24日，香港特区行政长官李家超表示，香港特区政府支持国家对日本的外交政策。日本领导人公然发表 错误言论，严重恶化了中日友好交流的气氛，特区政府会密切关注相关发展，作出对应调整。 据"大湾区之声"微博消息，香港特区政府保安局局长邓炳强11月25日表示，如行政长官李家超所言，特 区政府将会跟随国家政策决定下一步对日本的措施。 ...

河浪武史：特朗普上台10个月。尽管开始在减税和移民问题上取得成果，但在对华外交和控 制物价方面陷入苦战。无党派群体对特朗普的支持率已从46%降至33%，开始面临支持率走 低和迷失方向这两大风险…… 河浪武史： 美国特朗普政府已上台10个月。虽然最初在投资减税和移民政策等方面取得成 果，但目前在对华外交和控制物价方面明显陷入苦战。在中期选举和总统选举中重要的无党 派群体对特朗普的支持率下降，特朗普已开始部分下调关税等，对过激的政策进行修正。 "应深刻反省的不是纽约市长选举，而是弗吉尼亚州州长选举"，特朗普政府的高官这样表 示。在弗吉尼亚州，民主党时隔3年从共和党手中夺回州长宝座。 决定选举胜败的是无党派群体。在2021年的上届州长选举中，54%的无党派群体投票支持共 和党候选人。这一次发生改变，59%的人投给了民主党候选人，比共和党候选人（40%）高 出19个百分点。 | | 特朗普政权的运营踩下刹车 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 内政 | 应对住房问题 | 住房支出维持4%左右 的涨幅 | | | 应对医疗费用 | 医院服务上涨5% | | | 治安问题 | 1~9月个人破产增加 | | ...

据香港大公文汇全媒体11月24日报道，据多家媒体援引日媒消息报道，香港特区政府开始停止与日本驻 港总领事馆的官方交流活动。 李家超： 特区政府支持国家对日外交政策 图源：港媒 报道称，日本共同社消息称，香港投资推广署原定于18日举办的一场企业交流活动，主办方要求日本领 事馆人员不得出席，活动随后宣告延期举办。此外，有消息称特区政府负责经济政策的高层官员，原定 12月上旬与日本驻港领事三浦润会面，但已被特区政府通知取消。 对此，香港特区行政长官李家超24日下午对记者表示，香港特区政府支持国家对日本的外交政策。日本 领导人公然发表错误言论，严重恶化了中日友好交流的气氛，特区政府会密切关注相关发展，作出对应 调整。李家超提醒在日港人提高警觉，注意人身安全。 因应外交部近日就中国公民前往日本发出的提醒，香港保安局11月15日更新外游警示制度网页，呼吁计 划前往或已在日本的港人提高警惕，注意安全。 另外，香港教育局11月21日证实，原定下月香港青年赴日本参加"21世纪东亚青少年大交流计划"行程已 经取消。 孔尔军 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 ...

