我们将这本新书的部分内容整理了出来，分享给各位读者，希望对您有所启发。 01 必须回答却被忽视的问题 一个国家的债务及其增长是否存在极限？ 作为桥水基金的创始人，瑞·达利欧对投资原则和周期方面有着独到见解。这些见解被深入应用于实际投资 工作中，带领桥水避开了2008年金融危机等大大小小各式危机，并为投资者创造了巨额收益，具有极高的 现实意义和借鉴意义，也深得政策决策者、商界领袖和各领域专家学者的认同。 今年6月，瑞·达利欧在X上发布长文，介绍其新书《国家如何破产：大周期》的核心观点。这位全球宏观投 资者用50余年投资经验，再次系统揭示了国家如何走向债务危机：不是突然爆发，而是一个可以量化、可 监测的"大债务周期"，最终演变为系统性失控，就像"经济心脏病发作"。 在《国家如何破产：大周期》中，达利欧不仅对过去500年的世界历史进行了系统的梳理和研究，还从中提 炼出了一套理论框架，用以解释国家兴衰的周期性规律。达利欧告诫投资者："要想做好投资，就不能只关 注市场。" 如果政府债务增长未能放缓，那么利率及其影响将会如何？ 一个拥有主要储备货币的大国（比如美国）是否会破产？倘若会，那又将引发怎样的连锁反应？ 是否存在 ...

Core Insights - Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, has significantly reduced its holdings in major tech companies while increasing its investment in the S&P 500 ETF by 883% and initiating a position in Tesla, signaling a strategic shift in investment focus [1][5] Group 1: Reduction in Tech Holdings - Bridgewater has cut its stake in Nvidia by 1.25 million shares, Google by 750,000 shares, and Apple by 40%, with other tech giants like Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon also facing reductions [3][4] Group 2: Key Signals from the Moves - The reduction in tech stocks suggests a warning against valuation bubbles, as Nvidia's stock rose over 200% last year, leading to a dynamic P/E ratio exceeding 80 times, making profit-taking a normal strategy [5] - The shift to index ETFs indicates a strategy to diversify risk, moving away from high concentration in tech stocks [5] - The initiation of a position in Tesla, with 150,000 shares, reflects a long-term outlook on the electric vehicle market rather than short-term fluctuations [5] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, has cautioned about the potential end of the "big debt cycle" in the U.S., suggesting that a shift in Federal Reserve policy could lead to a burst in tech stock bubbles [5] - The strategy of moving funds from high-valuation stocks to index ETFs represents a preference for overall economic resilience over individual stock performance [5] Group 4: Investment Lessons - Investors should learn to take profits on high-flying stocks like Nvidia, rather than holding onto them indefinitely [6] - Emphasizing a balanced investment approach is crucial, combining index funds, leading industry stocks, and cash to withstand market volatility [6] - Monitoring macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, debt, and inflation is essential, as these variables often have a greater impact on market trends than individual company earnings reports [6]

Core Insights - Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds globally, reported a total holding of $25.5 billion as of September 30, 2025, an increase from $24.8 billion at the end of the previous quarter [1] - The fund increased its positions in 325 securities, reduced its holdings in 194, initiated positions in 493 new securities, and completely exited 64 positions during the third quarter [1] - The top two holdings remain the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), with a portfolio concentration of 32.54% in the top ten holdings [1] Holdings Summary - The largest holding, IVV, comprises 10.62% of the portfolio, with a market value of approximately $2.71 billion, while SPY accounts for 6.69% with a market value of about $1.71 billion [2] - Nvidia (NVDA) dropped from the third to the sixth largest holding, with a significant reduction of 4.72 million shares, marking a 65.3% decrease from the previous quarter [2][3] - Other notable holdings include Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Lam Research (LRCX), with GOOGL seeing a reduction of 2.94 million shares [2][3] Top Buys and Sells - The top buys for the quarter included IVV, LRCX, Adobe (ADBE), Sea Ltd, and Reddit Inc, with IVV seeing a 4.83% increase in portfolio allocation [4] - Significant sells included Nvidia, iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG), and SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), indicating a cautious outlook on these assets [4][5] Market Outlook - Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, warned that the U.S. economy may be entering the later stages of a "big debt cycle," suggesting that the current bull market driven by tech stocks may continue in the short term due to ongoing AI trends [5] - Dalio indicated that once inflation risks resurface, companies with tangible asset attributes, such as those in mining and infrastructure, may outperform pure tech companies [5]

