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Yuyue· 2025-12-19 06:38
如果不看那些 drama,从最大化 ROI 的角度来看,最近那场 AI 和人类对抗的比赛,反而让 @brevis_zk 获得了一个非常直观的技术场景验证 😂Aster 的这类比赛,本质上就是一个对 “可验证计算、数据可信性和隐私保护” 要求极高的场景,而 Brevis 他们可能都没出钱就获得了这场营销里最大的 use case。和 @opinionlabsxyz 的合作也是同理,通过用 Brevis 验证提高了这个 BNBChain 第一预测市场的去中心化程度和可信度,目前看来在使用场景上是闭环的BNBChain 以前的战略方向有一项是 zkBNB,是币安生态的一环构成。现在来看,应该是 Brevis 帮助补全了 BNBChain 生态,看了眼他们生态集成的情况,基本包圆了。其中包括 PancakeSwap、THENA、Opinion 等等,BNBChain 的 DeFi 和 dAPP 家族其他方面,还有 Uniswap 的集成等等。近期不少人都在期待他们的 TGE,等待参与机会看看吧。类似的逻辑其实之前看到过不少例子,帮助币安补全生态版图的,项目大部分都有比较长的寿命,获得比较长期的支持,熊市能保证存活是第 ...
债市专题研究:探析非农数据大幅下修的底层逻辑
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-06 04:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downward revision of non - farm data from May to June may accelerate the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. As of now, the probability of a "compensatory" rate cut by the Fed in September is limited, and the focus is on trading rate cuts rather than recession. The non - farm data may impact the data - based investment research and analysis system, and the value of gold may be further highlighted [1]. - The Fed's action may be too late. After the release of non - farm data, the market's expectation of a 25BP rate cut by the Fed in September soared from 37.66% to 80.31%, and it fully priced in at least one 25BP rate cut by the Fed before October [2]. - Based on current data, it may not be sufficient to drive the Fed to conduct a "compensatory" rate cut. If the labor market deteriorates further in August and inflation rebounds moderately or declines again, the Fed may make a more accommodative monetary policy decision [3]. - The data - based investment research and analysis system will be continuously impacted. In the short term, ADP employment data may serve as a substitute for non - farm data. In the long term, the issue of data credibility may ferment, affecting the pricing of financial assets, while the value of gold may be further emphasized [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Analyzing the Underlying Logic of the Significant Downward Revision of Non - farm Data - **July Non - farm Data**: In July, the US added 73,000 non - farm jobs, lower than market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a marginal cooling of the labor market but still with some resilience [11]. - **Downward Revision of May - June Non - farm Data**: The total non - farm employment in May and June was revised down by 258,000. The adjustment rates in May and June reached 86.33% and 90.48% respectively, the largest since 2021. Both the private and government sectors showed a general decline [14][15]. - **Impact on the Fed's Decision - making**: From May to July, the average monthly increase in non - farm employment was only about 35,000. If the Fed had seen the revised data before the meeting, more officials might have supported a rate cut in July. After the data release, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased significantly [21]. - **"Compensatory" Rate Cut**: The current situation is similar to that in the third quarter of 2024 in that the weakening labor market boosts rate - cut expectations. However, the current inflation environment may restrict the Fed's rate - cut decision. As of now, it may not be enough to trigger a "compensatory" rate cut, but there is a potential path [25][27]. - **Trading Focus**: After the non - farm data release, the stock market adjusted significantly. The US economy shows a marginal weakening of growth momentum rather than an impending recession [31][35]. - **Impact on the Investment Research System**: In the short term, ADP employment data may gain more attention. In the long term, the credibility of non - farm data may be questioned, adding uncertainty to the financial market, while the value of gold may increase [35][37].