Group 1 - The South Korean government has officially changed the order of its official references to East Asian countries to "Korea-China-Japan" as part of efforts to improve relations with China [1][2] - This change reflects a shift in diplomatic stance, moving away from the previous order "Korea-Japan-China" used by the former administration, which was seen as favoring Japan [2] - Analysts suggest that the current administration under Lee Jae-myung is attempting to restore diplomatic balance and improve relations with China, contrasting with the previous government's pro-Japan approach [2] Group 2 - The new Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has made controversial statements regarding Taiwan and territorial disputes, leading to diplomatic tensions with both China and South Korea [3] - South Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a strong protest against Japan's claims over the disputed territory of Dokdo, indicating rising tensions in the region [3] - Public protests in Japan against Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks highlight domestic discontent and the potential for increased political instability in Japan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global market trading focus will shift from Trump's election victory to preparations for the midterm elections, with the outcome of the 2026 midterm elections directly impacting the political landscape for Trump and the Republican Party [2]. Group 1: Midterm Elections - Trump's 2026 Policy Line - The midterm elections are crucial for Trump, as they may represent the last significant electoral battle of his political career, with a high likelihood of increased political resistance if he loses [4][22]. - Historical data shows that the president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections, with an average loss of 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate over the last 20 elections [16][20]. - The significance of the midterm elections is heightened for Trump, as a defeat could severely limit his political ambitions during the final years of his presidency [21][22]. Group 2: Trade Policy - Continued Uncertainty and Conflict - Trump's trade policy is expected to remain unpredictable, with potential for renewed tariff conflicts as a means to rally voter support and shift internal political pressures outward [4][33]. - The Supreme Court's upcoming decision on Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs may lead to alternative legal strategies for implementing tariffs if the ruling is unfavorable [34][38]. - The anticipated increase in tariff revenue could help alleviate fiscal pressures and support Trump's broader economic agenda leading up to the midterm elections [47]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - More Rate Cuts and Lower Credit Quality - The new Federal Reserve chair, expected to take office in May 2026, is likely to implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market anticipates, with projections of at least four rate cuts by the end of next year [5][61]. - Lower interest rates are seen as essential for stimulating economic growth and supporting stock markets, particularly in light of the negative impacts of tariffs [49][51]. - The anticipated shift in monetary policy could lead to a weaker dollar and increased credit challenges, impacting overall market sentiment [48][56]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy - Necessity and Feasibility of Expansion - There is a pressing need for expanded fiscal policies to stimulate demand and counteract the negative effects of tariffs as the midterm elections approach [66][68]. - Increased tariff revenues and reduced fiscal pressure from lower interest rates could provide the necessary funding for expanded fiscal measures without resorting to excessive borrowing [68]. - The experience from the 2018 midterm elections suggests that failure to maintain fiscal expansion could lead to adverse market reactions [68]. Group 5: Foreign Policy - Return to "America First" and Strong Geopolitical Stance - Trump's foreign policy is expected to focus on pragmatic interest exchanges, emphasizing "America First" while managing geopolitical conflicts with limited intervention [69][79]. - Efforts to mediate conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and the Middle East will continue, with a strong emphasis on leveraging economic and military pressure to achieve peace [70][73]. - The approach to foreign policy will likely involve a mix of negotiation and coercion, potentially increasing geopolitical tensions and impacting market risk appetite [79].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significance of critical mineral resources in U.S. foreign policy during Trump's second presidential term, highlighting the urgency to reduce dependence on China for these resources [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Dependency on Critical Minerals - The U.S. is heavily reliant on China for critical minerals, with eight out of nine minerals identified as crucial for the economy having China as their sole or primary source [1]. - Samarium is noted as the most critical mineral, essential for aircraft and missile magnets, with China dominating the entire supply chain from extraction to manufacturing [1][3]. Group 2: Diplomatic Efforts and Agreements - In response to China's export controls on rare earths, the U.S. has been actively seeking alternative sources and signed several agreements, including an $8.5 billion deal with Australia for critical minerals [3][5]. - The U.S. government announced a $1.2 billion investment in two rare earth startups and established a critical mineral agreement with Kazakhstan, which has recently discovered significant rare earth deposits [5]. Group 3: Long-term Challenges - Experts suggest that establishing a secure and independent supply chain for critical minerals in the U.S. could take 10 to 20 years due to underdeveloped production infrastructure in countries like Australia [3][5]. - Despite recent agreements and investments, the U.S. is unlikely to achieve self-sufficiency in critical minerals within a year, indicating a long-term challenge ahead [5]. Group 4: Broader Geopolitical Context - The article emphasizes that mineral resources have become a powerful bargaining chip in U.S. foreign policy, influencing negotiations with various countries, including those in Africa and Central Asia [5][6]. - The U.S. involvement in peace agreements, such as the one between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, is also seen as a strategic move to counter China's influence in resource-rich regions [6].

他原本计划于26日访问中国，肩负着经济与政治双重任务。经济方面，他希望与中方就关键矿产、稀土 等问题展开沟通，政治方面则意图在台海问题上表明所谓的"德国立场"，并借此机会了解中方在俄乌冲 突中的立场。 从经济角度来看，德国作为一个制造业大国，对稀土等关键矿产有着巨大的需求。像宝马电机、西门子 风机等德国工业产品的生产，都离不开来自中国的稀土资源。因此，德国希望中方能够放宽稀土出口管 制，以保障其高端制造业的稳定发展。然而，中方对稀土出口的管制，是基于生态保护、产业安全等多 个方面的理性考虑，并非针对某一特定国家。德国一方面要求中国放松出口管制，另一方面却推动欧盟 出台"反胁迫工具"对华施压，这种两面派的做法无疑显得不够真诚，难以促成中方与之进行深入的合作 谈判。 在政治层面上，瓦德富尔在台海问题上的表态无疑是对中国内政的粗暴干涉。世界上只有一个 中国，台湾是中国的一部分，这是国际社会广泛认可的事实。德国一方面声称坚持一个中国政策，另一 方面却表示要"自行决定政策的具体实施"，并强调"不得武力改变现状"，这实际上是在为"台独"势力站 台，试图模糊焦点，变相干涉中国的内政。这种行为严重伤害了中国人民的感情，也破坏 ...