Core Insights - Bridgewater's overall holdings reached $25.5 billion as of September 30, 2025, an increase from $24.8 billion at the end of the previous quarter [3] - The fund increased its positions in 325 securities, reduced its holdings in 194, initiated 493 new positions, and completely exited 64 positions during the third quarter [4] Holdings Overview - The concentration of Bridgewater's top ten holdings was 32.54%, with iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remaining the top two positions [5] - The top holdings included IVV with a market value of approximately $2.71 billion (10.62% of the portfolio) and SPY valued at about $1.71 billion (6.69% of the portfolio) [6] Notable Changes in Holdings - Nvidia's shares were reduced by 4.72 million, dropping from 7.23 million to 2.51 million, a decrease of 65.3% [7] - This reduction in Nvidia's position indicates a cautious outlook from Bridgewater regarding the stock's future performance [8] Market Performance - Nvidia's stock price increased by 46% and 18% in the second and third quarters of the year, respectively, but only saw a slight increase of 0.15% in the most recent quarter [9] Top Sells and Buys - Significant reductions were also made in iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), and Microsoft [11] - The top buys for the third quarter included IVV, Lam Research Corp (LRCX), Adobe, Sea Ltd, and Reddit Inc, with IVV seeing a 4.83% increase in portfolio allocation [13] Economic Outlook - Ray Dalio warned that the U.S. economy may be entering the later stages of a "big debt cycle," with potential bubbles forming due to the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy [11] - He believes that the current bull market driven by tech stocks will continue in the short term, primarily fueled by ongoing interest in artificial intelligence [12]

Core Insights - Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds globally, reported a total holding of $25.5 billion as of September 30, 2025, an increase from $24.8 billion at the end of the previous quarter [1]. Holdings Summary - In Q3, Bridgewater increased its positions in 325 securities, reduced its holdings in 194, initiated positions in 493 new securities, and completely exited 64 positions [2]. - The concentration of Bridgewater's top ten holdings was 32.54%, with iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) remaining the top two holdings [2]. Top Holdings - The top holdings included: - IVV: 4,049,300 shares valued at approximately $2.71 billion, representing 10.62% of the portfolio, an increase from 5.78% [3]. - SPY: 2,565,088 shares valued at approximately $1.71 billion, representing 6.69% of the portfolio, a slight decrease from 6.51% [3]. - GOOGL: 2,653,896 shares valued at approximately $645.16 million, representing 2.53% of the portfolio, down from 3.98% [3]. - MSFT: 1,097,169 shares valued at approximately $568.28 million, representing 2.23% of the portfolio, down from 3.44% [3]. - NVDA: 2,509,751 shares valued at approximately $468.27 million, representing 1.83% of the portfolio, down from 4.61% [3]. Notable Changes - Bridgewater significantly reduced its position in NVIDIA by approximately 4.72 million shares, bringing its total to 2.51 million shares, a decrease of 65.3% from the previous quarter [3][4]. - In Q2, Bridgewater had increased its NVIDIA holdings by 154.37%, indicating a shift to a more cautious outlook on the stock [4]. Top Buys and Sells - The top buys in Q3 included: - IVV: Increased by 4.83% [5]. - LRCX: Increased by 1.17% [5]. - ADBE: Increased by 0.61% [5]. - The top sells included: - IEMG: Decreased by 3.86% [5]. - NVDA: Decreased by 2.77% [5]. - GOOGL: Decreased by 1.45% [5]. Market Outlook - Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater, warned that the U.S. economy may be entering the later stages of a "big debt cycle," with potential bubbles forming due to the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy [6]. - Dalio believes that the current bull market driven by technology stocks will continue in the short term, primarily fueled by ongoing interest in artificial intelligence [6].

