周二(12月30日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格小幅反弹，目前交投于4361.46美元/盎司附近，现货黄金在日 内交易中上涨，试图收复此前部分跌幅，以缓解在指标开始释放积极信号之际相对强弱指标上明显的超 卖状态，这一修复意图更为明确。然而，此次改善仍处于持续负面压力之下。 尽管如此，进一步的盘整或暂时的抛售并不能排除，因为14日相对强弱指数(RSI)徘徊在中线附近。这 表明短期内的中性动能。 需要关注的直接阻力位是布林带的上边界4520美元。若果断突破该水平，可能会触发对歷史高点4550美 元的重新测试，并朝向4600美元的心理关口。 在新年假期前，交易量预计将保持低迷。交易者准备在周二稍晚发布的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会 议纪要中寻找新的动力。 从技术面来看，黄金当天以积极的姿态交易。这种贵金属的建设性前景持续存在，因为价格保持在日线 图的关键100日指数移动平均线(EMA)之上，同时布林带扩大。 另一方面，黄金的初始支撑位出现在4305-4300美元区间，代表12月29日的低点和整数位。若后续卖盘 突破上述水平，将表明修正还有更多空间，可能会瞄准12月16日的低点4271美元。 据路透社周一报导，俄罗斯指 ...

美元/日元连续第三个交易日下跌。 测试20日简单移动平均线（SMA）附近的155.70支撑位。 IC平台从技术角度来看，动量指标证实了看跌基调。MACD指标正在回落至其红色信号线下方，但仍高于零轴；RSI指标倾向于跌破50的中性水平；随机指 标已从超买区域形成看跌交叉。与此同时，布林带正在收窄，价格在突破上轨后回落。 跌破20日简单移动平均线可能会触及50日简单移动平均线附近的强劲支撑位154.65——该水平已限制跌幅超过一个月，并与布林带下轨重合。跌破该水平 后，下一个目标是11月14日的低点153.60附近，随后是10月和9月的低点，分别约为152.00（与7月下降趋势线一致）和151.60。 美元/日元延续了从157.90以来的三天回调走势，形成看跌双顶形态，目前正在测试20日简单移动平均线（SMA）附近的155.70支撑位。 此走势反映了日本央行和美联储的政策分歧，投资者正在消化日本央行会议纪要——其中政策制定者讨论了进一步加息的必要性——而美联储降息预期上升 继续对美元构成压力。尽管美国第三季度GDP数据表现强劲，显示美国经济增速达到两年来的最快水平，但这些预期并未因此改变。 动量指标维持中性至看跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by uncertainty, with limited data available for analysis, particularly regarding retail sales and employment figures, which may impact future market movements [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming retail sales month-on-month data is considered important, while the PCE data is unlikely to be released due to the October government shutdown [2]. - The employment data for November will not be available until after the December FOMC meeting, adding to the uncertainty [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Predictions - Predictions for the next three FOMC meetings indicate a 69.4% chance of maintaining the current interest rate of 3.75%-4.00% by December 11, 2025, with a decreasing likelihood of this rate in subsequent meetings [3]. - The fluctuating expectations for a rate cut in December have been between 30% and 60%, reflecting the market's uncertainty [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The market is currently in a state of indecision, with traders likely to be less active due to the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, which may limit market movements [3]. - The gold market is also experiencing a delicate balance, with multiple tests of support levels and a lack of strong downward momentum [4][7]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The key support level for gold is identified around 4030-4025, with potential downward movement if this level is breached [7]. - The Fibonacci retracement levels indicate important resistance around 4115-4120, which may affect trading strategies [7]. Group 5: Upcoming Events - The final week of November is expected to be unstable, with traders advised to monitor key levels closely [5][7]. - A simulation trading competition is set to begin on December 1, with the last week for registration [7].

