1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - **Steel**: The overall finished steel products are supported by raw material costs, with improving profits. The market may pre - trade market expectations, and steel prices will fluctuate moderately. The operating range of rebar is likely between 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil is between 3200 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed of steel and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the potential negative feedback from the decline in the profitability of steel enterprises [3]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore have improved, and the valuation has been repaired. The price will maintain high - level fluctuations. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the accumulation speed of port inventory has slowed down [22]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply of coking coal has limited marginal changes, but the profits of terminal steel mills are under pressure, and pig iron production is continuously decreasing. Coking coal supply and demand have turned into a slight surplus, and short - term coal prices will remain under pressure. For coke, due to the decline in coking coal cost, the immediate coking profit has been repaired. Subsequently, coke supply is expected to increase and may face inventory accumulation pressure [35]. - **Ferroalloys**: Ferroalloys face a fundamental situation of high self - inventory and weak demand. The cost center of gravity may shift downward, but the supply side maintains a trend of production reduction. The downside space of ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly. Although the recent strength of finished steel prices may drive the rebound of ferroalloys, they may return to their own fundamentals after the rebound [50]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. Without trend - based production cuts, the valuation has limited upward flexibility. The rigid demand expectation of soda ash has weakened further. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the upper - and middle - stream inventory is high, which restricts the price [68]. - **Glass**: In December, the expectation of cold - repair of glass production lines has resurfaced. Near - month contracts will follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key lies in the spot expectation in Hubei. In reality, with the recent acceleration of cold - repair and the expectation of further decline in daily melting, the short - term near - end of glass has strengthened, and the spot price has increased, but the sustainability remains to be observed [92]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3137 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3319 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the aggregated price of rebar in China was 3331 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3310 yuan/ton [10][12]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 32 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 5 yuan/ton on December 3, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of 01 contract was 799.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 22.5 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spot Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton [23]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.68 tons, and the port inventory was 15210.12 tons [29]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads**: On December 3, 2025, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was 162.5 yuan/ton, and that of coke was 179.5 yuan/ton [39]. - **Spot Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1580 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1430 yuan/ton [42]. - **Profits**: The immediate coking profit was 55 yuan/ton on December 3, 2025 [42]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 3, 2025, the spot price of silicon iron in Ningxia was 5200 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 14 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 3, 2025, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5530 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 48 yuan/ton [52]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of soda ash 05 contract was 1233 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 62 yuan/ton [69]. - **Spot Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [69]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of glass 05 contract was 1125 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 54 yuan/ton [93]. - **Spot Prices**: The 01 contract basis in Shahe was 37 yuan/ton on December 3, 2025 [93]. - **Sales and Production**: On November 28, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio of glass in Shahe was 162% [94].

消息面 9月8日，山东主流钢厂对焦炭首轮提降，落地后港口准一级湿熄焦报价1520元/吨，焦炭现货承压下 行。 9月9日，大商所焦炭期货仓单1310手，环比上个交易日增加100手。 鄂尔多斯市庚泰煤炭有限责任公司三星煤矿已通过复工复产检查验收，具备了复工复产条件。依据《煤 矿安全生产条例》(国务院令第774号)第四十九条规定，现予以公告。 机构观点 南华期货（603093）： 格林大华期货： 焦炭方面，本周一首轮提降落地，钢厂盈利率持续下滑至50%，预计焦炭仍有提降空间。【交易策略】 短期震荡，技术面来看，盘面下行趋势尚未结束，关注短期供给端消息扰动。 预计短期内煤焦盘面维持宽幅震荡格局，我们不建议将焦煤作为黑色系空配品种。焦炭受制于提降预 期，盘面表现或稍弱于焦煤，产业可关注低基差下的套保机会。 ...