瑞·达利欧是全球知名的资产配置大师，1975年创立桥水基金。他提出并实践的"全天候策略"，是资产配 置史上具有里程碑意义的策略之一，其核心是多元化、风险平衡与再平衡。达利欧和桥水至今是投资圈 的一段传奇，在50多年的投资生涯里，他曾经历多个国家的多次债务周期。 今年，瑞·达利欧出版了新书《国家为什么会破产：大周期》，也频频出现在公众视野。站在全球政治、 经济格局变化的重要节点，达利欧针对迫在眉睫的债务问题与货币体系崩溃危机，对世界提出了关键警 示。通过对过去100年中35个货币市场的研究，他创造性地总结了人类历史中反复上演的"大债务周期"及 其发展必经的五大阶段。 9月23日，中信出版集团、中信银行北京分行联合主办的"原则、大周期与秩序重构——《国家为什么会 破产：大周期》新书发布会"在北京举办，瑞·达利欧与中国证券监督管理委员会原副主席高西庆，哈佛大 学博士、长江商学院经济学及人力资源学教授王一江，中国证券市场研究设计中心总干事王波明，共同 带来了一场精彩对谈，洞察国家兴衰、市场波动、个人财富背后的规律与周期。 编者按 ——BY 芒格书院 一、一 生仅见一次的大债务周 期 王波明： 祝贺你出版新书。瑞，你谈 ...

作为桥水基金的创始人，瑞·达利欧对投资原则和周期方面有着独到见解。这些见解被深入应用于实际投资 工作中，带领桥水避开了2008年金融危机等大大小小各式危机，并为投资者创造了巨额收益，具有极高的 现实意义和借鉴意义，也深得政策决策者、商界领袖和各领域专家学者的认同。 今年6月，瑞·达利欧在X上发布长文，介绍其新书《国家如何破产：大周期》的核心观点。这位全球宏观投 资者用50余年投资经验，再次系统揭示了国家如何走向债务危机：不是突然爆发，而是一个可以量化、可 监测的"大债务周期"，最终演变为系统性失控，就像"经济心脏病发作"。 在《国家如何破产：大周期》中，达利欧不仅对过去500年的世界历史进行了系统的梳理和研究，还从中提 炼出了一套理论框架，用以解释国家兴衰的周期性规律。达利欧告诫投资者："要想做好投资，就不能只关 注市场。" 我们将这本新书的部分内容整理了出来，分享给各位读者，希望对您有所启发。 01 必须回答却被忽视的问题 一个国家的债务及其增长是否存在极限？ 如果政府债务增长未能放缓，那么利率及其影响将会如何？ 一个拥有主要储备货币的大国（比如美国）是否会破产？倘若会，那又将引发怎样的连锁反应？ 是否存在 ...

作为桥水基金的创始人，瑞·达利欧对投资原则和周期方面有着独到见解。这些见解被深入应用于实际投资 工作中，带领桥水避开了2008年金融危机等大大小小各式危机，并为投资者创造了巨额收益，具有极高的 现实意义和借鉴意义，也深得政策决策者、商界领袖和各领域专家学者的认同。 今年6月，瑞·达利欧在X上发布长文，介绍其新书《国家如何破产：大周期》的核心观点。这位全球宏观投 资者用50余年投资经验，再次系统揭示了国家如何走向债务危机：不是突然爆发，而是一个可以量化、可 监测的"大债务周期"，最终演变为系统性失控，就像"经济心脏病发作"。 在《国家如何破产：大周期》中，达利欧不仅对过去500年的世界历史进行了系统的梳理和研究，还从中提 炼出了一套理论框架，用以解释国家兴衰的周期性规律。达利欧告诫投资者："要想做好投资，就不能只关 注市场。" 我们将这本新书的部分内容整理了出来，分享给各位读者，希望对您有所启发。 01 必须回答却被忽视的问题 一个国家的债务及其增长是否存在极限？ 如果政府债务增长未能放缓，那么利率及其影响将会如何？ 一个拥有主要储备货币的大国（比如美国）是否会破产？倘若会，那又将引发怎样的连锁反应？ 是否存在 ...

