2025.11.24 周一 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 离大谱，本来上周对12月的降息预期就已经30%~60%反复横跳，再来没有数据的参考，对行情来说，可谓真的是被吊住了。难不成真的要俄乌真正落幕的 时候才能见分晓吗？可从近期的发展中看，很难，这场来自俄美中欧的顶级微妙的平衡，稍有不慎落地即炸。 个人认为，当前环境中，一改震荡节奏前，还是周初比较重要。周四五的北美盘会提前休市，大洋彼岸的交易员们忙着过感恩节假期，愿意去推动行情的可 能性不大。 并且，黄金也是微妙的平衡。三角和次高之间，当前数次测试了临近下趋势线的支撑。大周期中，周线报收的也是十字阴烛，并没有太强下抛。日线更不提 了，一周五天，非农数据都安排上了，硬是以十字星收尾，影线刺破不少，实质性不高。是否能看到延续，是唯一值得场内选手担忧的。 十一月的最后一周，这周也并不是特别的安稳呢。 在周五的直播当中，跟大家去说到了，这个行情呢，无所谓就是三角次高的两个选项而已。但11月公布出来的，关于10月份的数据是并不多的，上周的非农 等数据也没有实质性的帮助。 据本周数据消息呢，周二的零售销售月率是相对重要的（PCE数据并没有严格说是否公布，大概 ...

就这么跟大家说吧，从3311向4381拉的斐波那契可知，斐波那契的第一个回调线是4128，这也是上周对这个位置非常推崇的原因。38.2%的位置在3972的， 肉眼可见的小周期级别当中三次没有撑住，说明这个位置不行了。 回到50%的位置上是在3846上。所以可想而知，慢涨后面真的跟的是快跌。而且这种跌幅呢，是压根儿不给人什么反应的时间的。 2025.10.28 周二 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 国际下破4000之际，国内的900摇摇欲坠呐。 好消息，有好位置买实物啦；坏消息，被套的选手应该不少，不好下树呀。 昨天我还在说，黄金的下跌并没有结束的意思。行情是真真正正的收了一根大阴，把日线的布林带中轨整个砸了下来，所以说现在还是调整进行时，并且是 那种非常有强度的调整进行时。 虽说从上周二开始，行情的调整一直就没有结束过，但是肉眼可见的它的力度不对，若再进一步下跌的话，它的跌幅是比之前的涨幅要强的。而且之前的涨 幅各位也都清楚，是几乎没有什么调整性的上涨，以至于的下方几乎全都是空窗区。 市场中有句俗语"慢涨急跌"，指的就是这种中间无支撑的空白区，很好被拉下。 从ETF方面来讲，白银和黄金的持仓都是在减 ...

Group 1: US Dollar Index - The US Dollar Index showed an upward trend last Friday, reaching a high of 97.951 and a low of 97.515, closing at 97.828 [1] - The price is currently supported at the daily and four-hour levels, indicating a bullish outlook [1] - The weekly resistance level is at 98.90, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the medium term [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices increased last Friday, with a high of 3368.57 and a low of 3321.7, closing at 3357.3 [3] - The 3373 level is identified as a critical Fibonacci retracement level, requiring careful monitoring for potential resistance [4] - The four-hour support level is at 3335, with a bullish outlook as long as prices remain above this level [4] Group 3: EUR/USD Market - The EUR/USD pair experienced a decline last Friday, with a low of 1.1664 and a high of 1.1713, closing at 1.1691 [6] - The monthly support level is at 1.0950, indicating a long-term bullish perspective [6] - The four-hour resistance level is at 1.1700, suggesting a short-term bearish outlook as prices remain below this level [6]

Group 1 - The current market sentiment for gold is bearish, with a focus on short positions as the primary trading strategy [1][6] - Key resistance level for gold is at 3345, while support is identified at 3310, with a potential target below 3200 if the support is broken [1][4] - Recent market news, including trade negotiations and ceasefire agreements, have not significantly impacted the expected downward trend in gold prices [2][4] Group 2 - The analysis indicates a potential target of 3275 for gold prices based on Fibonacci retracement levels, with further targets at 3285 and 3245 [4] - A recent trading attempt at 3309 resulted in a stop loss, highlighting the challenges of accurately predicting market movements [4][5] - The overall trading strategy emphasizes a continued focus on bearish positions, with no significant bullish trends expected in the near term [6]