在《国家如何破产：大周期》中，达利欧不仅对过去500年的世界历史进行了系统的梳理和研究，还从中提 炼出了一套理论框架，用以解释国家兴衰的周期性规律。达利欧告诫投资者："要想做好投资，就不能只关 注市场。" 我们将这本新书的部分内容整理了出来，分享给各位读者，希望对您有所启发。 01 必须回答却被忽视的问题 一个国家的债务及其增长是否存在极限？ 如果政府债务增长未能放缓，那么利率及其影响将会如何？ 作为桥水基金的创始人，瑞·达利欧对投资原则和周期方面有着独到见解。这些见解被深入应用于实际投资 工作中，带领桥水避开了2008年金融危机等大大小小各式危机，并为投资者创造了巨额收益，具有极高的 现实意义和借鉴意义，也深得政策决策者、商界领袖和各领域专家学者的认同。 今年6月，瑞·达利欧在X上发布长文，介绍其新书《国家如何破产：大周期》的核心观点。这位全球宏观投 资者用50余年投资经验，再次系统揭示了国家如何走向债务危机：不是突然爆发，而是一个可以量化、可 监测的"大债务周期"，最终演变为系统性失控，就像"经济心脏病发作"。 一个拥有主要储备货币的大国（比如美国）是否会破产？倘若会，那又将引发怎样的连锁反应？ 是否存在 ...

作为桥水基金的创始人，瑞·达利欧对投资原则和周期方面有着独到见解。这些见解被深入应用于实际投资 工作中，带领桥水避开了2008年金融危机等大大小小各式危机，并为投资者创造了巨额收益，具有极高的 现实意义和借鉴意义，也深得政策决策者、商界领袖和各领域专家学者的认同。 今年6月，瑞·达利欧在X上发布长文，介绍其新书《国家如何破产：大周期》的核心观点。这位全球宏观投 资者用50余年投资经验，再次系统揭示了国家如何走向债务危机：不是突然爆发，而是一个可以量化、可 监测的"大债务周期"，最终演变为系统性失控，就像"经济心脏病发作"。 在《国家如何破产：大周期》中，达利欧不仅对过去500年的世界历史进行了系统的梳理和研究，还从中提 炼出了一套理论框架，用以解释国家兴衰的周期性规律。达利欧告诫投资者："要想做好投资，就不能只关 注市场。" 我们将这本新书的部分内容整理了出来，分享给各位读者，希望对您有所启发。 01 必须回答却被忽视的问题 一个国家的债务及其增长是否存在极限？ 如果政府债务增长未能放缓，那么利率及其影响将会如何？ 一个拥有主要储备货币的大国（比如美国）是否会破产？倘若会，那又将引发怎样的连锁反应？ 是否存在 ...

作为桥水基金的创始人，瑞·达利欧对投资原则和周期方面有着独到见解。这些见解被深入应用于实际投资 工作中，带领桥水避开了2008年金融危机等大大小小各式危机，并为投资者创造了巨额收益，具有极高的 现实意义和借鉴意义，也深得政策决策者、商界领袖和各领域专家学者的认同。 今年6月，瑞·达利欧在X上发布长文，介绍其新书《国家如何破产：大周期》的核心观点。这位全球宏观投 资者用50余年投资经验，再次系统揭示了国家如何走向债务危机：不是突然爆发，而是一个可以量化、可 监测的"大债务周期"，最终演变为系统性失控，就像"经济心脏病发作"。 在《国家如何破产：大周期》中，达利欧不仅对过去500年的世界历史进行了系统的梳理和研究，还从中提 炼出了一套理论框架，用以解释国家兴衰的周期性规律。达利欧告诫投资者："要想做好投资，就不能只关 注市场。" 我们将这本新书的部分内容整理了出来，分享给各位读者，希望对您有所启发。 01 必须回答却被忽视的问题 一个国家的债务及其增长是否存在极限？ 如果政府债务增长未能放缓，那么利率及其影响将会如何？ 一个拥有主要储备货币的大国（比如美国）是否会破产？倘若会，那又将引发怎样的连锁反应？ 是否存在 ...