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the importance of understanding debt cycles and their impact on national economies, particularly in his new book "How Countries Fail: The Big Cycle" [3][4] - The book outlines a quantifiable and monitorable "big debt cycle" that leads to systemic crises, akin to an "economic heart attack" [3][5] - Dalio's research spans 500 years of world history, providing a theoretical framework to explain the cyclical nature of national rise and fall [3][6] Group 1: Key Questions Addressed - The article raises critical questions regarding the limits of national debt growth, the implications of rising interest rates, and the potential for a major reserve currency nation like the U.S. to face bankruptcy [5][6] - It highlights the lack of clear answers to these questions, which are essential for investors and policymakers alike [6][7] Group 2: Macro Investor Perspective - Dalio approaches the study of debt from a global macro investor's perspective, having experienced multiple debt cycles over the past 50 years [8][9] - His research includes an analysis of significant debt cycles over the last century and a broader examination of 500 years of historical cases [9][10] Group 3: Understanding the Big Cycle - The "big debt cycle" typically spans around 80 years, making it difficult for individuals to recognize its patterns within their lifetimes [10][11] - Dalio argues that societal focus on immediate events often obscures the larger macroeconomic picture, leading to systemic biases in understanding debt risks [11][12] Group 4: The Nature of Order - The evolution of order is defined as the transition from one operational paradigm to another, influenced by monetary, political, and geopolitical factors [12][13] - Dalio asserts that the collapse of these orders often occurs only once in a person's lifetime, accompanied by significant pain [12][13] Group 5: Current Economic Context - The article discusses the dangers of assuming that current high levels of government debt will not lead to crises, drawing parallels to historical conflicts and crises [11][14] - It emphasizes the need for a dynamic model to analyze current situations against historical precedents to understand potential future outcomes [14][15] Group 6: Future Trends and Implications - Dalio predicts that the next 5-10 years will witness significant changes in major orders, with many currently rising entities potentially declining [16][17] - The article suggests that while technological advancements may have a substantial positive impact, they may not be sufficient to counteract negative forces such as debt and conflict [16][17] Group 7: Importance of Human Capital - Countries that effectively manage their debt and provide quality education and opportunities for their citizens are likely to thrive [17][18] - The article warns that extreme partisanship and conflict within societies can lead to dire consequences, emphasizing the need for collective problem-solving [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, a renowned asset allocation master and founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes the critical nature of debt cycles and their impact on national success or failure in his new book "Why Nations Succeed or Fail: The Big Cycle" [1][4][10] Group 1: Key Insights from Dalio's Work - Dalio identifies five key factors in understanding the "big debt cycle," with debt being the foremost element influencing a nation's economic and political stability [4][7] - The book provides a framework for understanding historical patterns in debt cycles, encouraging a long-term and rational perspective on future uncertainties [1][12] - Dalio's analysis suggests that economic issues stemming from unsustainable debt levels can lead to significant political turmoil, including civil wars and international conflicts [4][8] Group 2: Implications for Investors - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified asset allocation strategy to mitigate risks associated with economic fluctuations and debt cycles [14][16] - Dalio suggests that a balanced investment portfolio should include 10%-15% in gold as a hedge against debt-related risks and currency devaluation [17] - The importance of understanding the underlying mechanisms of asset performance is highlighted, as it can lead to more informed investment decisions [16][17] Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The discussion includes the current state of global debt, with countries like the U.S., Japan, and China facing significant debt challenges, each with unique characteristics [10][11] - Dalio points out that traditional measures of debt sustainability, such as the debt-to-GDP ratio, may not accurately reflect the true risks, advocating for a focus on money supply as a better indicator [10][11] - The necessity for governments to manage debt through restructuring and monetary policy is emphasized, as failure to do so could lead to severe economic consequences [13][14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of a "debt era" following the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting issues such as high debt levels, fragile fiscal conditions, and social imbalances globally [2][5] - Ray Dalio's book "Why Nations Fail" addresses the limits of national debt and the potential consequences of sovereign bankruptcy, emphasizing the cyclical nature of economic conditions and the underlying rules governing national rise and fall [2][5] Debt Cycle Understanding - The concept of the "big debt cycle" is central to Dalio's analysis, which includes both short-term and long-term debt cycles. Short-term cycles typically last around 6 years, while long-term cycles accumulate from the effects of short-term cycles [5][6] - The short-term debt cycle involves a phase of low interest rates that stimulates borrowing and investment, leading to economic growth until inflation pressures prompt a tightening of monetary policy, resulting in a downturn [5][6] Stages of the Debt Cycle - Dalio identifies five stages of the big debt cycle, starting from a low-debt, high-growth phase, progressing through bubble expansion, bubble bursting, deleveraging, and finally entering a new cycle [6][7] - The fourth stage, deleveraging, often