Group 1: Bitcoin Analysis - The Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart show a clear contraction, with prices retreating from the upper band and finding support near the lower band around 104,600, currently oscillating near the middle band at 105,000. This indicates intense short-term bullish and bearish battles, with the market remaining in a wide range of 104,000-108,000, and key support/resistance levels not being effectively breached [1] - The MACD indicator shows the fast and slow lines converging below the zero axis, with a shortening green momentum bar, indicating weakened short-term downward momentum, but no clear bullish crossover has formed, requiring observation of the rebound's sustainability [1] - The 4-hour RSI has rebounded from the oversold zone (below 30) to around 50, hovering in the neutral zone without showing overbought/oversold signals, confirming the oscillating pattern [1] Group 2: Ethereum Analysis - The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, with prices oscillating around the middle and lower bands (3,500-3,560), forming a typical converging triangle. The middle band (3,580) faced pressure and retreated, indicating insufficient short-term bullish strength, but the 3,500 support level remains intact without a breakdown [2] - During the rebound, trading volume has not significantly increased, showing a price rise with reduced volume, suggesting that the upward momentum relies on short covering rather than active buying, necessitating caution against false breakout risks [2] - The OBV indicator shows the energy tide line oscillating in sync with prices, confirming the current state as a range fluctuation rather than a trending market [2] Group 3: Cross-Asset Technical Insights - The strengthening of the US dollar in the short term is suppressing the rebound potential of cryptocurrencies, but it does not alter the oscillating nature of Bitcoin and Ethereum, necessitating attention to the resistance at the 95 level of the US dollar index and its subsequent impact on the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate showed a slight increase of 0.03% on August 7, closing at 0.8064, indicating a period of consolidation in the market [1] Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF pair is currently in a phase of technical consolidation, with the Bollinger Bands indicating a narrowing bandwidth, suggesting reduced volatility and a balanced market between bulls and bears [1] - The middle band of the Bollinger Bands is positioned at approximately 0.7976, with the upper band at 0.8065 and the lower band at 0.7887, reflecting the current trading range [1] - The price approached the upper resistance level but failed to break through, indicating strong resistance above. A successful breach of 0.8065 could open further upward potential, targeting 0.8100 [1] - Key support levels to watch are at 0.8030 and the middle band; a drop below these levels may lead to a retest of the lower point at 0.7871 [1]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with a large accumulation of options contracts at the $3350 level, equivalent to 38 tons of gold [1] - An Asian client urgently withdrew 6 tons of physical gold bars, indicating heightened demand and urgency in the market [1] - The price of spot gold surged past $3340, with a rapid liquidation of short positions occurring within minutes [1] Group 2 - Technical indicators suggest a potential breakout in gold prices, with a MACD crossover and a narrow Bollinger Band indicating a "calm before the storm" [2] - A private fund's quantitative model predicts a significant price movement within the next twelve hours due to volatility compression [2] Group 3 - The Japanese government intervened in the currency market, utilizing $30 billion to prevent the yen's depreciation, which impacted gold prices [4] - The price of gold fluctuated dramatically, with a notable drop in the price of gold bars at local banks, reflecting market instability [4] Group 4 - The release of the U.S. non-farm payroll report showed stronger-than-expected job growth, leading to a shift in interest rate expectations and a spike in the dollar index [10] - Despite initial fears of a gold price collapse, a late-night tweet from President Trump caused a significant market reaction, resulting in a rebound in gold prices [10] Group 5 - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank purchasing gold for the eighth consecutive month, and Turkey's reserves rising by 142% year-on-year [12] - In May, global central banks collectively bought 24.8 tons of gold, indicating a strong trend towards gold accumulation [12]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices closed lower on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.94%, the S&P 500 down 0.79%, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.92% due to market sentiment affected by Trump's renewed tariff plans [1] - Investors opted for profit-taking ahead of the holiday, contributing to the decline in market indices [1] Technical Indicators - A widely watched market technical indicator has signaled a potential market "overheating," as the S&P 500 index has broken its upper Bollinger Band seven times in the past eight trading days [1] - Jason Goepfert from SentimenTrader noted that this phenomenon is particularly notable given the current historical high levels of the S&P 500, raising questions about whether it indicates extraordinary momentum or a typical "too fast" signal [1] - The Bollinger Bands, created by financial analyst John Bollinger in the 1980s, assess whether stock prices are in an "overbought" or "oversold" state by calculating the moving average and adding/subtracting two standard deviations [1] Historical Context - Historical data shows that whenever the S&P 500 triggers this signal at multi-year highs, the index tends to decline in the following week [2] - However, the medium to long-term outlook is mixed, with the S&P 500 having ten instances of rising over 5% and ten instances of falling over 5% within six months after triggering the signal [2] - Notably, only in 1966 and 2000 did such instances lead to bear markets [2] Impact of Tariff Plans - The market turmoil is also influenced by Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on exports from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, which has overshadowed hopes for an agreement to avoid such tariffs [2] - The initial proposal of "reciprocal tariffs" by Trump in April raised concerns on Wall Street about the potential negative impact on global trade and the U.S. economic recovery [2] - The Russell 2000 small-cap index experienced the largest decline, dropping 1.55% on Monday [2] Future Performance Expectations - Historical performance data indicates that after similar market conditions, the median return for the Russell 2000 over two months is +4.8%, while the S&P 500 shows a return of -0.7% [3] - Additionally, the Nasdaq has an 80% probability of positive returns after five months, compared to 68% for the S&P 500 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the spot gold market is currently exhibiting a weak trend, with prices retreating to the low point area from the previous night [1] - The price of gold is approaching a significant support level at 3307, which is identified as the strongest support zone based on multiple Bollinger Bands and important options reference points [1] - There is a need to monitor whether gold prices can stabilize at this support level; if it fails to hold, the next support is further away and weaker than the current support zone [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing competition around the 4100 mark for palm oil futures, indicating significant market activity and volatility [1] - The upper band of the Bollinger Bands is showing pressure, suggesting potential resistance levels in the market [1] - Despite the pressure from the upper band, there remains support for biodiesel, indicating a potential stabilizing factor for palm oil prices [1] Group 2 - The article raises questions about future market strategies and positioning in light of the current dynamics in palm oil futures [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the spot gold market experienced volatility following the U.S. CPI data release, leading to both bullish and bearish movements [1] - The analysis suggests that the resistance level to watch is around 3346, which includes pivot points, previous highs, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci levels [1] - If the price does not break above the 3346 resistance, the short-term outlook remains bearish, with a potential decline towards the support level around 3331 [1] Group 2 - A breakthrough above the 3346 resistance could signal a retest of the high points established after the data release [1]