Core Insights - The total issuance of local government bonds in China for 2025 has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, marking the first time this annual scale has crossed the 10 trillion yuan threshold [1][3] - The increase in local bond issuance is seen as a necessary measure for stabilizing growth and managing long-term debt risks, emphasizing the need to balance growth and risk prevention [1][3] Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - As of December 2, 2025, the net financing amount of local government bonds is approximately 7.1 trillion yuan, with total issuance around 10.1 trillion yuan, including 2.55 trillion yuan in general bonds and 7.56 trillion yuan in special bonds [1] - The issuance scale for local government bonds has been notably high in 2025, with approximately 2.8 trillion yuan, 2.6 trillion yuan, and 3 trillion yuan issued in the first three quarters respectively [1] Group 2: Special Bonds and Project Financing - The issuance of new special bonds is accelerating, which is expected to facilitate the advancement of major local projects and increase tangible work output [3] - The planned issuance of local government bonds for December 2025 totals 1.05 billion yuan, with 213 million yuan allocated for new special bonds, a significant decrease compared to the previous year [3] - The new special bond issuance is expected to reach a record high, taking into account the "negative list" management of fund allocation and the saturation of traditional infrastructure projects [3] Group 3: Future Projections - For 2026, the limit for new local government special bonds is anticipated to reach 5 trillion yuan, with specific allocations for debt repayment, land acquisition, and project construction [4] - The special bond quota for debt repayment is projected at 1.6 trillion yuan, while the quota for project construction is expected to increase by 1 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated, and coal mine over - production inspections have boosted market sentiment [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term, with a decline in global shipments and a decrease in iron - making water production [1]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend in the short term. The over - production inspection of coal mines affects the supply side, and the profit of coke enterprises has been repaired, with stable demand [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend in the short term. Market news has a certain impact on market sentiment, but has not yet affected supply and demand [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The price of rebar futures rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3233 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. Spot prices also increased. The issuance of new local government special bonds accelerated, and coal mine over - production inspections boosted sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2509 rose to 798.5 yuan/ton, up 1%. Global shipments decreased, iron - making water production declined, and port inventories decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1035 yuan/ton, up 2.93%. The over - production inspection of coal mines affected the supply side, and coke enterprises still had certain restocking needs. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1634.5 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. After the fifth price increase of coke, the profit of coke enterprises was further repaired, and demand was stable. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6018 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. Market news had a certain impact on sentiment, but "anti - involution" had not affected supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating with support at the bottom [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5716 yuan/ton, up 1.03%. The cost increased, and supply continued to rise. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of various contracts such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, down 6.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 127.0, down 9.0 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various varieties increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Shanghai rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Profits such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit increased. Cross - variety spreads such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio also changed [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., over different time periods [19][20][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., over different time periods [27][29][31]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: It includes spread trend charts of cross - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Rebar Profits**: It provides profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional expertise [54][55].

自今年4月以来，新增地方政府专项债券（下称"新增专项债"）的发行速度逐月加快，发行规模 在7月创下年内新高。 责编：李丹 校对： 王锦程 版权声明 考虑到近年各地的新增专项债发行工作基本在四季度前完成，且7月30日召开的中央政治局会议要求"加快 政府债券发行使用"，市场机构普遍预计新增专项债将在三季度加快发行节奏，7月新增专项债发行提速则 进一步印证市场预期。 新增专项债作为基建投资的重要资金来源，其加速发行将为重大项目提供更多资金支持。根据今年新增专 项债限额测算，8月至12月各地尚有超1.6万亿元额度可用。上海财经大学中国公共财政研究院副教授汪峰 向记者指出，随着新增专项债发行进度的加快，下半年基建投资增速有望提升至8%至9%。 "今年财政政策定调更加积极，随着存量政策组合效应显现，投资资金保障和项目支撑将会继续改善。"浙 商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博向记者表示，下半年基建增速的持续性还需关注超长期特别国债和中央预 算内投资的支持力度和方向。 较大力度的政府债券供给，还将对社会融资规模形成明显支撑。据中邮证券固收首席分析师梁伟超预计， 7月至8月将是下半年政府债净融资高点，单月净融资金额分别可达1.29万 ...