Core Viewpoint - A key ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court may dismantle the core of the Trump administration's tariff policy, potentially requiring the government to refund a substantial amount of tariffs to importers and reshape U.S. trade barriers [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Context - The Supreme Court case "Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc." centers on whether the "norms of imports" in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) implicitly grants the president the authority to impose tariffs, despite the absence of explicit mention of "tariffs" in the statute [2]. - Opponents argue that the power to levy tariffs belongs to Congress, requiring clearer authorization for large-scale tariff actions by the government [2]. Group 2: Financial Implications - If the IEEPA tariffs are ruled illegal, the government may be forced to refund approximately $130 billion to $140 billion in tariff revenue, which would significantly impact the federal budget deficit, equating to 7.9% of the projected $1.8 trillion deficit for 2025 [4]. - The refund amount represents only 0.5% of the estimated U.S. GDP for 2025, indicating a minimal macroeconomic boost, but a substantial short-term impact on federal finances [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - For U.S. companies directly paying tariffs, receiving refunds would provide unexpected financial relief, particularly benefiting small companies with fewer than 500 employees, which are estimated to receive about one-third of the refunds [8]. - The overall effective tariff rate may decrease, enhancing household purchasing power and supporting economic growth and corporate profits, although the positive effects on the S&P 500 index may be negligible [8][9]. Group 4: Future Trade Policy - The government is expected to utilize other legal tools to rebuild tariff barriers if the IEEPA tariffs are invalidated, including the Trade Act of 1974 and the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, although these processes may be more time-consuming and less flexible [10]. - The potential for targeted tariffs may increase, particularly against countries with significant trade surpluses with the U.S., leading to greater disparities in tariff rates among different countries [11].

Group 1 - Bill Gross warns that gold has become a "momentum/meme asset" and advises potential buyers to "wait a bit longer" [1] - Regional banks' credit issues may continue to impact stock and bond markets, with Gross highlighting recent loan fraud cases at two U.S. regional banks [1] - Zions Bank reported a $60 million provision for two loans and wrote off $50 million, which represents 5% of its expected earnings for 2025 [1] Group 2 - Gross predicts that the U.S. economy is slowing down and will soon see growth drop to 1%, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will not fall below 4%, likely approaching 4.5% [1] - Following Gross's comments, spot gold prices reached a historical high near $4,380 but fell over 2% to below $4,250 during trading [1]