投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-08-26 成本端⾛强，⿊⾊低位反弹 经过⼀周左右下跌后，⿊⾊进⼊估值区间低位。炉料供应约束仍存， 配合安全监管趋严等预期，价格反弹幅度较⼤。随着淡旺季交替时间 临近，钢材表需持续偏弱，不过尚未到终端需求验证时间节点。⽬前 ⿊⾊产业链各环节库存压⼒不⼤，处于旺季前补库窗⼝期，预计价格 有⼩幅反弹空间，需要继续关注后续⼏周需求表现和炉料供应恢复情 况。 经过一周左右下跌后，黑色进入估值区间低位。炉料供应约束仍存， 配合安全监管趋严等预期，价格反弹幅度较大。随着淡旺季交替时间 临近，钢材表需持续偏弱，不过尚未到终端需求验证时间节点。目前 黑色产业链各环节库存压力不大，处于旺季前补库窗口期，预计价格 有小幅反弹空间，需要继续关注后续几周需求表现和炉料供应恢复情 况。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山发运环比减少，45港口到港量小幅回落， 接近去年同期水平，总供应相对平稳；需求端铁水产量稳中微增， 目前来看月末限产影响有限，铁矿需求或将维持高位。库存方面， 本周最新铁矿石港口去库，总库存小幅下降。基本面利空驱动有限， 预计后市价格震荡。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the coking coal market cooled down, and the prices of the black building materials sector declined. However, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are relatively healthy, and there is still a chance to resonate with macro - level positive factors. Before new driving forces emerge, the prices are expected to oscillate within the current range, with limited downside potential [1][2][7] Summary by Category Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to the level of the same period last year. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to regular maintenance in steel mills but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts due to profit reasons in the short term is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased mainly because of the concentrated arrival of floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited. The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - **Supply**: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down or production - reduced coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. In terms of imports, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port affected the number of customs - cleared vehicles, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term imports of Mongolian coal may be restricted [3][13] - **Demand**: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders and no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still had support under healthy fundamentals [3][13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The ex - factory price of manganese ore increased, and the demand for manganese ore was supported by the recovery of the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers. With acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore gradually moved up. In an environment of industry profit restoration, the resumption of production by manufacturers continued, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policies with specific production - restriction requirements [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, in the long - term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3] Glass - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of original glass increased on a month - on - month basis, indicating speculative purchases by downstream players. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, the middle - stream sales increased, and the production - sales ratio of the upstream decreased significantly [4][15] - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, and there were no prominent internal contradictions, but there were many market - sentiment disturbances. The recent increase in coal prices strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals remained weak. In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [4][15] Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Although there are expectations of supply decline due to environmental concerns in Qinghai, the long - term supply pressure still exists, and production is expected to continue to increase [17] - **Demand**: Heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. The demand for light - soda ash from downstream industries is weak, mainly for periodic restocking. The market is affected by sentiment, and although the large monthly spread eases some delivery pressure, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is weak. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [17] Specific Products - **Steel**: Speculative sentiment was poor, spot trading was weak, and the supply increased while demand decreased during the off - season, with inventory accumulating. However, exports are expected to remain resilient. The fundamentals of steel are marginally weakening, but low inventory and potential production - restriction policies before the parade still provide short - term support [8] - **Iron Ore**: Demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and the fundamentals have limited negative driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply decreased while demand increased, and the fundamentals are gradually strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate [10] - **Coke**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the supply - demand structure remains tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to potential production - restriction policies related to the parade [12] - **Coking Coal**: Short - term supply is tight due to disturbances. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under healthy fundamentals [13] - **Manganese Silicon**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the upside potential of the price is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic [18]

Report Overview 1. Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] 2. Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei - Investment Consulting Number: Z0021184 - Date: August 3, 2025 [2] 3. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Viewpoint - Policy expectations have eased, leading to a slight decline in steel prices [3] Market Analysis 1. Logic - The expectation of anti-involution policies has eased, and the black market has returned to fundamental trading, resulting in a slight decline in steel prices [5] 2. Macro Environment Domestic Macro - The political statement on anti-involution has been revised, leading to eased policy expectations. The 30th July Politburo meeting removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the 1st July Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting, and changed "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity" to "promoting the governance of key industry production capacity" [5][8] Overseas Macro - The US core PCE index in June had a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating a phased tendency to maintain high interest rates. The conflicting demands between different political stances may lead to repeated views, which could harm the US dollar's credit [5][9] 3. Black Industry Chain - Demand has exceeded expectations, the decline of hot metal production is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. During the off-season, steel demand has exceeded expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits have expanded, and the decline of hot metal production is slow [5][11] Rebar Fundamental Data 1. Basis and Spread - The spread is approaching the risk-free window. Reverse arbitrage should take profit, and attention should be paid to positive arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3360 (-70) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3203 (-153) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 157 (-83) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -54 (-11) yuan/ton [14][18] 2. Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains at a low level. Demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [19][22][23] 3. Inventory - MS weekly data shows that steel inventories are at a low level and have not increased, indicating low pressure on the industrial chain [25] 4. Production Profit - The expectation of anti-involution policies has been revised, leading to a reduction in profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 335 (-92) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 285 (-46) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley electricity profit was 182 (-112) yuan/ton [31][35] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 1. Basis and Spread - Reverse arbitrage should take profit and focus on positive arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3410 (-90) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3401 (-106) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 9 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -2 (+9) yuan/ton [37] 2. Demand - Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and white goods production has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, and the export window has closed [38][41][42] 3. Inventory - MS weekly data shows that off-season demand has slightly exceeded expectations, and the accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventory has slowed down [44] 4. Production - MS weekly data shows that hot-rolled coil production has declined [46] 5. Production Profit - The expectation of anti-involution policies has been revised, leading to a reduction in profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 217 (-109) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 333 (+1) yuan/ton [48][51] Other Market Information 1. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread [52] 2. Variety Regional Difference - The report provides data on regional price differences for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil [60][61][62] 3. Cold-Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate [64][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market faces a conflict between macro and industrial factors, leading to intensified long - short game. The iron ore market experiences a redistribution of raw material profits, causing the ore price to decline under pressure. The coal - coke market shows wide - range fluctuations as market sentiment is realized. The ferroalloy market also sees intensified game due to emotional impacts on the market [3][6][79][132]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Steel Views - **Logic**: There is a conflict between macro and industrial factors, intensifying the long - short game. Overseas macro: The US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff, and the US - EU is expected to implement the same. The overseas macro situation is biased towards maintaining high - interest rates. Domestic macro: The speculative atmosphere in the coal - coke market is strong. The exchange has issued risk warnings and restricted positions, cooling down short - term supply - side trading. The demand side is waiting for the Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits expand, and the decline of hot metal is slow, with poor negative feedback transmission [6][8]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data**: - Iron water production is 242.2 (- 0.2) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6 tons. - Scrap steel production is 46.5 (- 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 tons. - For rebar, supply is 212.0 (+ 2.9) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 tons; demand is 216.6 (+ 10.4) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.4 tons; inventory is 538.6 (- 4.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 221.6 tons. - For hot - rolled coils, supply is 317.5 (- 3.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.7 tons; demand is 315.2 (- 8.5) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 tons; inventory is 345.2 (+ 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 85.0 tons [7]. 2. Iron Ore Views - **Logic**: Overseas shipments increased month - on - month driven by Brazil, and the destocking trend at domestic ports has temporarily stopped. Downstream construction remains at a high level, and there is still support for immediate consumption demand. The "anti - involution" theme continues to ferment, and the expectation of price intervention in multiple industries is strengthening. The iron ore futures price has corrected from its high level because it is at a disadvantage in profit distribution in this round of the market [81]. - **Supply Data**: - Global iron ore shipments are 3109.1 (+ 122.0) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 199.0 tons. - Australian shipments are 1571.2 (- 116.7) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 102.4 tons. - Brazilian shipments are 907.8 (+ 97.4) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 198.9 tons [80]. - **Contract Performance**: The price of the main 09 contract has fallen from its high, closing at 802.0 yuan/ton. The position is 529,000 lots, a decrease of 164,000 lots. The average daily trading volume is 519,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 135,000 lots [83]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price remains relatively strong. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) has increased from 870 to 878 yuan/ton [87]. 3. Coal - Coke Views - **Supply**: There are expectations of supply contraction. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong have resumed production, but some in other areas have reduced production, resulting in a slight decline in overall production. The sample coal mine raw coal production decreased by 2.27 tons week - on - week to 1225.61 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.16% week - on - week to 85.27% [134]. - **Demand**: Intermediate links are active, and there is a situation of short supply. Stimulated by policies, the black market has risen continuously, boosting the sentiment of the spot market. The speed of coke price increases has accelerated, and downstream coke enterprises and traders are actively purchasing [134]. - **Inventory**: The transfer of inventory rights from top to bottom is smooth. Coal mine inventories have decreased significantly, while downstream coke enterprises' raw material inventories have increased slightly. The sample coke enterprise raw material coal inventory increased by 0.20 days week - on - week to 7.04 days [134]. 4. Ferroalloy Views No detailed content provided in the given text.

