9 - 12 during de - stocking and exit during stocking. - Options: Wait and see [22]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review** - Futures: The Casting Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract rose 90 yuan to 19,885 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 383 lots to 10,472 lots. - Spot: Spot prices in different regions remained flat [24]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. The expected sales volume of passenger cars in June increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in some places increased. A company plans to build a recycling aluminum project [24][25]. - **Trading Logic** - The futures price of aluminum alloy follows the price of aluminum. The spot market is weak in the off - season, but the price is supported by cost. There are still futures - spot arbitrage opportunities [28]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The absolute price of aluminum alloy futures is expected to fluctuate strongly with the price of aluminum. - Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the spread between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider futures - spot arbitrage when the spread is over 400 yuan. - Options: Wait and see [28]. Zinc - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2508 contract fell 0.11% to 22,230 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 4,934 lots to 263,800 lots. - Spot: The spot market in Shanghai had limited trading, with the premium of domestic spot to the average price rising, but downstream buyers remained on the sidelines [30]. - **Related资讯** - A zinc smelter in Peru resumed production. The domestic zinc ore tender price in June increased [31]. - **Logic Analysis** - Supply - side interference factors have subsided, and domestic refined zinc production is expected to increase in July. The consumption of zinc is entering the off - season, and downstream demand is weak. Domestic social inventory is expected to increase, and zinc prices may face downward pressure [32]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Wait and see, and consider short - selling at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [35][39]. Lead - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2508 contract rose 0.23% to 17,175 yuan/ton, with the index position increasing by 239 lots to 83,800 lots. - Spot: The spot transaction of primary lead improved, with different regions having different price quotes and changes [35]. - **Related资讯** - A recycled lead smelter in the western region will complete maintenance in July and may resume production in August. Overseas crude lead arrived at the port this week [36]. - **Logic Analysis** - The operating rate of domestic primary lead smelters remains high, while the recycled lead smelters are in a loss, and the supply may tighten. The traditional peak season of lead - acid batteries is coming, and lead prices may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [39][40]. Nickel - **Market Review** - Futures: The Shanghai Nickel main contract NI2508 rose 830 to 121,220 yuan/ton, with the index position increasing by 2,288 lots. - Spot: The premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased, and the premiums of Russian nickel and electrowinning nickel remained unchanged [41]. - **Related资讯** - Analysts expect nickel prices to rebound significantly in the second half of 2025 due to supply tightening in Indonesia. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period [42]. - **Logic Analysis** - Nickel prices are fluctuating weakly above 120,000 yuan. The demand in July is entering the off - season, and the supply - demand is in a weak balance. Indonesia's policy adjustment may have limited impact on actual production, and nickel prices will continue to fluctuate [43]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Consider short - selling on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Consider selling call options after rebounds [44][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review** - Futures: The main SS2508 contract rose 135 to 12,670 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 4,059 lots. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [48]. - **Important资讯** - The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism may bring cost risks to stainless steel importers [49][51]. - **Logic Analysis** - Stainless steel prices rebounded with the commodity market, but exports and domestic demand are weak. The decline in nickel ore prices may provide some breathing space, and there may be hedging opportunities. The upward space of stainless steel prices is limited [52]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Stainless steel prices are expected to decline in a fluctuating manner. Pay attention to domestic stimulus policies and US tariff progress. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53][54]. Tin - **Market Review** - Futures: The main Shanghai Tin 2508 contract closed at 268,520 yuan/ton, up 1,180 yuan/ton or 0.44%, with positions increasing by 282 lots to 56,207 lots. - Spot: The spot price of tin in Shanghai rose, but the actual transaction was limited, with most downstream buyers remaining on the sidelines [56]. - **Related资讯** - The US Senate passed a tax - cut and spending bill, which is beneficial to photovoltaic stocks [57]. - **Logic Analysis** - The market expects the 232 tariff to be postponed to September/October. LME inventory is decreasing, and the supply is fragile. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season [58]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: The short - term market is strong. Pay attention to the resumption of tin ore production [59]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review** - Futures: Driven by the sentiment of polysilicon futures, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose 4.79% to 8,210 yuan/ton. - Spot: After the futures price increase, the shipment of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia accelerated, with shipment prices ranging from 7,600 to 8,050 yuan/ton [62][63]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In July, the resumption and new - investment capacity of polysilicon will exceed 350,000 tons [64]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - The demand for industrial silicon will increase in July, and the spot price may not decline before the full resumption of leading manufacturers. Market rumors and policy factors may affect market sentiment. In the short - term, it is recommended to participate in the long - side with a pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton [64]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate in the long - side in the short - term, with a pressure level of 8,500 yuan/ton. - Options: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Consider reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [65]. Polysilicon - **Market Review** - Futures: Affected by price - limit rumors, polysilicon futures rose to the daily limit. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of polysilicon decreased to varying degrees [66]. - **Related资讯** - China emphasized the construction of a unified national market. In July, the resumption and new - investment capacity of polysilicon will exceed 350,000 tons, and polysilicon may face inventory accumulation [64][68]. - **Comprehensive Analysis** - Although the industry is facing negative factors, policy implementation may support the price above 34,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to participate in the long - side in the short - term, with a pressure level of 36,000 yuan/ton [68]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Participate in long - positions in far - month contracts in the short - term, with a pressure level of 36,000 yuan/ton. - Options: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [69]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review** - Futures: The main 2509 contract rose 1,980 to 62,780 yuan/ton, with the index position decreasing by 2,761 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts increasing by 240 to 23,180 tons. - Spot: The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [70]. - **Important资讯** - CATL has future plans for battery recycling and started a battery factory project in Indonesia. Chile's copper company obtained a lithium mining quota, and the Chilean Congress passed a bill to speed up project approval [71][73]. - **Logic Analysis** - Lithium carbonate prices rose, but the industry has over - capacity. In July, the supply may increase, and the demand may increase slightly. The short - term rebound may not last, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [74]. - **Trading Strategy** - Unilateral: Short on rebounds. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [75][77].

Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The threat of additional tariffs by Trump has led to increased caution among key U.S. trading partners regarding new trade agreements, creating a stalemate that could negatively impact global stock markets, particularly tech giants [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to release final investigation results on tariffs related to national security sectors, including chips, pharmaceuticals, and industrial metals, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act [2] - Countries like India are taking a hard stance, unwilling to sign agreements that do not resolve their concerns regarding export tariffs and reciprocal tariffs [6][8] Group 2: Impact on Global Markets - The MSCI global index reached a historical high due to easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but uncertainty surrounding trade agreements poses a risk to market sentiment [1] - The ongoing trade negotiations, particularly regarding the automotive sector, are critical as they represent a significant portion of trade deficits and economic stability for countries like Japan [5] Group 3: Specific Tariff Details - A list of tariffs under investigation includes automobiles (25%), steel and aluminum (50%), and various other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with investigations initiated on specific dates [2] - The potential for new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor imports is particularly concerning for India, as these sectors are vital to its economy and export capabilities [8]

Group 1 - The upcoming results of the "232 clause" investigation by the U.S. Department of Commerce may lead to additional tariffs on imports of semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and critical minerals if deemed a threat to U.S. security [1] - The "232 tariffs" are expected to replace the current "reciprocal tariffs" as the July 9 deadline approaches, creating uncertainty in trade negotiations [1][4] - The U.S. aims to revitalize domestic manufacturing through the "232 tariffs," which are not aligned with general tariff goals, causing concerns among trading partners about potential new industry-specific tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - Japan is seeking a comprehensive solution to all potential U.S. tariff issues, emphasizing the importance of the automotive sector to its national interests [6] - India is unwilling to sign a trade agreement with the U.S. that does not simultaneously address industry tariffs and "reciprocal tariffs" [7] - France's President Macron insists on a "zero tariffs for zero tariffs" agreement, warning that Europe will respond with equivalent measures if the U.S. maintains a 10% tariff [8] Group 3 - The automotive industry is a significant point of contention in negotiations, with Germany's Chancellor Merz advocating for special treatment for the automotive sector, which is viewed as a challenging factor in reaching any agreement [8] - The European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) reports that manufacturers are losing "millions of euros" daily due to tariffs, with over 750,000 cars valued at €38.9 billion exported to the U.S. in 2024 [8]

白宫官员：232关税与药品命令无关。 ...