艾玛·斯泰宾斯（Emma Stebbins，1815-1882）是19世纪美国最重要的雕塑家之一，也是首位获得纽约市 公共雕塑委托的女性艺术家。近日，纽约州亨廷顿赫克舍尔艺术博物馆举办了艾玛·斯泰宾斯个展"雕刻 历史"。从纽约中央公园标志性的贝塞斯达喷泉及《水之天使》雕像，到女演员库什曼的雕塑杰作，展 览以多件雕塑作品及文献史料，回顾其艺术生涯。 纽约州亨廷顿赫克舍尔艺术博物馆的艾玛·斯泰宾斯的回顾展"雕刻历史"是艾玛·斯泰宾斯的首个回顾 展，呈现了这位已被人遗忘的艺术家的生平细节。 福楼拜曾说："生活要有规律、有条理，这样才能在创作中展现出激情和独创性。"不过斯泰宾斯却是反 其道而行之。她的生活却充满冒险精神，极具现代感，而其塑造出的新古典主义风格雕塑规整有序。 展览现场 她创作于1860年的雕塑作品《食莲者》下落不明。食莲者是荷马史诗《奥德赛》中一位神话般的享乐主 义者。根据文献记载，作品《食莲者》是这位美国女雕塑家创作的第一件男性裸体雕塑，她以常春藤藤 蔓巧妙地遮挡住了关键部位。她于1873年落成的贝塞斯达喷泉及之上的《水之天使》雕像，则是纽约第 一座由女性艺术家设计的公共雕塑。博物馆首席策展人卡莉·伍 ...

布达佩斯中央市场对面马路不远处的路口，便是瓦茨街的尽头。瓦茨街是布达佩斯最繁华的步行商业街，北起弗洛斯马提广场，南至中央市场，全长约 600米，两侧多为18-19世纪建造的华美历史建筑，遍布各种品牌商店、餐厅和咖啡馆。 FOR B TRADITIONAL MARKET START I OHE To eg 4 1 and in 电 THE DELLE 1111 APE a 0 1 - SALE t 88 BUDAPEST it all 瓦茨街细节 瓦茨街一带是布达佩斯保存最完好的古典商业街区，沿街建筑各不相同，多半融合了新古典主义与折衷主义风格，外立面有各种各样的浮雕装饰和铸铁栏 杆。 瓦茨街所呈现的商业繁荣，是佩斯最真实的一面。相比安静的布达，佩斯承载了布达佩斯的大半商业繁华。 瓦茨街细节 占据布达佩斯1/3面积的佩斯，有着远比布达平坦的地势，城市化程度极高。它最初是凯尔特人的定居点，罗马人在布达建成阿昆库姆军事要塞之后，在 多瑙河对岸的佩斯区域建立了辅助营地。中世纪时的佩斯已是独立城市，1241年毁于入侵的蒙古人之手，不久后重建。1873年，它与布达和奥布达合并为 布达佩斯。 瓦茨街细节 也正是在合并之后， ...

近期有一种观点认为人民币汇率被明显低估，其主要论据是中国贸易顺差趋势上升或者中国同类商品价格明显低于美国（比如麦当劳的Big Mac）。这类 分析的共同点是从商品定价视角出发判断汇率是否合理，背后是新古典主义思维。在全球外汇交易规模远远超过贸易体量、资本流动波动大的时代，仍然 从商品价格视角来评估汇率无疑与现实差距较大。与此对应，（后）凯恩斯主义从资产价格的视角来分析汇率，不否认实体经济和经常项目的重要性，但 认为在现代金融体系下，资本流动和预期变化构成汇率波动的核心机制，这个思维与现实更为吻合。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 从（后）凯恩斯主义视角来看，我们认为金融周期是导致经常项目与汇率走势出现背离的重要因素，中美数据均显示这个现象。金融周期是指房价与信贷 互相加强而形成的长周期，其上行会压低经常项目但推升本币汇率，而金融周期下行则推升经常项目并抑制本币汇率。比如，过去几年中国处于金融周期 下行阶段，社会资源配置往高效率领域（比如高端制造业）倾斜，技术进步提速，支撑出口。此外，楼市调整导致以房地产为代表的非贸易品价格下降， 降低贸易品的中间投入成本，也促进了出口。同时，金融周期下行期，市 ...

