Report Date - The report is dated October 10, 2025 [1] Steel Industry Core View - Yesterday's upward movement in the steel futures market was a rebound driven by events and macro - optimistic sentiment, lacking fundamental support. With the core supply - demand contradiction unresolved, upward resistance is significant, and the market is expected to remain under pressure, but the impact of favorable macro - policies should be watched [3] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3103 yuan/ton, up from 3096 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3285 yuan/ton, down slightly from 3286 yuan/ton on October 9 [4] - **Spot Prices**: The aggregated rebar price in China on October 10 was 3262 yuan/ton, up from 3257 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai remained at 3350 yuan/ton [7][9] - **Spread Data**: The rebar 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 56 yuan/ton, up from - 63 yuan/ton on October 9; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 month spread remained at - 7 yuan/ton [4] Iron Ore Industry Core View - With the seasonal recovery of terminal demand, marginal improvement in fundamentals, and continuous supply - side disturbances, iron ore prices are expected to show an "easily rising and hard - falling" trend in the short term [19] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 795 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the previous day [20] - **Spot Prices**: The price of Rizhao PB powder on October 10 was 789 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day [20] Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output on October 10 was 241.54 tons, down 0.27 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port ore handling volume was 327 tons, down 9.4 tons from the previous week [23] Coking Coal and Coke Industry Core View - In the fourth quarter, domestic coking coal mine production is restricted by policies. The winter storage this year is expected to be better than last year, providing phased support for coking coal and coke prices. However, the rebound height and sustainability of prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel [29] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: The coking coal 01 - 05 month spread on October 10 was - 98 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the coke 01 - 05 month spread was - 152.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day [33] - **Spot Prices**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal on October 10 was 1530 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [34] Ferroalloy Industry Core View - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five - year historical period, while demand has not improved significantly during the peak season. There is a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand. Cost factors and capital outflows also affect prices [43] Price Data - **Silicon Iron**: On October 10, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 94 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from the previous day [44] - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia on October 10 was 270 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous day [48] Soda Ash Industry Core View - Market sentiment fluctuations increase soda ash price volatility. With the second - phase ignition of Yuanxing, future supply pressure persists. The supply - demand pattern remains one of strong supply and weak demand, although exports have alleviated some domestic pressure [57] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1332 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day [58] - **Spot Prices**: The heavy - soda market price in North China on October 10 was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [61] Glass Industry Core View - High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and weak real - world demand limit glass prices. The supply - demand pattern in the near - term is one of strong supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to supply, cost, and inventory factors [85] Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 10, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1334 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day [86] - **Spot Prices**: The basis of the glass 05 contract in Shahe on October 10 was - 99 yuan/ton, up 10.8 yuan from the previous day [86]

节假日期间，五大材表需表现疲软，库存累积速度明显快于往年同期，库销比已升至近年同期最高水平。尤其热卷库存累积幅度显著，表明此前基本面相对偏强的 品种也呈现出压力。整体来看，钢材市场仍面临较大的去库压力。当前长流程钢厂尚有一定利润空间，自主减产动力不足，而需求端暂未出现明显超预期的好转。 在此背景下，高供应与需求不足之间的矛盾持续显现，负反馈减产压力逐步积累，节前原料端呈现明显补库支撑，但在钢材需求不足状态下预计节后原料补库动力 较弱。综合来看，基本面偏弱，盘面或承压运行。 | 螺纹、热卷盘面价格. | | | 螺纹、热卷月差. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-30 | | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-30 | | 螺纹钢01合约收盘价 | 3096 | 3072 | 螺纹01-05月差 | -63 | -56 | | 螺纹钢05合约收盘价 | 3159 | 3128 | 螺纹05-10月差 | 139 | 139 | | 螺纹钢10合约收盘价 | 3020 | 2989 | 螺纹10-01月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **成材**: Short - term outlook is oscillating with a slight upward bias, but the upside is limited. The trading logic is mainly based on industry fundamentals, with the price of finished steel showing signs of recovery, yet the weak downstream demand may constrain the price rebound [9]. - **煤焦**: In the short - term, there is an increase in both supply and demand. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory before the National Day holiday, which supports the confidence in price support. The futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **铁合金**: Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon continue to face a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with pressure on inventory. However, the short - term restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support prices. It is expected that prices will be in a weak consolidation state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most black commodity futures and spot prices increased. For example, the futures price of coke J2601 rose from 1625.5 to 1738.5, a 6.95% increase, and the spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke increased from 1390 to 1500, a 7.91% increase [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast - **成材** - **Logic**: The blast furnace utilization rate and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased, while the average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. The finished steel rebounded last week, but the weak downstream situation remains unchanged. