当前全球市场正面临一场罕见的 "数据战争"：一方面就业市场显著降温，另一方面通胀却顽固高企。 这种经济数据的罕见背离，正将美联储主席鲍威尔推向货币政策抉择的悬崖边缘。与此同时，中东和俄 乌地缘政治紧张局势再度升级，为全球市场增添了更多不确定性。投资者正在见证一场宏观逻辑的激烈 碰撞。 一、数据背离：非农疲软 VS 通胀顽固 最新经济数据呈现出令人困惑的图景： 就业市场明显降温 最新非农就业数据显示，新增就业人数大幅放缓，失业率升至 4.1%（2022 年 1 月以来最高） 职位空缺数持续下降，表明劳动力市场正在恢复正常化 通胀依然顽固 二、地缘政治双重危机升级 与此同时，两大地缘政治热点正在加剧市场波动： 中东局势升级 伊朗与以色列冲突风险持续 红海航运危机推高全球航运成本和能源价格 核心 CPI 同比仍维持在 3.5% 以上，远高于美联储 2% 的目标 服务通胀（特别是住房和医疗成本）保持粘性，下降速度缓慢 鲍威尔的困境 若关注就业：应尽快降息防止经济硬着陆 若关注通胀：应维持高利率直至通胀彻底受控 这种数据背离让美联储陷入 2008 年以来最复杂的政策困境。 俄乌冲突进入新阶段 冲突长期化趋势明显 对全球 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the expansion of tariffs by Trump, which will not apply to goods shipped to the U.S. before a specific deadline, indicating a strategic approach to trade negotiations [2][3] - The new tariffs are expected to raise the average tariff rate in the U.S. to 15.2%, up from 13.3%, and significantly higher than the 2.3% rate before Trump's presidency [3] - The tariffs are part of Trump's broader strategy to reduce trade deficits and encourage domestic manufacturing, with ongoing negotiations with countries like Switzerland and India to potentially lower these tariffs [3][4] Group 2 - Trump is expected to announce separate tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals in the coming weeks, creating ongoing uncertainty for businesses and investors [4] - The economic impact of the tariffs is becoming clearer, with key economic indicators showing deterioration, leading to concerns about rising costs for consumers and businesses, and potential inflation [5][6] - Manufacturing jobs have decreased by 37,000 since April, highlighting the negative impact of tariffs on raw material costs for U.S. factories [6] Group 3 - The recent economic data suggests that while GDP growth appears to accelerate, it is largely due to fluctuations in imports caused by tariffs, masking underlying slowdowns in business investment and consumer spending [5][6] - The political narrative around the tariffs is shifting towards a "data war," as the administration faces scrutiny over the accuracy and reliability of economic statistics [7][9] - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to respond to economic slowdowns potentially exacerbated by tariffs, raising questions about the politicization of economic data collection [8][9]