证券研究报告 | 行业点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 21 年 月 日 通信 AI 走向太空：商业航天+太空算力 近期 Rocket Lab（RKLB）股价大幅上涨，我们认为，其背后反映的是资本市场对 商业航天成本曲线拐点的重新定价。在发射频次提升、单位运载成本持续下降的 背景下，围绕低轨与深空的应用场景正加速从"可行性验证"走向"工程化落地"。 我们认为：商业航天是决定太空算力能否成立的核心成本变量，太空算力是商业 航天释放价值弹性的关键应用场景。 一、为什么算力要"上天"：获取不受约束的能源 算力扩张的核心瓶颈正从芯片供给转向能源约束。超大规模 AIDC 建设带来的电力 需求呈指数级增长，未来单一训练集群功率需求或达数 GW 量级，超出现有电网 与发电体系的承载能力。美国部分核心数据中心区域电力接入排期长达数年，算 力建设节奏受到实质性限制。同时百万卡级集群下散热需求同步抬升，单位算力 用水成本提升，能源问题（电+水+土地）成为算力扩张的"硬约束"。 算力上天是能源获取路径的重构。晨昏轨道等特殊轨道可实现近乎全天候太阳能 获取，且不受土地、环保及电网接入限制，具备稳定可持续的能源供给力；同 ...

Core Ambitions: Reshaping Humanity's Future with Technology - The interview highlights two clear lines: the ambition to reshape the future with technology and anxiety over the decline of Western civilization [2] - Three core technologies are emphasized: Optimus humanoid robot, AI surpassing human intelligence, and Mars colonization [2] Short-term Vision: Optimus as a "Productivity Revolution" - Musk claims Optimus is "the greatest product in human history," addressing the ultimate issue of "general labor" [3] - The cost of producing 1 million units is projected to be between $20,000 to $25,000 per unit, with AI chips costing $5,000 to $6,000 and motor drivers being another significant cost [3] - The challenge lies in replicating human hand dexterity, which has 27-28 degrees of freedom, requiring Tesla to develop components from scratch [3][4] Mid-term Vision: AI Surpassing Human Intelligence - Musk sets a timeline for AI to exceed human intelligence in specific tasks by 2026 and overall human intelligence by 2030 [6] - The AI5 chip is expected to enhance performance by 40 times, addressing previous limitations in AI development [6] - The upcoming V14 software version aims to give Tesla vehicles a "new brain" through significant parameter increases and improved learning capabilities [6] Long-term Vision: Mars Colonization - Musk views Mars colonization as a backup plan for civilization, aiming to establish a self-sustaining presence on Mars within 30 years [9] - The strategy involves exponential growth in cargo capacity during launch windows, with the goal of achieving self-sufficiency on Mars [10] Underlying Anxiety: Three Issues Facing Western Civilization - Musk expresses concern over three critical issues: declining birth rates, uncontrolled borders leading to cultural replacement, and denial of societal problems by elite media [11] - He advocates for a "philosophy of curiosity" to encourage exploration and address internal conflicts [11] Key Questions to Understand Musk's Logic - The importance of Optimus over Tesla vehicles lies in its potential to revolutionize labor, impacting productivity significantly more than automobiles [12] - The implications of AI surpassing human intelligence could lead to solutions for major global issues, but also pose risks if not controlled [12] - The feasibility of Mars colonization by 2050 depends on the progress of the Starship program and effective use of launch windows [13]