金属石化 迈向黄金新时代 - 2025 年中金公司中期投资策 略会 20250630 摘要 黄金的表现与宏观经济环境密切相关。自 2022 年提出新宏观范式以来，全球 进入了高通胀、高利率、高波动的新阶段，这一变化推动了实物资产的价值上 升。2023 年 8 月，我们预测未来几年利率中枢和黄金价格中枢将持续上升， 美元未来几年面临持续贬值压力，原因包括特朗普政府的制造业回归政 策、贸易赤字缩减以及解决债务压力的需求。新兴信用品种如金银铜成 为避险选择，将进一步推动这些实物资产价值上升。各主要国家都面临 类似的债务压力，信用货币普遍存在贬值风险。 中美再平衡的实现路径包括关税、汇率和财政。关税空间收缩，财政力 度加大导致失衡加剧，汇率价格调整成为硬约束。美元贬值可通过市场 化行为实现，无需协议干预。4 月 2 号以来，美元跌幅主要发生在亚洲 时段，验证了资金在美国和亚洲之间存在再平衡。 黄金市场长期走势受美国通胀中枢和财政赤字中枢影响。看空美国通胀 和财政力度可能结束黄金牛市，反之则牛市远未结束。过去 50 年黄金 实际价格基本上由美国财政赤字解释，黄金可以抗国家信用。中国等新 兴市场国家未来还有很大的增持黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic and financial implications of Trump's "Great Reset," focusing on the need to address wealth inequality and high government debt through a rebalancing of capital structures and inflationary measures [3][4]. Group 1: Trump's Economic Framework - Trump is seen as attempting to tackle two fundamental issues: the significant wealth gap and the historically high government debt burden [3][4]. - The "Great Reset" aims to adjust the relationship between industrial and financial capital, promoting a shift from financialization to re-industrialization [4][18]. - Without substantial productivity improvements, the policy path is likely to lead to global capital rebalancing, inflationary pressures, dollar depreciation, and financial repression [4][31]. Group 2: Debt and Financial Market Dynamics - The U.S. government debt held by the public is approaching 100% of GDP and is projected to rise to 117% over the next decade, with a persistent deficit rate around 6% [22][26]. - The article highlights the potential for liquidity "drain" and increased volatility in financial markets following the resolution of the debt ceiling, which could trigger risks for high-leverage and credit investors [4][28]. - The anticipated supply shock of U.S. Treasury bonds post-debt ceiling resolution may lead to rising interest rates and liquidity challenges, exacerbating risks in the credit market [28][30]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Asset Reallocation - The article predicts the end of the "U.S. exceptionalism" narrative in the stock market since 2012, with European and emerging markets, particularly China, poised for a trend revaluation [5][39]. - A shift in market style is expected, favoring sectors representing industrial capital such as industrials, materials, energy, and consumer goods over those representing financial capital [5][36]. - The article suggests that the valuation of U.S. stocks may decline, with a transition towards value-oriented investments outperforming growth stocks [36][39]. Group 4: Implications for Global Capital Flows - The "Great Reset" is likely to lead to a rebalancing of global capital flows, with a potential outflow from U.S. assets as the dollar weakens [33][39]. - The article emphasizes that the depreciation of the dollar may manifest more significantly against a basket of physical assets, including commodities and strategic resources [33][34]. - Emerging markets, especially China, are expected to benefit from a weaker dollar, which could enhance local demand and attract foreign investment [39].