Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in major currency exchange rates, particularly the depreciation of the US dollar and appreciation of the euro, have drawn significant market attention. The recent rebound of the dollar index and the "catch-up" of the RMB against the dollar are noteworthy trends [1][4]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Rate Analysis - Historical data indicates that predicting exchange rate movements is challenging due to numerous influencing factors, including unilateral, bilateral, and multilateral elements [1]. - A comparison of the IMF's assessments of the US dollar's real effective exchange rate (REER) over the past 20 years reveals a notable divergence from actual changes in the dollar's REER [1]. - The RMB's exchange rate has shown volatility, with a significant reversal in trends observed in late 2013, despite market consensus predicting a shift to the "5 era" for the RMB against the dollar [1]. Group 2: Theoretical Frameworks - To better assess exchange rates, it is essential to move beyond mainstream analytical frameworks and adopt a new perspective that incorporates both neoclassical and post-Keynesian views [1]. - Neoclassical economics emphasizes the current account as the primary determinant of exchange rates, while post-Keynesian economics focuses on capital flows as the fundamental force affecting exchange rates [1]. - The increasing significance of capital flows and the volatility of foreign exchange transactions suggest that post-Keynesian thinking aligns more closely with current realities [1]. Group 3: US Dollar Dynamics - The divergence in views between White House economic advisor Milan, who believes the dollar is overvalued, and Treasury Secretary Basent, who aims to maintain a strong dollar, highlights differing perspectives on the dollar's role in the economy [2]. - The US has maintained a relatively stable current account deficit, but uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies have diminished the attractiveness of dollar assets, contributing to a decline in the dollar's value [2]. - Since the beginning of the year, the dollar index has dropped by over 10%, influenced by unpredictable trade policies and rising concerns over fiscal deficits [2]. Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Pressure - Trump's recent tariff announcements, which include high tariffs on key industries, could push the overall effective tariff rate in the US above 20%, adding pressure to the economy and inflation [3]. - The trend of debt monetization in the US is becoming more apparent, with projected budget deficits remaining high at around 6.5%-7% in the coming years [3]. - Increasing signs of fiscal intervention in monetary policy, as indicated by recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve, suggest a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy environment [3]. Group 5: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - The RMB has appreciated against the dollar by 1.7% since the beginning of the year, but has depreciated by 8.9% against the euro during the same period [4]. - A comprehensive index of the RMB against a basket of currencies shows a cumulative depreciation of 5.3% since the start of the year, indicating that the RMB's appreciation against the dollar is primarily driven by dollar-specific factors [4]. - The RMB's exchange rate remains crucial for exports, as fluctuations against a basket of currencies can partially offset the impacts of tariff changes [4]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The RMB's exchange rate has been largely "passive" thus far, but future movements will depend on factors such as US-China relations and domestic economic conditions [5]. - If China's economic growth stabilizes and market confidence improves, a potential appreciation of the RMB against the dollar may continue in the short term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving consensus around a weaker US dollar since April 2023, highlighting the complexities of predicting exchange rate movements due to various influencing factors, including differing views among US officials on the dollar's valuation and its implications for the economy [2][3][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The recent rebound in the US dollar index and the weakening of the euro raise questions about whether these trends are temporary or indicative of a structural reversal [2][3]. - The divergence in views among US officials, with some advocating for a weaker dollar to support manufacturing and others emphasizing the need for a strong dollar, reflects the ongoing debate about the dollar's role in the economy [3][9]. - The article suggests a shift from a neoclassical framework, which focuses on the current account as the main determinant of exchange rates, to a post-Keynesian perspective that emphasizes capital flows as the fundamental driver of currency valuation [2][10][19]. Group 2: Dollar's International Status - The dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency has provided the US with significant advantages, including improved financing conditions and a sustained trade deficit over the past 50 years [3][23]. - Concerns about US debt sustainability and inflation have led to a consensus that the dollar's international standing is under threat, with market reactions indicating a potential decline in confidence [3][33]. - The article notes that while the dollar has weakened, the extent of this decline and its long-term implications remain uncertain, as no major events have yet tested the dollar's status in the international monetary system [32][53]. Group 3: Euro's Position - The euro has appreciated approximately 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, driven by market expectations and a relative improvement in the eurozone's financial accounts [4][63]. - Despite the euro's recent strength, the eurozone faces significant challenges, including high debt levels, innovation deficits, and geopolitical risks that could hinder its long-term economic prospects [4][74]. - The article emphasizes that while the euro's position may improve marginally in the short term, the underlying structural issues within the eurozone could limit its ability to capitalize on a weaker dollar [4][74].

靳尚谊 塔吉克新娘 油画 1983 60x50cm 中国美术馆藏 1983年，靳尚谊在创作激情中连续完成了两幅《塔吉克新娘》。第一幅三排珠链版本甫一诞生便惊艳画 坛，入选"中央美术学院教师作品展"后被中国美术馆永久珍藏。紧随其后完成的四排珠链版本，在细节 上更显丰盈，却因1984年赴日参加"现代中国洋画展"（由日本 "日中友好会馆" 等机构主办）而被日本 藏家珍藏，消失在公众视野近三十年,直至 2013 年嘉德秋拍才重新现身。 （原标题：从新疆西藏美术作品展上看靳尚谊的《塔吉克新娘》） 中国美术馆1-11展厅的灯光下人头攒动，300余件边疆主题作品在"和美边疆 民族同歌——新疆西藏美术 作品展"中交织成一部无声史诗。黄胄笔下的维族少年策马奔向《上学途中》，扬起尘土的生命力；吴 作人水墨泼洒的《戈壁滩》苍凉如铁；而西藏展区里，韩书力《毛主席派人来》的恢弘叙事与青年画家 笔下的雪山晨曦遥相呼应，一幅幅熟悉的作品、熟悉的艺术家名字扑面而来。 在一幅尺幅仅60×50厘米的油画前，总是聚集着深深凝视着的人群。深黑背景中，头披红纱的塔吉克新 娘低垂眼睑，嘴角藏着一丝克制的喜悦——靳尚谊1983年的《塔吉克新娘》以静谧的力 ...