leads to asset sell-offs and economic contraction, requiring central banks to either restructure debt or increase money supply to alleviate pressure [7] Global Context and Implications - The current global context reflects the ongoing relevance of Dalio's cycle model, with U.S. national debt exceeding 120% of GDP and emerging markets facing external debt pressures amid rising interest rates [7][8] - The book emphasizes the concept of "institutional illusion," where policymakers and the public overlook debt risks during periods of apparent prosperity, potentially leading to severe economic consequences [7][8] Interconnected Cycles - Dalio introduces the "overall cycle" framework, suggesting that monetary policy is influenced by external and internal orders, technological advancements, and natural disasters, which collectively shape the debt cycle's trajectory [8][9] - Historical examples, such as the Soviet Union's collapse due to military overspending, illustrate how structural fiscal pressures can trigger national debt crises [8][9] Case Studies of Major Economies - The book analyzes the cyclical experiences of the U.S., Japan, and China, revealing insights into their economic trajectories and the implications for global economic stability [11][12] - The U.S. has experienced multiple short-term debt cycles, with current challenges including unsustainable fiscal deficits and political gridlock, yet it retains advantages in technological innovation [12][13] - Japan's experience post-bubble highlights the risks of inadequate debt restructuring and the long-term impacts of high debt levels, serving as a cautionary tale for other economies [13][14] - China's transition from debt-driven growth to high-quality development faces challenges such as local government debt and demographic shifts, but its institutional resilience offers potential for effective debt management [14][15]

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, indicates that the long-term debt cycle that began in 1945 is nearing its end, with the U.S. on the brink of significant conflict and transformation [1][3] - Dalio warns that the U.S. government's debt supply and demand situation is deteriorating like cancer, posing substantial risks to the actual value of U.S. currency and debt [1][3] Economic Conditions - Current economic indicators such as growth, inflation, real interest rates, and central bank debt monetization suggest that the U.S. economy appears to be in a favorable equilibrium, misleading observers into thinking everything is on track [3] - However, Dalio believes that the reality is much graver, as the U.S. government’s debt situation is worsening significantly [3] Stages of Economic Decline - Dalio identifies that the U.S. is in a dangerous "fifth stage" of an internal cycle, characterized by deteriorating fiscal conditions that could lead to class conflict [3] - He predicts that the U.S. and the world are approaching a "sixth stage" of chaos, typically associated with revolutions or civil wars, due to excessive debt and low governance efficiency [3] - Dalio forecasts that chaos in the U.S. is almost certain to occur within the next 5 to 10 years [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, believes the U.S. is in a dangerous "fifth stage" of a major debt cycle that began in 1945, indicating a potential for significant conflict and transformation [1][4][6]. Economic Conditions - Dalio warns that the U.S. government's debt supply and demand situation is deteriorating like cancer, despite appearances of economic stability [3][4]. - The U.S. government currently spends approximately $7 trillion annually, with revenues around $5 trillion, resulting in a deficit of about 40% [6][7]. Warning Signals - Two major warning signs for the U.S. economy include the implementation of a new round of quantitative easing and the government gaining control over the Federal Reserve [3][4]. - Dalio predicts that if these signs manifest, it would indicate significant risks to the actual value of U.S. currency and debt [3][4]. Stages of National Cycles - Dalio outlines six stages of national internal cycles, with the current U.S. situation in the fifth stage characterized by worsening fiscal conditions and potential class conflict [4][5]. - The final stage could lead to severe turmoil, including revolution or civil war [4][5]. Key Forces Influencing Debt Cycles - Five interconnected forces drive the changes in debt cycles: monetary/economic forces, domestic political/social forces, international geopolitical forces, natural forces (e.g., climate events), and human learning/technological advancement [5][6]. - The interplay of these forces contributes to the transition from "old order" to "new order," alternating between peace and conflict [5][6]. Recommendations for Reducing Bankruptcy Risk - To mitigate bankruptcy risk, Dalio suggests reducing the budget deficit to around 3% of GDP, as the current deficit is approximately 6.4% of GDP for the 2024 fiscal year [7][6]. - Achieving this requires adjustments in spending, taxation, and debt interest rates, rather than relying on just one or two factors [7][6]. Observations on China - Dalio highlights China's remarkable achievements over the past 40 years, including a 20-fold increase in per capita income and a significant reduction in poverty [8][9]. - He emphasizes the importance of education, a conducive domestic environment for productivity, and avoiding external conflicts for China's continued strength [9][16]. Technological Competition - The U.S. and China are engaged in a technological competition across various fields, including AI and biotechnology, which will shape future global dynamics [9][10]. - Dalio believes that the next 5 to 10 years will see significant changes in major global orders, driven by technological advancements [9][10]. Impact of AI on Debt Crisis - While AI has the potential to enhance decision-making and drive progress, Dalio expresses skepticism about its ability to delay the next global debt crisis, citing historical patterns of technology facing significant challenges [10][17]. - He notes that revolutionary technologies often encounter heavy debt burdens and political conflicts that can overshadow their benefits [10][17].