Group 1: Market Impact - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility, with the Nasdaq index dropping 3.04%, marking its worst performance since early April [1][3] - A dramatic V-shaped reversal occurred on November 7, where the market initially opened lower but ended with slight gains for the Dow and S&P 500, driven by news of a potential compromise to end the government shutdown [3] - Despite a minor rebound, technology stocks faced heavy selling, with Nvidia dropping nearly 5% during the day and Microsoft experiencing its longest losing streak since November 2011 [5] Group 2: Economic Consequences - The ongoing government shutdown, now lasting 39 days, is projected to reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 1 to 2 percentage points in Q4, leading to estimated economic losses of $7 billion to $14 billion depending on the duration of the shutdown [7] - The shutdown has disrupted the release of critical economic data, including the non-farm payroll report, creating a "data vacuum" that complicates market and policy decision-making [9][10] Group 3: Labor Market Conditions - Private sector reports indicate a struggling labor market, with over 153,000 layoffs announced in October, the highest for that month in over 20 years, primarily in the tech and warehousing sectors [13] - The ISM services employment index stands at 48.2% and manufacturing at 46%, indicating economic contraction, while job vacancy indicators have dropped to their lowest levels since February 2021 [13] Group 4: Government Negotiations - Negotiations between Senate Democrats and Republicans remain stalled, with Democrats seeking to extend healthcare subsidies while Republicans insist on reopening the government first [16]

Group 1 - US stock index futures are slightly down, with Dow Jones futures down 0.29%, S&P 500 futures down 0.37%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.56% [1] - European stock markets are collectively down, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.71%, France's CAC 40 down 0.51%, and Germany's DAX 30 down 1.04% [1] - AI startup Anthropic plans to expand its operations in Europe by opening new offices in Paris and Munich, increasing its European presence to five locations [1] - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman stated that the company does not seek government guarantees for its data centers and emphasized that market forces should determine the fate of failing companies [1] - At Tesla's annual shareholder meeting, Elon Musk's compensation plan, potentially worth up to $1 trillion, was approved with over 75% shareholder support, marking the largest executive compensation plan in corporate history [1] - Musk anticipates that Tesla will need to establish a "gigantic" chip factory to support its ambitions in manufacturing autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots, and Tesla may collaborate with Intel [1] Group 2 - Apple's status page indicates that its streaming service in the US has been restored after a brief outage, with user reports of issues dropping from a peak of approximately 15,000 to 208 [2] - SanDisk has launched the world's smallest 1TB USB-C flash drive, the SANDISK Extreme Fit USB-C Flash Drive, featuring USB 3.2 Gen 1 interface with read speeds up to 400MB/s [2] - TSMC plans to implement widespread price increases for advanced chip manufacturing processes below 5nm, having already notified major clients including Apple [2] - Former President Trump disagreed with the notion that American citizens are paying for tariffs, acknowledging some costs but claiming overall benefits for Americans [2] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the US economy may be entering the late stage of a "big debt cycle," with the Fed's easing policies potentially inflating bubbles that could burst when tightening begins [2]

