证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 市场震荡成长背离，调结构、切大盘 ——A 股市场运行周报第 82 期 ❑ 下周行情展望 随着地缘冲突持续发酵，通胀预期随着油价上涨而升温，全球金融市场明显承压。 考虑到当前中东局势演化的复杂性，以及全球资产价格波动的聚集性，我们预计近 期 A、H 股仍有震荡调整的需求。其中，A 股权重指数（如上证指数、沪深 300） 由于 1 月中旬以来持续震荡整理，当前调整结构逐步充分，或在 3 月中旬以后逐 步企稳；相比之下，部分成长指数（如中证 500、中证 1000、国证 2000）由于近 期出现日线 MACD 顶背离，加之去年以来涨幅较大，财报季或面临业绩压力，从 技术结构看或在 4 月底以后企稳；H 股之中，恒生科技指数本周在 500 天线附近 止跌反弹，但是前期下跌速度较快，近期仍有震荡整固、二次确认的需求。虽然近 期 A、H 股波动较大，但拉长周期到季度来看，我们依旧看好"系统性慢牛"机会。 配置方面，基于"地缘发酵全球震荡，指数分化均需调整"的判断，我们建议：择 时方面，中线维持当前仓位不变，等待大盘调整结束，期间考虑控制组合整体弹性。 行业方面，银行指数调整 ...

Core Insights - The market is experiencing wide fluctuations, with some indices showing signs of divergence. A and H shares are expected to undergo further adjustments due to the complex evolution of the Middle East situation and global asset price volatility. The A-share weighted index is gradually stabilizing after sufficient structural adjustments, while some growth indices may stabilize after April due to significant gains and earnings pressure from the reporting season [1][4][44] Weekly Market Overview - The market saw wide fluctuations from March 2 to March 6, with major indices mostly retreating. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 fell by 0.93%, 1.54%, and 1.07% respectively. Growth indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 dropped by 3.44%, 3.64%, and 3.53%, showing daily MACD divergence [11][42] - The energy sector, both traditional and renewable, showed strong performance, while technology sectors faced declines. Traditional energy stocks like oil and coal rose by 8.06% and 3.79%, while renewable energy stocks like electric equipment increased by 0.55%. In contrast, technology-related sectors such as media, computing, and electronics saw declines of 6.98%, 5.29%, and 5.07% respectively [12][43] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.62 trillion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous week. The main futures contracts were mostly in a state of contango, indicating a positive market sentiment [19][28] Fund Flows - As of March 5, the margin trading balance was 2.65 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous week, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 10.28%. The stock ETF saw a net inflow of 13.56 billion yuan, with the most significant inflow in the metals sector ETF [28][33] Valuation Insights - The dynamic valuation model indicates that the overall market index valuations are reasonable, while the ChiNext index is relatively undervalued. As of March 6, the PE-TTM for the Shanghai Composite Index was 17.12, at the 99.6 percentile, while the ChiNext index was at 41.71, at the 46.08 percentile [36][39]