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the importance of understanding debt cycles and their impact on national economies, particularly in his new book "How Countries Fail: The Big Cycle" [3][4] - The book outlines a quantifiable and monitorable "big debt cycle" that leads to systemic crises, akin to an "economic heart attack" [3][5] - Dalio's research spans 500 years of world history, providing a theoretical framework to explain the cyclical nature of national rise and fall [3][6] Group 1: Key Questions Addressed - The article raises critical questions regarding the limits of national debt growth, the implications of rising interest rates, and the potential for a major reserve currency nation like the U.S. to face bankruptcy [5][6] - It highlights the lack of clear answers to these questions, which are essential for investors and policymakers alike [6][7] Group 2: Macro Investor Perspective - Dalio approaches the study of debt from a global macro investor's perspective, having experienced multiple debt cycles over the past 50 years [8][9] - His research includes an analysis of significant debt cycles over the last century and a broader examination of 500 years of historical cases [9][10] Group 3: Understanding the Big Cycle - The "big debt cycle" typically spans around 80 years, making it difficult for individuals to recognize its patterns within their lifetimes [10][11] - Dalio argues that societal focus on immediate events often obscures the larger macroeconomic picture, leading to systemic biases in understanding debt risks [11][12] Group 4: The Nature of Order - The evolution of order is defined as the transition from one operational paradigm to another, influenced by monetary, political, and geopolitical factors [12][13] - Dalio asserts that the collapse of these orders often occurs only once in a person's lifetime, accompanied by significant pain [12][13] Group 5: Current Economic Context - The article discusses the dangers of assuming that current high levels of government debt will not lead to crises, drawing parallels to historical conflicts and crises [11][14] - It emphasizes the need for a dynamic model to analyze current situations against historical precedents to understand potential future outcomes [14][15] Group 6: Future Trends and Implications - Dalio predicts that the next 5-10 years will witness significant changes in major orders, with many currently rising entities potentially declining [16][17] - The article suggests that while technological advancements may have a substantial positive impact, they may not be sufficient to counteract negative forces such as debt and conflict [16][17] Group 7: Importance of Human Capital - Countries that effectively manage their debt and provide quality education and opportunities for their citizens are likely to thrive [17][18] - The article warns that extreme partisanship and conflict within societies can lead to dire consequences, emphasizing the need for collective problem-solving [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the "Big Debt Cycle" and its implications for national economies, highlighting the cyclical nature of debt and its potential to lead to crises if not managed properly [2][4]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction sets the stage for exploring the mechanisms of the Big Debt Cycle and its historical context [6]. Part One: Overview of the Big Debt Cycle - This section explains the mechanisms of the Big Debt Cycle using both textual and numerical representations [6]. Part Two: Typical Evolution Paths Leading to Government and Central Bank Bankruptcy - It outlines the stages of debt crises, starting from the private sector to the central government, and eventually to the central bank, detailing the progression through various phases [6]. Part Three: Reflection on the Past - A historical overview from 1865 to the present is provided, discussing different monetary systems and their impacts on debt cycles, including the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and fiscal deficits [6]. Part Four: Outlook for the Future - The author presents indicators and a "3% Three-Part" solution to address future debt crises, offering insights into potential economic transformations [6]. Author's Background - Ray Dalio, the author, is recognized for his significant contributions to the investment world through his firm Bridgewater Associates and his influential writings on economic principles [3]. Expert Recommendations - Experts highlight the book's thorough analysis of historical data and its relevance in understanding long-term debt cycles, emphasizing the need for effective debt management strategies to avoid crises [4][5].

