Core Viewpoint - The recent employment report, which indicated signs of labor market weakness, has become a significant reason for the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut, aligning with President Trump's desire for lower interest rates to reduce debt costs [2][3]. Group 1: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The July employment report has been interpreted as evidence of economic slowdown, with concerns raised about the labor market's vitality [2]. - Recent comments from policymakers indicate a shift in their assessment of economic risks due to the slowdown in employment growth observed in May, June, and July [3]. - The probability of a rate cut during the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is perceived to be over 85%, contingent on forthcoming economic data [3]. Group 2: Labor Statistics Bureau (BLS) and Data Integrity - The appointment of E.J. Antoni as the new BLS director has raised concerns regarding the credibility of data that influences interest rates and stock prices [4]. - Despite recent criticisms of the BLS, the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach and has mechanisms to cross-verify data from various sources [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve utilizes alternative data sources, including private data and surveys, to assess economic conditions, ensuring a comprehensive understanding beyond BLS data [6][7]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Data Collection and Analysis - The Federal Reserve has its own channels for data collection, including surveys of corporate executives and informal interviews, which contribute to its economic assessments [7]. - The Minneapolis Fed President emphasized that any attempts to manipulate BLS data would ultimately be ineffective, as real economic conditions will be felt by the public [7].

Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US is likely to persist due to a weak labor market, with disappointing non-farm employment data reinforcing market predictions for a rate cut in September [1] - Continuous low non-farm employment numbers below 50,000 for six months could signal an economic recession, leading to increased market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Barclays predicts the European Central Bank will cut rates in December instead of September, influenced by anticipated weak economic activity in the second half of the year [2] Group 2 - Concerns over the independence and reliability of official economic data have intensified following President Trump's claims of data manipulation and the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau director [3][4] - The Korea Export-Import Bank forecasts a decline in South Korea's export value in Q3 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, projecting exports to reach approximately $167 billion, a year-on-year decrease of about 3% [3] - Analysts from Danske Bank expect the Bank of England to announce a rate cut in the upcoming decision, which may exert downward pressure on the British pound [4]