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set an average annual growth target of about 4% for the steel industry in the next two years [9]. - **View**: Short - term oscillation with a slight upward bias. - **Future Focus**: Macroeconomic policies and downstream demand. - **煤焦** - **Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp last week, and the futures price of coal and coke oscillated with an upward bias. On the spot side, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise prices. The environmental protection policy in Tangshan affected market sentiment, but the overall rigid demand for raw materials remained strong [10]. - **View**: Short - term supply and demand both increase, and the market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - **Future Focus**: The resumption process of coal, coke, and steel production and changes in imported coal clearance. - **铁合金** - **Logic**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp. Domestically, the market has entered the traditional peak season, but demand is still weaker than expected. On the supply side, the output and operating rate of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while those of ferrosilicon remained stable. On the demand side, the weekly demand for silicon manganese and ferrosilicon of the five major steel types decreased for three consecutive weeks. On the inventory side, silicon manganese inventory increased significantly, while ferrosilicon inventory decreased. The cost of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon has certain support [11]. - **View**: Prices are expected to be in a weak consolidation state. - **Future Focus**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits, production, and domestic production restrictions. 03. Variety Data - **成材** - **螺纹钢**: Last week, the output was 206.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.48 tons; the apparent demand was 210.03 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.96 tons. The total inventory was 650.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.58 tons [13][20]. - **热轧**: Last week, the output was 326.49 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the apparent demand was 321.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.34 tons. The total inventory was 377.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.67 tons [24][29]. - **基差**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and delivery months showed different changes, such as the 1 - month basis of rebar in Shanghai being 88 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [32]. - **煤焦** - **焦炭**: The total inventory last week was 915.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.99 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 66.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 tons [47]. - **焦煤**: The total inventory last week was 2550.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.68 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 940.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.9 tons [55]. - **Other Data**: Data such as the profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises, inventory availability days, and the ratio of coke to coking coal prices also showed corresponding changes [63][67]. - **铁合金** - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon all increased last week. For example, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia (6517) increased from 5650 to 5730 yuan/ton [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore increased. The inventory of silicon manganese increased significantly, while the inventory of ferrosilicon decreased [81][92]. - **Output and Demand**: The output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while the output of ferrosilicon remained stable. The demand for both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon decreased for three consecutive weeks [83][89]. - **Import and Production**: In July, the import of manganese ore was 274.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.23%. In August, the production of silicon manganese was 90.93 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94% [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Viewpoint**: The report analyzes the black - chain industry, including various products such as steel products, iron ore, coal - coke, and ferroalloys. It points out that different products have different market trends, with overall market conditions affected by factors like supply - demand relationships, production capacity utilization, and macro - policies [9][10][13]. - **Specific Product Viewpoints**: - **Steel Products**: The steel market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with steel prices expected to oscillate at a low level. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by pre - holiday restocking. The price of the main contract (2601 contract) is expected to range between 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market FE10 price of about 105 - 108 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: In the short term, the rapid resumption of production at both the supply and demand ends of coal - coke, especially the rapid increase in hot metal production, supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Pre - holiday restocking by downstream industries is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The market has entered the traditional peak season, but the short - term demand is still not up to expectations. The market sentiment is cautious. Ferroalloys maintain a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory pressure increasing, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 5th to September 12th, 2025, the prices of various products showed different trends. For example, the price of the RB2601 contract of rebar decreased by 16 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%, and the spot price of HRB400E: Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.62%. The price of the HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.72%, and the spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.59% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Steel Products**: The supply is strong and the demand is weak. Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance decreased significantly, and the scale of resumption of production increased. The daily average hot metal output increased, but the downstream demand was weak, dragging down steel prices. The overall trend is weak [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to increase steadily. Although the demand has increased in the short term due to pre - holiday restocking, in the medium term, the supply - demand relationship is changing from tight to balanced. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - **Coal - Coke**: The futures prices oscillated last week, with a slight weekly decline. The coking coal market is generally weak, but there are expectations for pre - National Day restocking. The rapid increase in hot metal production supports the demand for raw materials, and pre - holiday restocking is expected to boost market sentiment [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: The demand is not up to expectations for the time being. The supply is relatively high, and the inventory is increasing. The prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. 3.3 Product Data 3.3.1 Steel Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 211.93 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.75 tons; the apparent demand was 198.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.00 tons. The total inventory was 653.86 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.86 tons [15][23]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 325.14 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.90 tons; the apparent demand was 326.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.80 tons. The total inventory was 373.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 tons [29][33]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Port Inventory**: This week, the total import ore port inventory was 13849.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.15 tons; the port Australian ore inventory was 5806.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69.51 tons; the port Brazilian ore inventory was 5228.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 109.26 tons [44]. - **Steel Mill Inventory and Consumption**: This week, the inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 53.18 tons; the daily consumption was 296.65 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 15.98 tons [54]. 3.3.3 Coal - Coke - **Coke Inventory**: Last week, the total coke inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + ports) was 906.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.95 tons [84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Last week, the total coking coal inventory (coke enterprises + steel mills + coal mines + ports + coal washing plants) was 2483.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 62.28 tons [98]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Spot Prices**: Last week, the price of semi - carbonated manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/dry ton degree, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 yuan; the spot price of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5280 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan [121]. - **Production and Demand**: Last week, the output of 187 independent ferromanganese enterprises was 214130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1295 tons; the demand for ferromanganese in five major steel products decreased by 1.09% week - on - week [129][133].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [5]. - The mid - term outlooks for individual varieties such as iron ore, coke, etc. are also "oscillation" [7][8][10][11] Core Viewpoints - The black market has limited upside potential due to weak terminal demand expectations, but there is support from supply disruptions and downstream restocking needs. The market will mainly oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and terminal demand performance [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Market Analysis - The black market's upward movement lacks drive, with the previous day's gains mostly erased and coking coal leading the decline. Supply constraints for furnace materials remain, and the downside space for prices is limited. Steel apparent demand is weak, and it is in the restocking window before the peak season. If there is topic - driven news, there is a small rebound space; otherwise, it will oscillate. Attention should be paid to future demand and furnace material supply recovery [1]. By Variety Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments decreased, 45 - port arrivals slightly declined, and total supply is relatively stable. Iron ore demand is expected to remain high as iron - making water production increases slightly. Port inventories decreased slightly. With limited negative driving factors in the fundamentals, prices are expected to oscillate [2][7][8]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have resumed production, but some are still restricted by accidents and safety inspections. Import volumes are high but have recently declined briefly. Coking coal's short - term rigid demand has slightly decreased, and some mines have inventory accumulation, but overall inventory pressure is not significant. The short - term futures market still has support [2][12]. Coke - The eighth round of price increases has started, with regional differentiation. Some areas' coking production is restricted. Upstream coking enterprises' inventories are still low, and short - term supply and demand remain tight under simultaneous coking and steel production restrictions. Before the parade, the futures market still has support [11]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Before the parade, manufacturers' raw material restocking is nearly finished, port prices are loosening, and supply pressure is increasing. In the long - term, the supply - demand relationship may become looser, and prices may face downward pressure [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate. However, in the long - term, the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, and there are concerns in the fundamentals [2]. Glass - After the futures price decline, the spot market sentiment has cooled. Supply is expected to remain stable, and there is some inventory accumulation upstream. Cost support has strengthened due to rising coal prices, but the fundamentals are still weak, and short - term futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [2][13]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the futures price decline, spot trading volume has increased slightly. In the long - term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2][5][15]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has decreased, and the fundamentals' contradictions are not prominent. Due to the pressure on finished product prices, electric furnace profits are low, but resources are still tight, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. For individual products, most are rated as "oscillating", including iron