昨天在小区门口遇到邻居王叔，他拿着手机急匆匆地问我："小李，你看这条消息，说房价要大跌了，我现 在卖房还来得及吗？"我接过手机一看，又是那些刺激眼球的标题。说实话，每隔一段时间就会有这样的消 息在朋友圈疯传，搞得大家人心惶惶。 我们不妨静下心来，用理性的眼光看看当前的房地产市场到底发生了什么变化。作为长期关注房地产的我 们，有责任把真实的情况告诉大家，而不是被那些夸张的标题牵着鼻子走。 说起2025年的房地产市场，我们确实看到了不少变化。从各地传来的消息显示，不同城市的房价表现差异很 大。有的地方确实出现了下调，有的地方依然坚挺，有的地方甚至还有小幅上涨。这种分化现象，恰恰说明 了市场的复杂性。 我们先来看看具体的数据。根据公开的统计信息，截至2025年10月，全国70个大中城市中，新房价格环比下 降的城市数量确实在增加。这个现象不是突然出现的，而是一个逐步演进的过程。从年初开始，我们就能观 察到这种趋势的苗头。 让我们来分析一下导致这种变化的三个主要趋势。第一个趋势是供需关系的调整。经过多年的发展，很多城 市的商品房库存量明显增加，而购房需求却相对稳定甚至有所下降。这种供大于求的局面，自然会对房价产 生影响 ...

住建部定调楼市未来：第四次拐点浮现，房产新周期即将开启 国家统计局2025年10月发布的数据直观呈现了市场拐点特征，楼市"止跌回稳"的积极势头正在巩固。价格端方面，70个大中城市商品住宅价格环比降幅呈 现结构性收窄，二线城市新建商品住宅同比降幅收窄0.1个百分点，三线城市二手住宅价格环比降幅虽略有扩大，但核心城市价格趋稳迹象明显——上海 10月新建商品住宅价格环比上涨0.3%，深圳、成都等4城二手房价格打破连续7个月下跌态势。成交端数据更显积极，2025年1-10月全国新建商品房销售面 积71982万平方米，虽同比仍有下降，但10月末商品房待售面积较9月末减少322万平方米，住宅待售面积减少292万平方米，显示去库存进程持续推进；而 2024年10月以来新建商品房交易网签面积连续多月同比、环比双增长的态势，进一步印证了市场需求的逐步释放。供给端同样出现积极变化，1-10月住宅 投资56595亿元，虽同比下降13.8%，但房企竣工面积同比增长22%，资金从"拿地扩张"转向"提质增效"的转型趋势明显。 3. 供给革新："好房子"标准引领，存量盘活打开新空间 住建部在2025年明确提出"好房子"建设标准，标志着房地 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guandian Index indicates a significant decline in residential rental prices in major cities, with the average rental price dropping to 29.78 yuan per square meter per month in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 4.39% and a year-on-year decline of 8.91% [1][4] - The rental market is expected to remain under pressure in the short term due to seasonal effects, while medium to long-term prospects may improve as the supply of affordable rental housing stabilizes and demand in core cities continues to grow [1][4] Rental Market Performance - In October 2025, the rental price in 50 key cities fell to 29.78 yuan per square meter per month, with 86% of cities experiencing month-on-month declines and 90% seeing year-on-year drops [4][8] - The rental market is characterized by a dual impact of traditional seasonal downturns and supply-demand structural adjustments, leading to ongoing downward pressure on rental prices [4][8] Policy and Regulation - New regulations introduced in Shanghai aim to standardize the management of affordable rental housing projects, establishing a comprehensive management system to ensure compliance from project selection to operation [2][3] - The focus of recent policies has been on guiding market supply, enhancing management standards, and ensuring the protection of tenant rights [1][2] Company Dynamics - Leading rental companies are experiencing growth in scale, with a shift towards diversified expansion strategies. For instance, companies like Bole and Vanke are increasing their operational capacities while adapting to market changes [8][9] - The rental market is seeing a trend towards refined operations rather than mere scale expansion, with companies focusing on efficiency and profitability [9] REITs and Capital Market - The performance of publicly listed rental housing REITs shows resilience, with total revenue of 195 million yuan and net profit of approximately 56.6 million yuan in Q3 2025, indicating a growth of 8.33% and 5.64% respectively [16][18] - The average occupancy rate of these REITs stands at 95.97%, supported by stable demand in core urban areas [18][20] - The capital market for housing rentals is evolving, with various financial instruments being utilized to enhance funding efficiency, reflecting a shift towards a dual-driven model of policy and capital [22][23]

