中金公司（601995）发布研究报告称，2025年以来伴随产业链价格逐步企稳、供需结构改善，锂电底部 反转趋势显现。展望26年，看好锂电新一轮上行周期启动，储能有望成为核心"推手"。同时，以固态电 池为主线的新一轮锂电技术大周期加速迎来产业化拐点。 新一轮成长周期来临，储能有望成为核心增长点。新能源车方面，中金公司认为，国内市场受益乘用车 带电量提升和新场景持续放量，动力电池需求有望延续较高增速；欧洲市场伴随新车周期启动、需求有 望加速回升。储能方面，随着国内各省容量电价政策出台，独立储能经济性迎拐点，看好2026年国内储 能需求超预期；美国市场因关税影响2H25有所抢装，2026年后AIDC配储需求有望贡献新增量，亦有望 带动需求超预期。 供需拐点到来，价格反转趋势确立。2025年，在储能带动需求端持续超预期下，产业链供需关系进一步 改善，3Q25头部厂商几乎处于满产状态，储能电芯、6F、VC等环节迎涨价。展望2026年，中金公司预 计电池环节资本开支仍有望保持高位、但整体与需求增长匹配，材料环节新增产能整体较少、稼动率有 望进一步提升，若储能需求超预期，价格反转趋势有望延续。 新技术周期开启，固态产业化加 ...

人民财讯11月26日电，中金公司（601995）研报认为，2025年以来伴随产业链价格逐步企稳、供需结构 改善，锂电底部反转趋势显现。展望2026年，看好锂电新一轮上行周期启动，储能有望成为核心"推 手"。同时，以固态电池为主线的新一轮锂电技术大周期加速迎来产业化拐点。投资策略：1.主线一： 看好储能需求超预期，带动板块反转趋势加速。重点推荐：锂电材料(6F、VC、铁锂正极)、电池、泛 零部件；2.主线二：看好新技术作为锂电板块高斜率的投资方向，2026年产业化有望持续突破，重点关 注固态电池、钠电池及其产业链；3.主线三：看好政策加码下、充电桩建设回暖，新场景起量或产业趋 势确立带来价值重估。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，国内市场受益乘用车带电量提升和新场景持续放量，动力电池需 求有望延续较高增速；欧洲市场伴随新车周期启动、需求有望加速回升。2025年，在储能带动需求端持 续超预期下，产业链供需关系进一步改善，3Q25头部厂商几乎处于满产状态，储能电芯、6F、VC等环 节迎涨价。展望2026年，看好锂电新一轮上行周期启动，储能有望成为核心"推手"。同时，以固态电池 为主线的新一轮锂电技术大周期加速迎来产业化拐点。 2025年全固态硫化物电池产业化进入中试阶段，半固态氧化物/聚合物复合路线加速上车。展望2026 年，全固态硫化物电池有望迎来小批量量产及试装车、工艺路线、材料体系亦有望收敛。 投资建议 投资策略：1)主线一：看好储能需求超预期，带动板块反转趋势加速。重点推荐：锂电材料(6F、VC、 铁锂正极)、电池、泛零部件；2)主线二：看好新技术作为锂电板块高斜率的投资方向，26年产业化有 望持续突破，重点关注固态电池、钠电池及其产业链；3)主线三：看好政策加码下、充电桩建设回暖， 新场景起量或产业趋势确立带来价值重估。 风险因素 全球新能源车销量不及预期；全球储能装机需求不及预期；市场价格竞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a significant upward trend driven by strong demand in both traditional and energy storage sectors, with production capacity tightening and a shift from passive capacity clearance to active inventory replenishment and competition for quality capacity [3][17]. Production and Capacity - In October, battery production exceeded expectations, with a 10% month-over-month increase from September's high base, and the top 20 battery manufacturers saw production increases of over 20%, with energy storage cells accounting for more than 40% of the output [3][6]. - The average operating rate in the industry is approaching 90%, with leading manufacturers operating at full capacity and second-tier manufacturers rapidly increasing their utilization rates [4]. Component Analysis - Production changes by component include: positive electrode up 0.7%, negative electrode up 5.8%, separator up 4.3%, and electrolyte up 4.2% [5]. - The energy storage sector is identified as the strongest marginal driver, with domestic energy storage bidding exceeding 270 GWh from January to August, a nearly twofold year-on-year increase [6]. Market Performance - The overseas market is also performing well, with the U.S. adding 27.65 GWh of new energy storage from January to August, doubling year-on-year; Europe is beginning to replenish orders after destocking, and regions like the Middle East, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are also seeing growth [7]. - Domestic sales of new energy heavy trucks exceeded 100,000 units from January to August, representing a year-on-year increase of over 180%, which is driving demand for power battery installations [8]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The production capacity for energy storage cells is tightening, enhancing the bargaining power and capacity influence of leading companies [9]. - The supply side is experiencing a shortage of energy storage specification cells, with many leading battery manufacturers reporting full production lines [10]. - If new production capacity does not come online quickly, the tight supply situation may persist until mid-2026 [11]. Material Costs and Pricing - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surpassed 60,000 yuan per ton, leading to a chain reaction of price increases across electrolytes, with many companies nearing full production [11]. - The iron-lithium segment is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with the gap narrowing from 20% to around 10%, while the pricing power of leading companies remains strong [12]. - The cost pressures from rising material prices are being transmitted downstream, resulting in differentiated pricing for energy storage products [14]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to maintain high prosperity from November to December, with the first quarter of next year likely to continue the trend of "not dull in the off-season," and limited month-over-month declines in production [15]. - The industry is entering a new proactive upward cycle, with market expectations for growth in the lithium battery supply chain, particularly in the energy storage sector, being revised upward for 2026 [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a price rebound in hexafluorophosphate lithium (6F), driven by supply-demand dynamics and increasing demand from energy storage and automotive sectors [2][3][6]. Supply Side - The current effective monthly production capacity for 6F is approximately 24,500 tons, while demand in September is expected to exceed 23,000 tons, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [5]. - Major companies dominate the market, with the top three firms accounting for over 70% of production [5]. - The price of 6F has increased from 50,000 yuan/ton to 58,500 yuan/ton since August, reflecting a rise of over 15% [4]. - The cost increase in lithium carbonate contributes to a cost increment of about 3,000-5,000 yuan/ton, but the actual price increase of 6F exceeds this range, indicating a shift in processing fee dynamics [5]. - Limited new production capacity is expected, with leading companies operating at over 80% utilization [7]. - A significant cost gap of over 30,000 yuan/ton exists between leading and smaller firms, suggesting potential for further processing fee increases [7]. Demand Side - The surge in demand for energy storage batteries has been a key driver for the price increase, with production rates hitting historical highs since July [6]. - The upcoming fourth quarter is anticipated to see increased demand from both domestic and international automotive companies, further boosting the need for 6F [6]. - Industry estimates predict that demand for energy storage and power batteries will maintain a growth rate of over 20% in 2025, providing long-term support for 6F [6]. Future Outlook - The supply-demand balance for 6F is expected to tighten, with a potential supply gap emerging by Q4 2026, which could lead to stronger price elasticity [8]. - Processing fees for 6F are projected to rise by 2,000 yuan/ton starting in Q4 2025, with further increases of 5,000-20,000 yuan/ton anticipated in 2026, indicating a recovery in performance and potential for growth [7].