Group 1 - Major stock indices futures are showing positive trends, with Dow futures up 0.19%, S&P 500 futures up 0.26%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.30% [1] - Tesla's stock rose nearly 2% after Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation package was approved with over 75% shareholder support, marking the largest executive compensation plan in corporate history [1] - Musk announced that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) has received "partial approval" in China, with full approval expected around February or March 2026, and mentioned the need for a "Terafab" chip factory to produce 1 million wafers monthly [1] Group 2 - Apple's streaming service experienced a brief outage but has since been restored, with user reports dropping from a peak of 15,000 to 208 [2] - SanDisk shares increased nearly 8% following the launch of the world's smallest 1TB USB-C flash drive, which offers read speeds of up to 400MB/s [2] - Duolingo's stock continued to decline by over 1% after a significant drop of nearly 30% due to disappointing Q3 guidance focused on user growth rather than short-term monetization [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley predicts that Apple's emerging robotics business could generate $130 billion in revenue by 2040, representing 30% of Apple's current revenue [3] - OpenAI's CEO stated that the company does not seek government bailouts for its data centers, emphasizing that market forces should determine the fate of businesses [3] - Ray Dalio warned that the U.S. economy may be entering the later stages of a "big debt cycle," with potential bubbles forming due to the Federal Reserve's loose monetary policy [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the Federal Reserve's decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) may be adding fuel to an already inflated market, creating a larger bubble rather than stimulating a depressed economy [1][8]. Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The current environment of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) is characterized by high asset valuations and a relatively strong economy, contrasting with historical instances where QE was deployed during economic downturns [8]. - The S&P 500 earnings yield is at 4.4%, while the nominal yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is approximately 4%, leading to a real yield of about 1.8% [8]. - The average real GDP growth rate over the past year is around 2%, with an unemployment rate of only 4.3% [8]. Group 2: Debt Cycle and Risks - Dalio emphasizes that the U.S. is in a dangerous phase of the "big debt cycle," where the supply of U.S. Treasuries exceeds demand, prompting the Fed to print money to purchase bonds [2]. - The current fiscal policy is highly stimulative, with significant government debt and deficits being financed through large-scale bond issuance, effectively monetizing government debt [10][11]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Asset Performance - In a liquidity-rich environment, long-duration assets (such as technology and AI stocks) and inflation-hedging assets (like gold) are expected to benefit, but this "liquidity bubble" will eventually face risks from accumulated challenges and tightening policies [3][15]. - The implementation of QE typically creates liquidity and lowers real interest rates, which can inflate asset prices and widen the wealth gap between asset holders and non-holders [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Dalio warns of a potential "liquidity melt-up" similar to the pre-burst of the 1999 internet bubble or the QE periods of 2010-2011, driven by the current policy mix of fiscal deficit expansion, monetary easing, deregulation, and AI growth [13][14]. - While such policies may create short-term asset booms, they also lead to faster bubble inflation, more challenging inflation control, and deeper risk accumulation, with significant costs when policies are reversed [15].

Group 1 - The core point of the news highlights the significant developments in various companies, including Tesla's approval of a massive compensation plan for Elon Musk and the performance of other tech stocks like Apple and SanDisk [1][2][3][4]. Group 2 - Tesla's stock rose nearly 2% following the approval of Elon Musk's compensation plan, which could be worth up to $1 trillion, receiving over 75% support from shareholders [1]. - The plan ties Musk's compensation to the company's stock price growth and requires him to hold shares for five years, aligning with shareholder interests [1]. - Musk also mentioned that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) has received "partial approval" in China, with full approval expected by early 2026 [1]. - SanDisk's stock increased nearly 8% after the launch of the world's smallest 1TB USB-C flash drive, which boasts read speeds of up to 400MB/s [2]. - Duolingo's stock continued to decline by over 1% after a significant drop of nearly 30% due to disappointing Q3 guidance, focusing more on user growth than short-term monetization [2]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that Apple's emerging robotics business could generate $130 billion in revenue by 2040, representing 30% of its current revenue [3]. - OpenAI's CEO stated that the company does not seek government bailouts for AI businesses, emphasizing market-driven outcomes [3]. - Ray Dalio warned that the U.S. economy may be entering the later stages of a "big debt cycle," with potential risks associated with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [4].