市场分析 关注民营企业发展。国内方面，国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开民营企业座谈会，围绕"十五五"规划 《纲要》编制，听取关于加快发展服务业的意见建议。参加座谈会的既有工业自动化控制、软件和信息 化服务、工业互联网及综合生产性服务企业，也有餐饮类生活性服务企业。海外方面，美国参议院投票 通过了《持续拨款与延期法案》，为结束政府停摆迈出关键一步。美国众议院将于当地时间周三将就参 议院通过的临时拨款法案进行投票，该法案旨在结束停摆状态。 指数调整。现货市场，A股三大指数高开低走，沪指跌0.39%收于4002.76点，创业板指跌1.4%。行业方 面，板块指数涨跌互现，商贸零售、房地产、钢铁、基础化工行业领涨，通信、电子、计算机、煤炭行 业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成交额不足2万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指涨跌互现，道指回到历史最 高水平，隔夜涨1.18%报47927.96点。 来源：市场资讯 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地缘风险升级，股指有下行风险 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289号 免责声明： 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the A - share market lacks a clear upward trend due to a relative policy window period, with trading volume remaining low and stock indices continuing to fluctuate. The continuous shutdown risk of the US government increases the adjustment pressure on US stocks and impacts the domestic equity market, but the intraday trend may be repaired by domestic liquidity and market sentiment, providing space for short - term stock index operations. In the medium - to - long - term, the market is expected to have further upward potential, but the progress will be gradual. New driving factors such as the further release of overseas liquidity or substantial improvement signals in the domestic fundamentals will be the key to driving the market up. The investment view is to choose the opportunity to go long [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact on Stock Indices** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: In October, affected by tariff policies, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative for the first time since February 2025. Exports to non - ASEAN economies were generally poor, and labor - intensive products and some mechanical and electrical products saw significant declines. The "14th Five - Year Plan" has been implemented, and the domestic policy is in a relatively quiet period, with a negative impact on stock indices [3]. - **Macro Policy**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed seven major economic development goals and twelve major deployments for the next five years, with a neutral - to - positive impact on stock indices [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: The continuous shutdown of the US government has led to a decline in US stocks from their highs, which has a certain impact on China's technology sector, with a neutral - to - negative impact on stock indices [3]. - **Liquidity**: The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased compared with the previous week. The current macro - level is in a policy window period, and the A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with a neutral impact on stock indices [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Choose the opportunity to go long unilaterally, and pay attention to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.8; the Shanghai 50 rose 0.89% to 3038.3; the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.47% to 7541.9 [5]. - **Futures Contract Performance**: The weekly returns of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the corresponding indices were 0.57%, 0.68%, - 0.30%, and 0.37% respectively [6]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, power equipment (5%), steel (4.4%), basic chemicals (3.5%), banks (2.8%), and comprehensive (2.6%) led the gains, while computer (- 2.5%), pharmaceutical biology (- 2.4%), automobile (- 1.2%), food and beverage (- 0.6%), and household appliances (- 0.5%) led the losses [9]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest of Stock Index Futures**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased last week. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 futures decreased by 9.37%, and the open interest decreased by 5.03% [11]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of November 7, different contracts of stock index futures showed different premium or discount rates. For example, the IF2511 contract had an annualized discount of 6.46%, and the IH2511 contract had an annualized premium of 0.78% [13]. - **Cross - Variety Spread Performance**: The spread between the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the Shanghai 50, and between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 was at different historical percentile levels [17]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: This week, the central bank conducted 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 7000 billion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net withdrawal of 15722 billion yuan. Next week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire [24]. - **Margin Trading and Short Selling**: As of November 6, the margin trading and short - selling balance of A - shares was 24908.9 billion yuan, an increase of 124.2 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases to the total market trading volume was 12.6%, at the 98.5% percentile level in the past ten years [30]. - **Market Trading Volume**: The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 2605.5 billion yuan compared with the previous week [30]. - **Risk Premium Rate**: As of November 7, the risk premium rate of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 5.19, at the 47.8% percentile level in the past ten years [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **China's Macroeconomic Indicators**: In October, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative, and the manufacturing PMI decreased. Various economic indicators such as GDP, industrial added value, and fixed - asset investment showed different trends [33][42]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market showed different trends in indicators such as housing prices, transaction volumes, and investment [35]. - **Consumption**: Different consumer goods showed different growth rates in