1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market in 2026 will present a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Overseas disturbances are frequent, but the weak terminal demand fundamentally restricts the profit repair space of the black industry chain, making it difficult to launch a trend - rising market [2][47] - In the second quarter, it is less likely for China to implement administrative control measures such as restricting coal mine开工 and production. Domestic coking coal production will remain at a high level. The import of coking coal will show structural differentiation, with the total import volume remaining stable [2][47] - In the short term, coke production will increase slightly due to the improvement of chemical product profits. In the long run, the overall profit of the black industry chain is still shrinking. The coking industry will face double squeeze from upstream coal mines and downstream steel mills, and the production may decline from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter [2][47] - The profit repair of the coking industry faces dual constraints. The slowdown of steel exports and the weak domestic demand in traditional fields such as real estate and infrastructure put pressure on terminal demand [2][47] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review in the First Quarter of 2026 - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a wide - range volatile pattern. The core drivers were "frequent overseas - driven rallies" and "continuous pressure from domestic supply - demand relaxation", with frequent rhythm switches [3] - The domestic supply - demand structure was loose. The supply of coking coal did not contract unexpectedly, and the demand was weak. The profit of downstream steel mills was under pressure, and the resumption of blast furnace production was slow [6] - The upward drive mainly came from overseas. External factors such as Indonesia's reduction of thermal coal production quotas and international oil price increases triggered several obvious rebound market trends [9] 3.2 Core Focus Points 3.2.1 Coking Coal Production - In 2025, there was a round of strict policy - based production restrictions in domestic coking coal production areas. The policy rhythm was "first control and then supply guarantee", and the annual coal production increased slightly [12] - Coal production is greatly affected by policies. Administrative means such as environmental protection, safety supervision, and over - production verification are important policy tools to regulate coal supply and prices [18] - In the second quarter of 2026, it is less likely to implement administrative control measures. The weekly average production of coking coal is expected to remain at about 10.3 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 2.8% [21] 3.2.2 Coking Coal Import - Since 2023, China has imported more than 100 million tons of coking coal annually, accounting for about 20% of the total supply. Import has become an important external variable for stabilizing domestic supply and demand [20] - In the second quarter of 2026, the import of coking coal will show structural growth. Mongolian coal imports are expected to continue to increase. Australian coal, although with a limited proportion, still has a significant influence as the pricing benchmark for seaborne coal. The import window for US coking coal is expected to remain closed, and the shortfall may be replaced by Canadian coal. Russian coking coal exports to China are expected to increase [36] 3.2.3 Coke Supply - In recent years, the profitability of the coking industry has declined, and the contradiction of over - capacity has intensified. The average coking profit per ton of coking enterprises decreased from about 195.29 yuan in 2021 to 8.11 yuan in 2024, and the capacity utilization rate also declined [37] - The capacity utilization rate of steel - coking integrated coking enterprises is significantly higher than that of independent coking enterprises, and the proportion of steel mill coking capacity is increasing year by year [39] - In the short term, the coking profit has been repaired, and the coke production is expected to increase slightly. In the long term, the coking industry will face double squeeze, and the production may decline from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter [41] 3.2.4 Coke Demand - China's steel exports are a "quantity - for - price" strategy under the background of weak domestic demand, which squeezes the overall profit of the black industry chain. The coking industry is in a difficult situation due to weak terminal demand and over - capacity [43] - In 2026, the profit repair of the coking industry faces dual constraints. The slowdown of steel exports and the weak domestic demand in traditional fields make the terminal demand of coking coal face great pressure [45] 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In the second quarter, domestic coking coal production will remain high, and the import will show structural differentiation. Coke production will increase slightly in the short term and may decline in the long term. The coal - coke market presents a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", and it is difficult to have a trend - rising market [47] - The shock range of the coking coal main contract is (900, 1500), and that of the coke main contract is (1350, 2000) [3][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the iron ore industry is ★★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The global iron ore shipping volume has increased month - on - month and is at a high level in the same period of the past three years. The molten iron output continues to rise, and the supply and demand of the iron ore fundamentals are both increasing. The black industry chain is gradually getting rid of the negative feedback logic. Although the short - term market sentiment declined last week, it is expected that the medium - term iron ore trend will be oscillating and bullish, and the price center may have room to rise [5][32] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 0.06% [4] 3.2 Important Market Information - Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stated on March 26 that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding US President Trump's planned visit to China in mid - May. - Australian ore miner Fenix warned that due to the war in Iran, diesel supply is limited, affecting the Australian mining industry and forcing the company to scale back some business activities. Tropical Cyclone Narrel is raging off the coast of Western Australia, causing fuel supply disruptions. - The Pilbara Port Authority announced that several ports have been closed due to Tropical Cyclone Narrel [14] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of February 2026, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 9,763.79 million tons, a decrease of 2,201.21 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $101.34 per ton, an increase of $0.18 per ton from the previous month. - As of February 2026, Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 5,231.4 million tons, a decrease of 879.8 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipping volume was 2,293.7 million tons, an increase of 404.6 million tons from the first half of the month [18][21] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume are used to measure the demand - side situation, but specific data trends are not elaborated in this part [22][28] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the average daily molten iron output was 2.3109 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 43.29%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 17.00031 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 98.09 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1317 billion tons, a decrease of 7.80 million tons; the number of ships at the port was 111, an increase of 11. