Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The core contradiction in the corn market lies in the game between tight supply in the producing areas and weak downstream demand. Policy auctions and import substitution continue to cool market sentiment, and the short - term corn price gradually moves down under the interweaving of multiple factors [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Current Market Price Situation - This week, the national corn price maintained a narrow - range fluctuation. In the Northeast, the grass - roots grain sales are nearly over, and the grain rights have transferred to traders. In North China, the arrivals at deep - processing enterprises are at a high level, inventories are accumulating, and some enterprises have cut prices. In the southern sales areas, the prices are stable but weak due to the decline in northern port prices and the suppression of substitutes [5]. Situation of Grain Sales - The domestic corn - producing areas are in a pattern of continuous tight supply and intensified market game. In the Northeast main - producing areas, grass - roots grain sales are nearing the end, and the grain source is shifting from farmers to the trading link. The overall grain - selling progress in the Northeast is 82%, 3 percentage points higher than last week; the overall grain - selling progress in the North China and Huanghuai main - producing areas is about 76%, 4 percentage points higher than last week. The overall grain - selling progress is 6% lower than the same period last year, and the circulating grain source is continuously tight. In terms of inventory structure, the dry - grain inventories of traders and drying towers in the producing areas are lower than the same period last year, and most are in a state of cost inversion at the current spot price, with a strong willingness to hold prices. As the temperature rises, the storage pressure of grass - roots damp grain increases, and some farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain has increased; but traders have no active price - cut and selling behavior due to cost pressure, and the sentiment of holding grain and waiting is still there. Overall, the prices in the producing areas are oscillating at a high level, with firm prices in the Northeast and narrow - range oscillations in North China [6]. Port Inventory and Price - This week, the prices of the north - south ports decreased slightly. The purchase price of second - class corn at Jinzhou Port in the north dropped to 2345 - 2355 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of about 10 yuan/ton; the平仓 price was reported at 2390 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan. This is mainly because traders in the Northeast producing areas are more willing to sell at high prices, the effective market supply has increased, and downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in a significant accumulation of inventories at the four northern ports to 2.541 million tons, a weekly increase of 359,000 tons, while the shipping volume decreased by 117,000 tons to 635,000 tons, showing a situation of increasing port inventory and decreasing shipments. The price at Shekou Port in the south is relatively firm but overall weak. The self - pick - up price is maintained at 2500 yuan/ton, but the domestic trade inventory has dropped to 234,000 tons, and the domestic trade shipping volume has also decreased to 205,000 tons, reflecting the lack of enthusiasm of downstream pick - up. The prices in the sales areas are stable but weak, and the core pressure comes from the competition of substitutes. Although there is still a rigid demand for feed in the south, under the multiple substitutions of imported sorghum, barley and domestic wheat, the acceptance of high - priced domestic corn by enterprises in the sales areas is limited, and most of the purchases are made as needed. The market is full of waiting - and - seeing sentiment, resulting in a slowdown in port shipments and a loosening of prices in the sales areas [7]. Impact of Import Substitution and Policy Auctions - Imported grains and domestic policy auctions together form the core pressure and supply variables in the current corn market, and their impacts are mainly reflected in price competition, demand diversion and market sentiment. Imported grains such as sorghum and barley are suppressing the demand for domestic corn with significant price advantages. The price of imported sorghum at Nantong Port is 2470 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton lower than the corn price at the same port, which directly prompts feed enterprises to increase their purchases to reduce costs and squeezes the feed share of corn. The impact of policy auctions is more critical. Although the reserve price of the minimum - purchase - price rice auction has been lowered, the cost of processed brown rice is still over 3000 yuan/ton, so it does not form a real substitute for the corn market, and it is more of a policy - signal impact. If the reserve price of the targeted auction of old rice is significantly lowered to 1450 - 1600 yuan/ton, the theoretical port - collection cost of brown rice can be reduced to 2161 - 2325 yuan/ton, which will start to have the ability to compete with the current corn price at the northern ports and may become a new effective substitute. The incremental supply of policy wheat auctions is the most substantial source of pressure at present. The weak wheat price has prompted feed enterprises in North China and East China to increase the wheat substitution ratio to 20% - 50%, directly and massively squeezing the feed demand for corn. Overall, imported grains and policy auctions not only divert the corn demand through actual consumption but also change the market mentality. Traders are more willing to sell, and downstream enterprises slow down their purchases of high - priced corn due to diversified choices. The market waiting - and - seeing sentiment intensifies, jointly suppressing the upward space of corn prices [8][9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans 1**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Soybean Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Soybean Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Palm Oil**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: ★★★ [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Corn**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Live Pigs**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Eggs**: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market is affected by concentrated geopolitical and macro - risk events with unclear directions, and the macro - situation's influence on overall commodities needs attention [2][4] - Different agricultural products have different market trends and influencing factors, and short - term trends are mainly in a state of shock, with some products having potential downward pressure [2][3][4][6][7][8][9] Summary by Category Beans 1 - Policy - end soybean auctions increase marginal supply, with all 60,608 tons of planned auctions sold at an average price of 4,298 yuan/ton, a premium of 210 - 310 yuan/ton [2] - Affected by macro factors, volatility increases, and short - term attention should be paid to policies and market sentiment [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - US soybeans rose and then fell, and the main contract of Dalian soybean meal M2605 fell 1.05% [3] - In late January, the domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.3 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory rose to about 900,000 tons. In February, the crushing volume is expected to drop to 5.2 million tons, and the inventory may drop to about 650,000 tons [3] - Attention should be paid to the Brazilian soybean harvest, and short - term US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal may continue to be in a weak bottom - shock pattern [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Affected by geopolitical and macro - risk events and the approaching Spring Festival, they are expected to be in a shock pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the overall commodity atmosphere [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed oil is strong and the meal is weak. The Australian seed crushing and rapeseed imports are the focus. The first - quarter Australian seed arrival and crushing will ease the supply tension [6] - Attention should be paid to the new dynamics of Sino - Canadian and US - Canadian economic and trade relations. The short - term rapeseed products are expected to be in a shock pattern [6] Corn - The main corn contract C2603 continues to fluctuate. The national grain sales progress is nearly 60%, and the spot prices in the Northeast and North ports are falling [7] - The downstream enterprises' Spring Festival stocking is basically over, and the trading is dull. The short - term Dalian corn futures are expected to be in a weak shock pattern [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures are running weakly, and the spot prices are mainly falling. The slaughter rhythm is accelerating, and the second - fattening pigs still need to be slaughtered [8] - In the medium and long term, due to the increasing slaughter pressure, the pig price is expected to have a low point in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The egg futures are fluctuating, and the spot prices are falling. The egg price is expected to be weak after the Spring Festival [9] - The chicken - chick replenishment in January shows a recovery, and the egg price in the first half of 2026 has the power to repair upwards. The futures trading strategy is to wait for the spot low point and then configure long positions [9]