关注12月重要会议，逢低做多 股指月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利率与信用环境 02 期现市场 05 资金面 月度评估及策略推荐 重要消息：1、中央政治局会议及中央经济工作会议召开在即，关注会议重点内容；2、国家航天局设立商业航天司 持续推动商业航天高质 量发展；3、世界黄金协会(WGC)报告预计，美债收益率下行、地缘政治风险高企以及显著增强的避险需求叠加，将为黄金提供极为强劲的 顺风，2026年黄金价格有望再上涨15%至30%；4、2025年12月5日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿 元买断式逆回购操作。 经济与企业盈利：1、国家统计局：10月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.9%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.9%，全国固定资产投 资同比下降1.7%；2、11月官方制造业PMI为49.2，前值49.0，考虑到国庆假期影响，符合季节性走势；3、2025年10月份M1增速6.2%，前值 7.2 ...

Core Insights - The continuous increase in margin financing and securities lending (two-in-one) balance reflects the growing activity in the capital market, with the balance surpassing 2.5 trillion yuan, marking a historical high [1] - Securities firms are raising their margin financing limits to attract clients, indicating a response to market demand and a sign of confidence restoration in the capital market [1][2] - The influx of financing is directed towards fundamentally strong companies, particularly in technology growth sectors and leading traditional industries, supporting high-quality economic development [2] Group 1 - The margin financing balance reached a record high of 2.5 trillion yuan as of October 29, with new accounts opened in September increasing by 288% year-on-year [1] - Several securities firms have raised their margin financing limits, with one firm increasing its limit from 150 billion yuan to 250 billion yuan [1] - The active margin financing business provides additional liquidity to the market, enhancing price discovery and supporting the real economy [2] Group 2 - Securities firms are advised to balance growth with risk control, as increased leverage can amplify both potential gains and losses [3] - Some firms are adopting rational strategies, maintaining a stable collateral ratio and implementing comprehensive risk management systems [3] - The expansion of margin financing is expected to help stabilize irrational market fluctuations and attract long-term capital into the market [3]