1. 宏观量化配置框架回顾 在数说资产配置和因子新视野系列报告中，我们构建了结合经济、流动性、信用和通胀的自上而下的宏观量化框架，并依次在大类资产配置、权益资产的行业和风格配置上有 所应用。在过去的跟踪中，我们发现我国宏观变量向资产的映射规律仍在不断变化，因此模型也需要持续修正。下面我们首先对框架进行回顾，并结合近两年观察到的现象提 出修正方案。 在大类资产配置模型中，我们从美林时钟改进的视角出发，通过主成分分析发现影响股票、债券、商品等多个大类资产共同波动的前两大因素为经济和流动性，因此首先构建 了经济+流动性时钟，每月依据PMI、汽车生产销售等数据构成的经济前瞻指标和利率、货币投放、超储率构成的综合流动性指标来判断经济、流动性方向，然后通过调整大类 资产预期收益的方式和BL模型结合，得到不同风险偏好下的资产配置权重： 在具体计算中，我们分别计算经济观点和流动性观点调整后的组合权重，并将两者等权合成，使用的资产包括沪深300、中证500、中证国债、中证信用债、黄金、南华商品和 标普500指数。激进型组合2013年以来的表现如下，加入观点的组合年化收益约8.5%，相较于基准组合有约0.6%的超额收益，而202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon continues to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and regulatory support in the photovoltaic industry [2] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 45,000 to 52,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 47,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 45,000 to 47,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 46,000 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.37% [1] - The number of companies signing contracts for polysilicon this week is six, indicating a stable yet rising market price [1] Market Dynamics - The price increase is supported by a joint meeting of six ministries aimed at regulating competition in the photovoltaic industry, signaling a commitment to avoid excessive competition [2] - Polysilicon companies are implementing production and sales restrictions, alleviating market pressure on supply and demand [2] - Major polysilicon producers are reducing production, which is expected to increase overall costs and lead to higher market prices due to regulatory constraints [2] Production and Inventory - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, with an expected production of approximately 125,000 tons in August [2] - If production and sales restrictions are effectively implemented in September, monthly output is expected to remain stable, but the current oversupply situation has not improved significantly [2] - Industry inventory is projected to continue accumulating, with an estimated increase of about 20,000 tons from August to September [2] Price Statistics - The highest and lowest transaction prices for n-type polysilicon are 52,000 CNY/ton and 45,000 CNY/ton, respectively, with an average price of 47,900 CNY/ton [3] - The price fluctuations for n-type granular silicon show a highest price of 47,000 CNY/ton and a lowest price of 45,000 CNY/ton, with an average price increase of 3.37% [3] Participating Companies - The companies involved in the price statistics include Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, and Xinjiang Goin Technology Co., Ltd., among others [4]

各位老友，我是帮主郑重。二十年盯盘练就的火眼金睛，今天可算瞧见新鲜戏码——美联储内部为降息幅度吵翻了天！一边是财长贝森特高喊"9月必须 降50基点"，另一边旧金山联储主席戴利直接泼冷水："没必要！这又不是紧急状态！" 这场面，活像菜市场里讨价还价的大爷大妈。 全球连锁反应：美元指数已跌破50日均线，若美联储降息扭捏，欧元、英镑、商品货币可能继续反扑，热钱更要涌向新兴市场。 给咱投资者的启示： 1. 别赌"降息大礼包"：戴利+古尔斯比等官员握有投票权，50基点概率极低，小心预期落空后美股震荡。 2. 盯紧"政策分歧股"：若降息温和，受益中性利率的银行股（如摩根大通）、估值合理的消费龙头（如宝洁）更扛摔；若经济意外走弱，黄金、公用事业 等防御板块会抬头。 3. 中长线布局看透本质：戴利反复强调"数据导向"，咱也得学——8月非农（9月5日）、CPI（9月10日）才是降息前最终裁判。 第二，劳动力市场是她的心头病。戴利嘴上说"就业不算太差"，可7月非农数据塌方（新增仅7.3万，前两月还下修25.8万）让她不得不改口：就业市场已 从"稳健"变成"正在走弱"。但病根还没到"急救"程度，所以猛药降息50基点？没必要！ 第三 ...