住房租赁市场正在进入传统淡季。安居客数据显示，10月随着新增租赁需求减弱，整体挂牌租 金环比小幅下降。 随着租金水平的回落，租房低门槛、高灵活度、高性价比等优势日益凸显。该机构数据显示， 在全国在线找房的业务场景中， 租房的用户群体规模逐渐超过新房的找房用户量。 与此同时，房源分散、租赁关系不稳定、租购权益不对等情况仍然存在，租赁市场各类乱象仍 时有出现。《住房租赁条例》（下文简称《条例》）的实施为住房租赁市场规范发展注入新的 动能。 部分城市产业升级下劳动力流动放缓，叠加"职住平衡"政策下本地租房需求趋于稳定，整体需 求进入季节性低谷。 另据中指研究院数据，10月全国重点50城住宅平均月租金为34.57元/平方米，环比下跌 0.49%， 前10月50城住宅平均租金累计下跌2.45%， 跌幅较2024年同期扩大0.38个百分点。 张波认为，今年以来租金下行主要受两方面因素影响。一方面是租赁房源供给量增多。安居客 数据显示，全国40城个人房源线上新增挂牌量同比上涨超过10%，大量房源集中入市，竞争有 所加剧。部分房东为避免空置，选择主动降价。另一方面是保障性租赁住房的上市。保障性租 赁住房的租金一般会低于市场化 ...

住房租赁市场正在进入传统淡季。安居客数据显示，10月随着新增租赁需求减弱，整体挂牌租金环比小 幅下降。 随着租金水平的回落，租房低门槛、高灵活度、高性价比等优势日益凸显。该机构数据显示，在全国在 线找房的业务场景中，租房的用户群体规模逐渐超过新房的找房用户量。 与此同时，房源分散、租赁关系不稳定、租购权益不对等情况仍然存在，租赁市场各类乱象仍时有出 现。《住房租赁条例》（下文简称《条例》）的实施为住房租赁市场规范发展注入新的动能。 近日，《〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉辅导读本》（下文简称 《辅导读本》）出版，住房城乡建设部部长倪虹在其中发表署名文章《推动房地产高质量发展》。在这 篇文章中，规范发展租赁市场，培育市场化、专业化住房租赁企业，提高行业监管和服务能力，依法维 护租赁双方合法权益，被纳入"十五五"时期全面落实推动房地产高质量发展的重点任务。 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶向21世纪经济报道记者表示，相关政策的落地将有力促进住房租赁 市场高质量发展，推动加快建立租购并举的住房制度，同时也将对盘活存量资产以及培育住房租赁企业 等发挥重要作用。 "租购并举"深化 张波认为， ...

21世纪经济报道记者李莎 北京报道 中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶向21世纪经济报道记者表示，相关政策的落地将有力促进住房租赁 市场高质量发展，推动加快建立租购并举的住房制度，同时也将对盘活存量资产以及培育住房租赁企业 等发挥重要作用。 安居客数据显示，10月全国40城租赁线上需求热度环比下降14%，一线城市中北京、上海需求降幅超 8%，二线城市如天津、太原降幅逾25%。 58安居客研究院院长张波向21世纪经济报道记者表示，租房需求下降的核心原因是三季度毕业季、入职 季等传统租赁旺季结束，新增租房群体（如应届生、外来务工者）规模减少。同时，部分城市产业升级 下劳动力流动放缓，叠加 "职住平衡" 政策下本地租房需求趋于稳定，整体需求进入季节性低谷。 另据中指研究院数据，10月全国重点50城住宅平均月租金为34.57元/平方米，环比下跌0.49%，前10月 50城住宅平均租金累计下跌2.45%，跌幅较2024年同期扩大0.38个百分点。 张波认为，今年以来租金下行主要受两方面因素影响。一方面是租赁房源供给量增多。安居客数据显 示，全国40城个人房源线上新增挂牌量同比上涨超过10%，大量房源集中入市，竞争有所加剧 ...

Core Viewpoint - Banks are actively selling properties at prices significantly lower than market rates, driven by the need to manage non-performing assets and respond to economic pressures in the real estate market [1][2] Group 1: Market Context - The trend of banks selling properties is a response to increasing defaults on personal mortgage loans and real estate development loans, leading to a rise in "foreclosure properties" and "debt settlement assets" on bank balance sheets [1] - Traditional channels for disposing of these assets have become bottlenecks, with high rates of unsold foreclosure properties due to issues like unclear tax obligations and difficulties in clearing properties [1][3] Group 2: Benefits of Direct Property Sales - Direct property sales by banks can significantly enhance asset disposal efficiency and accelerate capital recovery, while also reducing legal disputes through better control of the transaction process [2] - Buyers benefit from lower prices, typically 16% to 31% below market rates, along with a transparent transaction process and access to mortgage services, addressing the challenges associated with purchasing foreclosure properties [2] Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Banks face challenges in selling properties due to a lack of professional sales teams and market experience, which may lead to inefficiencies and potential conflicts of interest [3] - The influx of low-priced properties into the market could temporarily suppress surrounding property values, as evidenced by a 4.2% drop in average transaction prices in certain areas [3] Group 4: Alternative Asset Disposal Strategies - Banks have other mature pathways for disposing of non-performing assets, such as packaging them for asset management companies (AMCs), which can leverage their expertise for more effective asset management [4] - Establishing special asset divisions or utilizing asset securitization can also help banks manage risks and share returns with investors [4] - Collaborating with local governments and quality real estate companies on projects related to housing delivery can maximize asset value while ensuring timely project completion [4]

