新技术周期
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中金:看好锂电新一轮上行周期启动 储能有望成为核心“推手”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-26 00:00
Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates a trend reversal in the lithium battery sector starting from 2025, driven by stabilization in the supply chain prices and improvements in supply-demand structure, with energy storage expected to be a key growth driver [1][2] Group 1: Lithium Battery Market Outlook - From 2025 onwards, the lithium battery market is expected to enter a new growth cycle, with energy storage becoming a core growth point [1] - The domestic market for new energy vehicles is anticipated to benefit from increased battery capacity in passenger vehicles and the expansion of new usage scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [1] - In Europe, the demand is expected to accelerate with the initiation of a new car cycle [1] Group 2: Energy Storage Demand - The introduction of capacity pricing policies in various provinces in China is expected to enhance the economic viability of independent energy storage, with demand in 2026 likely to exceed expectations [1] - In the U.S. market, demand is anticipated to surge in the second half of 2025 due to tariff impacts, with AIDC storage demand expected to contribute additional growth post-2026 [1] Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Price Trends - A turning point in supply-demand dynamics is expected by 2025, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity, resulting in price increases in energy storage cells and related components [1] - CICC forecasts that capital expenditures in the battery sector will remain high in 2026, aligning with demand growth, while new capacity in the materials sector is expected to be limited, leading to improved utilization rates [1] Group 4: New Technology Developments - The solid-state battery technology is entering a critical phase, with full solid-state sulfide batteries expected to reach pilot production by 2025, and semi-solid oxide/polymer composite routes accelerating [2] - By 2026, small-scale production and trial installations of full solid-state sulfide batteries are anticipated, with advancements in process routes and material systems [2] Group 5: Investment Strategies - The report recommends focusing on energy storage demand exceeding expectations, which will accelerate the sector's reversal trend, highlighting lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [2] - New technologies, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries, are identified as high-growth investment directions, with continued breakthroughs in industrialization expected in 2026 [2] - The report also emphasizes the potential for value reassessment driven by policy support and the recovery of charging station construction [2]
锂电板块重点推荐:排产超预期,基本面+新技术周期向上
2025-09-01 02:01
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The lithium battery sector is experiencing an upward trend, driven by improved fundamentals and a new technology cycle, with significant investment opportunities identified [1][2][3] - The lithium battery supply chain is showing signs of recovery, with major companies reporting strong performance and stable lithium carbonate prices [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - The demand for lithium batteries is expected to improve in the second half of the year, supported by the U.S. and European markets, particularly in energy storage [1][5] - The growth of the domestic market in 2026 will largely depend on the strength of policy subsidies, with expectations for continued growth in Europe and North America [1][9][10] - Solid-state battery technology is highlighted as a key focus area, with leading manufacturers moving towards pilot and small-scale production [1][11] Market Dynamics - The second half of the year is anticipated to see increased activity in the energy storage market due to U.S. customer demand and European residential storage needs [5] - The lithium battery industry is driven by factors such as ultra-fast charging, increased vehicle range, and the global energy transition [6] - The overall performance of the lithium battery sector is expected to improve, with potential price increases in certain segments due to supply constraints [7][8] Investment Recommendations - Companies like CATL and EVE Energy are recommended as priority investment targets due to their strong market positions and potential for profit exceeding expectations [3][13] - The solid-state and semi-solid battery sectors are identified as having significant investment potential, with a focus on leading companies and those showing clear performance improvements [14] Emerging Trends - The iron-lithium sector is benefiting from new technology iterations and policies that promote healthy industry development, with leading companies achieving substantial profits [27] - The ternary materials sector is entering a recovery phase, driven by overseas demand and new application scenarios [28][29] - The solid-state battery market is expected to see rapid growth, with companies like Hong Kong Technology and Lianying Laser making significant advancements in equipment and production capabilities [24][25] Additional Important Insights - The electrolysis and lithium hexafluorophosphate sectors are currently at a low point, but demand from the energy storage sector is expected to create a balance in supply and demand [21] - The solid-state electrolyte market is primarily focused on sulfide routes, with companies ramping up production capacity to meet future demand [33] - The overall outlook for the lithium-ion battery industry is positive, with new technologies and the exit of outdated capacities expected to enhance the supply-demand balance [34]