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美股异动|雷神技术股价连日下挫投资者谨慎观望全球挑战
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 22:49
10月9日,雷神技术(RTX)连续第二天表现疲软,股价下跌了3.79%,近两日累计跌幅达4.19%。这一 走势引人关注,投资者不禁要问:是什么导致了雷神技术近期的股价波动? 首先,雷神技术的中期财报表现强劲,2025年上半年收入达到418.87亿美元,同比增长7.33%,净利润 更是猛增至33.50亿美元,同比增长74.66%。这些数据表明公司在航空航天和国防领域依然保持稳健增 长,这无疑是股价的重要支撑因素。然而,尽管财报亮眼,股价却未能持续走高,这或许与市场对未来 增长的谨慎态度有关。 (来源:美股情报站) 其次,分析师的评级和目标价也影响着投资者的预期。10月6日,有分析师维持雷神技术"市场持平"的 评级,目标价设定为181美元。这一评价显示出市场对其股价的相对保守预期,或许反映出投资者对短 期内突破挑战的担忧。这种预期可能导致部分投资者采取观望态度,从而对股价造成压力。 来源:市场资讯 对于投资者而言,鉴于雷神技术在行业中的领导地位及其稳健的财务表现,长线投资依然具有吸引力。 然而,考虑到近期股价波动和市场预期的谨慎,短期投资者可能需要密切关注市场动向和经济数据,以 便及时调整投资策略。 综上所述,雷 ...
美国2年、日本20年,一线城市的房价何时止跌,情况何时稳定?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 05:58
最近刷到不少人焦虑提问: "北京朝阳区的二手房挂了3个月没卖掉,还得再降多少才有人买?""上海浦东的房子比2021年跌了100 万,现在抄底会不会套牢?" 打开官方数据更揪心:2025年上半年,北上广深二手房价格环比、同比全是负增长,有的区单月跌幅甚 至超过2%。 虽然各地救市政策一轮接一轮——降首付、松限购、给补贴,但市场就像"温吞水",没见明显回暖。 大家最关心的问题其实就一个:一线城市的房价还会跌多久? 01. 美国上世纪末到2000年初,也经历过一轮疯狂的房地产热:银行随便放贷,普通人零首付就能买房,房 价像坐火箭一样涨。 但泡沫终究会破,2006年开始,美国房价掉头向下,2007年4月正式进入"下跌通道",这一跌就跌了2 年。 直到2009年5月,以美国前十大城市标准普尔/CS房价指数为参考,房价才跌到谷底。 但触底不代表马上涨,之后又在低点徘徊了2年多,直到2012年1月才开始慢慢回升。 等到2018年,房价才重新回到2006年的高点。 后来疫情期间,美国搞量化宽松(简单说就是印钱),加上财政补贴,一线城市房价又涨了一波,甚至 超过了2018年的高点。 美国为什么能这么快恢复?核心原因有两个: 1 ...
帮主郑重:美股创了新高,美国政府停摆了?这事没你想的那么慌
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-02 00:58
凌晨刷到美股数据的时候,我琢磨着得跟大伙唠唠——道指、标普齐刷刷踩上了历史新高,标普更是头一回稳稳站在6700点以上,可转头一看,美国政 府时隔五年,又停摆了。这一热一冷的反差,是不是跟你睡前想的"利空就该跌"完全不一样? 做了20年财经记者,见多了市场跟政策的"拧巴时刻",但这次还真有点意思。按说政府停摆不是小动静:国会预算办公室算了,大概75万联邦雇员要无薪 休假,连美联储接下来做决策的"指路牌"——9月非农就业报告,都得往后拖,毕竟劳工统计局一停摆,啥数据都发不出来。可美股偏偏不慌,纳维利尔 那哥们说得实在,"那些等着跌下来抄底的,可能还得再等等",市场这股子冲劲,倒是比预期里稳得多。 其实核心就俩字:预期。交易员们心里跟明镜似的,这次停摆大概率长不了——两党闹归闹,一个要补医疗税收抵免,一个不松口,可真拖久了,影响 经济不说,连穆迪这种评级机构都可能再盯着美国信用"挑刺",五年前那波停摆的教训,谁也没忘。但也别光看表面热闹,藏在新高背后的"小疙瘩"也得 拎出来:你看ADP数据,9月私营就业不光没涨,还少了3.2万,劳动力市场有点软;通胀没完全歇菜,股票估值又在高位,现在美联储没了关键数据指 引,跟"盲 ...