再看看咱们湖南的几个城市。7月长沙新房价格环比下跌0.4%，这一下跌可结束了之前的"四连涨"态 势。还记得今年6月，长沙和上海的新房价格环比涨幅都是0.4%，在70城新房价格涨幅榜里排第一位， 而且当时长沙已经连续4个月上涨，涨幅分别是0.3%、0.2%、0.3%、0.4%。二手房方面，岳阳下降 0.4%，长沙和常德都下降 0.7%。 三湘都市报全媒体记者 卜岚 视频 袁红霞 熊韵婧 今天国家统计局发布了7月70城房价数据，咱们一起来聊聊变化。 70个大中城市里，各线城市的商品住宅销售价格环比都下降了，但同比降幅整体有所收窄。新房价格环 比涨幅靠前的城市里，上海、乌鲁木齐以 0.3% 居首，三亚、宜昌涨 0.2%，长春、常德涨 0.1%。二手 房价格就更有意思了，全国就太原一个城市环比上涨，涨幅 0.2%，其他城市都下跌了。 那长沙新房价格为啥会跌呢？整体来看，一方面，7月是楼市传统淡季，大家买房的需求本来就有所减 弱。供应方面虽然整体减少了，但部分区域前期库存积压，市场供大于求，这在一定程度上拉低了房 价。另一方面，政策上长沙之前出台了一系列房地产相关政策，但政策从出台到落地见效需要时间。还 有就是市场预期 ...

Group 1 - Economic data plays a crucial role in foreign exchange rate fluctuations, with macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, inflation rate, and unemployment rate directly reflecting the health and development trends of an economy [1] - Strong GDP growth indicates economic prosperity, attracting foreign investors and increasing demand for the currency, thus pushing the exchange rate up; conversely, weak economic growth may lead to decreased currency demand and downward pressure on the exchange rate [1] - Inflation rates significantly impact exchange rates, with high inflation eroding purchasing power and causing currency depreciation, while stable low inflation helps maintain currency value [1] Group 2 - Interest rates are a key factor influencing foreign exchange rates, as differences in interest rates between countries can lead to international capital flows [1] - Higher interest rates attract foreign investors seeking better returns, increasing demand for the currency and pushing the exchange rate up; lower interest rates may result in capital outflows, increasing currency supply and decreasing demand, leading to a drop in the exchange rate [1] - Central banks adjust interest rates to achieve monetary policy goals, directly affecting supply and demand in the foreign exchange market and thus impacting exchange rate trends [1] Group 3 - Political stability, policy consistency, and diplomatic relations significantly affect foreign exchange rates, with political turmoil or sudden policy changes creating uncertainty that may lead investors to reduce holdings in that currency, causing depreciation [2] - A stable political environment and transparent policies enhance investor confidence, providing support for the exchange rate [2] - Geopolitical conflicts, such as wars and trade disputes, disrupt economic order and affect investor sentiment and market expectations, leading to significant impacts on foreign exchange rates [2] Group 4 - Market expectations and speculative behavior also have a notable influence on foreign exchange rates, as investors' anticipations regarding future economic data, policy directions, and international events are often reflected in the market [2] - Positive expectations about economic improvement or central bank rate hikes may lead investors to buy the currency in advance, pushing the exchange rate up; negative expectations can result in currency sell-offs and declines in exchange rates [2] - Speculative trading in the foreign exchange market can significantly increase exchange rate volatility in the short term due to large-scale trading based on predicted trends [2]