sales. For example, the sales of some categories such as sports and entertainment products and jewelry showed relatively high growth, while the sales of petroleum products and building materials showed negative growth [38]. - **Manufacturing**: The manufacturing industry's PMI and its sub - indicators showed a decline in October, and different manufacturing sub - industries had different performance in production, orders, and prices [39][42]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Infrastructure investment showed different trends in different sub - sectors, with some sectors showing growth and some showing decline [40]. - **Earnings of Major Broad - Based Indices and Industries**: Different broad - based indices and industries had different performance in net profit growth and return on equity [47][48]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - Policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance. For example, policies have been introduced to promote service consumption, optimize real estate purchase restrictions, and provide fiscal subsidies for consumer loans [52][53][54]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Indicators**: In October, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the consumer confidence index increased, and the unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls showed different trends [62]. - **US Inflation Indicators**: In September, the US PCE and core PCE year - on - year growth rates decreased, and the CPI and core CPI year - on - year growth rates increased slightly [66]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff - related measures, which may have an impact on international trade and the global economy [68].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term trend: Oscillatory [1] - Medium - short - term trend: Bullish [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent spot sentiment is strong, especially in the startup and growth sectors, which have continuously reached new highs. Although the overall trend is bullish, short - term changes need attention. The market is rising amidst divergence, with an increased retracement amplitude. After the trading volume exceeded 3 trillion, there is a possibility of the index losing upward momentum after sufficient chip turnover. Derivatives have entered a defensive state, with the discount of stock index futures widening last week, especially for IC and IM, indicating a significant increase in cautious sentiment. The profit - making effect is limited due to significant sector differentiation. Considering factors such as the full release of domestic macro risks and the start of the overseas interest - rate cut cycle, the stock index is expected to continue rising in the medium - to - long term. Currently, the market lacks the conditions for a rapid bull market. [3] - In terms of futures operations, short - term long positions are advised to set stop - loss and take - profit points in a timely manner, and medium - to - long - term long positions should wait for further adjustments before entering. For options operations, the implied volatility of stock index options declined yesterday. Those who have entered double - selling positions are advised to take profits, and those holding until expiration need to be aware of potential margin fluctuations during the contract period. [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Stock Market Information - FTSE Russell announced changes to the quarterly review of the FTSE China A50 Index, including the inclusion of BeiGene - U, New Fiber Optic Network, WuXi AppTec, and Zhongji Innolight, and the removal of China National Nuclear Power, China Unicom, State Grid NARI, and Wanhua Chemical. [4] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 3.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 96.6%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 1.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 46.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 51.6%. [4] Stock Index Disk Review Disk Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed a divergent trend. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.07%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.68%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.34%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.46%. In terms of sectors, precious metals (+1.61%) and electric power grids (+1.59%) led the gains, while aerospace and defense (-6.63%) and diversified finance (-3.66%) lagged. Only more than 800 stocks rose, and 41 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a poor profit - making effect. [4] Technical Tracking - The daily - line chart shows high - level divergence, with signs of weakening upward momentum. In the long - term, the four major stock indices have broken through their 2023 highs, and the weekly and monthly lines maintain an upward trend, with the bullish signal continuing. [4] Capital Flow - The trading volume of A - shares declined yesterday, remaining in the range of 2.3 - 2.4 trillion throughout the day. Although it decreased compared to last week, the trading enthusiasm is still at a historical high, and the short - term chip turnover rate is relatively fast. [4]