人民币汇率小幅波动背后:美联储政策与市场预期的角力
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-28 18:28
对比历史,2023年的教训尤为深刻。那一年,人民币汇率在内外多重压力下大幅走弱,有效汇率指数也 呈现震荡下行态势。痛定思痛,决策层加强了预期引导和跨境资本流动管理。进入2025年,随着国内经 济复苏态势的巩固和美联储政策转向的临近,人民币汇率一度展现出企稳回升的迹象。然而,9月26日 的这次下调,再次提醒我们,外部环境的复杂性和不确定性依然是悬在人民币汇率头顶的"达摩克利斯 之剑" 。美联储的每一次议息会议、每一份经济数据报告,都可能成为扰动市场的导火索。 更值得反思的是,我们是否过度聚焦于人民币对美元这一单一汇率?在全球贸易格局深刻调整的今天, 衡量一国货币价值更应关注其对一篮子货币的有效汇率。过度关注美元兑人民币的点位,不仅容易被市 场情绪裹挟,也可能忽视了人民币在更广泛国际经贸活动中的真实表现。专家建议,应引导市场更多关 注有效汇率指数,以更全面、客观的视角看待人民币的价值。 展望未来,人民币汇率的走势将是一场内外力量的持续角力。一方面,美联储降息预期若能兑现,将为 人民币提供有力支撑;另一方面,国内经济的复苏成色、结构性改革的推进速度,以及金融市场的深度 与广度,将从根本上决定人民币的内在价值与韧性。 ...
风险月报 | 权益风险评分超过去年高点,情绪与预期出现分歧
中泰证券资管· 2025-09-25 11:30
Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment has significantly improved, with the market moving from a "neutral to slightly positive" state to a "significantly positive" range, indicating increased trading activity and investor confidence [4] Market Risk Assessment - The Zhongtai Asset Management risk system score for the stock market is 62.77, an increase from 59.65 last month, surpassing last year's highest score of 61.33 [2] - The valuation of the CSI 300 index has slightly risen to 61.90 from 59.68 last month, marking five consecutive months of upward movement in overall market valuation [2] - The market expectation score has dropped significantly to 50.00 from 60.00 last month, reflecting concerns over macroeconomic data and policy implementation [2] Sector Performance - Among the 28 Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as steel, electronics, real estate, and defense have valuations above the historical 60th percentile, with real estate driven by fluctuating policy expectations [2] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector remains below the historical 10th percentile in valuation [2] Economic Indicators - August economic data shows a continued weak trend, with industrial output growth at 5.2% (down from 5.7%), retail sales growth at 3.4% (down from 3.7%), and fixed asset investment growth at 0.5% (down from 1.6%) [8] - The "anti-involution" policy is impacting production and investment, suggesting a potential overhang effect on data [8] Liquidity and Financing - In August, the social financing scale increased by 25,693 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,630 billion yuan year-on-year, while new RMB loans amounted to 5,900 billion yuan, down by 3,100 billion yuan year-on-year [9] - The M1 and M2 money supply growth rates were 6% and 8.8%, respectively, both exceeding market expectations [9] - The bond market remains stable under a loose liquidity environment, with the ten-year government bond yield around 1.8% and the thirty-year yield at 2.2% [9]
黑色建材日报:市场预期转弱,钢价弱势运行-20250924
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 05:39
黑色建材日报 | 2025-09-24 市场预期转弱,钢价弱势运行 钢材:市场预期转弱,钢价弱势运行 市场分析 期现货方面:国内钢材市场价格由涨转跌,黑色期货全线下跌,现货价格弱势回调,商家积极出货,成交量萎缩。 螺纹钢主力合约收于3155元/吨;热卷主力合约收于3340元/吨。现货方面,钢材现货成交整体一般,全国建材成交 91977吨,成交量表现相对昨日减少明显。 供需与逻辑:分区域来看,昨日全国各区域建筑钢材成交量表现不同程度下降,极端天气影响下,南方地区物流 运输受阻,终端需求几近停滞,市场情绪面偏差,市场信心不足,致使投机需求减少明显,需求整体偏弱 ,节前 钢市供需基本面改善有限。 策略 单边:震荡偏弱 跨期:无 跨品种:无 期现:无 期权:无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 综合来看,本周铁矿石到港环比小幅下降,铁水产量维持高位,铁矿需求仍在高位,库存维持中位水平。目前铁 矿石需求仍处于高位,后续关注海漂量变化对于到港的影响,以及钢厂节前补库节奏。 策略 单边:震荡 跨品种:无 铁矿:市场谨慎观望,铁矿震荡运行 市场分析 期现货方面:昨日铁矿石期货盘面价格小 ...
美股盘前纳指期货上涨1.1%,热门中概股普跌,现货黄金小幅上涨
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-18 09:24
美联储最新利率决议虽如期降息,但其谨慎的政策信号抑制了市场对未来持续宽松的乐观预期。投资者在复杂的信号中重新评估市场前景。 更重要的是,美联储决策者的利率预测点阵图显示,他们预计今年还将有两次降息,但到2026年仅有一次。这与交易员们的预期形成了对比,后 者此前已消化了明年将有两到三次降息的预期。 Bolvin Wealth Management Group总裁Gina Bolvin在一份声明中表示: 18日周四,美股纳斯达克100指数期货上涨1.1%,触及盘中高点。美股盘前热门中概股普跌,京东、拼多多、理想汽车、百度、阿里巴巴跌1%, 小鹏汽车跌2%,哔哩哔哩、蔚来跌3%。美元指数下跌0.05%至96.98。现货黄金上涨0.15%至3665.13。 欧股普涨,德国DAX指数涨幅扩大至1%。英国富时100指数开盘上涨0.21%。法国CAC40指数开盘上涨0.41%。欧洲斯托克50指数开盘上涨 0.64%。 鲍威尔讲话抑制宽松预期 美股纳斯达克100指数期货上涨1.1%,触及盘中高点。美股盘前热门中概股普跌,京东、拼多多、理想汽车、百度、阿里巴巴跌1%,小鹏汽车跌 2%,哔哩哔哩、蔚来跌3%。 尽管美联储实施了 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250917
