Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the retail sector amidst a choppy de-grossing market environment, suggesting that retail remains a dominant force despite the volatility [1][3]. Core Insights - Retail trading activity has surged, with retail investors accounting for over 16% of the total volume in S&P 500 stocks, marking a five-year high [7][9]. - The market is increasingly narrative-driven, with traders seeking compelling stories and catalysts to guide their investments [8][12]. - The volume of stocks executed by off-exchange venues, such as those serving retail platforms like Robinhood, is projected to reach 50% of total trading volume for the first time this year [9][12]. - Individual amateur investors are gravitating towards lightly regulated markets, with OTC Markets seeing an average monthly trading volume of approximately $59 billion, nearing the peak levels observed during the meme-stock frenzy [12][9]. - The report highlights a divergence in risk appetite, with retail investors remaining risk-seeking while institutional investors have adopted a more cautious stance [13][15]. Summary by Sections Trading Activity - On a recent trading day, 25.2 billion shares were traded across US equity exchanges, significantly above the year-to-date average of 17.2 billion shares [3][4]. - The top 10 stocks by trading volume accounted for approximately 8 billion shares, or 32% of the total market volume, with a majority being penny stocks favored by retail investors [4][7]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by a high level of gross leverage and constrained net positions, indicating a cautious approach among institutional investors [22][23]. - The report notes that the unprofitable tech sector is experiencing a sharp correction, with some stocks, like Beyond Meat, showing significant reversals [28][29]. Earnings and Economic Indicators - Overall earnings remain supportive, but market reactions to earnings reports are becoming increasingly critical, as investors appear to be taking profits during the earnings season [29][31]. - The bond market has stabilized despite ongoing fiscal excess, with both nominal and real yields compressing at the long end, which is seen as bullish for equity multiples [33][34].

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold closed down by $47.28, a decline of 1.38%, ending at $3,384.99 [1] - Currently, gold is fluctuating around $3,380 during the European market session [1] - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices will drop below $3,000 in the coming quarters, potentially falling to $2,500-$2,700 by the second half of 2026, indicating the end of the current gold bull market [16][17] Group 2: US-UK Trade Agreement - The US and UK have reached a trade agreement that includes a quota of 100,000 vehicles per year for UK car imports, with a 10% tariff [4] - The UK has committed to meeting US requirements for the supply chain security of steel and aluminum products [4] - The EU is prepared to conditionally accept a 10% uniform tariff in trade negotiations with the US, but does not view it as a permanent solution [5] Group 3: US Stock Market Dynamics - US stock indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.94%, Nasdaq up 1.52%, and Dow Jones up 0.75% [2] - Retail investors are actively buying, reminiscent of the "retail battle against Wall Street" in 2023, with significant trading activity in stocks priced under $1 [8] - Hedge funds are reportedly forced to buy back stocks, leading to a surge in stock prices, with Goldman Sachs noting a 10% increase in net purchases by hedge funds [8] Group 4: Middle East Tensions - Israel has launched airstrikes on Tehran, targeting the Iranian state television building, resulting in casualties [9] - The Israeli military claims to have killed a high-ranking Iranian military commander, escalating tensions in the region [9] - A joint statement from 21 Arab and Islamic countries condemns Israel's actions and calls for a cessation of hostilities [13][14] Group 5: US-Russia Relations - President Trump announced a postponement of sanctions against Russia to facilitate negotiations [15] - The Russian Foreign Ministry indicated that a new round of bilateral talks aimed at normalizing diplomatic activities has been canceled [15]