Core Viewpoint - Banks are actively selling properties at prices significantly lower than market rates, driven by the need to manage non-performing assets and respond to economic pressures in the real estate market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Context - Recent economic downturns and deep adjustments in the real estate market have led to increased defaults on personal mortgage loans and real estate development loans, resulting in a growing scale of "foreclosure properties" and "debt settlement assets" held by banks [1]. - Traditional disposal channels for these assets have faced bottlenecks, with high rates of unsold foreclosure properties due to issues like unclear tax obligations and difficulties in clearing properties [1][3]. Group 2: Benefits of Direct Property Sales - Direct property sales by banks can significantly enhance asset disposal efficiency and accelerate capital recovery, while also reducing legal disputes through better control of the transaction process [2]. - Buyers benefit from "direct supply properties" that are generally priced 16% to 31% lower than market rates, with transparent transaction processes and access to mortgage services, addressing the challenges of full cash payments for foreclosure properties [2]. Group 3: Challenges and Risks - Banks may face challenges due to a lack of professional sales teams and market promotion experience, which could lead to inefficiencies and imbalances in cost and revenue [3]. - Potential issues with property rights and payment of property fees could result in disputes that harm the bank's reputation [3]. - The influx of low-priced properties into the market could temporarily suppress surrounding property prices, as seen in certain areas where average transaction prices have dropped [3]. Group 4: Alternative Asset Disposal Strategies - Besides direct sales, banks can utilize more mature and innovative methods for disposing of non-performing assets, such as packaging them for asset management companies (AMCs) that specialize in efficient asset disposal [4]. - Establishing "special asset divisions" or using asset securitization to attract capital market investors are also viable strategies for risk sharing and maximizing returns [4]. - For properties that are difficult to sell, converting them into long-term rental apartments or affordable rental housing aligns with policy directions and helps activate assets [4]. Group 5: Long-term Strategy - The decision for banks to sell properties directly is a tactical choice aimed at quickly mitigating risks and recovering funds, but it is essential to focus on preventing transaction disputes and reputation risks [4]. - A long-term solution involves building a multi-layered, professional, and market-oriented system for disposing of non-performing assets, with banks acting as financial providers and coordinators through collaboration with AMCs, technology companies, and local governments [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing efforts and developments in China's housing sector, particularly focusing on the transition from merely providing housing to enhancing the quality of living environments during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1]. Group 1: Housing Development and Quality Improvement - During the "14th Five-Year Plan," approximately 5 billion square meters of new residential properties were sold, and over 11 million units of various types of affordable housing were constructed [1]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality development in real estate, aiming to upgrade the concept of "having a place to live" to "having a quality place to live" [1]. - The article highlights the importance of affordable rental housing projects in cities like Shanghai, where 395,000 units have been supplied, aiming to provide stability for transient populations [7]. Group 2: Case Studies of Residents - The story of Gan Youzhou, a delivery worker in Shanghai, illustrates the journey from temporary housing to a stable living situation, emphasizing the role of affordable rental housing in improving living conditions [3][5]. - In Guangzhou, the renovation of an old residential building into modern apartments showcases the city's efforts in urban renewal and improving living standards for long-term residents [8][12]. - The experience of Gao Yabin in Beijing reflects the changes in housing design and quality over the past decade, highlighting the shift towards more spacious and user-friendly living environments [14][16]. Group 3: Future Directions and Expert Insights - Experts suggest that the focus of urban development is shifting from rapid expansion to enhancing existing housing quality, with a call for a dual housing supply system that includes both rental and market options [18]. - The need for a comprehensive approach to housing that includes both affordability and quality is emphasized, with expectations for improved living conditions during the "15th Five-Year Plan" [20].

Core Insights - The establishment of a dual rental and purchase housing system in China is accelerating, with the activation of existing assets playing an increasingly important role [1][3] - The "Boyu Yanyuan Old Palace Core Community" project, a pilot for affordable rental housing, has officially opened in Daxing District, Beijing, marking a significant step in utilizing collective land for housing [1][4] Company Overview - The "Jianwan Fund," a joint venture between China Construction Bank and Vanke Group, acquired the land for the project and is responsible for its operation through Vanke's rental brand, "Boyu" [1][3] - The project includes 1,505 affordable rental units, with rental prices set at 90% of the surrounding market rates, demonstrating a commitment to providing affordable housing options [3][4] Industry Context - Daxing District is a pilot area for the reform of collective operating construction land, and the project is part of a broader initiative to increase the supply of affordable rental housing in response to the dual rental and purchase housing policy [3][9] - Vanke has been a pioneer in the rental housing sector, successfully implementing a sustainable business model that combines asset activation, service enhancement, and capital closure [3][9] - The company operates 280,000 rental units nationwide, with a nearly 95% occupancy rate, solidifying its position as the largest provider of concentrated apartments in China [8][9]