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report This report provides trend forecasts and analysis of fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. It also presents macro and industry news and calculates the trend strength of each commodity. The overall view is that most commodities will show a trend of range - bound or volatile fluctuations, and some commodities will be affected by factors such as supply - demand relations, macro - economic policies, and international news [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to have a downward revision of non - farm employment, with a trend strength of 0, and prices may be affected by the Fed's interest rate decision [2][7]. - **Silver**: Forecasted to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][7]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Before the Fed's decision, prices will be cautious, with a trend strength of 0. The industry has major events such as mergers and production changes [2][12]. - **Zinc**: Will have a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Lacks obvious driving forces, and prices will fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Will experience range - bound fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: Will have a range - bound shock; Alumina will grind the bottom in a shock; Casting aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel will have a game between long - and short - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Will fluctuate, and the increase in supply restricts the upward space, with a trend strength of 0 [2][36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short at high prices; Polysilicon requires attention to market information, with a trend strength of 0 for industrial silicon and 1 for polysilicon [2][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of - 1 [2][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The anti - involution sentiment is back, and both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][46][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, both will have a relatively strong shock, with a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations will fluctuate repeatedly, with a wide - range shock, and a trend strength of 0 [2][55][56]. - **Log**: Will fluctuate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58]. Others - **LPG**: Will have a short - term narrow - range and relatively strong shock [2][50]. - **Propylene**: Will operate weakly at a high level in the short term [2][50]. - **PVC**: Will have a wide - range shock [2][53]. - **Fuel Oil**: Will rebound following crude oil and have a short - term adjustment trend; Low - sulfur fuel oil will continue to rise, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market will rise slightly [2][54]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The contract in October will operate under pressure; Contracts in December and February will have a wide - range shock [2][55]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Will follow cost fluctuations in the short term, with a weak trend [2][58]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Will fluctuate at a low level [2][59]. - **Pure Benzene**: Will fluctuate in the short term and be weak in the fourth quarter [2][61]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by US soybean oil, boosted by macro - factors; Soybean oil: US soybeans continue to rise, and attention should be paid to the results of Sino - US negotiations [2][62]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by optimistic trade sentiment, will fluctuate at a low level; Soybean: Will fluctuate [2][64]. - **Corn**: Will fluctuate [2][66]. - **Sugar**: Has a weak basis [2][67]. - **Cotton**: The market focuses on the situation of new cotton listing [2][68]. - **Egg**: The peak season for spot goods is coming to an end, and inventory is still high [2][70]. - **Live Pig**: The policy expectations have been implemented, but the weakness of spot goods is hard to change [2][71]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][72].