Report Overview - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Mid - term, the stock market valuation is high but not at an absolute high, and the stock index still has room to rise, but the upward slope is expected to slow down. Short - term, after the September 3rd expectation is fulfilled, market volatility intensifies, showing a volatile consolidation trend. Holding CSI 300 (IF) contracts can reduce volatility risk, and one can also try to go long on IF and short on IM to resist market corrections [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Market Review - On September 3, the Wind All - A index opened with a volatile decline, closing down 1.19%, with more than 4,500 stocks falling. In terms of index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.68%, 1.07%, 1.34%, and 1.46% respectively. Index futures performed weaker than the spot market. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed down 1.14%, 1.46%, 1.56%, and 1.50% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - External market: The US Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by former President Trump were illegal. Although tariffs can still be legally collected until October 14 and the final cancellation is uncertain, short - term market sentiment will be boosted. The increasing expectation of the Fed to restart interest rate cuts in September is also beneficial to the domestic capital market. - Domestic situation: The economic data in July showed a weakening in both supply and demand, but the expectation of economic fundamental repair is strong. In terms of liquidity, the margin trading balance fell after reaching a record high yesterday, and the subsequent changes in margin trading funds need to be observed [8] 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the performance of domestic main indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of Wind All - A, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, share statistics of major ETF funds, and trading volume statistics of major ETFs. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][15] 3.3 Industry News - On September 2, data released by ISM showed that US manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August due to output decline, indicating that the manufacturing industry remains in trouble. However, the new orders index expanded for the first time since the beginning of this year, and the price index reached the lowest level since February, suggesting that price fluctuations caused by tariffs are subsiding [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oscillation - Medium - short - term: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent spot market sentiment continues to heat up, especially in the ChiNext and growth sectors, which have reached new highs. The market is rising amidst divergence, and there are several short - term changes to note, including potential index weakness after sufficient chip turnover, the derivatives entering a defensive state, and significant sector differentiation. The report believes that factors such as the full release of domestic macro - risks and the start of the overseas interest - rate cut cycle support a long - term bullish view on stock indices, with short - term issues only related to the pace of increase. The market currently lacks the conditions for a fast - bull market. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Logic Summary - The spot market sentiment is warming up, especially in the ChiNext and growth sectors. Short - term changes include: the market rising amidst divergence with increased intraday pull - backs after trading volume exceeds 3 trillion; derivatives entering a defensive state with increased hedging demand; and significant sector differentiation with limited spread of the profit - making effect. The report is bullish on stock indices in the long - term and suggests short - term intraday long positions and waiting for further adjustments for long - term long positions. [3] 3.2 Operation Suggestions - **Futures**: Short - term long positions should set stop - loss and take - profit levels in a timely manner (consider daily closing). Long - term long positions should wait for further adjustments. - **Options**: The implied volatility of stock index options declined slightly yesterday. The absolute level of volatility is high, and the high - level oscillation may last for a long time. Investors with double - selling positions can take appropriate profits, and those holding until maturity need to be aware of potential margin fluctuations. [4] 3.3 Macro Stock Market Information 3.3.1 Policy and Social Data - The "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans" was officially implemented on September 1st, and pilot banks and other institutions began accepting subsidy applications. - From July 1st to August 31st, the cumulative cross - regional population flow in the whole society reached 11.697 billion person - times, a year - on - year increase of 7%. Among them, the volume of self - driving trips on highways reached 8.7 billion person - times, accounting for 70% of the cross - regional population flow. [5] 3.3.2 Market Tracking - In the previous trading day, the A - share market showed resilience and closed in the green. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.16%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.60%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.94%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.84%. The precious metals (+6.67%) and communication equipment (+3.99%) sectors led the gains, while the insurance (-2.32%) and banking (-1.09%) sectors lagged. More than 3,200 stocks rose, and 123 stocks hit the daily limit, indicating a good profit - making effect. [5] 3.3.3 Technical Tracking - Short - term high - level divergence has emerged, and the upward momentum shows signs of weakening. In terms of trends, the four major stock indices have broken through their 2023 highs, and the daily and weekly lines maintain an upward trend, with the bullish signal continuing. [5] 3.3.4 Capital Flow - The trading volume of the A - share market remained flat yesterday, maintaining around 2.7 trillion throughout the day, a decline from last week. However, the trading heat is still at a historical high, and the short - term chip turnover rate is relatively fast. [5]

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 8 月 25 日，万得全 A 跳空高开后震荡上行，午间有所回落，随后再度走高， 收涨 1.80%，超 6 成个股上涨；指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中 证 1000 收盘分别上涨 2.08%、2.09%、1.89%、1.56%，中小盘股表现更优。指数 期货表现弱于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.83%、1.79%、1.46%、 0.87%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算 ...

