Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the digestion of old - crop corn and tightened grain imports, the corn supply will be tight in the third quarter. However, wheat prices will cap the upside of corn prices, and potential policy - grain auctions are a negative factor. After the production situation becomes clear in September and new - crop corn is listed in October, the far - month contracts C2511 and C2601 may have a slight downward trend, but it's hard to see a trending market like last year [2][136]. - The third - quarter corn futures contracts will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the fourth - quarter contracts may decline slightly [2][136][137]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - **CBOT Corn Contracts**: In 2025, from January to February, affected by Brazil's heavy rainfall, Argentina's drought, and strong US corn exports, the CBOT corn futures price rose from 451 cents/bushel on January 3rd to 504.75 cents/bushel on February 21st. Due to tariff policy uncertainties, expected supply increases, and slower export sales, the price dropped to 452.25 cents/bushel at the end of February and early March and then oscillated between 450 - 470 cents/bushel. In April, with the adjustment of the US corn supply - demand balance, the price shifted to the 460 - 490 cents/bushel range. Since May, the price has been on a weakening trend, closing at 411.25 cents/bushel on June 27th. The net long positions of managed funds decreased from 337,454 hands on February 25th to - 164,020 hands on June 10th [8][10]. - **Domestic Corn Futures Market**: From December 2024 to April 2025, supported by the suspension of imported corn auctions and CGSGB purchases, the market was in a state of "strong expectation, weak reality". After April, with the end of grassroots grain sales and low imports, the supply pressure eased, and the market shifted to "consistent reality and expectation". The term structure changed from "near - weak, mid - strong, far - weak" to "near - strong, far - weak". The C2509 - C2511 contract spread oscillated within 50 - 90 yuan/ton. Corn spot prices rose steadily, with the national average price increasing by 15.1% to 2432.35 yuan/ton as of June 30th [11][12][14]. 2. Supply - **Import of Corn and Substitute Grains**: Since the second half of last year, China's corn imports have significantly decreased. In May 2025, corn imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 81.9%. The import of substitute grains also decreased, with a 57.3% year - on - year decrease in May 2025. Due to the Sino - US trade conflict, US corn imports are difficult to recover in the short term [38][39]. - **Wheat Impact**: The 2025 wheat harvest was completed in mid - June. With the launch of the minimum purchase price policy in Henan, Anhui, and Hebei, wheat prices were supported. Currently, the wheat - corn price difference is low, and the proportion and scope of wheat feed substitution are expanding, with an annual feed consumption of about 33 - 35 million tons [43][44][45]. - **Imported Corn Auction**: On July 1, 2025, CGSGB launched its first imported corn directional invitation auction, with a scale of 189,000 tons. The auction was well - received, with a transaction volume of 183,000 tons and an average premium of 103 yuan/ton. A subsequent auction on July 4th with a larger scale may have a certain impact on market sentiment [52][53]. 3. Demand - **Feed Sales**: In May 2025, the national industrial feed output was 27.7 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month due to the narrowing wheat - corn price difference. From January to May, the monthly sales of pig feed increased year - on - year, and the growth is expected to continue [54][55]. - **Corn Deep - processing Enterprises**: In the first half of 2025, affected by losses, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises was low, and the corn consumption from January to June was 30.5783 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.84% [69]. - **CGSGB Corn Transactions**: Since late March, CGSGB's corn purchases have basically stagnated, and it has maintained a net rotation - out state. From September last year to now, the net purchase volume is 1.91 million tons [71]. 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Since April 2025, port corn inventories have been decreasing and are now in the normal range. As of June 27th, the inventory in the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.73% [76]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: Due to the increasing cost - effectiveness of wheat, the corn inventory of feed enterprises has started to decline. As of June 27th, the available days of corn inventory were 32.59 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.81% [79]. - **Deep - processing Enterprise Inventory**: The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has remained stable. As of June 27th, the inventory was 4.567 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [81]. 5. Corn Starch - **Price Trend**: In the first half of 2025, the price of the Dalian corn starch futures main contract oscillated strongly, with a 11.69% increase as of June 30th. The basis oscillated between 0 - 220 yuan/ton. The corn starch - corn futures 09 - contract spread and the spot spread both decreased [86]. - **Supply and Demand**: The losses of corn starch enterprises have narrowed, production has stabilized, demand has remained stable but decreased year - on - year, and inventory has started to decline since June. It is expected that the price of corn starch will continue to follow the trend of corn in the second half of 2025 [87].