偏鹰派信号(倾向紧缩) 若纪要中出现"通胀压力高企""需要进一步收紧货币政策""警惕通胀粘性"等表述，意味着央行大概率会 加息或维持高利率政策。市场会预期该货币资产的收益率将上升，吸引国际资本流入，从而推动本币升 值。 例如，美联储会议纪要释放鹰派信号时，美元指数往往会走强；欧洲央行纪要偏鹰则会支撑欧元汇率。 央行会议纪要是货币政策决策过程的书面记录，会从政策预期引导、利率差预期重塑、市场情绪校准三 个核心维度影响汇率走势，其影响逻辑及特点如下： 一、释放货币政策取向信号，引导汇率中长期定价 央行会议纪要的核心价值在于披露政策制定者对经济增速、通胀水平、就业市场的研判，以及对未来货 币政策走向的讨论倾向，这直接决定市场对该货币利率走势的预期，而利率差是汇率定价的核心驱动因 素之一。 会议纪要不仅会披露最终的政策决议，还会记录委员们的讨论分歧。这种分歧程度会直接影响市场对政 策走向的判断，进而引发汇率的短期震荡。 分歧较小：若多数委员对政策取向达成共识，市场预期会趋于一致，汇率走势会沿着政策信号的方向平 稳运行。 分歧较大：若部分委员主张紧缩、部分委员支持宽松，市场会因政策不确定性增加而出现多空博弈，汇 率短期 ...

车企跨界并非盲目跟风，其底层逻辑在于深刻的技术同源性。专家介绍，人形机器人是技术密集型的先进制造业，其所需的视觉感知、电池与热 管理、电机电控及供应链管理能力，与新能源汽车产业高度重叠。奇瑞汽车董事长尹同跃更直言，汽车本身就是"可移动的智能机器人"，两者在 感知、规划、控制等底层技术上同根同源。 这种技术迁移在具体企业中清晰可见。智驾芯片公司黑芝麻智能进军机器人领域，其核心优势正是智能汽车产业积累的AI计算平台经验。商汤科 技发布"大晓机器人"，则旨在将其在计算机视觉与大模型领域的"大脑"优势，与产业链伙伴的"本体"硬件能力相结合。 当前，人形机器人的商业化仍处于早期探索阶段，呈现从易到难、从封闭到开放的路径。文娱商演是目前最成熟的应用场景。不过，更具经济价 值的工业场景正在破冰。天奇股份已与某主机厂签署合同，在汽车物流区部署机器人进行物料分拣与搬运，其核心目标是积累真实场景数据，驱 动算法迭代。这标志着人形机器人开始触及生产流程中重复性高、强度大的环节，验证其降本增效的潜在价值。 巨大的市场预期是吸引各方竞逐的根本动力。摩根士丹利预测，到2050年，全球人形机器人市场规模将达5万亿美元，部署量10亿台。贝恩 ...