Core Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, emphasizes that the U.S. is entering a critical phase of its long-term debt cycle, which he believes is nearing its end, leading to significant conflict and transformation [1][3] - Dalio identifies two alarming signals for the U.S. economy: the implementation of a new round of quantitative easing and the government gaining control over the Federal Reserve, indicating a deteriorating debt situation [2][3] - He outlines a six-stage internal cycle for nations, with the U.S. currently in the dangerous fifth stage, characterized by worsening fiscal conditions and potential class conflict [3][4] Economic Conditions - The U.S. government currently spends approximately $7 trillion annually while generating $5 trillion in revenue, resulting in a 40% budget deficit, which is rapidly increasing the national debt [5][6] - Dalio suggests that reducing the budget deficit to around 3% of GDP is essential to mitigate bankruptcy risks, as the current deficit is projected to be 6.4% of GDP for the fiscal year 2024 [6] Global Perspectives - Dalio highlights China's remarkable achievements over the past 40 years, including a 20-fold increase in per capita income and a poverty rate below 1%, viewing these as some of the greatest accomplishments in human history [7] - He predicts that the next 5 to 10 years will be a period of significant change for major global orders, emphasizing the importance of education, a conducive domestic environment, and avoiding external conflicts for national strength [8] Technological Impact - Dalio expresses optimism about the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI) across various sectors, predicting substantial advancements in the next five years [9] - However, he remains skeptical about AI's ability to delay the next global debt crisis, citing historical patterns where technological advancements are often hindered by heavy debt burdens and political strife [9]

Group 1 - Ray Dalio emphasizes that the current U.S. debt situation is deteriorating, likening it to cancer, and warns of potential significant risks to the economy [1][2][3] - Dalio identifies two critical warning signs for the U.S. economy: the implementation of a new round of quantitative easing and the government gaining control over the Federal Reserve [2][3] - The U.S. is believed to be in a dangerous "fifth stage" of its internal cycle, characterized by worsening fiscal conditions and potential class conflict, leading to a "sixth stage" of chaos [3][4] Group 2 - Dalio suggests that the best way to reduce the risk of U.S. government bankruptcy is to cut the budget deficit to around 3% of GDP, as the current deficit is approximately 6.4% of GDP for the 2024 fiscal year [6] - The U.S. government currently spends about $7 trillion annually while generating $5 trillion in revenue, leading to a 40% overspend and rapidly increasing debt [5][6] - Dalio notes that the interest on the debt, which is about $1 trillion annually, consumes a significant portion of government spending, exacerbating the fiscal crisis [6] Group 3 - Dalio highlights China's remarkable achievements over the past 40 years, including a 20-fold increase in per capita income and a poverty rate below 1% [7] - He predicts that the next 5 to 10 years will see significant changes in global order, emphasizing the importance of education, a conducive domestic environment, and avoiding external conflicts for China [8] - Dalio expresses optimism about the potential of artificial intelligence to drive progress across various fields, although he remains skeptical about its ability to delay the next global debt crisis [9][10]