ore, coke,焦煤, glass,纯碱, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After about a week of decline, the black building materials entered the lower end of the valuation range. With supply constraints on furnace materials and expectations of stricter safety supervision, prices rebounded significantly. As the off - peak and peak seasons are approaching, the apparent demand for steel remains weak, but it's not yet the time to verify terminal demand. With low inventory pressure in each link of the black industry chain and in the pre - peak season restocking window, prices are expected to have a small rebound space. Attention should be paid to future demand performance and furnace material supply recovery [2]. - Overall, after consecutive days of decline, black prices have fallen near the cost support level, and demand negatives have been gradually digested. With supply disturbances in furnace materials and downstream restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebound. However, the weak expectation of peak - season terminal demand remains, suppressing the upside space. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Core Logic: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to last year's level, with relatively stable total supply. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly, and the end - of - month production restrictions have limited impact, so iron ore demand is expected to remain high. In terms of inventory, the iron ore ports destocked this week, with a slight decrease in total inventory. There are limited bearish drivers in the fundamentals, and the price is expected to oscillate [3]. - Outlook: With high iron ore demand, stable supply and inventory, and limited bearish fundamental drivers, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Core Logic: Some coal mines in the production area have resumed production, but some are still restricted by accidents and other factors. For example, a 3 - million - ton low - sulfur lean primary coking coal mine in Xiangning, Linfen, Shanxi has been shut down for three days. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles, but there was a short - term decline in the past two days due to the Mongolian customs system. On the demand side, the eighth round of coke price increase has started again, showing regional differentiation. In some areas, coking production is restricted, and the short - term rigid demand for coking coal has slightly declined. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and spot transactions have weakened. Some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, there is no obvious inventory pressure. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the short - term disk still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. - Outlook: With continuous supply disturbances and difficult significant supply increase before the parade, short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the short - term disk still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [13]. 3.3 Alloys 3.3.1 Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: Yesterday, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, and the black sector was strong, with manganese silicon oscillating strongly. Manganese silicon manufacturers stocked up on raw materials before the parade, and the restocking is nearly over. With increased arrivals and rising supply pressure, the port ore price has weakened from its high level. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and finished product output remains high. Under the environment of industry profit repair, the resumption of production by manufacturers continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be downward pressure on the manganese silicon price [3]. - Outlook: Currently, the market inventory pressure is controllable, and the cost provides support, so the short - term downward space for the manganese silicon price is limited. But in the medium - to - long - term, as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction in raw material costs [17]. 3.3.2 Silicon Iron - Core Logic: The current market inventory pressure of silicon iron is not large. In the short - term, the silicon iron price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the supply - demand gap will gradually be filled, and there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The upside space of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. - Outlook: Currently, the market inventory pressure is not large, and the cost provides support, so the short - term downward adjustment space for the silicon iron price is limited. But the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move down. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18][20]. 3.4 Glass - Core Logic: After the glass futures price fell, the sentiment in the spot market declined, with mid - stream shipments and a significant decline in upstream production and sales. On the supply side, there is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream has slightly accumulated inventory, with no prominent self - contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances. Recently, the rising coal price has strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak [3]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the raw material price is strong. After the transaction of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still gives a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [15]. 3.5 Steel - Core Logic: There are still contraction disturbances in the supply of coking coal and iron ore. Under the background of high pig iron production, the cost has an upward driving force, and the disk has strong support. The overall spot steel transactions are average, mainly at low prices, and the market sentiment is still cautious. Last week, the production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. As the off - peak season ends, mid - and downstream enterprises are restocking before the parade. The apparent demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains highly resilient, and inventory continues to accumulate under high production. The supply - demand fluctuations of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are limited, with both supply and demand of the five major steel products increasing, and the inventory accumulation speed slowing down [8]. - Outlook: As the off - peak season ends, steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. Both supply and demand will be affected before and after the parade. The blast furnace production restriction situation needs to be tracked, and there may be shutdowns of construction sites and factories in Beijing and surrounding areas. The pre - parade restocking of raw materials may end. Recently, there are continuous disturbances in the cost supply side. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely. Future focus should be on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand performance [8]. 3.6 Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, the eighth round of coke price increase has started again, combined with continuous rumors of production restrictions and strengthened cost support from coking coal, coke prices were strong yesterday. In the spot market, the quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port is 1480 yuan/ton (+10). On the supply side, the seventh round of price increases has been fully implemented, and coking enterprise profits have quickly recovered. As the parade approaches, coking production in some areas is gradually restricted, while others maintain normal production. On the demand side, downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. Affected by the parade, transportation in some areas is restricted, so local steel mill inventories are still low, and some coking enterprises have started to accumulate inventory. Currently, the inventory of upstream coking enterprises is still at a low level, and under simultaneous production restrictions on coking and steel, the short - term supply - demand remains tight [12]. - Outlook: As the parade approaches, the expectation of coke production restrictions may be stronger than that of steel mills. The short - term tight supply situation will continue. With the start of the eighth round of price increases and strengthened cost support from coking coal, the short - term disk has strong support [12]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average tax - excluded price of crushed scrap in East China is 2174 (+5) yuan/ton, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference in East China is 1032 (+24) yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the arrival volume of scrap steel decreased month - on - month this week. In terms of demand, the profit of electric arc furnaces is low due to the pressure on finished products recently. The profit and loss of electric arc furnaces during off - peak electricity hours in East China is at a tight balance, and there are losses in many other areas during off - peak hours. The daily consumption of scrap steel in electric arc furnaces has decreased month - on - month. In the blast furnace sector, pig iron production has slightly increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also slightly increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory has slightly increased, and the available inventory days have dropped to a relatively low level [10]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low electric arc furnace profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [10]. 3.8 Sodium Carbonate - Core Logic: The delivered price of heavy - quality sodium carbonate in Shahe is 1230 - 1280 yuan/ton (-). The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, and as the delivery approaches, the fundamental logic returns, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term suppression. The production is at a high level, and supply pressure remains. There is no short - term disturbance to production, and production is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, heavy - quality sodium carbonate is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There are still ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the float glass daily melting volume is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out initially, currently at 86,500 tons. The demand for heavy - quality sodium carbonate is flat. In the light - quality sodium carbonate sector, downstream procurement is flat, but the overall downstream restocking sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. Sentiment affects the disk. As the shipping problem eases, mid - stream inventory accumulates, and downstream acceptance is weak [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. After the disk price drops, there is a small increase in spot - futures transactions. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the coking coal market cooled down, and the prices of the black building materials sector declined. However, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry are relatively healthy, and there is still a chance to resonate with macro - level positive factors. Before new driving forces emerge, the prices are expected to oscillate within the current range, with limited downside potential [1][2][7] Summary by Category Iron Element - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports returned to the level of the same period last year. Supply is relatively stable with no obvious increase [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel enterprises reached the highest level in the same period of the past three years. Iron - water production decreased slightly due to regular maintenance in steel mills but remained at a high level year - on - year. The possibility of production cuts due to profit reasons in the short term is small. Attention should be paid to whether there are production - restriction policies in the second half of the month [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of iron ore in port areas increased mainly because of the concentrated arrival of floating cargoes, but the inventory accumulation was limited. The fundamentals have limited negative driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate in the future [2] Carbon Element - **Supply**: In the main production areas, some coal mines reduced production due to factors such as changing working faces and over - production inspections. Although some previously shut - down or production - reduced coal mines are gradually resuming production, short - term supply disruptions will continue. In terms of imports, the adjustment of the error threshold for the actual weight and declared weight of customs - cleared vehicles at the Ganqimao Port affected the number of customs - cleared vehicles, and the decline in the mining capacity of the TT mining area restricted coking coal transportation. Short - term imports of Mongolian coal may be restricted [3][13] - **Demand**: Coke production remained stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal was strong. Coal mines had many pre - sold orders and no obvious inventory pressure. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still had support under healthy fundamentals [3][13] Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The ex - factory price of manganese ore increased, and the demand for manganese ore was supported by the recovery of the start - up rate of manganese - silicon manufacturers. With acceptable port inventory pressure, the quotation center of manganese ore gradually moved up. In an environment of industry profit restoration, the resumption of production by manufacturers continued, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. Attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policies with specific production - restriction requirements [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, in the long - term, as the supply - demand gap is expected to be filled, there are still hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3] Glass - **Demand**: In the off - season, demand declined, deep - processing orders decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory days of original glass increased on a month - on - month basis, indicating speculative purchases by downstream players. After the decline in the futures market, the sentiment in the spot market cooled down, the middle - stream sales increased, and the production - sales ratio of the upstream decreased significantly [4][15] - **Supply**: There is still one production line waiting to produce glass. The upstream inventory decreased slightly, and there were no prominent internal contradictions, but there were many market - sentiment disturbances. The recent increase in coal prices strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals remained weak. In the short term, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate widely [4][15] Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply situation has not changed. Although there are expectations of supply decline due to environmental concerns in Qinghai, the long - term supply pressure still exists, and production is expected to continue to increase [17] - **Demand**: Heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The daily melting volume of float glass is expected to be stable, while the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. The demand for light - soda ash from downstream industries is weak, mainly for periodic restocking. The market is affected by sentiment, and although the large monthly spread eases some delivery pressure, the downstream's willingness to take delivery is weak. In the long run, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [17] Specific Products - **Steel**: Speculative sentiment was poor, spot trading was weak, and the supply increased while demand decreased during the off - season, with inventory accumulating. However, exports are expected to remain resilient. The fundamentals of steel are marginally weakening, but low inventory and potential production - restriction policies before the parade still provide short - term support [8] - **Iron Ore**: Demand is at a high level, supply is stable, and the fundamentals have limited negative driving forces. The price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply decreased while demand increased, and the fundamentals are gradually strengthening. The price is expected to oscillate [10] - **Coke**: After the sixth round of price increases was implemented, the supply - demand structure remains tight in the short term, and the futures market still has support. Attention should be paid to potential production - restriction policies related to the parade [12] - **Coking Coal**: Short - term supply is tight due to disturbances. After the exchange restricted positions, the sentiment declined, but the short - term futures market still has support under healthy fundamentals [13] - **Manganese Silicon**: The current market inventory pressure is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. However, the supply pressure is expected to increase in the future, and the upside potential of the price is limited [17] - **Silicon Iron**: The current market inventory pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals, and the upside potential of the price is not optimistic [18]

Report Overview 1. Report Title - Weekly Report on Rebar & Hot-Rolled Coil [1] 2. Analyst Information - Senior Analyst: Li Yafei - Investment Consulting Number: Z0021184 - Date: August 3, 2025 [2] 3. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Viewpoint - Policy expectations have eased, leading to a slight decline in steel prices [3] Market Analysis 1. Logic - The expectation of anti-involution policies has eased, and the black market has returned to fundamental trading, resulting in a slight decline in steel prices [5] 2. Macro Environment Domestic Macro - The political statement on anti-involution has been revised, leading to eased policy expectations. The 30th July Politburo meeting removed the word "low-price" from "low-price disorderly competition" compared to the 1st July Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting, and changed "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity" to "promoting the governance of key industry production capacity" [5][8] Overseas Macro - The US core PCE index in June had a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating a phased tendency to maintain high interest rates. The conflicting demands between different political stances may lead to repeated views, which could harm the US dollar's credit [5][9] 3. Black Industry Chain - Demand has exceeded expectations, the decline of hot metal production is slow, and the negative feedback transmission is not smooth. During the off-season, steel demand has exceeded expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits have expanded, and the decline of hot metal production is slow [5][11] Rebar Fundamental Data 1. Basis and Spread - The spread is approaching the risk-free window. Reverse arbitrage should take profit, and attention should be paid to positive arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3360 (-70) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3203 (-153) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 157 (-83) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -54 (-11) yuan/ton [14][18] 2. Demand - New home sales remain at a low level, indicating weak market confidence. Second-hand home sales remain high, reflecting the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains at a low level. Demand is in the off-season, and indicators such as cement shipments have declined seasonally [19][22][23] 3. Inventory - MS weekly data shows that steel inventories are at a low level and have not increased, indicating