人民财讯8月12日电，8月12日，市场监管总局公布数据，上半年，新设民营企业434.6万户，同比增长 4.6%；新设外资企业3.3万户，同比增长4.1%。多种所有制企业发展态势良好，显示市场预期持续改 善，企业投资信心有效提升，中国始终是全球投资的热土。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Neutral [2] - Soda Ash: Slightly Bearish [2] - Silicomanganese: Bearish [4] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish [4] Core Views - Market expectations have boosted steel prices, leading to a slight rebound, while glass and soda ash are oscillating, and ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloy prices are rising [1][3] - Glass supply lacks policy - driven contraction, and real - estate drags down demand. Although speculative demand has increased and inventories are decreasing, they remain at a high level. In the long run, supply - demand remains loose [1] - Soda ash production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, but may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase [1] - Silicomanganese production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased [3] - Ferrosilicon production is gradually recovering, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations [3] Summary by Category Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 0.93%. Downstream procurement is cautious [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Supply shows no policy - driven contraction, real - estate drags down demand. Speculative demand has increased, and factory inventories are decreasing but remain high. Market trading sentiment has cooled after important meetings. In the long run, supply - demand is loose. Attention should be paid to the delivery of the 09 contract and industry capacity reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures market oscillated upward, with the main 2509 contract rising 1.78%. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash has slightly increased, and downstream buyers purchase based on low - price demand [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has decreased month - on - month but is still high. During the summer maintenance period, capacity release is restricted, and may increase later. With potential production cuts in the photovoltaic industry, consumption may weaken and inventory pressure will increase. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the supply side [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillate weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the silicomanganese futures market was strong, with the main contract rising 4.27%. Factory开工 enthusiasm is high, and prices have been slightly adjusted. The price in the northern market is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is about 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production has recovered, iron - water production has decreased, and inventories have dropped significantly to a medium level in recent years. Australian manganese ore shipments have basically recovered. After the price increase due to macro - sentiment, enterprises' hedging willingness has increased. Attention should be paid to inventory and ore shipments [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures market was boosted by the black - metal sector and oscillated upward. Market sentiment has improved, and prices are stable. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area is 5350 - 5500 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Production is gradually recovering, apparent demand has decreased, enterprises have profits, demand is resilient, and inventories are at a medium - high level. As the macro - policy enters a vacuum period, market sentiment may cool down, and prices will follow the sector's fluctuations. In the long run, capacity is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to electricity price changes and industrial policies [3] - **Strategy**: Bearish [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which has led to mixed reactions in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The bond futures market showed strong performance, reflecting intense speculation among investors regarding the announcement [1]. - Analysts noted that the demand for existing bonds increased post-announcement, but expectations for a significant decline in interest rates in the short term should be tempered [1]. - The potential widening of the yield spread between new and old bonds could be around 10 basis points due to the VAT implications, although uncertainties remain [1]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The resumption of VAT is expected to narrow the yield spread between credit bonds and interest rate bonds by 30 to 50 basis points, as the tax-exempt advantage of interest rate bonds diminishes [1]. - New government bonds may see an increase in issuance rates by 5 to 10 basis points to compensate for the tax burden, while the attractiveness of existing bonds may rise [1]. - Different tax rates applicable to various financial institutions could lead to differentiated investment behaviors, potentially attracting bank funds into interest rate bonds through broader fund products [1]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Post-August 8, attention will be on the auction results of newly issued government bonds and other influencing factors such as real estate policy adjustments and inflation stabilization [2]. - The macroeconomic environment and market sentiment are expected to stabilize following recent negotiations and meetings, with a focus on domestic fundamentals and liquidity changes [2]. - The weak performance of government bond futures in July was attributed to significant sell-offs triggered by rising stock and commodity markets rather than fundamental changes [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market trend is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs for the year, driven by liquidity and market expectations [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The financing balance has been steadily increasing since the end of June, surpassing 1.9 trillion yuan [1] - The rising stock market has led to an expansion of the market's profit-making effect, creating a positive feedback loop [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Attention is required on the market's support strength near key levels, with an expectation for the market to maintain a high-level oscillation in August [1] - Structural allocation opportunities should be monitored [1]

Policy Focus - The government will strengthen economic monitoring, forecasting, and early warning systems [1] - The government will normalize policy research and reserve measures [1] - The government aims to improve the policy toolbox for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand [1] - Policies will be adjusted based on actual needs, coordinating efforts between the current and next year [1] Economic Goals - The government prioritizes stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [1] - The government seeks to achieve a reasonable recovery in price levels [1] - The government aims for overall stability in social employment and optimized economic growth [1]