Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by various macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve officials' hawkish statements, the end of the U.S. government shutdown, and ongoing global uncertainties, which may support gold prices in the medium to long term [1][5][6]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - As of November 14, the London spot gold price closed at $4,082.16 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of $81.87 per ounce since November 7, representing a 2.05% rise [1]. - Gold prices experienced volatility, reaching a high of $4,245.22 and a low of $3,997.20 during the week [1]. - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced the short-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy shows resilience, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow indicating a 4.0% growth rate for Q3, although government shutdowns may affect data accuracy [2]. - Consumer spending remains stable, with a 3.4% annualized growth rate in personal consumption and a slight increase in retail sales [2]. - The employment market shows a slight decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating stability [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have expressed concerns about inflation, leading to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations for December [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from 70% to below 50%, influenced by internal voting tendencies within the FOMC [3]. - The Fed's decision-making process is shifting towards a more collective approach rather than being dominated by the chair [3]. Group 4: Global Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold, with a net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 30% increase from the previous quarter [4]. - Brazil and South Korea have made significant gold purchases, with South Korea signaling plans to increase its gold reserves for the first time since 2013 [4]. - China's central bank has also been increasing its gold reserves for twelve consecutive months, reaching 7,409 million ounces by the end of October [4]. Group 5: Long-term Outlook for Gold - In the long term, the demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to rise due to challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system and increasing geopolitical tensions [6][7]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally may position gold as a new pricing anchor, potentially enhancing its upward momentum [7]. - The Fed's current easing cycle may be prolonged due to resilient employment and inflation, providing a favorable environment for gold investments [7].

作 者丨郑玮 编 辑丨周上祺 近日，1—5月国民经济运行数据发布，消费、工业、出口等板块表现受到市场关注。 从数据表现上看，5月消费强势领跑，工业、出口则呈现韧性中放缓趋势。其中，5月社会消费 品零售总额同比增长6.4%，实现今年以来月度最高增速，增幅跑赢出口、投资。与"高歌猛 进"的消费相对的是，5月规上工业增加值、货物出口总额同比增速均有所放缓。 表现亮眼的消费主要受到什么因素驱动？"国补"政策效应能否长期持续？下半年中国出口市场 将呈现何种走势？还有哪些潜在风险需要注意？围绕市场关注议题，21世纪经济报道专访广发 证券首席经济学家郭磊。 郭磊认为，在"两新"政策带动下，目前消费仍处于政策红利期，未来除财政补贴外，促消费政 策在收入端、金融端、社会端等方面也仍然存在很多政策空间，预计下半年"两新"和服务类消 费带动下的消费仍将保持相对活跃状态。 同时，郭磊分析表示，受逆全球化关税政策、建筑业降幅扩大等影响，下半年出口-制造业条 线或将有所放缓，对冲方式包括推动建筑业逆周期，加快基建开工和实物工作量，以及推动消 费和服务业发展，用消费动能部分替代出口动能，以内需的确定性应对外需的不确定性。 （广发证券首席经 ...