——指数化投资周报 20251125 ⚫ 产品成立募集情况： 产品成立方面，最近一周，南方恒生科技 ETF、南方中证港股通高股息投资 ETF 等 4 只 ETF 产品上市；鹏华恒生科技 ETF、华夏标普港股通低波红利 ETF、易方达中证 A500 红 利低波动 ETF 等 19 只产品成立。 募集方面，未来一周 14 只指数产品结束募集，8 只指数产品将开始募集。结束募集的指 数产品包括兴银国证新能源车电池 ETF 联接 A 和广发中证智选高股息策略 ETF 联接 A 等 14 只产品，开始募集的指数产品包括大成中证 800 指数增强 A、广发中证全指食品 ETF 等 8 只产品。 申报方面，最近一周共计 29 只指数产品进行申报，指数产品申报火热。近期新申报主题 基金占比较高，其中，易方达、鹏华等多家基金公司集中申报科创芯片方向 ETF，共计 7 只相关 ETF 本周申报。广发、易方达两家在最近一周同时申报了上证科创板芯片设计主 题 ETF 和上证科创板芯片 ETF 两只芯片方向产品。 相关研究 - 证券分析师 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a "good start" after the National Day holiday, with major indices generally rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index successfully breaking through 3900 points, reaching a nearly ten-year high [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.65 trillion, an increase of 471.8 billion compared to the previous trading day, indicating active market sentiment and high participation from funds [2] Sector Performance - The market displayed a clear structural trend, with funds concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, particularly gold, rare earths, and copper, as well as controllable nuclear fusion (nuclear power) [3] - Conversely, the film and tourism sectors generally declined due to the fading holiday effect and other factors [4] Regulatory Changes - A significant announcement was made regarding the adjustment of the financing and securities lending margin ratio for SMIC and Bawen Storage stocks to zero, effective from October 9, 2025 [5] - This adjustment is not a special treatment for individual stocks but rather a risk control measure established by the stock exchange [7] - The implications include a restriction on the ability to finance these stocks, which may reduce market buying pressure and exert short-term downward pressure on stock prices. This led to a shift in market sentiment, particularly affecting SMIC, a heavyweight in the semiconductor sector, causing a chain reaction in other stocks within the sector [8] Investment Strategies - Historically, the fourth quarter tends to favor stable low-valuation and early-cycle sectors, provided two conditions are met: a steady recovery in the natural economic cycle and significant macro or policy narratives supporting expectations for the following year [10][11][12] - In years with active industry tracks but limited macroeconomic highlights, fourth-quarter stock prices often provide stronger guidance for the following year's performance [13] - Current trends in sectors such as optical modules, PCB, innovative pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous metals remain healthy, although innovative pharmaceuticals are currently in a consolidation phase [14] - The historical pattern since 2012 indicates that a period of consolidation does not necessarily signal the end of a trend, as long as the industry trend remains intact [15] - Other sectors with high overlap, such as automotive parts, robotics, power grid equipment, consumer electronics, and dividend assets, have recently shown stagnation [16]

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market experienced a significant net inflow of over 14.3 billion yuan, with the Sci-Tech Chip Index leading the inflows, reflecting strong market enthusiasm and performance in the A-share market [2][6][7]. Market Performance - On August 29, the A-share market closed with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points, marking a 10-year high [2]. - The Sci-Tech Chip Index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 50%, making it one of the best-performing sectors recently [2][7]. ETF Market Overview - As of August 29, the total scale of the stock ETF market reached 4.26 trillion yuan, with a total of 1,190 ETFs [7]. - On the same day, the stock ETF market saw an increase of 1.3546 billion shares, translating to a net inflow of approximately 14.346 billion yuan [7]. Sector-Specific Inflows - The industry-themed ETFs and Hong Kong stock market ETFs had the highest net inflows, amounting to 15.241 billion yuan and 3.907 billion yuan, respectively [7]. - The Sci-Tech Chip Index specifically recorded a net inflow of 3.037 billion yuan on August 29 [7]. Notable ETF Flows - The top ETFs by net inflow included: - Sci-Tech Chip ETF: 1.385 billion yuan - Securities ETF: 1.282 billion yuan - Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF: 1.062 billion yuan [8]. - Other notable inflows included nearly 1 billion yuan into the Artificial Intelligence ETF and 0.38 billion yuan into the Sci-Tech Entrepreneurship ETF [9]. Outflows from Broad-Based ETFs - On August 29, broad-based ETFs experienced a net outflow of 6.554 billion yuan, with the Shanghai 50 ETF leading the outflows at 2.445 billion yuan [11][12]. - Other ETFs with significant outflows included the Double Innovation ETF and the CSI 500 ETF, with outflows of 0.973 billion yuan and 0.720 billion yuan, respectively [12][13]. Future Outlook - Analysts from E Fund and Galaxy Fund express optimism for the A-share market in September, citing stable domestic economic growth and favorable liquidity conditions [14].