Core Viewpoint - Insufficient demand is a significant challenge faced by countries with advanced production capacity and income levels, leading to various economic issues such as declining corporate revenues, reduced employment opportunities, and worsening social wealth [5][10][12]. Summary by Sections Demand Insufficiency - Demand insufficiency is described as a "disease of wealth," primarily affecting countries with high production capacity and income levels, while lower-income countries typically face supply shortages and inflation [5][28]. - The dangers of demand insufficiency are severe, potentially leading to acute economic collapse and long-term resource wastage if not addressed [5][12][19]. Understanding Demand Insufficiency - Understanding demand insufficiency requires analyzing four levels: economic development stage, triggers, market failures, and inadequate policy responses [26][28]. - Market failure is emphasized as a critical aspect in understanding demand insufficiency, influencing the choice of appropriate policy responses [5][10][19]. Policy Responses - Effective policy responses to demand insufficiency must meet three criteria: they must be external to market logic, target fast variables, and facilitate broad credit growth [40][41]. - Counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policies are recognized as standard and effective remedies for demand insufficiency, although they often face public skepticism [6][41]. Historical Context - Historical examples of prolonged demand insufficiency include the Great Depression in the 1920s and Japan's "lost two decades" from 1992 to 2012, both characterized by persistent economic challenges due to insufficient demand [10][11][12]. Economic Impact - The impact of demand insufficiency includes significant declines in corporate income and profitability, leading to increased bankruptcies and reduced investment [13][14]. - The overall wealth of society diminishes, with falling corporate profits resulting in lower asset valuations and real estate prices [14][15]. Broader Consequences - Demand insufficiency also leads to a deteriorating business environment, increased external trade disputes, worsening income distribution, and heightened financial risks [18][19]. - The phenomenon can create a self-reinforcing negative cycle, where reduced spending leads to lower incomes and further decreases in demand [32][33]. Conclusion - Addressing demand insufficiency requires a comprehensive understanding of its complexities and the implementation of targeted, effective policies that can break the cycle of decline [38][39].

