投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【C 国贸易所 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2026/1/13 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.33 | 5.43 | DR007 | 1.49 | 1.75 | | 员 | GC001 | 1.58 | 23.50 | GC007 | 1.59 | 6.00 | | ਜ | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | 0.30 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.30 | -4.63 | 5年期国债 | 1.64 | -1.12 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.87 | -1.38 | 10年期美债 | 4.18 | -1.00 1 | | | 项目 | 当月合约 | 下月合约 | 当季合约 | 下季合约 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-01-09 沪指继续收阳线 市场分析 等待非农数据。宏观方面，财政部副部长廖岷会见伦敦证券交易所集团首席执行官施维默。廖岷表示，2025年中 国经济稳中向好，有信心有能力保持经济持续健康发展。欢迎伦敦证券交易所集团深化对华合作，共享中国发展 红利。海外方面，美国上周初请失业金人数升至20.8万人，略低于市场预期，仍处于历史低位区间，前值上修1000 人至20万人。美国挑战者报告显示，去年12月裁员人数为35553人，创17个月新低。市场等待非农数据。美国商务 部公布数据显示，2025年10月美国贸易逆差环比大幅收窄39%，降至294亿美元，创2009年6月以来最低水平。 成交维持放量。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡，沪指15连阳，当日跌0.07%收于4082.98点，创业板指跌0.82%。行 业方面，板块指数跌多涨少，国防军工、传媒、建筑装饰、房地产行业涨幅居前，非银金融、有色金属、通信行 业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交额继续维持2.8万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.55%报 49266.11点，纳指跌0.44%报23480.02点。 IM增仓。期货市场，基差方面， ...

| 贵金属期现日报 | | | | TE FEAR | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 2026年1月8日 | | | | | | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月7日 | 1月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | AU2602合约 | 998.90 | 1004.98 | -6.08 | -0.60% | 元/克 | | AG2604合约 | 19290 | 19452 | -162 | -0.83% | 元/千克 | | PT2606合约 | 598.50 | 616.80 | -18.30 | -2.97% | 元/克 | | PD2606合约 | 475.95 | 471.90 | 4.05 | 0.86% | | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 1月7日 | 1月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 4467.10 | 4505.70 | -38. ...

年初配置资金有望入场，逢低做多 股指月报 2025/01/04 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利率与信用环境 02 期现市场 05 资金面 03 经济与企业盈利 06 估值 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 重要消息：1、特朗普称抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人并带离委内瑞拉；2、"十五五"开局之年多型新火箭将首飞并挑战 回收；3、元旦假期，恒生指数及纳斯达克中国金龙指数大涨；4、国家集成电路基金在中芯国际H股的持股比例从4.79%升至 9.25%；5、离岸人民币兑美元升破6.97，最高升至6.9678，创2023年5月以来新高。 经济与企业盈利：1、国家统计局：11月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.8%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长1.3%，全 国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%；2、12月官方制造业PMI为50.1，前值49.2,生产和订单均有所改善；3、2025年11月份M1增速 4.9%，前值6.2%。M2增速8.2%，前值8.0%,主要受基数及财政 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货股指年报 预计股指中期攀升格局未改 20251215 段福林 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F3048935 交易咨询号：Z0015600 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 1 年度观点及策略 2 指数行业走势回顾 3 主力合约和基差走势 4 经济政策 5 各指数营收和净利润 6 估值 8 资金面 9 技术面 7 利率 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 基本面观点 此外，中长期信贷增长率由2022年11月（10.21%）开始企稳回升以来连续上升至2023年月5月高点(12.94%)，然后 一直震荡回落，截止2025年11月，连续30个月回落至5 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 重磅会议临近，市场情绪偏强 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-12-08 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 素 | | | | 经济和企 | 偏空 | 国内11月PMI数据喜忧参半，企业利润增速下行。制造业景气度小幅回暖，但非制造业景气度有所回落。国家统计局公布数据显示，中国11月 官方制造业PMI为49.2%，前值49%，其中供需小幅修复，生产指数回升至荣枯线上，为50.0%，较前值回升0.3个百分点，新订单指数、新出口 | | | | 订单分别较前值小幅回升0.4、1.7个百分点至49.2%、47.6%，但仍处于荣枯线下方。非制造业商务活动指数回落至收缩区间，为49.5%，前值 | | 业盈利 | | 50.1%。 工业企业利润承压下行。 ...

关注12月重要会议，逢低做多 股指月报 2025/12/05 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利率与信用环境 02 期现市场 05 资金面 月度评估及策略推荐 重要消息：1、中央政治局会议及中央经济工作会议召开在即，关注会议重点内容；2、国家航天局设立商业航天司 持续推动商业航天高质 量发展；3、世界黄金协会(WGC)报告预计，美债收益率下行、地缘政治风险高企以及显著增强的避险需求叠加，将为黄金提供极为强劲的 顺风，2026年黄金价格有望再上涨15%至30%；4、2025年12月5日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿 元买断式逆回购操作。 经济与企业盈利：1、国家统计局：10月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长4.9%，社会消费品零售总额同比增长2.9%，全国固定资产投 资同比下降1.7%；2、11月官方制造业PMI为49.2，前值49.0，考虑到国庆假期影响，符合季节性走势；3、2025年10月份M1增速6.2%，前值 7.2 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 市场情绪回暖，股指震荡修复 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-12-01 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | PMI数据喜忧参半。国家统计局公布数据显示，中国11月官方制造业PMI为49.2%，前值49%，供需小幅修复，出口指数显著上涨，供需缺口收 | | 经济和企 业盈利 | 偏空 | 窄至0.8pct。但非制造业商务活动指数回落至收缩区间，为49.5%，前值50.1%。 | | | | 促销费政策陆续推出。六部门印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，《方案》提出，到2027年，消费品供给结构明 | | 宏观政策 | 中性偏多 | 显优化，形成3个万亿级消费领域和10个千亿级消费热点，打造一批富有文化内涵、享誉 ...

