2月3日，在经历了一个波动巨大的周末后，加密货币市场正试图在当前区间内寻找支撑。比特币在从 85000 美元快速跌落至 75000 美元下方后，目前正努力在 75000 美元至 80000 美元之间构筑防御底线。 FXGT表示，这一企稳尝试正面临一个严峻的阻碍，即美元指数（DXY）正以九个月来最强劲的姿态重 新苏醒，这种"跷跷板效应"往往会对风险资产的修复空间形成明显压制。 美元指数的这一轮爆发性增长已引起广泛关注。事实数据表示，DXY 在短短两个交易日内大幅拉升 1.5% 至 97.60，创下去年年中以来最亮眼的短期表现。这种走势的背后，是市场对美联储未来政策路径 的重新定价。由于凯文·沃什被提名为新任美联储主席，其过往深刻的"政策鹰派"标签让市场开始怀疑 此前过于激进的降息预期。FXGT认为，当针对货币贬值的对冲交易开始撤退，美元资产的吸引力自然 反弹，从而显著增加了持有比特币等非美元本位资产的机会成本。 2月3日，在经历了一个波动巨大的周末后，加密货币市场正试图在当前区间内寻找支撑。比特币在从 85000 美元快速跌落至 75000 美元下方后，目前正努力在 75000 美元至 80000 美元之间构筑 ...

智通财经APP获悉，就在凯文·沃什被特朗普提名为美联储主席的消息引发美元自 5 月以来最大涨幅的 几天前，资产管理公司加大了对美元的看跌仓位。据美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据，截至1月 27日当周，基金经理增持美元空头头寸83亿美元，创下自2025年4月以来的最大增幅。与此同时，对冲 基金同期减持美元净多头头寸51亿美元，为自2024年7月以来最大降幅。 上周五，美元应声上涨，此前有消息称，美国总统特朗普已选定沃什接任美联储主席一职，接替将于5 月卸任的现任主席鲍威尔。沃什被一些人视为政策鹰派。此外，贵金属价格下跌也提振了美元。 Pepperstone Group Ltd.高级研究策略师Michael Brown表示："考虑到美元的反弹，到本周结束时，美元 空头头寸的状况可能会相当糟糕。尽管政策不确定性将持续存在，而且特朗普政府可能寻求进一步削弱 美元，但仍有充分的理由继续做空美元。" 分析指出，美元反弹的部分原因似乎在于市场预期沃什的立场会比一些人此前担心的美联储下一任主席 更加鹰派。 随着二月份交易的开始，许多策略师仍然坚持认为美元将面临更大的压力。高盛、宏利投资管理公司和 Eurizon SL ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump is increasingly dissatisfied with the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rate cuts, prompting him to consider announcing his choice for the next Fed chair earlier than expected [1][2]. Group 1: Potential Candidates - Trump is considering several candidates for the next Fed chair, including former Fed governor Kevin Walsh, National Economic Council director Hassett, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, former World Bank president Malpass, and current Fed governor Waller [1][2][6]. - Walsh is viewed as a leading contender, having previously discussed the position with Trump, while Hassett has expressed disinterest in the role [3][5]. - Mnuchin's ability to navigate chaotic tariff policies has made him popular on Wall Street, and he has not ruled out the idea of becoming Fed chair [5][6]. Group 2: Implications of Early Announcement - Announcing a new Fed chair earlier than the usual transition period could allow the nominee to influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [2][7]. - However, this approach carries risks, as the incoming chair may face challenges in publicly criticizing future Fed colleagues and could be perceived as a sycophant by market participants [7][8]. Group 3: Current Fed Chair's Position - Current Fed chair Powell has reiterated that political considerations will not influence Fed decisions and emphasized a cautious approach to potential rate cuts [2][10]. - Powell has not indicated whether he will leave the Fed board after his term ends, focusing instead on maintaining economic strength and controlling inflation [10].