央视网消息：据国家税务总局网站消息，2025年12月25日，国务院总理李强签署第826号国务院令，公 布《中华人民共和国增值税法实施条例》（以下简称《条例》），自2026年1月1日起施行。日前，司法 部、财政部、税务总局负责人就《条例》有关问题回答了记者提问。 问：请简要介绍一下制定《条例》的背景。 答：《条例》对增值税法第3条所称"货物""服务""无形资产"和"不动产"作出细化规定：一是货物包括 有形动产、电力、热力、气体等；二是服务包括交通运输服务、邮政服务、电信服务、建筑服务、金融 服务，以及信息技术服务、文化体育服务、鉴证咨询服务等生产生活服务；三是无形资产是指不具实物 形态，但能带来经济利益的资产，包括技术、商标、著作权、商誉、自然资源使用权和其他无形资产； 四是不动产是指不能移动或者移动后会引起性质、形状改变的资产，包括建筑物、构筑物等。财政部、 税务总局将出台配套文件，进一步提出货物、服务、无形资产、不动产的具体范围，报国务院批准后公 布施行。 问：关于规范增值税优惠政策，《条例》作了哪些规定？ 答：党的二十届四中全会提出，规范税收优惠政策。《条例》主要作了以下三方面规定：一是明确增值 税法中农 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Piglets, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, MEG, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Propylene, Butadiene, Ethylene, Propylene Oxide, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Views - The stock index is expected to remain strong in the short - term after breaking through the previous shock range, while the bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy but face interest - rate risks in the short - term [1]. - Metal prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment, industrial fundamentals, and policy factors. For example, nickel and stainless - steel prices are influenced by Indonesian policies, and tin prices are affected by industry initiatives and geopolitical situations [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, factors such as OPEC+ policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect prices. For instance, BR rubber is supported by cost and market sentiment, and PTA benefits from strong PX prices and high polyester consumption [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as production expectations, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions. For example, palm oil has a bearish outlook due to supply expectations, and cotton is in a state of "supported but no drive" [1]. Summary by Categories Stock Index and Bonds - Stock Index: The market sentiment and liquidity are in good condition. The index broke through the previous shock range and is expected to remain strong in the short - term [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: The industrial situation is weak, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, resulting in high - level oscillations [1]. - Aluminum: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is volatile, leading to price oscillations [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the price remains low in the short - term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, and the negative factors have basically been realized. The price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - Nickel: Global nickel inventory is high, but supply concerns have led to a recent sharp rebound in Shanghai nickel. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material price has stabilized, the social inventory has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [1]. - Tin: Affected by the industry initiative, the price oscillates weakly in the short - term. Considering the tense situation in Congo - Kinshasa and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. - Gold: After reaching a record high, it may oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to strong US economic data and weakened interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Platinum: The domestic futures price has a large premium over the spot and foreign markets, and the market is expected to be volatile. Rational participation is recommended [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by OPEC+ policies, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuela, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. - Bitumen: It follows crude oil in the short - term. The supply of Marey crude oil is sufficient, and the profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: The transaction has improved, the cost has increased, and the market sentiment is strong due to rumors of a factory shutdown [1]. - PTA: The PX price is strong, the PTA device operates at a high load, and the polyester consumption is high [1]. - MEG: Supply - side news has stimulated a rebound, and the polyester downstream demand is better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The cost has some support, the market sentiment has improved slightly, but the inventory is high [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: High - frequency data has improved, but the supply in the producing areas is expected to be loose. Rebound selling is recommended [1]. - Cotton: It is currently in a state of "supported but no drive". Attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, and weather conditions in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic supply. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous drive [1]. - Piglets: Affected by weather and supply - demand relationships, the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with limited decline [1]. - Soybean Meal: There is a risk of selling pressure due to high - yield expectations, and the price is affected by reserve rumors [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, unilateral investment is recommended to be on the sidelines, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered [1]. - Logs: Affected by external quotes and spot price declines, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pigs: The supply is yet to be fully released, and the price is affected by demand support and inventory [1].

早在2018年1月24日，设研院股价最高冲击至19.45元/股（前复权）；截至目前，公司股价仅剩不到8元/股，较2018年1月24 日的最高价回调超过60%。 尽管今日（12月24日），设研院(300732)股价反弹1.34%，但自今年8月11日至今，公司股价累计跌幅依然超过35%，这一跌 幅不仅位居申万二级工程咨询服务的首位，也位居整个A股市场跌幅的前25名。 对于股价的下跌，有投资者在互动平台表达不满。12月18日，有投资者提问"贵公司自今年8月8日后连续单边下跌截止到日 前已达-42.5%之多，且毫无反弹，对二级市场的投资者造成极大的伤害。" 公司回复称："近期股价下跌主要受多重因素综合影响：一是工程咨询行业整体受宏观经济周期、基建投资节奏调整影响， 市场预期较为谨慎；二是二级市场资金面、情绪面波动传导至个股；三是公司部分项目回款周期较预期有延长，短期影响 市场信心。但公司基本面未发生重大变化，核心技术优势、客户资源及市场竞争力保持稳定。" ...

Core Insights - The Nasdaq index is highly sensitive to interest rate changes due to its significant allocation in growth and technology stocks, leading to rapid valuation adjustments in response to discount rate changes [1] - Market reactions to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements often involve a two-phase process: an initial reaction followed by a digestion phase, where traders reassess the implications of the statements [2] - The relationship between bond yields and the Nasdaq index is crucial; rising yields can limit the index's upward momentum, while declining yields tend to support continued gains [3] Market Dynamics - Initial reactions to FOMC meetings are characterized by algorithmic trading responding to headlines, resulting in increased volatility due to temporary liquidity contraction [2] - The Nasdaq index often experiences significant intraday volatility on FOMC meeting days, reflecting the two-phase market response [2] Trading Pitfalls - A common misconception is that dovish statements guarantee market gains; disappointment from the Fed not exceeding expectations can lead to market reversals [4] - Historical performance indicates that the Nasdaq index accelerates during easing cycles but may stagnate or decline when interest rate expectations shift [4] - Traders often misinterpret the balance the Fed strikes between optimism and caution, leading to potential misjudgments in market reactions [4] Strategic Approaches - A disciplined trading strategy should involve waiting for market volatility to stabilize before entering positions, as this helps clarify risk and avoid emotional trading [5] - Adjusting investment preferences based on yield trends rather than headlines is recommended; alignment with expected interest rate movements can enhance market confidence [5] Risk Management - In the current environment, position sizing and risk management are deemed more critical than precision in trading decisions [6] Outlook - The Nasdaq index is expected to maintain high volatility around FOMC meetings as discussions on policy shifts continue, with each meeting potentially reshaping market expectations [7] - Successful trading hinges on understanding market reaction patterns rather than predicting policy outcomes, with patience and flexibility being key for long-term investors [7]

