近期特朗普试图加强对美联储的控制，包括推动罢免理事Lisa Cook，这一举动引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。欧洲央行行长拉加德警告称，美联储失 去独立性将对全球构成"严重危险"。 高盛最新警告称，如果美联储公信力受损，投资者仅需将极小部分美债持仓转向黄金，金价就可能飙升至每盎司近5000美元的惊人水平。高盛基线预测 为2026年中金价升至4000美元，尾部风险情境下达到4500美元，极端情况下逼近5000美元关口。 高盛最新警告称，如果美联储公信力受损，投资者仅需将极小部分美债持仓转向黄金，金价就可能飙升至每盎司近5000美元的惊人水平。 周四，高盛分析师团队在最新报告中表示，美联储独立性受损的情形下，市场将面临通胀上升、股债双跌以及美元储备货币地位削弱的多重冲击。相比 之下，黄金作为不依赖机构信任的价值储存工具，将成为投资者的避风港。 高盛在报告中提出三种金价情景：基线预测为2026年中升至4000美元，尾部风险情境下达到4500美元，而极端情况下若仅1%私人持有美债资金流入 黄金市场，金价将逼近5000美元关口。 黄金今年已成为表现最强劲的主要大宗商品之一，涨幅超过30%并于本周初创出历史新高。央行增持、美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the differences between the European Union's "Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation" (MiCA) and the United States' "Guidance and Establishment of a National Innovation Act for Stablecoins" (GENIUS), highlighting significant directional disparities in their approaches to stablecoin policies, particularly regarding the use of foreign and domestic stablecoins, reserve asset allocation, and illegal financial activity prevention [2][3]. Group 1: Overall Framework - Both the GENIUS Act and MiCA Regulation share a similar overall framework, which includes defining stablecoin functions, issuer admission, operational regulation, reserve asset investment, customer redemption oversight, and anti-money laundering measures [5]. Group 2: Functional Definition - Both acts define stablecoins as payment tools and prohibit issuers from paying interest to holders. The GENIUS Act classifies "payment stablecoins" as digital assets for payment or settlement, while MiCA distinguishes between Electronic Money Tokens (EMT) and Asset-Referenced Tokens (ART), both requiring issuers to ensure holders can redeem at face value without interest [6]. Group 3: Issuer Admission - Both regulations require issuers to be registered entities in their respective jurisdictions. The GENIUS Act mandates that payment stablecoin issuers must be U.S. registered entities meeting specific regulatory standards, while MiCA requires ART issuers to establish a legal entity in the EU and obtain authorization from their home regulatory authority [7]. Group 4: Operational Management - Both acts impose capital and risk management requirements on stablecoin issuers, referencing regulations applicable to payment institutions and banks. The GENIUS Act requires compliance with U.S. federal and state capital, liquidity, and risk management rules, while MiCA specifies information disclosure, governance, and risk management procedures for issuers [8]. Group 5: Usage of Stablecoins - The U.S. has no explicit restrictions on the types and usage of stablecoins, reflecting the dominant position of the U.S. dollar in global reserves and payments. In contrast, the EU imposes limitations on the types and scope of stablecoins, influenced by different considerations regarding currency sovereignty [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving consensus around a weaker US dollar since April 2023, highlighting the complexities of predicting exchange rate movements due to various influencing factors, including differing views among US officials on the dollar's valuation and its implications for the economy [2][3][4]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The recent rebound in the US dollar index and the weakening of the euro raise questions about whether these trends are temporary or indicative of a structural reversal [2][3]. - The divergence in views among US officials, with some advocating for a weaker dollar to support manufacturing and others emphasizing the need for a strong dollar, reflects the ongoing debate about the dollar's role in the economy [3][9]. - The article suggests a shift from a neoclassical framework, which focuses on the current account as the main determinant of exchange rates, to a post-Keynesian perspective that emphasizes capital flows as the fundamental driver of currency valuation [2][10][19]. Group 2: Dollar's International Status - The dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency has provided the US with significant advantages, including improved financing conditions and a sustained trade deficit over the past 50 years [3][23]. - Concerns about US debt sustainability and inflation have led to a consensus that the dollar's international standing is under threat, with market reactions indicating a potential decline in confidence [3][33]. - The article notes that while the dollar has weakened, the extent of this decline and its long-term implications remain uncertain, as no major events have yet tested the dollar's status in the international monetary system [32][53]. Group 3: Euro's Position - The euro has appreciated approximately 14% against the dollar since the beginning of the year, driven by market expectations and a relative improvement in the eurozone's financial accounts [4][63]. - Despite the euro's recent strength, the eurozone faces significant challenges, including high debt levels, innovation deficits, and geopolitical risks that could hinder its long-term economic prospects [4][74]. - The article emphasizes that while the euro's position may improve marginally in the short term, the underlying structural issues within the eurozone could limit its ability to capitalize on a weaker dollar [4][74].

