作 者丨郑玮 编 辑丨周上祺 近日，1—5月国民经济运行数据发布，消费、工业、出口等板块表现受到市场关注。 从数据表现上看，5月消费强势领跑，工业、出口则呈现韧性中放缓趋势。其中，5月社会消费 品零售总额同比增长6.4%，实现今年以来月度最高增速，增幅跑赢出口、投资。与"高歌猛 进"的消费相对的是，5月规上工业增加值、货物出口总额同比增速均有所放缓。 表现亮眼的消费主要受到什么因素驱动？"国补"政策效应能否长期持续？下半年中国出口市场 将呈现何种走势？还有哪些潜在风险需要注意？围绕市场关注议题，21世纪经济报道专访广发 证券首席经济学家郭磊。 郭磊认为，在"两新"政策带动下，目前消费仍处于政策红利期，未来除财政补贴外，促消费政 策在收入端、金融端、社会端等方面也仍然存在很多政策空间，预计下半年"两新"和服务类消 费带动下的消费仍将保持相对活跃状态。 同时，郭磊分析表示，受逆全球化关税政策、建筑业降幅扩大等影响，下半年出口-制造业条 线或将有所放缓，对冲方式包括推动建筑业逆周期，加快基建开工和实物工作量，以及推动消 费和服务业发展，用消费动能部分替代出口动能，以内需的确定性应对外需的不确定性。 （广发证券首席经 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance Overview - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year, outperforming exports and investments [1] - The industrial added value and total goods exports both showed a slowdown in growth, indicating resilience but a deceleration trend [1][5] - The overall economic growth momentum has improved, with actual GDP growth rebounding from 4.6% in Q3 of last year to 5.4% in Q1 of this year [2] Group 2: Consumer Sector Insights - The strong consumer growth is driven by several factors, including improved income expectations and reduced mortgage pressure due to lower interest rates [2] - The "Two New" policies are still in a concentrated release phase, contributing to the growth in retail sales of appliances and communication equipment [2][3] - The government has allocated 300 billion yuan for long-term special bonds to support consumption, with over 160 billion yuan already disbursed, indicating ongoing policy support [3] Group 3: Industrial Sector Analysis - The industrial added value grew by 5.8% year-on-year in May, reflecting a resilient but slowing trend [5] - The slowdown in exports, influenced by global tariff policies and a decline in the construction sector, has affected industrial production schedules [5][7] - High-tech manufacturing sectors continue to show growth, supported by China's manufacturing scale and efficiency advantages [6] Group 4: Export Market Dynamics - Despite a slowdown, exports remain resilient, with significant growth in exports to the EU (12.0%) and Africa (33.3%) in May [8] - The diversification of export markets has mitigated the impact of reduced exports to the US, which now accounts for only 9.1% of total exports [8] - High-end manufacturing products like automobiles and integrated circuits are maintaining strong export growth, contributing to overall export resilience [8] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - The export-manufacturing sector is expected to slow down in the second half of the year, with construction and service sectors anticipated to provide some counterbalance [7][10] - The actual GDP growth rate may slightly decline in the second half but is still projected to achieve around 5% for the year [11] - Policies aimed at enhancing nominal GDP growth and addressing supply-demand imbalances are likely to be prioritized moving forward [11][12]