Core Insights - The central point of the article is the release of the People's Bank of China's financial data report for September 2025, indicating various trends in monetary supply and social financing that reflect the economic activity and consumer demand in the country [1]. Monetary Supply - As of the end of September, the M2 balance reached 335.38 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 8.4%, which is a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The M1 balance stood at 113.15 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, marking an increase of 1.2 percentage points compared to the last month [1]. - M0 experienced a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [1]. Social Financing and Loans - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing amounted to 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1]. - The increase in RMB loans for the first three quarters was 14.75 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 22.71 trillion yuan [1]. M1-M2 Differential - The narrowing of the M1-M2 differential continued, now at -1.2%, driven by the rising growth rate of M1 [1]. - The recent recovery in M1 growth is attributed to both the low base effect from the previous year and the activation of corporate and household time deposits [1]. - Analysts view the convergence of the M1-M2 differential as a positive signal, indicating increased business activity and a rebound in personal investment and consumption demand [1].

Core Insights - The central bank's financial data report for July 2025 indicates a significant increase in monetary supply and social financing, reflecting improved market confidence and economic activity [1] Monetary Supply - As of the end of July, M2 balance reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - M1 balance stood at 111.06 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, up by 1 percentage point from last month [1] - M0 balance experienced a year-on-year growth of 11.8% [1] Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first seven months of 2025 was 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - In July, the social financing increment was 1.13 trillion yuan, exceeding last year's figure by 361.3 billion yuan [1] Loans and Deposits - During the first seven months, new RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan [1] - New RMB deposits rose by 18.44 trillion yuan [1] Efficiency of Fund Circulation - The difference in growth rates between M1 and M2 was 3.2 percentage points, significantly narrowing compared to the peak in September of the previous year, indicating improved fund circulation efficiency [1] - Experts suggest that the narrowing "scissors difference" between M1 and M2 reflects enhanced liquidity and market confidence, aligning with the trend of economic recovery [1]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the financial sector, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that new RMB loans in May 2025 amounted to 620 billion, which is lower than market expectations of approximately 800 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion [1][2]. - Social financing (社融) in May 2025 increased by 2.29 trillion, surpassing market expectations of about 2.05 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 227.1 billion, primarily driven by government and corporate bonds [1][2]. - M1 growth rate rebounded to 2.3% in May, a significant increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while M2 growth rate was 7.9%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [1][4][6]. - Total deposits in May 2025 increased by 2.18 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion, mainly from corporate and fiscal deposits [1][2]. Summary by Sections New RMB Loans - In May 2025, new RMB loans totaled 620 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion, primarily due to a decline in corporate medium to long-term loans [1][2]. - Short-term loans for enterprises increased by 1,100 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 2,300 billion [2]. Social Financing - New social financing reached 2.29 trillion in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 2,271 billion, mainly from government bonds and corporate bonds [1][2]. - Government bond issuance was 1.46 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,367 billion [1][2]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth rate was recorded at 2.3%, while M2 growth rate stood at 7.9%, indicating stable trends in monetary aggregates [1][4][6]. - The report anticipates that the growth rates of monetary aggregates and social financing will stabilize and potentially rebound in the third quarter of 2025 due to low base effects [1]. Deposits - New RMB deposits in May 2025 were 2.18 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 5,000 billion, driven by corporate and fiscal deposits [1][2].