上周末，高新某新计容楼盘首开，虽然备案价并不高，且已经释放了94折优惠，但首开现场依然给出了最高9折的首开优惠。 诸如此类优惠加码的项目还有很多，如肥西有现房楼盘给出了"买就送25万黄金"的高额优惠，省府东有改善盘把折扣下探到了7折以下等 等。 可见，当前新房市场环境下，在品质迭代、新计容的新鲜感逐渐消退后，部分地段或者品牌没有优势的项目，房企只能采用最原始的竞 争方式：价格战。 但换个角度，也是能理解。 上述房企手里有大量居住用地，此前没有多少住宅开发经验和成熟团队，又有销量、回款的任务和压力，想和其他知名房企竞争，怎么 办？只能靠堆料和低价来取胜。 尤其类似城投经开地块备案价稍高，给华润嘉宸做了嫁衣的事情后，平台公司对备案价的态度更加谨慎，以保障自身去化为先，毕竟"死 队友不死贫道"。 当然，从购房者的角度，是乐于看到价格战的，能够以更低的价格买到房子。 关于价格这块，今年争议比较多的是地方平台公司开发楼盘的备案价，如轨道姚公庙地块、城投东新地块，以及轨道高新地块等等。 在大家的想法里，可能平台公司频繁拿地，其目的是托底，不止是托土地市场，也托新房销售市场。 而现实是备案价一降再降，不仅没有起到托底的作用 ...

黄蕾 焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 政策利好刺激 双焦大幅反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 一、交易数据 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 3125 | 41 | 1.33 | 838111 | 2374085 | 元/吨 | | SHFE 热卷 | 3277 | 32 | 0.99 | 279994 | 1191178 | 元/吨 | | DCE 铁矿石 | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-16 中国表需较好难敌供应⼤增，原油带领 化⼯延续偏弱格局 彭博根据我国原油加工量和成品油净进口推算出我国的石油表需， 11月同比增长4.53%，1-11月同比增长3.32%。中国的石油需求比市场年初 预估地表现要好，而影响价格的另一端是供给，全球的供给增速远超需 求。随着俄罗斯原油开始逐步被买家接受，原油的地缘溢价出现回落，印 度2025年12月购买俄油量预估为130万桶/日（Kpler数据），而一周多前 预估值仅有50-60万桶/日；另一个重要买家近期也有买盘涌现。油价临近 近期一个月多月的震荡平台下沿，月差和绝对值的同步走弱预估市场有破 位的可能。 板块逻辑： 原油无疑是化工端最大的方向指引，化工供需格局的边际转强将以价 差、基差、利润等形式体现，原油的弱势决定了化工难有单边走高。周一 液体化工库存公布，MEG周度继续累库，乙二醇库存从五年最低逐步升至 五年中位水平；纯苯华东港口库存周度持平，同比增速仍高达72%；苯乙 烯华东港口周度略去库，环比下降8.2%，绝对值仍是五年最高。1月合约 主力资金逐步转移至5 ...

12月12日，美联储如期降息，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 3.50%–3.75%。美元指数大幅 走弱，最低触及 98.6，创下一个月低位。10 年期国债收益率同步下挫 0.88 个百分点至 4.19%，录得近 一个半月来最大单日跌幅，也推动金银等贵金属价格迅速上扬。美联储主席鲍威尔会后表示，当前利率 水平已为未来的经济局势做好准备，但对于近期是否继续降息并未松口。外界分析认为，尽管官方表态 谨慎，但市场仍普遍押注未来仍有宽松空间，这为金价带来支撑。 在金丰来看来，这轮降息后的市场反应更像是前期压抑情绪的一次集中释放。金价方面，4 小时图显 示，20 周期简单移动平均线稳定运行在 100 周期上方，长周期均线也在现价下方温和上行，显示买盘 力量重新占据主导。金价站稳短周期均线上方，使短线看多氛围仍在延续。不过金丰来认为，技术指标 暂未呈现强势突破信号：动能指标仍在 0 下方走低，而 RSI 虽处于 53 的中性区间，但方向感不够明 确。短线阻力集中在 4268–4278 美元区间，若突破，4300 美元整数位将成为新的目标位；下方 4190 美 元为关键支撑，为降息后涨势的起点，若短时间跌破，该 ...