Core Points - A criminal gang targeted elderly individuals by offering small gifts like rice and oil to lure them into signing up for mobile phone cards, which were then used to illegally profit over 300,000 yuan through the sale of verification codes [1][2] Group 1: Criminal Activities - The gang, led by a person named Cai, utilized "cat pool" devices to batch activate mobile phone cards and collect verification codes, posing a significant threat to personal information security [1][2] - The operation involved deceiving elderly individuals in community areas by promising benefits, ultimately leading them to unknowingly register mobile phone cards under their names [2] Group 2: Law Enforcement Response - The police successfully dismantled the criminal operation, seizing 30 mobile phones, 4 computers, over 1,200 mobile phone cards, and 7 "cat pool" devices [1] - The case highlights the need for increased awareness and protection measures for vulnerable groups, particularly the elderly, against such fraudulent schemes [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the steel market, with optimistic domestic and overseas macro - environments and coking coal price concessions as a supporting factor, the steel futures market is rising. The downstream's enthusiasm for covering short positions and spot - futures trading has increased, and steel mills' orders are good. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term [3]. - For iron ore, its short - term fundamentals are strengthening. Although there may be a slight weakening in the long - term, the contradictions are not significant. With high inventory, potential for increased shipments, and stable steel mill demand, it is still considered strong in the short term [20]. - Regarding coal and coke, the short - term market may continue to be strong due to the current good profitability of downstream steel mills. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap of coking coal will narrow, and the high iron - making rate may not be sustainable [29]. - In the ferroalloy market, driven by anti - cut - throat competition sentiment, it has been rising slowly. But considering the weakening cost and downstream demand in the off - season, it is expected to be weak in the long - term, with possible fluctuations [46]. - For soda ash, due to the expected disturbances and fundamental limitations, it is rising in a volatile manner. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to unexpected or policy - related factors [58]. - In the glass market, the price has moved up. The supply side has a co - existence of ignition and cold - repair, and the market needs to observe the improvement of market sentiment and the real downstream demand [89]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3191, 3207, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3320, 3327, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the aggregated rebar price in China was 3319 yuan/ton, and the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3340 yuan/ton [6][8]. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread of rebar was - 16 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was - 7 yuan/ton on July 18, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 753, 730, and 785 yuan/ton respectively [21]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 773 yuan/ton [21]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily average pig iron output on July 18, 2025, was 242.44 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13785.21 tons [24]. Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 49.5 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 - 01 spread was - 45 yuan/ton [30]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1300 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1030 yuan/ton [31]. - **Profit and Spread**: The on - site coking profit on July 18, 2025, was 73 yuan/ton, and the main ore - coke ratio was 0.517 [30]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 72 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 60 yuan/ton [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On July 18, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 176 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1306, 1216, and 1265 yuan/ton respectively [60]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1300 yuan/ton [61]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1240, 1081, and 1165 yuan/ton respectively [90]. - **Spot Prices**: On July 18, 2025, the 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 74 yuan/ton [90]. - **Production and Sales**: From July 8 - 13, 2025, the production - sales ratio in Shahe ranged from 91% to 120%, and in Hubei from 92% to 163% [92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Black Market**: The rebound is expected to continue, but it is advisable to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot and futures markets are strengthening jointly. Short - term price fluctuations after a rapid rebound should be noted. Key factors to watch include coal production data, the sustainability of high daily iron - water production at steel mills, and changes in imported coal customs clearance [10]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys are expected to follow the trend of the black market. The supply - demand pattern remains relatively loose. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From July 4th to July 11th, the prices of most black futures and spot products increased. For example, the futures price of rebar (RB2510) rose from 3072 to 3133, a 1.99% increase; the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai rose from 3170 to 3220, a 1.58% increase [7]. 02 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Rebar and Other Products**: Last week, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased. The price increase was mainly due to the news of production restrictions in Shanxi. Although it is still the off - season for demand, the rebound may continue, but shorting at high prices is recommended [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market sentiment is warming up, and the prices are rising. The supply - demand mismatch in coking coal has not been effectively resolved. Coke prices are rising due to increased coking coal costs. Attention should be paid to coal production, steel mill production, and imported coal customs clearance [10]. - **Ferroalloys**: Overseas tariff policies and domestic supply - side news affect the market. The supply of silicomanganese is slightly expanding, while that of ferrosilicon is slightly decreasing. Demand is weakening, and prices are expected to follow the black market [11]. 