证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 伊朗局势与特朗普的政治押注 ——国际时政周评 回顾：伊朗局势。 未来一周：伊朗局势；俄乌谈判；美国古巴局势；巴基斯坦阿富汗局势。 ❑ 上周时政回顾：美国以色列袭击伊朗，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊身亡。 魏芸 S1090522010002 weiyun@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 1、受伊朗局势持续紧张推动，本周布伦特油价上涨 2.8%，已包含部分地 缘风险溢价，关注后续伊朗和霍尔木兹海峡形势。 2、美以军事行动力度超出预期。截至目前美方如预期在谈判无果时采取了 "精准军事打击"——但精准到了哈梅内伊个人。对哈梅内伊进行定点 打击一直是可能选项，但原预计伊朗政权崩溃的政治后果可能会对特朗 普形成约束。 3、为什么美国、以色列要对伊朗执行打击？a)经过过去两年多的中东战 争，美以或判断迎来了彻底打击中东反美反以势力、稳定中东的历史性 机遇。b)以色列今年 10 月大选（或提前），内塔尼亚胡有充分动力发 动重大军事行动巩固国内支持，且内塔尼亚胡对特朗普的影响和游说非 常明显。c)外部环境看，俄罗斯处于俄乌冲突，美俄关系 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that President Trump is focused on acquiring Greenland, viewing it as a national security priority for the United States, particularly in deterring adversaries in the Arctic region [1][2] - The U.S. has a historical interest in Greenland, dating back to 1946 when the Truman administration proposed a trade for the island, which was rejected by Denmark [2] - Greenland's strategic location is crucial for U.S. military operations, especially during the Cold War, and it plays a key role in NATO's anti-submarine warfare strategy [2][3] Group 2 - Greenland is rich in natural resources such as rare earth elements, graphite, copper, and nickel, which are essential for energy transition and chip manufacturing [3] - The melting ice in Greenland is making resource extraction easier, increasing its attractiveness for U.S. manufacturing revival efforts [3] - Trump's ambitions for territorial expansion include not only Greenland but also aspirations regarding Canada and the Panama Canal, indicating a desire to leave a political legacy [3] Group 3 - Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen warned that a military attack on Greenland could end the NATO alliance, emphasizing the seriousness of Trump's intentions [4] - Denmark has reiterated that Greenland is protected under NATO's collective security mechanism and has called for the U.S. to cease threats against its ally [5] - A joint statement from several European countries affirmed that Greenland belongs to its people and that only Denmark and Greenland can decide their own affairs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's recent actions regarding Greenland, including high-profile appointments and declarations of intent to acquire the territory, reflect a predatory diplomatic approach that has sparked strong opposition from Denmark and the EU [1][3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Reactions - President Trump has emphasized the necessity of acquiring Greenland for national security, stating, "We must get it" [2]. - The appointment of Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as the U.S. Special Envoy to Greenland aims to promote American interests, with Landry suggesting that Greenland should become part of the U.S. [3]. - Denmark's Prime Minister and Greenland's Premier issued a joint statement opposing U.S. territorial claims, reaffirming respect for Denmark's territorial integrity [3][6]. Group 2: Diplomatic Tensions - The U.S. has employed various tactics, including public pressure and covert operations, to influence Greenland's affairs, with Trump making aggressive statements about potential military or economic coercion [7]. - High-level U.S. visits to Greenland have been perceived as provocations, with local officials describing them as attempts to undermine Danish authority [7]. - Reports indicate that U.S. intelligence activities have intensified regarding Greenland, focusing on local independence movements and attitudes towards U.S. resource extraction [7]. Group 3: Strategic and Economic Considerations - Analysts suggest that the U.S. interest in Greenland is driven by its strategic location, which has been significant since the Cold War, and its role in NATO's defense strategy [10]. - Greenland is rich in natural resources such as rare earth elements, graphite, copper, and nickel, which are critical for energy transition and technology manufacturing [10]. - The melting ice in Greenland is making resource extraction more feasible, increasing its attractiveness for U.S. manufacturing revival efforts [10]. Group 4: Political Ambitions - Trump's ambitions regarding Greenland are seen as part of a broader desire to leave a political legacy, with comparisons drawn to 19th-century imperialism [12]. - The administration's expansionist rhetoric may exacerbate international tensions and lead to greater isolation for the U.S. [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the United States' aggressive interest in Greenland, highlighting President Trump's actions and statements that reflect a desire for territorial acquisition, which has sparked strong opposition from Denmark and the EU [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Reactions - President Trump appointed Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as the U.S. Special Envoy to Greenland, emphasizing the need for Greenland for national security and expressing intentions to make it part of the U.S. [3] - Denmark's Prime Minister and Greenland's Premier issued a joint statement opposing U.S. claims over Greenland, asserting the importance of respecting Denmark's territorial integrity [3][4]. - The EU Commission President expressed support for Denmark, reinforcing the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty under international law [4]. Group 2: U.S. Strategies and Tactics - The Trump administration has employed various tactics, including public pressure, domestic interference, and covert operations, to influence Greenland's affairs [5]. - Reports indicate that U.S. intelligence agencies have intensified their operations in Greenland, focusing on the local independence movement and attitudes towards U.S. resource extraction [5][6]. - The U.S. has made uninvited visits to Greenland, with high-level officials attempting to sway local governance and public opinion towards favoring U.S. interests [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Considerations - Analysts suggest that the U.S. interest in Greenland is driven by multiple factors, including its strategic location, economic resources, and Trump's desire to leave a political legacy [8]. - Greenland's rich natural resources, such as rare earth elements and minerals, are increasingly valuable as climate change makes extraction easier, aligning with U.S. manufacturing goals [8]. - The strategic significance of Greenland in military and geopolitical terms has been recognized since the Cold War, with its location being crucial for NATO operations [8].

Group 1 - Former President Biden claims that European leaders and U.S. officials have been in contact with him since Trump's presidency, expressing concerns over his achievements being rapidly altered [1] - Biden attributes the strengthening of NATO to his leadership, noting that Finland and Sweden joined NATO during his term, and emphasizes the significant U.S. defense aid to Ukraine [2][3] - Biden mentions his ongoing political discussions with both Democratic and Republican colleagues, indicating a desire to remain involved in political matters [3] Group 2 - White House spokesperson Anna Kelly asserts that no one is seeking Biden's advice due to his disastrous foreign policy, contrasting it with Trump's achievements in NATO defense spending and Iran's nuclear capabilities [3][4] - Kelly highlights Trump's successes, including the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, historical stock market highs, and enhanced border security [4] - Former White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney comments on Biden's speaking engagement, speculating on his potential earnings from the event [4]