招银国际:市场已完全反映美联储本周减息25个基点预期
智通财经网· 2025-09-16 03:13
Group 1 - The market has fully priced in the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The U.S. Court of Appeals rejected Trump's request to remove Fed Governor Cook, clearing the way for Cook to attend this week's Fed meeting, which may witness internal divisions within the Fed [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, the U.S. dollar index has fallen, and cryptocurrencies have experienced widespread declines, while gold has reached a new high and oil prices have increased [1] Group 2 - The mainland stock market has risen, with Hong Kong's consumer discretionary, energy, and staple consumer sectors leading the gains, while materials, conglomerates, and real estate construction sectors have declined [1] - Biotech, lithium batteries, and smart terminals have performed well, with southbound funds net buying 14.473 billion HKD [1] - In A-shares, electric equipment, media, and agriculture sectors have seen the largest increases, while conglomerates, telecommunications, and defense industries have declined [1] Group 3 - Non-metallic building materials, energy, and iron ore prices have risen, while the yield on RMB government bonds has slightly increased, and the RMB has appreciated slightly [1]
FPG财盛国际:美联储加息 vs 降息:对黄金、股市等影响有多大?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 02:37
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions significantly impact global financial markets, influencing assets like gold, stocks, and cryptocurrencies [2]. Group 1: Impact of Interest Rate Hikes - When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the market immediately feels the tightening effect [4]. - Gold, despite being a "safe-haven asset," loses attractiveness in a high-interest environment due to increased opportunity costs [5]. - Technology stocks are particularly sensitive to interest rates, as rate hikes compress their high valuation logic [5]. - Bitcoin, viewed as a "liquidity darling," tends to weaken during rate hike cycles [5]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rate Cuts - Conversely, interest rate cuts are perceived as a signal of "releasing liquidity," leading to lower borrowing costs and increased market inflows [5]. - Gold benefits from lower real interest rates, typically resulting in price increases [5]. - Rising interest rates lead to increased borrowing costs, constraining corporate financing and consumer spending [5]. - A stronger dollar results in capital flowing back to the U.S., tightening global liquidity and putting pressure on risk assets like gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. stocks [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - A recovering stock market, especially growth stocks, may experience rapid rebounds during rate cuts [6]. - The cryptocurrency market becomes more active, with high-risk, high-volatility assets regaining popularity [6]. - Market participants often focus more on future interest rate paths rather than just the announced results, leading to preemptive market movements [8]. - The disparity between market expectations and actual outcomes can lead to significant volatility upon data releases [8].