Core Insights - The upcoming exhibition of artist Zhang Kai invites audiences to explore his unique artistic world, showcasing his dedication to art over the past two decades in his orderly studio in Beijing [1][2] - Zhang Kai's works are influenced by early Renaissance and medieval art, particularly the style of Vermeer, featuring small, simple, and soft compositions that replace traditional subjects with cats and rabbits, creating a noble and sacred atmosphere [1] - The "hollow gaze" of the cat and rabbit figures in his paintings reflects a contemporary system of emotions, addressing the silent resistance to the emotional excesses of modern society [1] Exhibition Details - Exhibition Duration: August 16 - September 21 [3] - Curator: Chen Yunyao [3] - Location: Triumph Gallery, 798 Art District, No. A05, Jiuxianqiao Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing [3]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in major currency exchange rates, particularly the depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the euro, have drawn significant market attention. The recent rebound of the dollar index and the "catch-up" of the RMB against the dollar are noteworthy trends [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - Historical data indicates that predicting exchange rate movements is challenging due to numerous influencing factors, including unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral elements [1]. - A comparison of the IMF's assessments of the US dollar's real effective exchange rate (REER) over the past 20 years reveals a notable divergence from actual changes in the dollar's REER [1]. - The RMB's exchange rate has shown volatility, with a significant reversal in trends observed in late 2013, despite market consensus predicting a shift to the "5 era" for the RMB against the dollar [1]. Group 2: Theoretical Frameworks - To better assess exchange rates, it is essential to move beyond mainstream analytical frameworks and adopt a new perspective that incorporates both neoclassical and post-Keynesian views [1]. - Neoclassical economics emphasizes the current account as the primary determinant of exchange rates, while post-Keynesian economics focuses on capital flows as the fundamental force affecting exchange rates [1]. - The increasing significance of capital flows and the volatility of foreign exchange transactions suggest that post-Keynesian thinking aligns more closely with current realities [1]. Group 3: US Dollar Dynamics - The divergence in views between White House economic advisor Milan, who believes the dollar is overvalued, and Treasury Secretary Basent, who aims to maintain a strong dollar, highlights differing perspectives on the dollar's role in the economy [2]. - The US has maintained a relatively stable current account deficit, but uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies have diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets, contributing to a decline in the dollar's value [2]. - Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index has dropped by over 10%, influenced by unpredictable trade policies and rising concerns over fiscal deficits [2]. Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Pressure - Trump's recent tariff announcements, which include high tariffs on key industries, could push the overall effective tariff rate in the US above 20%, adding pressure to the economy and inflation [3]. - The trend of debt monetization in the US is becoming more apparent, with projected budget deficits remaining high at around 6.5%-7% in the coming years [3]. - Increasing signs of fiscal intervention in monetary policy, as indicated by recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve, suggest a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment [3]. Group 5: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has appreciated against the dollar by 1.7% since the beginning of the year, but has depreciated by 8.9% against the euro during the same period [4]. - A comprehensive index of the RMB against a basket of currencies shows a cumulative depreciation of 5.3% since the start of the year, indicating that the RMB's appreciation against the dollar is primarily driven by dollar-specific factors [4]. - The RMB's exchange rate remains crucial for exports, as fluctuations against a basket of currencies can partially offset the impacts of tariff changes [4]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The RMB's exchange rate has been largely "passive" thus far, but future movements will depend on factors such as US-China relations and domestic economic conditions [5]. - If China's economic growth stabilizes and market confidence improves, a potential appreciation of the RMB against the dollar may continue in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving consensus around a weaker US dollar since April 2023, highlighting the complexities of predicting exchange rate movements due to various influencing factors, including differing views among US officials on the dollar's valuation and its implications for the economy [2][3][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The recent rebound in the US dollar index and the weakening of the euro raise questions about whether these trends are temporary or indicative of a structural reversal [2][3]. - The divergence in views among US officials, with some advocating for a weaker dollar to support manufacturing and others emphasizing the need for a strong dollar, reflects the ongoing debate about the dollar's role in the economy [3][9]. - The article suggests a shift from a neoclassical framework, which focuses on the current account as the main determinant of exchange rates, to a post-Keynesian perspective that emphasizes capital flows as the fundamental driver of currency valuation [2][10][19]. Group 2: Dollar's International Status - The dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency has provided the US with significant advantages, including improved financing conditions and a sustained trade deficit over the past 50 years [3][23]. - Concerns about US debt sustainability and inflation have led to a consensus that the dollar's international standing is under threat, with market reactions indicating a potential decline in confidence [3][33]. - The article notes that while the dollar has weakened, the extent of this decline and its long-term implications remain uncertain, as no major events have yet tested the dollar's status in the international monetary system [32][53]. Group 3: Euro's Position - The euro has appreciated approximately 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, driven by market expectations and a relative improvement in the eurozone's financial accounts [4][63]. - Despite the euro's recent strength, the eurozone faces significant challenges, including high debt levels, innovation deficits, and geopolitical risks that could hinder its long-term economic prospects [4][74]. - The article emphasizes that while the euro's position may improve marginally in the short term, the underlying structural issues within the eurozone could limit its ability to capitalize on a weaker dollar [4][74].

Core Viewpoint - The exhibition "Harmony in the Frontier, National Songs Together" showcases over 300 artworks themed around the border regions of Xinjiang and Tibet, highlighting the significance of these regions in Chinese art history [1] Group 1: Artwork Significance - The painting "Tajik Bride" by Jin Shangyi, created in 1983, remains a powerful representation of artistic expression, capturing the essence of Tajik culture and the artist's dedication to beauty [2][3] - The artwork features two versions, one with three rows of beads and another with four, symbolizing the artist's pursuit of perfection and emotional depth in his work [2] Group 2: Artistic Techniques and Influence - Jin Shangyi's approach combines Western volumetric techniques with Eastern aesthetics, resulting in a unique style that emphasizes the weight and richness of the subject matter [3][4] - The painting's use of light and shadow, along with its color palette, reflects a departure from traditional Chinese oil painting, marking a significant evolution in the medium [3][4] Group 3: Market Impact and Historical Context - The four-row bead version of "Tajik Bride" was auctioned for 85.1 million yuan in 2013, setting a record for the artist and highlighting the growing market value of contemporary Chinese oil paintings [4][5] - This auction not only signifies the painting's artistic importance but also its role in the broader context of Chinese art history, representing a turning point for new classical art in China [4][5]