Macro Economic Group - The US November Services PMI is reported at 52.4%, slightly below the expected 52% and down from October's 52.6%. New orders decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 52.9%, while the price index fell by 4.6 percentage points to 65.4%. The employment index is at 48.9%, indicating contraction for the sixth consecutive month [3][4] - The ADP employment data for November shows a decrease of 31,000 jobs, contrary to the expected increase of 5,000 jobs. The previous month's data was revised from an increase of 42,000 to 47,000. This report is significant as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - LME copper reached a historical high of $11,500 per ton, with a daily increase of over 3.2%. LME three-month tin rose by 3.45% to $40,385 per ton. The prices of rare earths have rebounded over 5% in the past month, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices rising to the range of 595,000-598,000 yuan per ton. The price of tungsten APT has also surpassed 510,000 yuan per ton, with a more than 100% increase in the second half of the year [7] - The overall trend indicates a sustained increase in non-ferrous metal prices, driven by a long-term weakening of the dollar and the competitive pricing of Chinese industrial products in global markets, particularly in developing countries [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Recent research indicates a significant supply-demand mismatch for core solvents EC and additive VC, leading to price elasticity. The market is dominated by two companies, which control about 80% of the EC market share, and both have no plans for capacity expansion. The price of EC has risen from 4,300 yuan per ton to 6,200 yuan per ton [10] - The demand for VC has surged, pushing its price above 230,000 yuan per ton, which further constricts the supply of battery-grade EC, exacerbating the shortage. The lack of new capacity and the supply squeeze suggest that EC prices are likely to continue rising [10] Consumer Group - In the duty-free sector, sales growth in Hainan's offshore duty-free market reached double digits in October and November. New duty-free stores have opened in key cities like Xi'an and Changsha, supported by policies that expand eligible consumer groups and product categories [12] - High-end consumption is recovering, with notable performance from leading retailers like Hangzhou Tower and Henglong, which have seen significant revenue growth and improved profitability. This trend is reflected in the high demand for luxury goods and the robust performance of Macau's gaming sector [12]

小摩认为目前的情况大致仍接近这一水平，不包括因政府雇员被临时休假而带来的失业率短期上升。最 突出的数据是ADP的私营部门就业估算。10月份ADP就业人数反弹至增加4.2万人，而9月份为减少2.9万 人，8月份为减少3000人。 智通财经APP获悉，2025年11月的第一个星期五，美国劳工统计局因政府停摆再次缺席"非农日"。没有 官方就业报告，小摩整理了来自其他就业数据的信号，总体来看，自9月以来变化不大。截至8月，私营 部门就业人数的三个月平均增长为2.9万人，失业率为4.32%。 虽然ADP在预测非农月度就业变化方面可能存在较大偏差，但其样本量庞大，且今年累计的就业增长与 非农数据总体吻合。未来，ADP将在美东时间每周二上午发布一个四周平均的就业变化数据。 小摩表示，考虑到就业数据通常存在波动性，10月份的读数也可以被视为"稳定"。但由于此前四个月中 有三个月为负值，任何正增长都对"就业市场正在走弱"的说法构成反驳。 该行指出，持续申请失业救济金的人数则更令人担忧。尽管最近几周的轻微上升可能是季节性因素残 留，但其同比增长速度并未放缓，通常保持在4%以上，这表明失业率正在逐步上升。 来自州政府级的基础数据显 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices closed down 0.64% at $4098.35, with a significant intraday fluctuation of $157 [1] - Currently, gold is trading in a narrow range around $4118 [1] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Major U.S. indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.71% at 46590.41 points, S&P 500 down 0.53% at 6699.40 points, and Nasdaq down 0.93% at 22740.40 points [2] Group 3: U.S. National Debt - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, as reported by the U.S. Treasury [3] - This increase occurred just over two months after the debt reached $37 trillion in mid-August [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Developments - ADP Research has ceased providing employment data to the Federal Reserve, impacting the Fed's decision-making amid a government shutdown [5] - The Federal Reserve is considering a plan to significantly relax capital requirements for large banks, potentially increasing their capital by 3% to 7% [6] - The Fed's next meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, with a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [6] Group 5: U.S.-China Trade Relations - U.S. Treasury Secretary and Trade Representative are set to meet with Chinese officials, amid concerns over potential export restrictions on U.S. software products to China [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the market is experiencing a cooling period after a surge in enthusiasm for certain sectors since early August [10] Group 6: International Sanctions - The U.S. has announced sanctions against two major Russian oil companies, coinciding with President Trump's cancellation of a meeting with President Putin [12][13] - The EU has also agreed on a new round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas [14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downward revision of non - farm data from May to June may accelerate the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. As of now, the probability of a "compensatory" rate cut by the Fed in September is limited, and the focus is on trading rate cuts rather than recession. The non - farm data may impact the data - based investment research and analysis system, and the value of gold may be further highlighted [1]. - The Fed's action may be too late. After the release of non - farm data, the market's expectation of a 25BP rate cut by the Fed in September soared from 37.66% to 80.31%, and it fully priced in at least one 25BP rate cut by the Fed before October [2]. - Based on current data, it may not be sufficient to drive the Fed to conduct a "compensatory" rate cut. If the labor market deteriorates further in August and inflation rebounds moderately or declines again, the Fed may make a more accommodative monetary policy decision [3]. - The data - based investment research and analysis system will be continuously impacted. In the short term, ADP employment data may serve as a substitute for non - farm data. In the long term, the issue of data credibility may ferment, affecting the pricing of financial assets, while the value of gold may be further emphasized [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Analyzing the Underlying Logic of the Significant Downward Revision of Non - farm Data - **July Non - farm Data**: In July, the US added 73,000 non - farm jobs, lower than market expectations. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, indicating a marginal cooling of the labor market but still with some resilience [11]. - **Downward Revision of May - June Non - farm Data**: The total non - farm employment in May and June was revised down by 258,000. The adjustment rates in May and June reached 86.33% and 90.48% respectively, the largest since 2021. Both the private and government sectors showed a general decline [14][15]. - **Impact on the Fed's Decision - making**: From May to July, the average monthly increase in non - farm employment was only about 35,000. If the Fed had seen the revised data before the meeting, more officials might have supported a rate cut in July. After the data release, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased significantly [21]. - **"Compensatory" Rate Cut**: The current situation is similar to that in the third quarter of 2024 in that the weakening labor market boosts rate - cut expectations. However, the current inflation environment may restrict the Fed's rate - cut decision. As of now, it may not be enough to trigger a "compensatory" rate cut, but there is a potential path [25][27]. - **Trading Focus**: After the non - farm data release, the stock market adjusted significantly. The US economy shows a marginal weakening of growth momentum rather than an impending recession [31][35]. - **Impact on the Investment Research System**: In the short term, ADP employment data may gain more attention. In the long term, the credibility of non - farm data may be questioned, adding uncertainty to the financial market, while the value of gold may increase [35][37].