03 Variety Data - **Finished Products** - **Rebar**: Last week, the production was 216.66 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.42 million tons; the apparent demand was 221.50 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.37 million tons. The total inventory was 540.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.84 million tons [13][20]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the production was 323.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.00 million tons; the apparent demand was 322.51 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.86 million tons. The total inventory was 345.56 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 million tons [28][31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Coke**: The total inventory last week was 930.98 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26 million tons. The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 63 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan [50][66]. - **Coking Coal**: The total inventory last week was 2571.21 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.56 million tons. The daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 76.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 million tons [57][67]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Silicomanganese**: The weekly production of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises last week was 182,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,170 tons. The inventory on July 11th was 220,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [90][98]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The weekly production of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises last week was 98,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons. The inventory on July 11th was 70,240 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,240 tons [92][98].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: [Huabao Futures] Weekly Report on the Black Industry Chain [1] - **Report Date**: July 7, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - **Overall**: The market conditions of various varieties in the black industry chain are complex. There are opportunities for price rebounds in some varieties, but there are also risks affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and seasons. It is recommended to operate with caution and pay attention to relevant influencing factors [9][10][11] - **Specific Varieties**: - **成材**: Recommend a strategy of shorting on rebounds [9] - **Coal and Coke**: The price volatility intensifies, and the supply - demand pressure of coking coal eases slightly [10] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand pattern tends to be loose, and prices are expected to follow the black market trend without more independent market trends [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 01 周度行情回顾 - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From June 27 to July 4, 2025, the prices of most varieties in the black industry chain showed an upward trend. For example, the futures price of rebar RB2510 increased from 2995 to 3072, with a rise of 2.57%, and the spot price increased by 2.92%. However, the prices of some varieties such as coking coal and ferrosilicon decreased slightly [7] 3.2 02 本周黑色行情预判 - **成材** - **Logic**: Last week, the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric arc furnaces decreased, and the daily output of molten iron decreased. The steel price rebounded due to the anti - involution storm and production restrictions in some steel mills in Tangshan. However, it is currently the off - season of demand, and factors such as high temperature and rainfall may affect the height of the rebound [9] - **View**: Short on rebounds [9] - **Later Concerns**: Macroeconomic policies and downstream demand [9] - **Coal and Coke** - **Logic**: After the end of the safety production month and the inspection, some coal mines resumed production, which cooled the bullish sentiment. The anti - involution and capacity - reduction policies also disturbed the market sentiment, and the price volatility intensified [10] - **View**: The market sentiment is volatile recently, the supply - demand pressure of coking coal eases slightly, and the prices of coal and coke fluctuate more violently [10] - **Later Concerns**: Coal production data, the sustainability of high daily output of molten iron in steel mills, and changes in imported coal clearance [10] - **Ferroalloys** - **Logic**: The central government's policy to regulate low - price competition in enterprises affected the market. On the supply side, the production and operating rates of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased; on the demand side, the demand increased slightly last week but may weaken in the future; on the inventory side, silicon - manganese inventory accumulated slightly, and ferrosilicon inventory decreased slightly; on the cost side, the cost support of silicon - manganese increased, and that of ferrosilicon was stable [11] - **View**: The macro - environment has warmed up, and the supply - demand pattern of ferroalloys tends to be loose. Prices are expected to follow the black market trend. Pay attention to supply - side disturbances and environmental protection requirements [11] - **Later Concerns**: Tariff policy evolution, domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits and production, and domestic production restrictions [11] 3.3 03 品种数据 3.3.1 成材 - **Rebar** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 221.08 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.24 million tons; the apparent demand was 224.87 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.96 million tons [13] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 545.21 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.79 million tons [20] - **Basis**: In Shanghai, the basis for the 10 - month contract was 98 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 13 yuan/ton [34] - **Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 328.