Group 1 - The performance of public funds is recovering, with passive index funds showing an average net value growth of over 50% in the past year, particularly in financial technology themes which saw increases of up to 180% [2] - Active equity funds also demonstrated strong performance, with average returns of 47.56% for active stock funds and 46.64% for mixed equity funds over the past year, indicating a positive turnaround in their three-year performance [2] - Public Fund of Funds (FOF) products achieved an average return of 21.43% in the past year, with nearly 20 products experiencing net value growth exceeding 50% [2] Group 2 - The new fund issuance market is gradually warming up, with monthly increases in new fund issuance observed throughout the year, peaking at 1,234 million units in June and 960 million units in August [3] - The proportion of active stock and mixed funds in total new fund issuance rose from 34% in January to 59% in August, reflecting a recovery trend in the market [3] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities reports that funds face redemption pressure after returning to breakeven, leading to a "smile curve" effect, where significant net subscriptions may occur if funds experience a pullback of over 5% followed by a recovery within a month [4]

Market Overview - The market experienced a strong upward trend last Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3,800 points [1] - The computing power sector saw a significant rally, with chip stocks collectively rising and AI hardware stocks rebounding [1] ETF Market Activity - On August 22, the Southern CSI 500 ETF saw an increase of 729 million shares, with a net inflow of 5.012 billion yuan; the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF increased by 616 million shares, with a net inflow of 2.729 billion yuan; and the China Merchants CSI AAA Technology Innovation Corporate Bond ETF increased by 20 million shares, with a net inflow of 1.979 billion yuan [1][2] - Conversely, the Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF experienced a reduction of 3.875 billion shares, with a net outflow of 4.932 billion yuan; the E Fund SSE STAR 50 ETF decreased by 1.083 billion shares, with a net outflow of 1.348 billion yuan; and the Guolian An CSI All-Index Semiconductor ETF saw a decrease of 950 million shares, with a net outflow of 1.205 billion yuan [2] Top ETFs by Net Inflow - As of August 22, the top 20 ETFs by net inflow included the Bosera CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond ETF with a net inflow of 10.679 billion yuan, and the Fortune CSI Hong Kong Internet ETF with a net inflow of 9.072 billion yuan [4] - The overall market ETF shares totaled 27,907.94 billion shares, with a total scale of 49,663.17 billion yuan as of August 22 [4] Sector Performance - The financial sector had the largest increase in ETF shares, with 24 funds tracking it; the largest thematic increase was in the CSI Sub-Segmented Chemical Industry, with 4 funds tracking it [4] - The highest yielding index was the Sci-Tech Chip Index, which rose by 10.05%, with 8 funds tracking it [4]

Group 1 - The article highlights the active issuance of new funds in the market, with 39 new funds launched between July 7 and July 11, including 31 on July 7 alone [2][4] - Equity funds remain the dominant category, with 17 new equity funds launched on July 7, including 6 active equity funds and 11 ETFs and linked funds [4][6] - The issuance of bond funds is also notable, particularly with 10 new sci-tech bond ETFs, 7 of which sold out in just one day, indicating strong demand [3][8] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the growing interest in growth-style products, particularly in sectors like AI, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to an increase in the issuance of related funds [3][4] - The total management scale of public REITs has surpassed 200 billion, with 68 listed products as of June 30, making it the largest market in Asia [9][10] - Two new REITs were launched, with significant oversubscription during the offline subscription phase, indicating strong investor interest [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that 17 equity star advisory portfolios collectively reported negative returns over the past month, with only 8 maintaining positive returns in the first four months of the year [1][2] - The top three performing advisory portfolios have shifted their strategies towards defensive positions, increasing allocations in consumer sectors and undervalued assets, reflecting differing responses to market volatility [1][2] - The average return of the 17 equity star advisory portfolios was 0.22%, with the best-performing portfolio, "Yinhua Tianji - Qiaoqiao Ying," leading with a return of 7.65% in the first quarter, focusing on hard technology, medical healthcare, and basic consumer sectors [2][3] Group 2 - The "Yinhua Tianji - Qiaoqiao Ying" portfolio made adjustments in late April, increasing its allocation to consumer sectors while balancing technology categories, and reducing the proportion of index funds [2][3] - The "Jihua Jinqu" portfolio also made adjustments in late April, reducing exposure to bonds and low-volatility assets while increasing investments in undervalued sectors like pharmaceuticals and real estate [3][4] - The "Zhongou Super Stock All-Star Portfolio" conducted a rebalancing in early April, maintaining an overweight position in growth styles while optimizing specific holdings due to macroeconomic uncertainties [4] Group 3 - The global asset direction advisory portfolios showed significant performance divergence, with an average return of approximately -0.62% over the past month, and only 9 out of 27 portfolios reporting gains [4][5] - The "Guotai Jinqi Global Allocation Portfolio" achieved the highest return of 11.84% in the first four months, focusing on the Hong Kong stock market and sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and gold [5] - The "Time Traveler Portfolio" completed its first rebalancing since 2025 in late April, shifting from high-volatility tech investments to lower-volatility index funds due to anticipated increases in U.S. stock market volatility [5]