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current corn market is in the window period between old and new grains. With the continuous consumption of surplus grains and the decline in imports, a pattern of tight supply in the short - term has emerged. - Imported corn auctions have supplemented the market, and the narrowing price difference between wheat and corn has enhanced the substitution effect in the feed field, suppressing the upward momentum of corn prices. - Downstream procurement remains cautious. Livestock enterprises, restricted by low profits, mostly replenish stocks as needed, while deep - processing enterprises reduce their operating rates due to losses. Overall, consumption has limited ability to boost prices. - From a technical perspective, the main corn futures contract is in an upward channel but is under pressure from the upper edge of the channel and has been testing support levels downward. Without a trend - driving force in supply and demand, the futures price is expected to gradually decline to the key integer level of 2,300 yuan/ton, which may trigger a technical rebound at that time [5][39]. 3. Summary by Directory Corn Market Structure - As of the end of June, the corn index price first rose and then fell. After reaching a low of 2,300 yuan/ton at the end of May, it rebounded, tested the previous high of 2,380 yuan/ton but failed to break through, and then declined again to test the support at 2,300 yuan/ton. It is expected to form a double - top structure. - The corn market is in the window period between old and new grains. The decreasing inventory in domestic main producing areas supports traders' reluctance to sell, but affected by the wheat substitution effect and policy - grain auctions, the price is oscillating downward. - Downstream procurement is cautious, resulting in weak consumption. Livestock enterprises purchase as needed due to low profits, and corn deep - processing enterprises reduce their operating rates due to losses. The main corn futures contract is in an upward channel, and in the short - term, it is retesting the support around 2,330 yuan/ton [7]. - The overall term - structure shows that the September contract is at a discount to the January contract, and the January contract is at a discount to the May contract [8]. Market行情Analysis Supply Side - Global corn supply and demand tightened according to the June USDA report. The old - crop exports were increased by 50 million bushels, and the ending stocks were correspondingly reduced. For the new - crop, the ending stocks were also reduced by 50 million bushels. The new - crop ending stocks were lower than expected, and the report was slightly bullish. The expected 2025/2026 US corn production is 15.82 billion bushels, with a planted area of 95.3 million acres and a yield of 181 bushels per acre, remaining unchanged from May. The expected ending stocks are 1.75 billion bushels, lower than the previous forecast and the Reuters average. Globally, the 2025/2026 production is increased to 1.266 billion tons, and the ending stocks are 275.236 million tons, which is also bullish [11]. - Tariff policies have tightened imports, which is beneficial to the confidence of the domestic corn market. Although the overall import of agricultural products from the US is expected to decline, China has diversified its grain import sources since 2018. The proportion of US - imported corn and wheat in China's total imports is less than 20%, so the impact of tariffs is relatively limited, but the impact on US - imported sorghum, which accounts for over 50%, may be relatively large. In 2025, China's corn imports have dropped significantly. From January to May, the cumulative import was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 93%. Importing US corn is not cost - effective [15][16]. - Corn is in a policy - sensitive period, and the expectation of imported corn auctions has been fulfilled. On July 1, imported corn was auctioned in Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and other regions, with a transaction rate of 97%. On July 4, the second auction was held nationwide through public bidding, with a larger scale. The transaction rate was 85.95%. The imported corn supply has supplemented the market, but the future frequency, scale, and price of auctions will affect the market [21]. - The narrowing price difference between wheat and corn may lead to a decline in corn prices. Corn is in a supply vacuum period, and new wheat prices are at 1.21 - 1.23 yuan per catty. The wheat - corn price difference in Henan is - 40 yuan/ton and in Hebei is - 5 yuan/ton. Wheat is more cost - effective, so many enterprises are using wheat to replace corn in the feed field [22]. Demand Side - The reduction of pig production capacity is slow. As of May 2025, the number of breeding sows was 40.42 million, 3.6% higher than the normal level. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was 119.72 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 26.26 yuan per head. The pig market may face double pressure from cost and supply. Although there is a rigid demand for feed, there is little room for growth [23]. - Deep - processing enterprises are in a loss situation, which limits the demand for corn. Due to weak macroeconomic growth and poor downstream demand, the profit of deep - processing enterprises is not good. As of July 5, the operating rate of starch enterprises was 51.57%, the corn processing volume was 789,000 tons, and the processing profit was - 62.97 yuan per ton. Enterprises are cautious in purchasing [37]. Market Outlook The current situation of the corn market is as described in the core viewpoints, with a tight supply pattern in the short - term, supplemented by imported corn auctions, and a limited ability of consumption to boost prices. The futures price is expected to decline to 2,300 yuan/ton and may rebound technically [39].