2025.07. 02 本文字数：2860，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 瑞·达利欧 《国家为什么会破产：大周期》是桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧站在全球政治、经济格局变化的重要节 点，针对迫在眉睫的债务问题与货币体系崩溃危机，对世界提出的警示。他通过对过去100年中35个 货币市场的研究，他创造性地总结了人类历史中反复上演的"大债务周期"及其发展必经的阶段。 从《原则》《债务危机》《原则：应对变化中的世界秩序》到《国家为什么会破产》，瑞·达利欧始 终致力于探索事物变化背后那些永恒而普遍的力量。在这本书中，达利欧探究的是信贷、债务对经 济、政治乃至国际秩序的周期性影响，他不仅直观地展现了债务是如何导致国家破产乃至政体崩溃等 危机的，更给出了"和谐的去杠杆化"的财政策略。达利欧通过本书告诫世人，必须重视经验与规律， 不能因历史上的重大危机从未在有生之年出现过就轻视了其深层力量，因为它们很有可能即将发生。 经出版社授权，第一财经节选书中部分篇章，以飨读者。 一个国家的债务及其增长是否存在极限？ 一个拥有主要储备货币的大国（比如美国）是否会破产？倘若会，那又将引发怎样的连锁反应？ 如果政府债务增长未能放缓，那么 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the limits of government debt growth and its implications for interest rates and potential bankruptcy of major reserve currency countries like the U.S. [1] - It raises questions about the existence of a "long-term debt cycle" that could indicate when to be concerned about debt issues and how to respond [1][2] - The author emphasizes the lack of recognition and discussion surrounding long-term debt cycles, despite their significant impact on economies [2][3] Group 1: Long-term Debt Cycle - The long-term debt cycle is not widely acknowledged or discussed, even among top economists [2] - The author has studied significant debt cycles over the past 100 years and believes understanding these cycles is crucial for navigating future economic conditions [2][3] - Historical cases show that approximately 20% of debt/monetary markets have survived since 1700, with surviving markets experiencing severe currency devaluation [3] Group 2: Mechanisms and Patterns - The author aims to clarify the mechanisms of long-term debt cycles to create a framework for analyzing current and future monetary and debt conditions [4] - The long-term debt cycle typically spans about 80 years, making it difficult for individuals to recognize its patterns through personal experience [4][5] - There is a systemic bias in recognizing debt risks, as many people enjoy the consumption power that credit provides [5] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Implications - The author warns against assuming that current conditions will differ from historical precedents, especially in light of rising government debt [6] - The analysis framework developed by the author aims to help readers understand the essence of current situations and predict future trends [6][7] - The interplay of various cycles, including debt, political, and geopolitical cycles, is crucial in understanding the overall economic landscape [7] Group 4: Structure of the Research - The research is divided into four parts, covering the overview of the long-term debt cycle, typical paths leading to government and central bank bankruptcy, historical reflections, and future outlooks [9] - The author provides a comprehensive analysis of 35 significant debt cycles and their characteristics, along with a focus on the U.S. and other countries' trajectories since World War II [9][10] - The final part explores potential solutions to the U.S. debt dilemma and the future evolution of the five driving forces behind these cycles [9]

导语 ：我们正在见证主要的货币、政治和地缘政治秩序的经典崩溃。 本文作者为瑞·达里奥（Ray Dalio） 就当下时政与经济环境做出的评价。 达里奥是桥水基金公司的创始人兼首席执行官。他的投资创新（例如风险平价、阿尔法叠加和全天 候）改变了全球机构的投资方式，他获得了多项终身成就奖。 此刻，人们正理所当然地对宣布的关税及其对市场和经济的巨大影响给予大量关注，而对导致这些 关税的情况以及未来可能出现的最大颠覆却鲜有关注。 不要误解我的意思，尽管这些关税公告是非常重要的发展，我们都知道是美国总统特朗普促成了这 些措施，但大多数人忽视了他当选总统并带来这些关税的根本情况。他们也大多忽略了推动几乎一 切（包括关税在内）的更为重要得多的力量。 我们需要牢记的远更大、更重要的事情是，我们正在见证主要的货币、政治和地缘政治秩序的经典 崩溃。这种崩溃大约一生中只发生一次，但在历史上，当类似的不可持续条件存在时，这种情况已 经多次发生。 更具体地说： 货币/经济秩序正在崩溃，因为现有债务过多，增加债务的速度过快，现有的资本市场和经济依赖这 种不可持续的巨额债务支撑。债务不可持续是因为存在巨大的不平衡： a) 债务人-借款人（例 ...