low pressure on the industrial chain [25] 4. Production Profit - The expectation of anti-involution policies has been revised, leading to a reduction in profits. Last week, the rebar spot profit was 335 (-92) yuan/ton, the main contract profit was 285 (-46) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley electricity profit was 182 (-112) yuan/ton [31][35] Hot-Rolled Coil Fundamental Data 1. Basis and Spread - Reverse arbitrage should take profit and focus on positive arbitrage. Last week, the Shanghai hot-rolled coil spot price was 3410 (-90) yuan/ton, the main futures price was 3401 (-106) yuan/ton, the basis of the main contract was 9 (+16) yuan/ton, and the 10-01 spread was -2 (+9) yuan/ton [37] 2. Demand - Demand has weakened month-on-month. The US has imposed tariffs on steel household appliances, and white goods production has entered the seasonal off-season. The internal and external price spread has converged, and the export window has closed [38][41][42] 3. Inventory - MS weekly data shows that off-season demand has slightly exceeded expectations, and the accumulation of hot-rolled coil inventory has slowed down [44] 4. Production - MS weekly data shows that hot-rolled coil production has declined [46] 5. Production Profit - The expectation of anti-involution policies has been revised, leading to a reduction in profits. Last week, the hot-rolled coil spot profit was 217 (-109) yuan/ton, and the main contract profit was 333 (+1) yuan/ton [48][51] Other Market Information 1. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities for the expansion of the cold-hot spread and the medium plate - hot-rolled coil spread [52] 2. Variety Regional Difference - The report provides data on regional price differences for rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil [60][61][62] 3. Cold-Rolled Coil and Medium Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report provides seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold-rolled coil and medium plate [64][65]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market faces a conflict between macro and industrial factors, leading to intensified long - short game. The iron ore market experiences a redistribution of raw material profits, causing the ore price to decline under pressure. The coal - coke market shows wide - range fluctuations as market sentiment is realized. The ferroalloy market also sees intensified game due to emotional impacts on the market [3][6][79][132]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Steel Views - **Logic**: There is a conflict between macro and industrial factors, intensifying the long - short game. Overseas macro: The US - Japan trade agreement sets a 15% tariff, and the US - EU is expected to implement the same. The overseas macro situation is biased towards maintaining high - interest rates. Domestic macro: The speculative atmosphere in the coal - coke market is strong. The exchange has issued risk warnings and restricted positions, cooling down short - term supply - side trading. The demand side is waiting for the Politburo meeting. In the black产业链, steel demand in the off - season exceeds expectations, steel inventories are low, steel mill profits expand, and the decline of hot metal is slow, with poor negative feedback transmission [6][8]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data**: - Iron water production is 242.2 (- 0.2) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6 tons. - Scrap steel production is 46.5 (- 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 tons. - For rebar, supply is 212.0 (+ 2.9) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 tons; demand is 216.6 (+ 10.4) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.4 tons; inventory is 538.6 (- 4.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 221.6 tons. - For hot - rolled coils, supply is 317.5 (- 3.6) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 10.7 tons; demand is 315.2 (- 8.5) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 tons; inventory is 345.2 (+ 2.3) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 85.0 tons [7]. 2. Iron Ore Views - **Logic**: Overseas shipments increased month - on - month driven by Brazil, and the destocking trend at domestic ports has temporarily stopped. Downstream construction remains at a high level, and there is still support for immediate consumption demand. The "anti - involution" theme continues to ferment, and the expectation of price intervention in multiple industries is strengthening. The iron ore futures price has corrected from its high level because it is at a disadvantage in profit distribution in this round of the market [81]. - **Supply Data**: - Global iron ore shipments are 3109.1 (+ 122.0) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 199.0 tons. - Australian shipments are 1571.2 (- 116.7) tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 102.4 tons. - Brazilian shipments are 907.8 (+ 97.4) tons, with a year - on - year increase of 198.9 tons [80]. - **Contract Performance**: The price of the main 09 contract has fallen from its high, closing at 802.0 yuan/ton. The position is 529,000 lots, a decrease of 164,000 lots. The average daily trading volume is 519,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 135,000 lots [83]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price remains relatively strong. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) has increased from 870 to 878 yuan/ton [87]. 3. Coal - Coke Views - **Supply**: There are expectations of supply contraction. Some coal mines in Shanxi and Shandong have resumed production, but some in other areas have reduced production, resulting in a slight decline in overall production. The sample coal mine raw coal production decreased by 2.27 tons week - on - week to 1225.61 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.16% week - on - week to 85.27% [134]. - **Demand**: Intermediate links are active, and there is a situation of short supply. Stimulated by policies, the black market has risen continuously, boosting the sentiment of the spot market. The speed of coke price increases has accelerated, and downstream coke enterprises and traders are actively purchasing [134]. - **Inventory**: The transfer of inventory rights from top to bottom is smooth. Coal mine inventories have decreased significantly, while downstream coke enterprises' raw material inventories have increased slightly. The sample coke enterprise raw material coal inventory increased by 0.20 days week - on - week to 7.04 days [134]. 4. Ferroalloy Views No detailed content provided in the given text.