Core Points - The election of Sanna Takichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister marks a significant historical moment, but she faces immediate challenges due to a lack of majority in both houses of the Diet and her hawkish political stance [1][4][7] Political Landscape - Takichi received 237 votes in the House of Representatives and 125 votes in the House of Councillors, indicating a mixed reception in the Diet [3] - The new cabinet is formed in a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party after the dissolution of the previous coalition with Komeito, leading to a "double minority" situation in the Diet [1][6] Cabinet Composition - The new cabinet includes prominent figures such as Toshimitsu Motegi as Foreign Minister and Shinjiro Koizumi as Defense Minister, aiming to consolidate support within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) [5][6] - Only two women were appointed to the cabinet, which is below expectations set by Takichi's earlier statements about gender representation [6] Economic and Domestic Policy - Takichi has pledged to address rising prices and economic challenges, indicating a focus on economic policy in her upcoming speeches [3][4] - The cabinet's formation reflects a blend of rewarding supporters and maintaining party unity, with a notable emphasis on conservative agendas such as constitutional reform and increased defense spending [4][5] Foreign Relations - Takichi's administration will need to navigate complex relationships with the U.S. and neighboring countries, particularly in light of upcoming meetings with U.S. President Trump [7][8] - Her hawkish stance may complicate Japan's diplomatic relations, especially with China and South Korea, where historical issues could become contentious [7][8]

Group 1 - India's recent foreign policy appears inconsistent, particularly in its approach to China, as evidenced by the announcement of a 12% tariff on Chinese steel, signaling economic pressure on China while also aligning with U.S. interests [1] - The tariff on Chinese steel is not solely a response to U.S. pressure but also a protective measure for India's own steel industry, which has been struggling to compete with China's low-cost production [1] Group 2 - China is likely to respond to India's tariff with countermeasures, similar to its past reactions to U.S. tariffs, which could include various strong retaliatory actions [3] - One potential countermeasure could involve restricting rare earth exports to India, which would severely impact India's military capabilities, as it relies heavily on Chinese rare earth materials for high-tech weaponry [5] Group 3 - China's infrastructure aid to India has significantly improved local infrastructure and created jobs; a cessation of this aid could lead to stalled projects and increased unemployment, putting political pressure on the Modi government [7] - India's manufacturing sector, while growing, still depends on Chinese raw materials and processing services; a disruption in this supply chain could lead to widespread factory shutdowns and economic turmoil [10] Group 4 - The electronic payment system in India is largely reliant on Chinese technology; if China halts its support, it could lead to a collapse of India's payment systems, reverting to cash transactions and severely impacting economic activities [14] Group 5 - Overall, while India's foreign policy may seem uncertain, China holds significant leverage over India, and appropriate countermeasures from China could compel the Modi government to seek reconciliation [15]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's claim that India will stop purchasing Russian oil is contradicted by data showing an increase in imports, highlighting a disconnect between political statements and actual trade practices [1][3][5]. Group 1: India-Russia Oil Trade - India imported an average of 1.8 million barrels of Russian oil daily in the first half of October, an increase of 250,000 barrels from September [3]. - Russian oil now accounts for approximately 35% of India's total oil imports, a significant rise from less than 1% before the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5]. - Despite Trump's assertions, India's government has not officially committed to halting Russian oil purchases, maintaining a focus on national interests and consumer protection [1][9]. Group 2: U.S.-India Trade Relations - Following the imposition of a 25% punitive tariff on Indian goods by Trump, India's exports to the U.S. fell by 14.35% in August and further declined by 20.7% in September [7]. - India is negotiating with the U.S. to resolve trade issues, with potential to increase oil purchases from the U.S. by $15 billion [7]. - Indian officials have not mentioned stopping Russian oil purchases during trade discussions, indicating a lack of intention to compromise on this issue [9]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - Rahul Gandhi, leader of India's main opposition party, criticized Prime Minister Modi for allegedly allowing Trump to dictate India's energy policy, particularly regarding Russian oil [10]. - Gandhi's criticisms appear politically motivated, aiming to undermine Modi's government rather than reflecting the actual state of India's energy imports [17]. - Modi's government is balancing relations between the U.S. and China, seeking to maintain energy security while navigating complex geopolitical dynamics [28]. Group 4: Rare Earth Materials - India has committed not to resell rare earth materials imported from China to the U.S., a move aimed at securing its supply chain amid rising demand for these critical materials [19][26]. - Rare earths are essential for various industries, including electric vehicles and defense, with India relying on China for 90% of its supply [20]. - The commitment to not resell rare earths reflects India's strategy to stabilize its relationship with China while pursuing economic transformation in high-tech sectors [22][28].