新增地方政府专项债券

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黑色商品日报-20250806
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 05:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term trend of steel products is expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated, and coal mine over - production inspections have boosted market sentiment [1]. - Iron ore prices are expected to show an oscillating trend in the short term, with a decline in global shipments and a decrease in iron - making water production [1]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend in the short term. The over - production inspection of coal mines affects the supply side, and the profit of coke enterprises has been repaired, with stable demand [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend in the short term. Market news has a certain impact on market sentiment, but has not yet affected supply and demand [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The price of rebar futures rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3233 yuan/ton, up 0.91%. Spot prices also increased. The issuance of new local government special bonds accelerated, and coal mine over - production inspections boosted sentiment. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating and strengthening [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract i2509 rose to 798.5 yuan/ton, up 1%. Global shipments decreased, iron - making water production declined, and port inventories decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1035 yuan/ton, up 2.93%. The over - production inspection of coal mines affected the supply side, and coke enterprises still had certain restocking needs. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures price rose, with the 2509 contract closing at 1634.5 yuan/ton, up 1.21%. After the fifth price increase of coke, the profit of coke enterprises was further repaired, and demand was stable. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 6018 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. Market news had a certain impact on sentiment, but "anti - involution" had not affected supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating with support at the bottom [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price oscillated and strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5716 yuan/ton, up 1.03%. The cost increased, and supply continued to rise. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range oscillating [1][3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads of various contracts such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., showed different changes. For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 73.0, down 6.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 127.0, down 9.0 [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various varieties increased to varying degrees. For example, the price of Shanghai rebar increased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Profits such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit increased. Cross - variety spreads such as the coil - rebar spread and the rebar - iron ore ratio also changed [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., over different time periods [19][20][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc., over different time periods [27][29][31]. - **Cross - variety Contract Spreads**: It includes spread trend charts of cross - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc., from 2020 to 2025 [42][43]. - **Rebar Profits**: It provides profit trend charts of rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional expertise [54][55].
超6000亿元!7月新增专项债发行规模创年内新高
证券时报· 2025-08-04 23:50
自今年4月以来,新增地方政府专项债券(下称"新增专项债")的发行速度逐月加快,发行规模 在7月创下年内新高。 责编:李丹 校对: 王锦程 版权声明 考虑到近年各地的新增专项债发行工作基本在四季度前完成,且7月30日召开的中央政治局会议要求"加快 政府债券发行使用",市场机构普遍预计新增专项债将在三季度加快发行节奏,7月新增专项债发行提速则 进一步印证市场预期。 新增专项债作为基建投资的重要资金来源,其加速发行将为重大项目提供更多资金支持。根据今年新增专 项债限额测算,8月至12月各地尚有超1.6万亿元额度可用。上海财经大学中国公共财政研究院副教授汪峰 向记者指出,随着新增专项债发行进度的加快,下半年基建投资增速有望提升至8%至9%。 "今年财政政策定调更加积极,随着存量政策组合效应显现,投资资金保障和项目支撑将会继续改善。"浙 商证券宏观联席首席分析师廖博向记者表示,下半年基建增速的持续性还需关注超长期特别国债和中央预 算内投资的支持力度和方向。 较大力度的政府债券供给,还将对社会融资规模形成明显支撑。据中邮证券固收首席分析师梁伟超预计, 7月至8月将是下半年政府债净融资高点,单月净融资金额分别可达1.29万 ...