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17.66683 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 147.35 million tons [31] 3.6 Market Outlook - The global iron ore shipping volume has increased month - on - month and is at a high level in the same period of the past three years. The molten iron output continues to rise, and the supply and demand of the iron ore fundamentals are both increasing. The black industry chain is gradually getting rid of the negative feedback logic. Although the short - term market sentiment declined last week, it is expected that the medium - term iron ore trend will be oscillating and bullish, and the price center may have room to rise [5][32] 3.7 Operation Strategy - For single - side trading, take a bullish approach on dips in the medium term. - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see attitude. - For options, adopt a wait - and - see attitude [5][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing down; the steel consumption in the automotive industry has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure investment is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The iron ore market is driven by events, with a "near - strong, far - weak" fundamental characteristic. Prices are supported by costs and tight spot supplies but are suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations [26] - The coking coal and coke market fluctuates with energy expectations. The price increase is due to thermal coal expectations rather than its own fundamentals, and it is difficult to continue rising away from fundamentals [44] - The ferroalloy market has strong cost support at the bottom. The production of ferrosilicon is increasing, while silicomanganese maintains low production. The inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [58] - The soda ash market has high daily production and continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space needs inventory accumulation to open [71] - The glass market has a continued cold - repair expectation, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high inventory in the middle reaches and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [96] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Macro Data** - From January to February, the new construction area of real estate was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the decline trend is stabilizing [4] - From January to February, the automobile production was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. In January, the single - month steel consumption was 1.01577 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. In February, the single - month steel consumption was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - In February, the completed infrastructure investment increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption for railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 0% and 31.1% [8] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of rebar contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3173, 3124, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil contracts 01, 05, and 10 were 3311, 3299, and 3310 yuan/ton respectively [11] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also showed certain changes on March 27, 2026 [16] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis** - The iron ore market is event - driven, with a complex mix of long and short factors. The macro internal and external demand momentum is weak, the supply and shipment are marginally recovering, and the rising fuel cost provides support. The resumption of production by steel mills drives the increase in hot metal production, and the structural shortage of port inventory is the core driver. The fundamentals show a "near - strong, far - weak" characteristic [26] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts 01, 05, and 09 were 769.5, 812, and 788 yuan/ton respectively [27][31] - The basis and spot prices of different iron ore varieties also changed [31] - **Fundamental Data** - On March 27, 2026, the daily average hot metal production was 231,090 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.1317 million tons, the apparent demand for five major steel products was 8.88 million tons, etc. [39] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis** - The coking coal and coke market fluctuates with energy expectations. The price increase is due to thermal coal expectations rather than its own fundamentals. Domestic production is increasing, inventory is close to the same - period level, hot metal production and steel mill profits are lower than in previous years, and there is great inventory pressure at the Mongolian coal port. It is difficult for prices to continue rising away from fundamentals [44] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the price differences between different coking coal and coke contracts, as well as the spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions, showed certain changes [45][46][47] Ferroalloy - **Market Analysis** - The ferroalloy market has strong cost support at the bottom. The Australian hurricane has disrupted the shipment of manganese ore. The price - holding by miners and the strengthening of coking coal provide bottom support. The production of ferrosilicon is increasing, while silicomanganese maintains low production. The inventory of silicomanganese is at a historical high, and there is great pressure to reduce inventory [58] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the basis, price differences between contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed certain changes [59][61][63] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - The soda ash market has high daily production and continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, but there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those in the futures - cash market, but the price increase space is limited due to limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open [71] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1229, 1310, and 1360 yuan/ton respectively, and the price differences between contracts also changed [72][75] Glass - **Market Analysis** - The glass market has a continued cold - repair expectation, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high inventory in the middle reaches is a risk concern. The expected return of supply and the high middle - stream inventory limit the price increase, and the demand needs to be verified [96] - **Price Data** - On March 27, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts 05, 09, and 01 were 1041, 1179, and 1273 yuan/ton respectively, and the price differences between contracts and the basis also changed [97]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing; the steel consumption in the automotive manufacturing sector has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure investment is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The iron ore price shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. In the medium to long term, new capacity will make the fundamentals looser, and macro - demand is under pressure both at home and abroad [25] - The short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal has intensified, and the supply - demand contradiction of coke may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [42] - The support for ferroalloys has strengthened, but the demand from steel mills is weak, and the silicon - manganese inventory is at a historical high with great de - stocking pressure [57] - The supply pressure of soda ash persists, and the price trend may be affected by other sectors and macro - factors, with limited upward and downward space [69] - The price of float glass fluctuates due to the combined effects of supply, demand, and cost factors [91] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Macro Data**: In January - February, the new construction area of real estate was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%, and the single - month steel consumption was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The decline trend has begun to stabilize. The automobile production in January - February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The steel consumption in the automotive industry decreased for two consecutive months. The infrastructure investment completion in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year [4][6][8] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts on March 23, 2026, showed certain changes compared with March 20. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also had corresponding changes [10][15] - **Price Ratios**: The 01, 05, and 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were all 4, and the 01, 05, and 10 rebar/coke ratios were all 2 on March 23, 2026 [22] Iron Ore - **Price Situation**: The price shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The cost - end support comes from high - level crude oil and fuel shortage. The global shipping volume has marginally recovered, and the molten iron output has increased with the resumption of production by steel mills. The inventory at ports is being depleted slowly, and the structural shortage of spot goods supports the price. In the medium to long term, new capacity will make the fundamentals looser, and macro - demand is under pressure both at home and abroad [25] - **Price Data**: On March 23, 2026, the 01, 05, and 09 contract closing prices of iron ore were 762.5, 819, and 786.5 respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [26][30] - **Fundamental Data**: On March 20, 2026, the daily average molten iron output was 228,150 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 3.2097 million tons, and other data such as global shipping volume, port inventory, and steel mill inventory also showed certain changes [37] Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is relatively high, and the price decline of Australian coal has narrowed the domestic - foreign price difference, intensifying the short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal. The price increase of coke chemical products has improved profits, and the operating rate is expected to increase. However, the profit pressure of downstream steel products has dragged down the resumption of molten iron production, and the supply - demand contradiction may deteriorate. Overseas energy price increases provide bottom support, but the surplus problem restricts price elasticity [42] - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures price differences and spot prices of coking coal and coke on March 23, 2026, showed certain changes compared with previous days, and the corresponding profit data also changed [43][44][45] Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: The Australian hurricane has disturbed the shipping of manganese ore, and miners' price - holding has pushed up the manganese ore price. The strong coking coal provides cost support, enhancing the downward support for ferroalloys. The output of ferrosilicon has increased, while the output of silicomanganese remains low. The profitability of steel mills is limited, providing weak support for the demand for ferroalloys. The silicomanganese inventory is at a historical high, with great de - stocking pressure, and the manganese ore disturbance amplifies the price fluctuations [57] - **Data**: The daily data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese on March 23, 2026, showed changes in basis, price differences, and spot prices compared with previous days [58][60][61] Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The daily production remains at a high level, the supply pressure persists, the rigid demand is stable but weak, the inventory performance is better than expected, and there is room for replenishment in the middle - stream, but the limited demand elasticity restricts the upward amplitude. The downward space needs to be opened up by inventory accumulation. In the medium to long term, the high - level supply expectation remains unchanged, and the industrial contradiction needs further accumulation. The price trend may be affected by other sectors and macro - factors, and the upward and downward space is difficult to open up for the time being [69] - **Price Data**: On March 23, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash increased compared with March 20, and the price differences and basis also changed [70][71] Float Glass - **Market Situation**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, the daily melting volume has declined, the middle - stream inventory is relatively high, and there is a risk of negative feedback. The supply return expectation and high inventory limit the price increase. The demand needs to be verified. The increase in the price of petroleum coke at the cost end provides support, and the macro - sentiment and fluctuations