Group 1: Market Data and Repo Operations - The closing price of DROO1 is 1.31, up 0.07 bp; DR007 is 1.45, up 2.76 bp; GC001 is 1.31, up 1.50 bp; GC007 is 1.46, down 0.50 bp; SHBOR 3M is 1.56, down 0.40 bp; LPR 5 - year is 3.50, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond is 1.37, down 0.40 bp; 5 - year treasury bond is 1.58, up 0.81 bp; 10 - year treasury bond is 1.71, up 0.42 bp; 10 - year US treasury bond is 4.23, down 14.00 bp [4] - The central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with 105.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing on the same day and 495.8 billion yuan maturing in total. The net investment on the day was 49 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1,663.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 495.8 billion, 449.2 billion, 309 billion, 283.2 billion, and 126 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] Group 2: Stock Index Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.39% to 4070.7; SSE 50 rose 0.55% to 2769.4; CSI 500 rose 0.78% to 6261.7; CSI 1000 rose 1.04% to 6739.7. The trading volume of the two stock markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 1,498.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 99.8 billion yuan from last Friday [4] - Most industry sectors closed higher, with aerospace, precious metals, motors, instrumentation, general equipment, jewelry, shipbuilding, auto parts, and plastic products leading the gains, while commercial department stores and insurance sectors leading the losses [4] - After a short - term "profit - taking" trading, the stock index regained its strong trend. The current stock index valuation is still supported. Taking the CSI 300 as an example, although its P/E ratio has returned to the median, the ERP is still at a historical high (74.25% quantile). With Huijin supporting liquidity, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role. The strategy is to go long on the stock index this week [5] Group 3: Futures Market - Ascending and Descending Water Conditions - IF ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is 4.49%, the next - month contract is 0.00%, the current - quarter contract is 0.01%, and the next - quarter contract is 3.06% [6] - IH ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is - 0.97%, the next - month contract is - 0.29% (11.75% annualized), the current - quarter contract is - 0.27% (10.52% annualized), and the next - quarter contract is - 0.23% (9.63% annualized) [6] - IC ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is 16.50%, the current - quarter contract is 11.29%, and the next - quarter contract is 10.92% [6] - IM ascending and descending water conditions: the current - month contract is 13.73%, and the next - month contract is 11.43% [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share investment has a high cost - performance ratio in the medium - to - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000, supported by more science and innovation policies, may bring higher returns due to their high growth potential. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2]. - It is expected that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is beneficial to reducing stock market volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the IF current - month contract down 4.80, the next - month contract down 7.40, the next - quarter contract down 9.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 9.80. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 39,238.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 4,132.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts dropped, with the current - month contract down 16.00, the next - month contract down 18.20, the next - quarter contract down 17.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 18.20. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 19,124.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 1,830.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts declined, with the current - month contract down 7.40, the next - month contract down 12.60, the next - quarter contract down 15.20, and the alternate - quarter contract down 13.00. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 39,182.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 5,099.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with the current - month contract down 28.60, the next - month contract down 29.20, the next - quarter contract down 34.60, and the alternate - quarter contract down 31.60. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 49,078.00, and the positions of the current - month contract decreased by 4,311.00 [1]. 3.2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The index rose 0.03%, with a previous value of 4,019.06, a trading volume of 19.104 billion lots, and a total trading value of 353.525 billion yuan [1]. - **SSE 50 Index**: The index dropped 0.38%, with a previous value of 2,747.23, a trading volume of 4.117 billion lots, and a total trading value of 79.806 billion yuan [1]. - **CSI 500 Index**: The index fell 0.10%, with a previous value of 6,020.86, a trading volume of 18.928 billion lots, and a total trading value of 226.291 billion yuan [1]. - **CSI 1000 Index**: The index decreased 0.30%, with a previous value of 6,442.83, a trading volume of 26.987 billion lots, and a total trading value of 347.378 billion yuan [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: The energy sector dropped 0.55%, the raw materials sector decreased 0.89%, the industrial sector fell 0.47%, the optional consumption sector rose 0.93%, the main consumption sector dropped 0.94%, the medical and health sector decreased 0.05%, the real - estate and finance sector fell 0.79%, the information technology sector rose 1.40%, the telecommunications business sector rose 6.09%, and the public utilities sector decreased 0.69% [1]. 3.3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts and CSI 300**: The basis of the IF current - month contract to the CSI 300 was - 9.46, the next - month contract was - 25.86, the next - quarter contract was - 38.46, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 70.46 [1]. - **IH Contracts and SSE 50**: The basis of the IH current - month contract to the SSE 50 was - 7.03, the next - month contract was - 12.23, the next - quarter contract was - 13.03, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 12.03 [1]. - **IC Contracts and CSI 500**: The basis of the IC current - month contract to the CSI 500 was - 10.56, the next - month contract was - 69.76, the next - quarter contract was - 125.36, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 248.36 [1]. - **IM Contracts and CSI 1000**: The basis of the IM current - month contract to the CSI 1000 was - 20.83, the next - month contract was - 90.03, the next - quarter contract was - 165.43, and the alternate - quarter contract was - 343.83 [1]. 