行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 04 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025Q4 公募基金延续低配，持股集 中度进一步提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.27 《销售延续调整态势，期待政策显效 与市场筑底 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.19 《商业用房贷款最低首付下调，地产 去库存进程加速—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.16 上海三区启动住房以旧换新，推动新房去库存 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 事件：上海启动收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房工作 2 月 2 日，中国建设银行支持上海市第一批收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房项 目签约活动举行。这批被收购的二手住房，将被用作保障性租赁住房，满足新市 民、青年人 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the new housing market in China weakened further, with sales revenue declining by 11.2% year-on-year in the first 11 months, and the sold area decreasing by 8.1%, while average prices fell by 3.3%, which was worse than Fitch Ratings' previous forecast of a 7% decline in sales revenue, 5% in sold area, and 2% in average price [1][2] - The weak performance of the housing market reflects economic downturn, pressure on the labor market, and expectations of further price declines, leading to low buyer confidence, with policy support only temporarily easing market sentiment [1][2] - The speed of price decline in the second-hand housing market is faster than that of new homes, especially in first-tier cities, indicating that new home prices may face greater pressure to remain competitive against second-hand homes [1][2] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - The area of completed but unsold residential properties has decreased for nine consecutive months, but as of the end of November, it was only about 1% lower than at the end of 2024, while new housing sales area declined by 8.1% year-on-year, indicating that inventory reduction is lagging behind sales shrinkage [1][2] - High residential inventory may continue to exert downward pressure on housing prices in 2026 [1][2] - As of November 25, 2025, national land transaction volume decreased by 27% year-on-year, although transaction volume in first-tier cities increased by 36% [3] Group 3: Company Ratings - Fitch Ratings adjusted the outlook for China Jinmao Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and Beijing Capital Development Holdings (Group) Co., Ltd. from negative to stable, reflecting strong sales performance from China Jinmao and clearer business transformation direction for the Capital Group [2][3] - Fitch downgraded the rating of mixed-ownership real estate company Vanke Co., Ltd. by several notches to 'RD' due to its failure to repay the principal and interest of domestic bonds after the original grace period expired [2][3]