in related sectors have a driving effect. The price fluctuates under the combined action of supply, demand, and cost [91] - **Price and Sales Data**: On March 23, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass increased compared with March 20, and the price differences, basis, and daily sales data also showed certain changes [92][94]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the steel industry, reflecting a weak balance in the market and cautious procurement from steel mills [11][12]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a stable bottom in fundamentals, with an average profit margin of 42.0% despite a slight decrease in profitability [11][12]. - Iron ore prices are under pressure due to high port inventories and geopolitical factors, leading to a tight spot market [11][14]. - The demand for hot-rolled steel is recovering, but actual end-user follow-up remains insufficient, indicating a weak balance in the market [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview & Index Performance - The steel production remains flat week-on-week, with high iron ore prices driven by sanctions and sufficient steel mill inventories [11]. - The CMRG's sanctions on BHP are identified as a key factor tightening the spot market for iron ore [11]. 2. Sub-industry Fundamentals Steel - Hot-rolled coil prices have shown slight adjustments, with an average price of 3389 RMB/ton, up 6 RMB/ton week-on-week [12]. - Total hot-rolled inventory increased to 4.724 million tons, indicating a slight rise in market pressure [12]. Coal and Coke - The coke market remains stable, with average prices holding steady around 1470 RMB/ton for wet quenching coke [13]. - The average daily coke production from 247 steel mills is 473,100 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 86.46% [13]. Iron Ore - The average daily iron water production from 247 steel mills is 2.2815 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase [14]. - The port inventory of iron ore has decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [14]. 3. Price Data Updates - The report provides detailed price updates for various steel products, including rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel, reflecting current market conditions [40][41][45]. - Iron ore and coke prices are also monitored, showing fluctuations influenced by supply and demand dynamics [41][47]. 4. Supply and Demand Data Updates - The report highlights the supply and demand metrics for steel, iron ore, and coke, indicating a cautious outlook for procurement and inventory management [62][69]. - The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with procurement primarily driven by immediate needs rather than speculative buying [13][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is still at the bottom, but the downward trend is slowing; the steel consumption in the automotive manufacturing sector has declined for two consecutive months; the infrastructure sector is providing support [4][6][8][10] - The short - term increase in iron ore prices due to negotiation events is not sustainable, and the trend of oversupply remains unchanged [27] - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The black - series prices may face downward pressure, and the coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom but are restricted by the oversupply issue [43] - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory pressure limit their upward space [58] - The supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and the demand is currently stable but weak. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space depends on inventory accumulation [69] - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its price increase, while the demand needs to be verified [96] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Macro Data - The new construction area of real estate from January to February was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The single - month steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the downward trend is stabilizing [4] - The automobile production from January to February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The single - month steel consumption in January was 1.01577 million tons (automobile industry association's data), a month - on - month decrease of 11.67% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%; in February, it was 881,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.6% [6] - The infrastructure investment completion amount in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year. The steel consumption of railways and airports was 271,600 tons and 29,970 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 0% and 31.1% [8] Price Data - On March 20, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3183, 3123, and 3151 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3312, 3297, and 3303 yuan/ton respectively [10] - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and their basis data are provided, showing slight daily and weekly changes [14] - The roll - rebar spread and the spot spread between roll and rebar in different regions are presented, with some changes compared to the previous day [19] - The ratios of rebar to iron ore and rebar to coke for different contracts remained unchanged on March 20, 2026, compared to the previous day [23] Iron Ore Market Analysis - The current iron ore price has strengthened in the short term due to negotiation events, but the BHP's shipping gap to China may be strategic and not sustainable. The shipping volume has decreased due to weather, and the freight increase is limited. The iron ore supply and demand situation shows that the iron - water production will increase with复产, but the terminal demand is weak and the inventory is high, and the profit may be under pressure again after复产. The ports are accumulating inventory seasonally, but there is a prominent structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources. The valuation is at a high level, and the near - month contracts are in a positive - spread pattern. Overall, the event - driven price increase is not long - lasting, and the oversupply trend remains [27] Price and Fundamental Data - The closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 759, 815.5, and 781 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [28][30][31] - The basis data of different contracts and the prices of different iron ore varieties in Rizhao are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [30][31] - The fundamental data such as daily average iron - water production, 45 - port desilting volume, five - major steel apparent demand, global shipping volume, Australia - Brazil shipping volume, 45 - port arrival volume, 45 - port inventory, and 247 - steel mill inventory are presented, with corresponding week - on - week and month - on - month changes [39] Coal - Coke Market Analysis - From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The