Group 1 - The core focus is on the development of private enterprises in China, with a meeting chaired by the National Development and Reform Commission to discuss the "14th Five-Year Plan" and gather suggestions for accelerating the service industry [1] - The meeting included participants from various sectors such as industrial automation, software and information services, industrial internet, and the catering industry [1] - In the overseas market, the U.S. Senate passed a bill to end the government shutdown, with the House of Representatives set to vote on it [1] Group 2 - In the stock market, A-shares opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.39% at 4002.76 points and the ChiNext Index down 1.4% [1] - Sector performance was mixed, with retail, real estate, steel, and basic chemicals leading gains, while telecommunications, electronics, computers, and coal sectors saw declines [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 2 trillion yuan [1] Group 3 - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures has decreased, with increased trading volume for IH and IF contracts, while overall stock index futures positions have declined [1] - The market is entering a phase of consolidation, with reduced trading activity and both bullish and bearish forces weakening [2] - There is a possibility of further adjustment for the Shanghai Composite Index towards the next support level, which may present a buying opportunity for bulls [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the A - share market lacks a clear upward trend due to a relative policy window period, with trading volume remaining low and stock indices continuing to fluctuate. The continuous shutdown risk of the US government increases the adjustment pressure on US stocks and impacts the domestic equity market, but the intraday trend may be repaired by domestic liquidity and market sentiment, providing space for short - term stock index operations. In the medium - to - long - term, the market is expected to have further upward potential, but the progress will be gradual. New driving factors such as the further release of overseas liquidity or substantial improvement signals in the domestic fundamentals will be the key to driving the market up. The investment view is to choose the opportunity to go long [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact on Stock Indices** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In October, affected by tariff policies, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative for the first time since February 2025. Exports to non - ASEAN economies were generally poor, and labor - intensive products and some mechanical and electrical products saw significant declines. The "14th Five - Year Plan" has been implemented, and the domestic policy is in a relatively quiet period, with a negative impact on stock indices [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed seven major economic development goals and twelve major deployments for the next five years, with a neutral - to - positive impact on stock indices [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The continuous shutdown of the US government has led to a decline in US stocks from their highs, which has a certain impact on China's technology sector, with a neutral - to - negative impact on stock indices [3]. - **Liquidity**: The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased compared with the previous week. The current macro - level is in a policy window period, and the A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with a neutral impact on stock indices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Choose the opportunity to go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.8; the Shanghai 50 rose 0.89% to 3038.3; the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 7541.9 [5]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: The weekly returns of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the corresponding indices were 0.57%, 0.68%, - 0.30%, and 0.37% respectively [6]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (5%), steel (4.4%), basic chemicals (3.5%), banks (2.8%), and comprehensive (2.6%) led the gains, while computer (- 2.5%), pharmaceutical biology (- 2.4%), automobile (- 1.2%), food and beverage (- 0.6%), and household appliances (- 0.5%) led the losses [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest of Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased last week. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 futures decreased by 9.37%, and the open interest decreased by 5.03% [11]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of November 7, different contracts of stock index futures showed different premium or discount rates. For example, the IF2511 contract had an annualized discount of 6.46%, and the IH2511 contract had an annualized premium of 0.78% [13]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance**: The spread between the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50, and between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at different historical percentile levels [17]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net withdrawal of 15722 billion yuan. Next week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire [24]. - **Margin Trading and Short Selling**: As of November 6, the margin trading and short - selling balance of A - shares was 24908.9 billion yuan, an increase of 124.2 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 12.6%, at the 98.5% percentile level in the past ten years [30]. - **Market Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 2605.5 billion yuan compared with the previous week [30]. - **Risk Premium Rate**: As of November 7, the risk premium rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 5.19, at the 47.8% percentile level in the past ten years [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macroeconomic Indicators**: In October, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative, and the manufacturing PMI decreased. Various economic indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed different trends [33][42]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market showed different trends in indicators such as housing prices, transaction volumes, and investment [35]. - **Consumption**: Different consumer goods showed different growth rates in sales. For example, the sales of some categories such as sports and entertainment products and jewelry showed relatively high growth, while the sales of petroleum products and building materials showed negative growth [38]. - **Manufacturing**: The manufacturing industry's PMI and its sub - indicators showed a decline in October, and different manufacturing sub - industries had different performance in production, orders, and prices [39][42]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Infrastructure investment showed different trends in different sub - sectors, with some sectors showing growth and some showing decline [40]. - **Earnings of Major Broad - Based Indices and Industries**: Different broad - based indices and industries had different performance in net profit growth and return on equity [47][48]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance. For example, policies have been introduced to promote service consumption, optimize real estate purchase restrictions, and provide fiscal subsidies for consumer loans [52][53][54]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators**: In October, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index increased, and the unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls showed different trends [62]. - **US Inflation Indicators**: In September, the US PCE and core PCE year - on - year growth rates decreased, and the CPI and core CPI year - on - year growth rates increased slightly [66]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff - related measures, which may have an impact on international trade and the global economy [68].