3.4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.56%, the Small and Medium - Cap Index rose 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.73% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index rose 1.60%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.55%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.40%, and the DAX Index dropped 0.42% [1]. 3.5. Macroeconomic Information - China's GDP in the first half of the year was 66.05 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. The first - quarter GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the second - quarter GDP increased by 5.2%. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.8% [2]. - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14th to 15th. China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage, and urban development is shifting from large - scale incremental expansion to stock quality improvement and efficiency enhancement [2]. - The housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow overall. There were 14 cities with a month - on - month increase in new - home prices, and only Xining had a month - on - month increase in second - hand home prices [2]. - China adjusted the catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted from export, deleting 3 technology items, adding 1, and modifying 1. The restricted export of battery cathode material preparation technology was newly added [2]. 3.6. Industry Information - The financial regulatory authority strengthened the supervision of local asset management companies, clarifying prohibited business behaviors [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to formulate mandatory national standards for mobile power sources to set stricter technical standards [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched a special campaign to rectify prominent problems in live - streaming e - commerce [2]. - The 11th batch of national drug centralized procurement has been launched, with 55 varieties included in the procurement volume reporting scope, and new drugs are not included [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market declined due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, which increased global risk - aversion sentiment. European and American stock indices mostly fell, and A - share sentiment cooled down. This week, the stock index is still at a relatively over - valued position within the oscillation range and is expected to continue to bottom out. The impact of short - term foreign capital sentiment fluctuations on A - shares is limited, and there are no clear domestic trading events in the short term. The market will continue the decline trend under the characteristics of shrinking volume and low volatility, and it is recommended that investors mainly wait and see. The next breakthrough window may appear in early July, with attention paid to the new round of tariff disturbances caused by the expiration of Trump's 90 - day exemption policy and possible hedging policies from the domestic Politburo meeting. In the medium - to - long - term, the current discounts of IC and IM have reached the highest level in the past two years. The annualized discount rate of the current - quarter IC contract is 11 - 12%, and that of the IM contract is 15 - 16%. These two types of contracts can bring more substantial excess returns in the allocation level compared to index products such as ETFs, and it is still valuable and potential for long - term index investment investors to hold long positions [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, with the theme of "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation and High - quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial management department leaders will give speeches and release major financial policies. US President Trump's pressure on Iran makes the market speculate that the US may directly participate in Israel's attack on Iran [5] 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, A - shares fluctuated narrowly. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.04%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.10%. The shipping (+2.44%) and energy equipment (+2.01%) sectors led the gains, while the office supplies (-3.45%) and soft drink (-2.80%) sectors lagged. More than 2,200 stocks rose, and 61 stocks hit the daily limit, with a poor profit - making effect [5] - **Technical Tracking**: After the previous oversold rebound, the stock indices generally approached the upper edge of the gap, with stronger pressure at the daily and weekly levels, and the monthly - line trend is still oscillating [5] - **Fund Flow**: Recently, the trading volume of A - shares has been hovering at a low level, staying at the 1.2 - trillion - yuan level yesterday. The short - term market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient upward momentum [5] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - The decline in the stock index market last week was due to geopolitical conflicts. This week, the stock index is over - valued and may continue to decline. The impact of foreign capital is limited, and there are no clear trading events. The market will decline with shrinking volume and low volatility. The next breakthrough may be in early July. In the long - term, IC and IM contracts have high allocation value [3] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, with the lower support level seen at the position on April 9th. For monthly operations, maintain the idea of band trading [4] - **Option Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options continues to flatten, with the weekly IV of the current - month at - the - money CSI 300 option remaining at 12 - 13%. Given the low - level oscillation of volatility, the cost of buying options during the waiting - for - breakthrough stage is expected to be high, and the premium recovered from selling options is limited. It is recommended to wait for the second wave of rising volatility before engaging in double - selling operations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is slightly bullish. Although there are some factors restricting the upward movement of the stock index, the bottom - support from policies is strong, and the downward risk in the short term is low[1][4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is slightly bullish, with an overall view of range - bound. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support[1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is slightly bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound. Yesterday, each stock index rebounded slightly. The total stock market turnover was 1286.6 billion yuan, a reduction of 164.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The result of Sino - US economic and trade consultations is highly uncertain, and the market sentiment is mainly one of waiting and watching. Overseas uncertainties and weak domestic demand suppress the upward momentum of the stock index. However, the weakening of macro - economic indicators increases the expectation of policy support, and the bottom - support of the market is sufficient. The marginal effect of the negative impact of the tariff war is weak, and the short - term downward risk of the market is low[4]