uncertainty in the Middle - East shipping route may suppress China's short - term steel exports. In the context of weakening steel export demand, the overall black - series prices may face significant downward pressure. The coal - coke prices have some support at the bottom due to the increase in overseas energy prices, but the oversupply issue will restrict their price elasticity, so one should not be overly optimistic [43] Price Data - The coal - coke futures price differences between different contracts, the coking profit on the disk, and the ratios of main contracts are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [44] - The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke in different regions, as well as the import and export profits and price ratios, are presented, with corresponding daily and weekly changes [45][47] Ferroalloys Market Analysis - In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates limit their upward space [58] Price Data - The basis, price differences between different contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions are provided, showing daily and weekly changes [59][61] - The prices of raw materials such as semi - coke, steam coal, and manganese ore, as well as the warehouse receipt data of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, are presented, with corresponding changes [61] Soda Ash Market Analysis - The daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The rigid demand is currently stable but weak, and there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the disk price rises, there is some replenishment space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but the price increase space is limited due to the limited demand elasticity. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for the further accumulation of industrial contradictions. In addition to the fundamentals, other sectors or macro factors may also have an impact [69] Price Data - The closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1202, 1274, and 1322 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data are also provided [73] - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and the price differences between them are presented, with no significant daily changes [73] Glass Market Analysis - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. However, the high intermediate inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be significant, and the downstream may not be able to absorb the supply. There are continuous news about ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines waiting to be ignited in Shahe. The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit the price increase of glass, and the demand needs to be verified. The cost of petroleum coke has increased. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors may also have an impact [96] Price and Sales Data - The closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts on March 20, 2026, were 1054, 1181, and 1247 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding daily changes and percentage changes. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data in different regions are also provided [97] - The daily sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions are presented for several days [99]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is still at the bottom, but the decline trend is slowing; the steel consumption of the automotive industry has declined for two consecutive months; infrastructure is providing support [10] - The current iron ore price has strengthened in the short - term due to negotiation events, but the supply - demand pattern of oversupply remains unchanged [27] - In the context of weakening steel export demand, the overall price of the black series may face significant downward pressure. The coking coal and coke prices have some support at the bottom but are restricted by the over - supply problem [43] - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high plate inventory pressure limit their upward space [56] - The supply pressure of soda ash is continuous, and the price space is limited. The industry contradiction needs further accumulation [69] - The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit its price increase, while the demand remains to be verified [93] Summary by Category Steel - **Macro Data**: The new construction area of real estate from January to February was 5.084 million square meters, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The steel consumption from January to February was 330,460 tons, at the lowest level in the same period over the years, but the decline trend has begun to stabilize. The automobile production from January to February was 4.024 million vehicles, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The steel consumption in January and February showed a month - on - month decline. The infrastructure investment completion in February increased by 9.76% year - on - year [4][6][8] - **Price Data**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts on March 18, 2026, and their price differences with the previous day are provided. The spot prices and basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions are also given [10][14] Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price has strengthened in the short - term due to negotiation events, but the BHP's shipping gap to China may be strategic and less sustainable. The shipping volume has declined due to weather, and the freight increase is limited. The iron water production will increase with the resumption of production, but the terminal is weak and the inventory is high. The port inventory has increased seasonally, and there is a structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources [27] - **Price Data**: The closing prices, basis, and spot prices of iron ore contracts on March 18, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week are provided [28][30] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average iron water production, port dredging volume, five - major steel apparent demand, global shipping volume, Australia - Brazil shipping volume, port arrival volume, port inventory, and steel mill inventory data from different time points are provided [39] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: From March to April, it is the verification period of terminal demand. The Middle - East shipping route has uncertainties, which may suppress China's short - term steel exports. The overall price of the black series may face downward pressure. Coking coal and coke are affected by overseas energy price increases, with some support at the bottom, but the over - supply problem restricts their price elasticity [43] - **Price Data**: The price differences between different contracts of coking coal and coke, the coking profit, and the ratios of main contracts on March 18, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week are provided. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and their import and export profits are also given [44][45] Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: In the short - term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high plate inventory pressure limit their upward space [56] - **Price Data**: The basis, price differences between different contracts, and spot prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese on March 18, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week are provided [57][61] Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The daily production of soda ash has reached a high of nearly 120,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. The rigid demand is currently stable and weak, and there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. The inventory performance is better than expected. The price upward space is limited, and the downward space needs inventory accumulation to open. The long - term high - supply expectation remains unchanged [69] - **Price Data**: The closing prices, price differences between different contracts, basis, and spot prices of soda ash on March 18, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [72] Glass - **Market Situation**: The cold - repair expectation of float glass continues, and the daily melting volume is in a downward stage. The high intermediate inventory is a risk point. The supply return expectation and high intermediate inventory limit the price increase of glass, and the demand remains to be verified. The cost of petroleum coke has increased [93] - **Price Data**: The closing prices, price differences between different contracts, basis, and daily sales - to - production ratios of glass on March 18, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [94][96]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The Iran geopolitical conflict has driven up the prices of crude oil and energy - chemical sectors, with the sentiment spilling over to coal and iron ore, leading to an increase in coking coal prices and iron ore shipping costs. Market rumors of China restricting BHP's iron ore procurement and post - holiday restocking demand from downstream have tightened the tradable inventory at ports, providing cost support. However, high inventory and high warehouse receipts of hot - rolled coils pose pressure, and steel exports face resistance due to rising oil prices and RMB appreciation, limiting the short - term rebound height [3]. - Iron Ore: Spot liquidity has tightened, with BHP Newman powder added to the spot restriction list, prompting urgent transfers by steel mills and driving up prices. The steel fundamentals are weak, squeezing blast furnace profits. There are doubts about the sustainability of BHP's shipping gap to China, increasing the probability of a short - term reversal [19]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Domestic coal mines are in the resumption phase, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has recovered rapidly, resulting in high supply pressure and intensifying the short - term oversupply of coking coal. The cost of coal for coke furnaces has loosened, slightly expanding coking profits, and rising chemical product prices have improved comprehensive profits, which may increase coke enterprise开工. From March to April is the verification period for terminal demand. The late Spring Festival has slowed down the resumption rhythm, and uncertainties in the Middle East route have suppressed steel exports. The black series as a whole faces significant downward pressure, and while there is support at the bottom for coking coal and coke, their upward elasticity is limited [30]. - Ferroalloys: In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but weak downstream steel terminal demand and high inventory pressure of plates may limit the upward space for ferroalloys [48]. - Soda Ash: The daily output of soda ash has returned to a high of 117,000 tons, with continuous supply pressure. Current rigid demand is generally stable and weak, but there may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side. Inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for middle - stream players such as those in the spot - futures market, but due to limited demand elasticity, the price increase space is expected to be limited. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation. In the medium - to - long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, waiting for further accumulation of industrial contradictions. Apart from the fundamentals, the overall valuation of soda ash and glass is not high, and they may be driven by other sectors [62]. - Glass: The cold - repair expectation for float glass continues, and daily melting is declining. However, high middle - stream inventory has always been a risk concern in the market, as once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be huge and the downstream may not be able to absorb it. There is also continuous news of ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines in Shahe waiting to be ignited. The expectation of supply recovery and high middle - stream inventory limit the upward space for glass, and demand needs to be verified. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors should also be considered, as it may be affected and driven [85]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,193 yuan/ton, up from 3,174 yuan/ton on March 12 [4]. - The month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts also changed slightly. For instance, the rebar 01 - 05 month - to - month spread decreased from 54 to 51 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the summary prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous day. For example, the summary price of rebar in China was 3,339 yuan/ton, up from 3,325 yuan/ton on March 12 [8]. - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts also changed. For example, the 01 rebar basis (Shanghai) increased from 46 to 57 [8]. - **Other Ratios**: - The 01 volume - rebar ratio was 125 on both March 13 and March 12 [13]. - The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on both March 13 and March 12 [16]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 01 contract was 758.5 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from March 12 [20]. - The basis of iron ore contracts also changed. For example, the 01 basis was 38.5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan from March 12 [20]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the prices of various iron ore varieties in Rizhao increased compared to the previous day. For example, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 797 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from March 12 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: - The daily average pig iron output on March 13, 2026, was 221.2 tons, down 6.39 tons compared to March 6 [24]. - The 45 - port desilting volume was 317.9 tons, up 6.82 tons compared to March 6 [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: - The month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke contracts remained stable or changed slightly. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 month - to - month spread was - 211.5 on March 13, the same as the previous day [34]. - The main coking profit on the futures market was - 31 yuan/ton on March 13, the same as the previous day [34]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the prices of various coking coal and coke varieties remained stable or changed slightly. For example, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1,450 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [37]. - The import profits of different coking coal sources also changed. For example, the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term contract) was 303 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day [37]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: - On March 12, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 72 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan from the previous day [49]. - The silicon iron spot prices in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous week. For example, the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from March 5 [49]. - **Silicon Manganese**: - On March 13, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 74 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day [50]. - The silicon manganese spot prices in various regions increased or remained stable compared to the previous week. For example, the silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from March 6 [50]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 05 contract was 1,277 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan from March 12, with a daily increase rate of 1.67% [63]. - The month - to - month spreads of soda ash contracts also changed. For example, the month - to - month spread (5 - 9) increased from - 66 to - 58 [63]. - **Spot Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the spot prices of heavy - soda ash and light - soda ash in various regions remained stable. For example, the heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1,280 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [63]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: - On March 13, 2026, the closing prices of glass contracts increased compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the 05 contract was 1,112 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan from March 12, with a daily increase rate of 3.35% [86]. - The month - to - month spreads of glass contracts also changed. For example, the month - to - month spread (5 - 9) increased from - 117 to - 113 [86]. - **Sales**: - On March 12, 2026, the sales - to - production ratios of glass in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 145, 120, 116, and 119 respectively [87].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel**: After the Two Sessions, real - estate policies are mainly stable with limited stimulus. Market expectations have returned to fundamentals. Steel exports face pressure, hot - rolled coil inventory is high, and the pressure from warehouse receipts is large. Insufficient inventory reduction may lead to price declines, and the rebound height is limited [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Against the backdrop of war concerns and domestic policy support, tightened spot liquidity has pushed prices higher, but the fundamentals show a seasonal weakening in both supply and demand. Supply pressure persists, and the expectation of steel mill production cuts is rising under stagflation risks, leading to inventory accumulation. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the contraction in iron ore demand from Gulf countries may far exceed the reduction in Iranian supply. Coupled with only a seasonal rebound in shipping costs, the upside space is limited [21]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Domestic coal mines are in the resumption stage, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has recovered rapidly, resulting in large supply pressure. The short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal has intensified. The cost of coking coal for coke has loosened, and coking profits have expanded slightly. The rise in chemical product prices has improved comprehensive profits, and coke enterprise operations are expected to increase. From March to April, it is the verification period for terminal demand. The late Spring Festival has led to a slow resumption of work, and the uncertainty of the Middle East route has suppressed steel exports. The overall downward pressure on the black series is large, and the bottom of coking coal and coke has support but limited elasticity [31]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the short term, the cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel terminal demand and high plate inventory pressure may limit the upward space for ferroalloys [50]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - side maintenance may gradually increase, which will affect production in stages. In terms of supply and demand, the rigid demand is currently stable but weak. There may be unexpected disturbances on the supply side, which may affect soda ash production in stages. The inventory performance is better than expected. If the futures price rises, there is some restocking space for middle - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash arbitrage, but due to limited demand elasticity, the price increase space is expected to be limited. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In the long - term, the high - supply expectation remains unchanged, and we need to wait for further accumulation of industrial contradictions. In addition to the fundamentals, the overall valuation of soda ash and glass is not high, and there may be an impact from other sectors [64]. - **Glass**: Currently, the glass production and sales are temporarily weak, and the market is still in the recovery stage. The daily melting volume of float glass has dropped to around 148,000 tons, but the high inventory in the middle - stream has always been a risk concern in the market. Once a negative feedback occurs, the spot pressure will be very large, and the downstream may not be able to bear it. Secondly, there are continuous news about ignition and cold - repair, and there are many new lines in Shahe waiting to be ignited. The expectation of supply recovery and high middle - stream inventory limit the upside of glass, and the demand needs to be verified. In addition to the fundamentals, macro and sentiment factors also need to be considered, and there may be an impact [87]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Futures Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3170, 3115, and 3144 yuan/ton respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3292, 3269, and 3278 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the rebar summary price in China was 3317 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton [9][11]. - **Price Spreads**: The 01 - 05 month spread of rebar was 55 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil was 23 yuan/ton on March 11, 2026 [4]. Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 740.5, 787.5, and 758.5 yuan/ton respectively [22]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the price of Rizhao PB powder was 772 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: As of March 6, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 227.59 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 311.08 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 17117.86 tons [26]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the 09 - 01 month spread of coking coal was - 214 yuan/ton, and that of coke was - 94 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1450 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1280 yuan/ton [38]. - **Profits**: The on - site coking profit was - 28 yuan/ton on March 11, 2026 [35]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On March 10, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 4 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 01 - 05 month spread was 58 yuan/ton [51]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On March 11, 2026, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 84 yuan/ton, and the silicon manganese 01 - 05 month spread was 106 yuan/ton [52]. Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1255, 1322, and 1357 yuan/ton respectively [65]. - **Spot Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1280 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Futures Prices**: On March 11, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1112, 1225, and 1283 yuan/ton respectively [88]. - **Production and Sales**: On March 6, 2026, the production - sales ratio in Shahe was 131, in Hubei was 100, in East China was 92, and in South China was 100 [89].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by the Iran geopolitical conflict, which drives up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, real - estate policies are mainly stable with limited stimulus, and the market expectation returns to the fundamentals. The supply of hot - rolled coils is under pressure due to factors such as production restrictions and inventory, and the short - term rebound is limited [3]. - The price of iron ore near - month contracts is supported by the tight supply of tradable resources, but the upside is restricted by high supply pressure, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [22]. - The coking coal market faces supply pressure due to the resumption of domestic coal mines and the rapid recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The coking profit of coke has improved, but the weak terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [35]. - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory of steel plates limit the upside space [51]. - For soda ash, supply maintenance may increase, affecting production. The demand is currently stable but weak, and the inventory is better than expected. The price upside is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside needs inventory accumulation [66]. - The glass market is in the recovery period with weak production and sales. The high inventory in the middle - stream and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs verification [89]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3174 yuan/ton, 3119 yuan/ton, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3291 yuan/ton, 3270 yuan/ton, and 3282 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed. For example, the rebar summary price in China on March 9, 2026, was 3323 yuan/ton [9]. Market Analysis - The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, real - estate policies are stable, and the market returns to fundamentals. The supply of hot - rolled coils is affected by production restrictions and inventory, and the short - term rebound is limited [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 741 yuan/ton, 784.5 yuan/ton, and 758 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao also increased [23]. Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output on March 6, 2026, was 227.59 tons, a decrease of 5.69 tons compared with the previous week. The 45 - port inventory was 17117.86 tons, an increase of 25.9 tons compared with the previous week [29]. Market Analysis - The price of iron ore near - month contracts is supported by the tight supply of tradable resources, but the upside is restricted by high supply pressure, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [22]. Coking Coal and Coke Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the price difference between coking coal 09 - 01 was - 209.5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal and coke in different contracts and the corresponding price differences and profit data are also provided [36][39]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and the import and export profit data are also detailed [40]. Market Analysis - The coking coal market faces supply pressure due to the resumption of domestic coal mines and the rapid recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The coking profit of coke has improved, but the weak terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [35]. Ferroalloys Price Data - For ferrosilicon, on March 9, 2026, the spot prices in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc., increased. The price differences between different contracts are also provided [52]. - For ferromanganese, the spot prices in different regions also increased, and the price differences between different contracts are given [53][55]. Market Analysis - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory of steel plates limit the upside space [51]. Soda Ash Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1276 yuan/ton, 1330 yuan/ton, and 1358 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions are also provided [67]. Market Analysis - Supply maintenance may increase, affecting production. The demand is currently stable but weak, and the inventory is better than expected. The price upside is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside needs inventory accumulation [66]. Glass Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1104 yuan/ton, 1211 yuan/ton, and 1280 yuan/ton respectively. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data are also provided [90]. - The daily production and sales data of glass in different regions are given [91]. Market Analysis - The glass market is in the recovery period with weak production and sales. The high inventory in the middle - stream and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs verification [89].