小摩认为目前的情况大致仍接近这一水平，不包括因政府雇员被临时休假而带来的失业率短期上升。最 突出的数据是ADP的私营部门就业估算。10月份ADP就业人数反弹至增加4.2万人，而9月份为减少2.9万 人，8月份为减少3000人。 智通财经APP获悉，2025年11月的第一个星期五，美国劳工统计局因政府停摆再次缺席"非农日"。没有 官方就业报告，小摩整理了来自其他就业数据的信号，总体来看，自9月以来变化不大。截至8月，私营 部门就业人数的三个月平均增长为2.9万人，失业率为4.32%。 虽然ADP在预测非农月度就业变化方面可能存在较大偏差，但其样本量庞大，且今年累计的就业增长与 非农数据总体吻合。未来，ADP将在美东时间每周二上午发布一个四周平均的就业变化数据。 小摩表示，考虑到就业数据通常存在波动性，10月份的读数也可以被视为"稳定"。但由于此前四个月中 有三个月为负值，任何正增长都对"就业市场正在走弱"的说法构成反驳。 该行指出，持续申请失业救济金的人数则更令人担忧。尽管最近几周的轻微上升可能是季节性因素残 留，但其同比增长速度并未放缓，通常保持在4%以上，这表明失业率正在逐步上升。 来自州政府级的基础数据显 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices closed down 0.64% at $4098.35, with a significant intraday fluctuation of $157 [1] - Currently, gold is trading in a narrow range around $4118 [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.71% at 46590.41 points, S&P 500 down 0.53% at 6699.40 points, and Nasdaq down 0.93% at 22740.40 points [2] Group 3: U.S. National Debt - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, as reported by the U.S. Treasury [3] - This increase occurred just over two months after the debt reached $37 trillion in mid-August [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Developments - ADP Research has ceased providing employment data to the Federal Reserve, impacting the Fed's decision-making amid a government shutdown [5] - The Federal Reserve is considering a plan to significantly relax capital requirements for large banks, potentially increasing their capital by 3% to 7% [6] - The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [6] Group 5: U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative are set to meet with Chinese officials, amid concerns over potential export restrictions on U.S. software products to China [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the market is experiencing a cooling period after a surge in enthusiasm for certain sectors since early August [10] Group 6: International Sanctions - The U.S. has announced sanctions against two major Russian oil companies, coinciding with President Trump's cancellation of a meeting with President Putin [12][13] - The EU has also agreed on a new round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downward revision of non - farm data from May to June may accelerate the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. As of now, the probability of a "compensatory" rate cut by the Fed in September is limited, and the focus is on trading rate cuts rather than recession. The non - farm data may impact the data - based investment research and analysis system, and the value of gold may be further highlighted [1]. - The Fed's action may be too late. After the release of non - farm data, the market's expectation of a 25BP rate cut by the Fed in September soared from 37.66% to 80.31%, and it fully priced in at least one 25BP rate cut by the Fed before October [2]. - Based on current data, it may not be sufficient to drive the Fed to conduct a "compensatory" rate cut. If the labor market deteriorates further in August and inflation rebounds moderately or declines again, the Fed may make a more accommodative monetary policy decision [3]. - The data - based investment research and analysis system will be continuously impacted. In the short term, ADP employment data may serve as a substitute for non - farm data. In the long term, the issue of data credibility may ferment, affecting the pricing of financial assets, while the value of gold may be further emphasized [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Analyzing the Underlying Logic of the Significant Downward Revision of Non - farm Data - **July Non - farm Data**: In July, the US added 73,000 non - farm jobs, lower than market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a marginal cooling of the labor market but still with some resilience [11]. - **Downward Revision of May - June Non - farm Data**: The total non - farm employment in May and June was revised down by 258,000. The adjustment rates in May and June reached 86.33% and 90.48% respectively, the largest since 2021. Both the private and government sectors showed a general decline [14][15]. - **Impact on the Fed's Decision - making**: From May to July, the average monthly increase in non - farm employment was only about 35,000. If the Fed had seen the revised data before the meeting, more officials might have supported a rate cut in July. After the data release, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased significantly [21]. - **"Compensatory" Rate Cut**: The current situation is similar to that in the third quarter of 2024 in that the weakening labor market boosts rate - cut expectations. However, the current inflation environment may restrict the Fed's rate - cut decision. As of now, it may not be enough to trigger a "compensatory" rate cut, but there is a potential path [25][27]. - **Trading Focus**: After the non - farm data release, the stock market adjusted significantly. The US economy shows a marginal weakening of growth momentum rather than an impending recession [31][35]. - **Impact on the Investment Research System**: In the short term, ADP employment data may gain more attention. In the long term, the credibility of non - farm data may be questioned, adding uncertainty to the financial market, while the value of gold may increase [35][37].