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9 million tons; the apparent demand was 324.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 million tons [26] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 344.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.77 million tons [31] - **Basis**: In Shanghai, the basis for the 10 - month contract was 49 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [41] 3.3.2 煤焦 - **Coke** - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 930.72 million tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.17 million tons [49] - **Profit and Production**: The average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 52 yuan last week, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan; the daily output was 64.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons [64] - **Basis**: The basis for the 1 - month contract of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke was - 193 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton [71] - **Coking Coal** - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 2566.65 million tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.11 million tons [56] - **Production**: The daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 73.9 million tons last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 million tons [65] - **Basis**: The basis for the 1 - month contract of Meng 5 clean coal was - 96 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week increase of 17 yuan/ton [74] 3.3.3 铁合金 - **Spot Price**: The price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port increased by 0.5 yuan/dry ton degree week - on - week; the spot price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia remained flat week - on - week; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [80] - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese sample enterprises was 22.23 million tons on July 4, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 million tons; the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 6.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.244 million tons [11] - **Production and Demand**: The production of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased week - on - week; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon of the five major steel varieties increased by 0.72% and 0.63% respectively week - on - week [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall black market, it is recommended to adopt a bearish mindset and try shorting on rebounds due to weak macro and fundamental drivers, cautious market sentiment, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [9] - Iron ore is expected to run strongly in the short term as it has strong demand resilience. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 710 - 740 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE08 contract price is expected to be in the range of 93 - 97 US dollars/ton [10] - Coking coal and coke may continue the oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short term as recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the supply - surplus pressure to some extent [11] - Ferroalloys are expected to run weakly in a narrow range. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose with high inventory pressure, while the supply of ferrosilicon is tight and its supply - demand pattern is slightly better [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various varieties in the black industry chain showed different changes from June 20 to June 27, 2025. For example, the closing price of the rebar RB2510 futures contract rose by 0.10% to 2995 yuan/ton, and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.32% to 3080 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Overall Black Market**: The average capacity utilization rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased slightly, while the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is recommended to be bearish [9] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in a seasonal increase, but the demand is strong with high daily iron - water production. The inventory is expected to accumulate slightly, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [10] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the supply pressure, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [11] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese is loose with high inventory pressure, while the supply of ferrosilicon is tight. Overall, it is expected to run weakly in a narrow range [12] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 217.84 tons, the apparent demand was 219.91 tons, the total inventory was 549.00 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2.07 tons. The basis in Shanghai and Beijing also showed different changes [14][21][33] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 327.24 tons, the apparent demand was 326.25 tons, the total inventory was 341.16 tons, and the inventory increased by 0.99 tons. The basis in Shanghai also changed [26][30][40] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory in 45 ports increased by 36.07 tons to 13930.23 tons last week. The inventory and consumption of 247 steel mills' imported ore, as well as the global shipping volume, also had corresponding changes [42][53][70] 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - The total inventory of coke decreased by 12.02 tons to 940.89 tons last week, and the total inventory of coking coal decreased by 39.64 tons to 2570.76 tons. The profitability, production capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of independent coking enterprises also changed [109][116][122] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - The spot prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon increased slightly last week. The production, demand, inventory, and import volume of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon also had different changes [141][145][158]