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, significantly down from previous estimates, primarily due to tariff policies leading to increased imports and inflation concerns [1][3] - Analysts predict that inflation rates in the U.S. will surge starting June, with a 40% probability of the economy entering a recession in the second half of the year [3][4] Tariff Impact - The current effective tariff rate in the U.S. hovers around 15%, with a potential GDP growth slowdown of 0.25%-0.75% for every 5%-10% increase in tariffs [3][4] - The inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to manifest in the latter half of the year, raising concerns about economic pain [3][4] Federal Reserve Dynamics - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that unprecedented tariff policies complicate inflation predictions and decisions on interest rate cuts [5][7] - Trump is reportedly seeking a "compliant" successor to Powell, with potential candidates including Kevin Walsh and others, aiming to influence monetary policy ahead of Powell's term ending [7][9] Dollar's International Standing - The U.S. dollar index has depreciated over 10% this year, with predictions of an additional 5.7% decline in the next 12 months due to economic uncertainties and geopolitical issues [12][14] - There is a structural decline in international investors' appetite for U.S. Treasury bonds, with the debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 123%, raising concerns about the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The position of the US dollar as a reserve currency in international financing, payments, and trade transactions is unlikely to be challenged in the short term, but the role of the euro could gradually expand, especially if a "more European" approach is achieved [1] Group 1 - The US dollar maintains its dominance in international financing and trade transactions [1] - The euro's role could increase over time with the implementation of a more integrated European strategy [1]

特朗普上任以来"退群"动作不断，已经先后退出了《巴黎气候协定》和世界卫生组织。现在，一个严峻 的问题摆在眼前：国际货币基金组织（IMF）会是下一个吗？ 曾任美国财政部负责国际事务的助理部长Edwin Truman 21日在英国《金融时报》发表文章认为，如果 美国真的退出IMF，这将是一个重大的自我伤害行为。意味着美国将失去在全球金融治理中的话语权与 影响力。 更为关键的是，IMF的运作大多以美元为基础，资金流入国际市场也主要以美元计价。若美国退出，美 元将不得不从SDR篮子中剔除，其他主要货币如欧元，可能迎头赶上，甚至挑战美元的霸主地位。 "简而言之，退出IMF将是一个规模巨大的经济、金融和政治错误。" 值得一提的是，IMF春季会议将于4月25-26日在华盛顿举行，介时特朗普如何看待华盛顿未来在IMF和 世界银行等机构中的角色，或许也将变得更加明朗。 退出IMF：史诗级的战略自损行为 统计显示，过去四年国际对基金的需求已下降了5.6%。Truman认为，如果美国退出IMF，这一趋势将 加速。美元将被排除在基金使用范围之外，而没有一个国家还会持有一种无法用于IMF交易、由一个放 弃国际金融责任的国家发行的货币资 ...

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by Trump are expected to significantly harm the U.S. economy, with the average tariff rate on all imported goods projected to rise from 2.5% in 2024 to 16.5% in 2025, the highest since 1937, leading to an estimated decline in imports by approximately $800 billion [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs has caused U.S. companies to delay major investment decisions, reflecting a broader hesitation in both corporate and consumer spending due to unpredictable economic conditions [3][4] - Major technology companies, including Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft, have seen a combined market value loss of $1 trillion as a result of increased costs and supply chain pressures stemming from the tariffs [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Investor and consumer confidence has been shaken, leading to a cautious approach in capital investments and spending, which in turn has contributed to a slowdown in economic activity [3] - The likelihood of a recession in the U.S. has increased, with JPMorgan raising the probability of a recession in 2025 from 40% to 60%, and other indicators reflecting a similar trend [5] - The U.S. Treasury market has experienced significant sell-offs, with the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rising sharply, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. debt as a safe haven [9] Group 3: Dollar's International Standing - The tariffs are undermining the credibility of the U.S. and diminishing global demand for the dollar, particularly as countries like China may seek to reduce their dollar reserves in favor of alternatives like gold [8] - The dollar's dominance in global trade and finance is being challenged, with its share of global foreign exchange reserves at 58% and 64% of global debt denominated in dollars, raising concerns about its future stability [6][7] - The potential for a shift away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency is increasing, as countries may seek alternatives due to the perceived risks associated with U.S. economic policies and political actions [10]